Renewables Integration and the Clean Power Plan · CPP Assumes Significant Renewable Energy...

Renewables Integration and the Clean Power Plan

August 26, 2015

www.synapse-energy.com | ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved.

Patrick Luckow

Tommy Vitolo, PhD

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Synapse Energy Economics

• Founded in 1996 by CEO Bruce Biewald

• Leader for public interest and government clients in providing rigorous analysis of the electric power sector

• Staff of 30 includes experts in energy and environmental economics and environmental compliance

• We gratefully acknowledge the Environment, Economics, & Society Institute (EESI) for sponsoring this webinar


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CPP Assumes Significant Renewable Energy Potential

• In target-setting for the Clean Power Plan, EPA assumed a quadrupling of

renewable energy production by 2030 from 2012 levels

• 70% of that growth comes from wind

• 25% comes from solar (mostly PV)

• Does this pose a challenge for the grid?

www.synapse-energy.com | ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Patrick Luckow

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How is Renewable Energy Different?

• Wind and solar fluctuate throughout the day

• Forecasts have improved significantly, but are still uncertain

• Even with full certainty, new operational challenges


PJM Renewable Dashboard

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California Spring Net Load


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Representative Hourly System Dispatch


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

(MW

)

HourNuclear Coal/Oil Gas Wind Solar Net Load

Min. Load from committed Fossil/Nuclear

Requiredevening ramping

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Minimum Loads and Operational Constraints

• Many plants have minimum power outputs between 40% and 60%, but

some new plants can go even lower (20%?) and start up faster after being

entirely offline

• Thermal and mechanical constraints

• Ramp availability: how much capacity is available to come quickly online (or

be turned down)

• A function of capacity that is online—if plants are online at 75% of their max, they have more ramp potential than if at 100%

• New plants can increase output more quickly—similar thermal and mechanical constraints


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Measures to Incorporate More Renewables: Balancing Area Cooperation

• Increase exports or imports on a finer level of temporal resolution—much of

this scheduling has historically been done at the day ahead with little

flexibility

• “Coordinated Transaction Scheduling”


PJM September 2013 CTS Proposal

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Measures to Incorporate More Renewables:Geographic Diversity of RE Resources


0

1

1 24

No

rmal

ized O

utp

ut

(%)

Hours

Single turbine output

Output of many

diverse turbines

• Resources spread over a wider area dampen major swings due to changing weather patterns

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Measures to Incorporate More Renewables: Other Measures

• At conventional thermal plants

• Improved flexibility

• At control centers (or planning)

• Better control of contracted resources

• Incremental transmission investments

• At load

• Demand response (and improving demand response products)

• Time-of-use rates


Please remember to send any questions on content during the webinar to

[email protected]

www.synapse-energy.com | ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Inte

grat

ion

Co

st (

$/M

Wh

)

Wind Penetration (Nameplate: System Capacity)

Xcel Psco (2011)

SPP-SERC (2011)

Portland GE (2013)

Nebraska (2010)

Minnesota/MISO (2006)

Idaho (2012)

EWITS (2010)

APS (2007)

CAISO/SCE (2015)

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Integration Costs: Wind Results

www.synapse-energy.com | ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. Tommy Vitolo

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Inte

grat

ion

Co

st (

$/M

Wh

)

Solar Penetration (Nameplate:Peak Load)

APS-B&V (2012)

APS-Argonne (2013)

TEP-PV (2014)

TEP-CSP (2014)

Xcel Energy (2013)

CAISO-SCE (2015)

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Integration Costs: Solar Results


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Integration Costs: Which Costs?

Wind and solar integration costs are costs incurred in operational

timeframes that can be attributed to the variability and uncertainty

introduced by wind and solar generation.


CAISO, Integration of Renewable Resources, 2007

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Integration Costs: Costs Included

Wind and solar integration costs are costs incurred in operational timeframes that can be attributed to the variability and uncertainty introduced by wind and solar generation.


• Temporal variations

• Regulation

• Load Following

• Operating reserves• Spinning

• Non-spinning

• Supplemental

• Unit commitment

• Startup and shutdown

• Day-ahead fuel procurement

• Difference in generating costs

• Transmission• Line loss variation

• Hurdle rates

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Integration Costs: Costs Excluded

Wind and solar integration costs are costs incurred in operational timeframes that can be attributed to the variability and uncertainty introduced by wind and solar generation.


• Capital costs, incurred or avoided

• Wind turbines

• Combustion turbines

• Fossil retrofits

• Transmission

• Operating costs not the result of variability or uncertainty, incurred or avoided

• Dispatch

• Losses

• Ancillary services

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Wind Integration Costs: Sensitivities

The $/MWh integration costs associated with wind and solar are sensitive to a number of inputs.


AP

S 2

00

7

CA

20

10

EWIT

S 2

01

0

ID 2

01

2

MN

20

06

MN

20

14

NE

20

10

NR

EL 2

01

2

Pac

ifiC

orp

20

14

PG

E 2

01

3

SCE

20

13

SPP

-SER

C2

01

1

Xce

lPSC

o 2

01

1

Penetration of intermittent resource

Forecast error

CO2 price forecast

Natural gas price forecast

Other capacity resources

Transmission

Hydro

Reserve requirements

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Solar Integration Costs: Sensitivities

The $/MWh integration costs associated with wind and solar are sensitive to a number of inputs.


AP

S 2

01

2

Arg

on

ne

20

13

NR

EL 2

01

2

SCE

20

13

Xce

l PSC

o 2

01

3

Penetration of intermittent resource

Variability of intermittent resource

Forecast error

Natural gas price forecast

Other capacity resources

Reserve requirements

Synapse Clean Power Plan Toolkit


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Related Resources

Renewable Integration Report and Factsheet: http://synapse-energy.com/project/renewable-

energy-integration-costs

Synapse Clean Power Plan Toolkit: http://synapse-energy.com/CleanPowerPlan

Past Clean Power Plan Webinars: http://synapse-energy.com/synapse-projects-and-webinars-

related-clean-power-plan

Consumer Costs of Low-Emissions Futures Factsheets and Reports: http://synapse-

energy.com/project/consumer-costs-low-emissions-futures

Clean Power Plan Reports and Outreach for National Association of State Utility Consumer

Advocates: http://synapse-energy.com/project/clean-power-plan-reports-and-outreach-

national-association-state-utility-consumer-advocates

Synapse Blog Posts on Clean Power Plan: http://synapse-energy.com/tags/clean-power-plan


http://synapse-energy.com/project/renewable-energy-integration-costs

http://synapse-energy.com/CleanPowerPlan

http://synapse-energy.com/synapse-projects-and-webinars-related-clean-power-plan

http://synapse-energy.com/project/consumer-costs-low-emissions-futures

http://synapse-energy.com/project/clean-power-plan-reports-and-outreach-national-association-state-utility-consumer-advocates

http://synapse-energy.com/tags/clean-power-plan

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Stay Tuned!

Synapse is offering a series of webinars related to the final Clean Power Plan

rule, updates to our compliance model, and impacts of the rule on consumer

bills.

• September 3: “Brief #3: Modeling the Final Rule”

• September 8 (tentative): “Updates to Synapse’s CP3T”


Patrick Luckow, [email protected]

Tommy Vitolo, [email protected]

Jeannie Ramey (EESI), [email protected]

Please remember to send any questions on content during the webinar to

[email protected]

www.synapse-energy.com | ©2015 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved. 23

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Renewables Integration and the Clean Power Plan · CPP Assumes Significant Renewable Energy...

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