Resizing of real labour force in rural areas in the context of occupational mobility - Romanian case...

Resizing of real labour force Resizing of real labour force

in rural areas in the context in rural areas in the context of occupational mobility of occupational mobility

-- Romanian case studyRomanian case study - -Monica Mihaela TUDOR

Institute of Agricultural Economics, Bucharest, ROMANIA

20-21st October 2011, Dijon

Argument

The size and characteristics of the labour force in rural areas are conditioned, besides other

factors, by the phenomenon of temporary occupational migration. The occupational

migration of the population with the domicile in the Romanian rural area has many and deep

economic and social implications

This phenomenon extracts a significant part of population from the rural labour market which,

potentially, could offer their labour force.


Size of emigration phenomenon

• At present, 2.5 million - 2.7 million Romanians are on the territory of other EU Member States (OECD Report on World Migration, 2010)

• ≈ 50% of the Romanians who migrate for work

come from the rural areas (according to the estimations of the Applied Economy Group - Romania)

• About 4.5 million active people have the domicile in the rural area

↓↓↓↓OverOver 1 / 3 of the 1 / 3 of the active populationactive population form Romaninan rural form Romaninan rural

area area is working abroadis working abroad


Temporary out - migration for job, by county (2002)

Source: D. Sandu, Tipologia culturala a satelor Romaniei, 06.09.2007


Main lines of the presentation

Defining the concept “Real disposable labour force”(DALFI)

Results of testing this concept in 4 pilot rural communities

- based on field surveys in four pilot rural communities from Romania, representative for the four typologies of circulatory migration to foreign countries (according to the classification proposed by Dumitru Sandu):

- with maximum circulatory migration experience (+ 30 ‰ were involved in circulatory out-migration for job)

- with medium circulatory migration experience (20-30 ‰)

- with incipient circulatory migration experience (10-20 ‰)

- with no circulatory migration experience (under 10 ‰)


Defining the concept of “Real disposable labour force”

(DALFI) -1-

ACTIVE POPULATION from the economic point of view (according to LFS) includes all active persons whose usual

place of residence is in a certain territory, who supply labour for the production of goods and services during the reference

period, regardless if they are working away for less than 6 months

BUT not all the active persons at a certain territory (according to LFS definition) are effectively available to respond to the labour

force demand from the local/regional economic operators, as part of the active population is working:

-on daily, weekly commuting basis in other locality from the country

- on the basis of contractual arrangements shorter than 6 months in a foreign country



(DALFI) - 2 -

...... so......

The persons of working age, resident in Romania, but The persons of working age, resident in Romania, but who left to foreign countries for less than 6 months, are who left to foreign countries for less than 6 months, are registered in the active population category in Romaniaregistered in the active population category in Romania

The persons of working age, resident in the (rural) The persons of working age, resident in the (rural) locality X, are considered as locality X, are considered as local labour forcelocal labour force even even

though they carry out their activity in other (urban or though they carry out their activity in other (urban or rural) localityrural) locality

That is why, by DALFI we intend to propose a new That is why, by DALFI we intend to propose a new statistical methodology and indicator that estimates the statistical methodology and indicator that estimates the

real disposable labour forcereal disposable labour force, , that force which is available for entrepreneurs and their that force which is available for entrepreneurs and their

plansplans in a in a certaincertain territory territory



(DALFI) -3-Labour Force Survey definition

ACTIVE POPULATIONACTIVE POPULATION from the economic point of view includes

all active persons whose usual place of residence is in a certain territory, who supply labour for

the production of goods and services during the reference

period (week), regardless if they regardless if they areare working away for less than 6 working away for less than 6

monthsmonths

ACTIVE POPULATION (ACTIVE POPULATION (LFS)LFS) = Employed population + The Unemployed ILO

DALFI definition

REAL ACTIVE POPULATIONREAL ACTIVE POPULATION from the economic point of view includes all active persons whose usual place of residence is in a certain territory, who

supply labour for the production of goods and services during the reference period (week) and and non-resident active non-resident active population who supply labour in the population who supply labour in the

certain territorycertain territory in the reference in the reference weekweek for less than 6 months for less than 6 months

REAL ACTIVE POPULATION (DALFI)REAL ACTIVE POPULATION (DALFI) = ACTIVE POPULATION (ACTIVE POPULATION (LFS)LFS) -– – active resident population who active resident population who supply labour in other territory supply labour in other territory (commune, town or abroad) in the (commune, town or abroad) in the reference weekreference week ++ non-resident active population + non-resident active population who supply labour in the certainwho supply labour in the certain territory, territory, in the reference week in the reference week


Field survey areasMap of temporary out - migration for job, by county, 2002

Source: D. Sandu, Tipologia culturala a satelor Romaniei, 06.09.2007

maximum circulatory migration experience

medium circulatory migration experience

no circulatory migration experience

incipient circulatory migration experience


Who left, who remained in the village ?Structure by ages of the population from sample by the place of activity

related to place of residence, in the reference week

Results of the field surveys“Real disposable labour force” (DALFI)

0

10

20

30

40

50

6070

80

90

100

%

in thecommune

in othercommune

in town in othercountry

Total

>65 years

45-65 years

30-44 years

15-29 years

<15 years

Source: Capacities Project – DALFI 2008/2010, coordinator IEA (field surveys in 4 representative communes from the point of view of the intensity of the experience in migration abroad – September 2009)



Who left, who remained in the village ?Educational structure of the population from sample by the place of activity

related to place of residence, in the reference week

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% in

to

tal p

op

.

in thecommune

in othercommune


Total

higher education

post highscholl or technical foremeneducation

highschool (9-12 grades)

vocational, complementary orapprenticeship education (9-10 grades)

secondary school (5-8 grades)

primary school (1-4 grades)

no schooling




Who left, who remained in the village ?Structure of the population from sample by the participation to the

economic activity and by the place of activity related to place of residence, in the reference week

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% in

tota

l pop

.

in thecommune

in othercommune


Total

non-economicallyactive persons

economically activepersons



Structure of the economically active population by the place of activity, in the referene week

Results of field surveys“Real disposable labour force” (DALFI)

Economically active population with the domicile in the households included in sample, out of which: 100.0 100.0 100.

- % of active persons permanently present in the commune 37.7 37.7 37.7

- % of persons working in another commune 4.0 4.0 -

- % of persons working in another town 26.4 26.4 -

- % of persons working in a foreign country under occupational arrangements shorter than 6 months 4.6 4.6 -

- % of persons working in a foreign country under occupational arrangements longer than 6 months 27.3 - -

Economically active population with the domicile in the households included in sample, out of which 100

Total active population according to LFS definitions 72.7

REAL ACTIVE POPULATION (DALFI)REAL ACTIVE POPULATION (DALFI) at commune level 37.7




Structure of the economically active population by the place of activity related to place of residence

0

20

40

60

80

100

% in

active

po

p.

in thecommune

in othercommune


Total

other active persons

unemployed

underground worker

farmer

self-employed in non-agricultural activitiesemployer

employee




0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% in

em

plo

ym

en

t

in the commune in othercommune

in town in other country

health and social assistance

education

public administration

real estate

financial intermediations

transport and storage

hotels and restaurants

trade

construction

industry

sylviculture and hunting

agriculture

Employed population structure from samples of the pilot communes by the place of activity, in the reference week

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total


ConclusionsInfluences (quantitative and qualitative) on

real disposable labour force

- Generally, the younger population of working age (15 – 44 years) opt for the occupational migration solution

- The largest part of the rural population included in the circulatory migration flows for work has better education

and qualification

•The detailed study of the characteristics and size of the real available labour force in rural

areas (and not only …)

•The need for the scientific substantiation of the statistical measurement methodology of the real

disposable labour force


Monica Mihaela Tudor Monica Mihaela Tudor Romanian Academy - Institute of Agricultural EconomicsRomanian Academy - Institute of Agricultural Economics

Macroeconomics Department, Calea 13 Septembrie 13, sector 5, 050711 Bucharest, RomaniaMacroeconomics Department, Calea 13 Septembrie 13, sector 5, 050711 Bucharest, Romania

[email protected][email protected]

Resizing of real labour force in rural areas in the context of occupational mobility - Romanian case...

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