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Research Into The Economics And Deployment of SMRs –In The Context Of A UK Low Carbon Energy System

New And Old Nuclear Nations Workshop – Khalifa University - 18th May 2016

Mike Middleton – Energy Technologies Institute


Presentation Structure

Introduction to the ETI• The Energy Technologies Institute - what do we do?• Nuclear in a UK low carbon 2050 energy system• “Large” Nuclear – deployment constraints• Finding a UK niche for small nuclear

ETI’s recent projects and analysis – Nuclear Insights October 2015• Power Plant Siting Study• Alternative Nuclear Technologies Study• ESME Sensitivity Analysis For Nuclear

Current work on preparing to deploy a first SMR in the UK• Siting options for the first SMRs• Engineering and cost estimation studies related to CHP and different cooling systems• Enabling activities in the first 5 years of a programme to deploy the first SMR in the UK


Introduction to the ETI organisation

• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government

Delivering...

• Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy

• Shared risk ETI programme associate

ETI members


What does the ETI do?

System level strategic planning

Technology development & demonstration

Delivering knowledge &

innovation


Typical ESME Outputs

EnergySystemModellingEnvironment


2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt C

O2/y

ear

DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4

International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2

Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.

Typical ETI Transition Scenario

Net UK CO2 Emissions


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

GW


Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors

Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup

Typical Scenario Without CCS Delay

Installed Electrical Generation Capacity


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh


Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors

Notes:•Nuclear used as base load •CCGT CCS does more load following, both summer/winter and within day

Typical Scenario

Annual Electricity Generation


UK Constraints In The Deployment Of Nuclear

Nuclear capacity in the 2050 energy system

Optimum Contribution In The Mix

Capability & Capacity To

Expand Programme

ProgrammeDelivery

Experience

Sites

Are there suitable and sufficient sites for nuclear deployment or will this become an additional constraint?


Potential For Competition For Sites Between Nuclear and New Thermal Plants With CCS

• CO2 disposal sites in Irish and North Seas• CO2 storage and transport infrastructure

expected to be located on the coast nearer the disposal sites

• New thermal plant requires CCS connection and access to suitable and sufficient cooling water

Note: the policy of the Scottish Government is not to support the deployment of new nuclear but to focus on renewables instead

Installed Capacity

Site Capacity

16 GW

40 GW ?75 GW ?

Potential coastal locations to access CCS transport and disposal infrastructure

Competition For Sites?


Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System?

Small Nuclear Large NuclearFor SMRs to be deployed in UK:• technology development to be completed• range of approvals and consents to be

secured• sufficient public acceptance of technology

deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives

• deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendorso utilities and investorso consumers & taxpayers

Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders

FID – Final Investment Decision


Containment structure

Reactor vessel

Turbine

Condenser

Generator

Steam GeneratorControl rods

Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams

1. BaseloadElectricity

1. BaseloadElectricity

2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing

Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment 3. Heat Recovery To Energise

District Heating Systems

Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK?

Containment structure

Reactor vessel

Turbine

Condenser

Generator

Steam GeneratorControl rods


2010(Historic)

2020 2030 2040 2050

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mt C

O2/y

ear


International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2

Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.

Net UK CO2 Emissions

Decarbonising Heat Is Important


Heat demand variability in 2010 – Unattractive to electrify it all

Hea

t / E

lect

ricity

(G

W)

0

50

100

150

250

200

Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10

HeatElectricity

Design pointfor a GB heat delivery system

Design pointfor a GB electricity delivery system

GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildingsR. Sansom, Imperial College

Heat demand

Electricity demand

Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging


ETI Projects Delivered

Power Plant Siting Study

• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints

• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS

• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies

• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear

• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following

competitive open procurement process

System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies• Develop a high level functional requirement

specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing

• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors

• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following

competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to

determine attractiveness of such a “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system


So What Have We Learned?

• Power Plant Siting Study• System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies• ETI ESME Scenario and Sensitivity Studies For Nuclear


Siting Data Applied In ESME

Capacity constraints applied in ESME


• Almost 50 GB urban conurbations with sufficient heat load to support SMR energised heat networks

• Would theoretically require 22 GWe CHP SMR capacity

Future Heat Networks


Distribution Of SMR Site Capacity

SMR Capacity (GWe)By Cooling Water Source

SMR Capacity (GWe)By Regional Location To Meet Demand

SMR Capacity (GWe)By Distance From Potential District Heating Network

SMR site capacity from the Power Plant Siting Study -Further potential locations likely to be found; the limit has not been explored


Assumptions: Prices


Cost Reduction Model - Factory & Learner

Target CAPEX for a first fleet of SMRs providing baseload electricity is challenging


Target CAPEX: CHP SMR

Target CAPEX more achievable for a first fleet of SMRs as CHP Plants


Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ and without SMRs


Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available

2050 Nuclear Capacity• 1 GWe legacy (SZB)• 35 GWe Gen III+• 16 GWe CHP SMRs

SMR deployment capacity influenced by:• Speed to first UK SMR operations • Capital cost (£/kWe)


Requirement For SMR Flexible Power Delivery

Reduction in SMR summer overnight power generation in this model run

• Flexibility is likely to be important to be able to modulate power to help balance the grid• The “flexibility” here is diurnal, within a seasonal pattern• Remember also the impact from intermittent renewables and associated peak generation


Baseload Flexible Extra-flex

Electricity only SMR power plant

Baseload power (continuous full power operation

between outages)

Operated with daily shaped

power profile when required to help balance the grid

(Slightly) reducedbaseload power

with extra storage& surge capacity

Combined Heat & Power (CHP) plant

As above but with heat



ESME Analysis Results For Nuclear In UK

Large reactors optimal here

SMRs optimal here


Conclusions from published ETI insights

http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/


UK capability to support SMR deployment

StableMarket &

Regulatory Environment

UK Nuclear Industry Heritage

SMRDevelopment

Capability

PotentialSMR Support

From UK Government

Established Nuclear R&Din Academia and NNL

• Expressions of interest until 6th May

• Phase 1 dialogue late May until autumn 2016

Launch of SMR competition by UK Government:


Generic Design

Assessment

STRAIGHT AHEAD FOR

SMR DEPLOYMENT

Less than 10 years to prepare to deploy a UK Small Modular Reactor


Further ETI Projects Relevant To UK SMRs

What is the range of locations suitable for early SMR deployment and is there an obvious front runner for a First Of A Kind (FOAK) SMR site? • Power Plant Siting Study Phase 3

What are the design, cost and operational implications of committing to a plant which is CHP ready when built? What are the potential cooling system choices and economic impacts if unconstrained access to cooling water becomes more difficult?• System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies Phase 3

What are the enabling activities in the first five years of an SMR programme necessary to support potential operations of a first UK SMR by 2030?• SMR Deployment Enablers Project


Reactor UltimateHeat Sink

Turbine Hall

Balanceof

Plant

Cooling System Options

Direct Cooling

Evaporative Cooling

Air CooledCondensers

Fin FanCooling

Options to Support Local Market and Deployment

Heat OfftakeOptions

Process Heat

Desalination

District Heating

Standardise To Exploit Economies of Multiples

Scope of Design To Be Assessed Through Generic Design Assessment

Exploiting The Economies Of Multiples –UK GDA and Coping With Variants


SMR Deployment EnablersWork In Progress (3)

Scope:• Development of scope for first 5 years of a UK SMR programme• Integrated schedule for first 5 years, which could support ops by 2030• Identify necessary capability development of SMR developer/operator

Key Assumptions:• Vendor and developer/operator have already been identified at start• Developer/operator is new to the UK; UK capability generation required• The UK FOAK site is not currently included in NPS – EN6

Context compared with the UK Giga watt reactor new build programme:• Faster programme to deployment compared with Giga watt reactors• UK Government policy for SMRs still being developed• Proposition not yet commercially proven to potential investors


Work Breakdown StructureOne Page Scope Description

Per Element

Integrated Schedule

2020 2025 2030

Focus On First 5 Years

Approach To Delivering The SMR Deployment Enablers Project


Conclusions from published ETI insights (1) –More in summer 2016 – “preparing to deploy”

http://www.eti.co.uk/the-role-for-nuclear-within-a-low-carbon-energy-system/


For more information about the ETI visit www.eti.co.uk

For the latest ETI news and announcements email [email protected]

The ETI can also be followed on Twitter @the_ETI

Registered Office Energy Technologies InstituteHolywell BuildingHolywell ParkLoughboroughLE11 3UZ

For all general enquiries telephone the ETI on 01509 202020.

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