Reliability Challenges White Paper

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Reliability Challenges White Paper

Victoria L. Ravenscroft Senior Policy Analyst

Conclusions/Results

Outreach Efforts• Policy

briefs/white papers

• Training• Standards/SARs• CUG/CIPUG• Industry/policy

forums

Work Plan Priorities

• Changing resource mix

• Retirement of conventional generation

• Integration of VER• Natural

gas/electric interdependency

• Changing load composition

• Protection system reliability

• Physical/Cyber security

• Human performance

• High impact-low frequency events

Busi

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WEC

C st

aff w

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pap

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Membership input

WIRAB input

Violations /Impact

Trends/Priorities

Annual meeting dialogue

Other input

Registered Entity Oversight

• Registration• Certification• Applicable standards• CMEP scoping

• Interconnection-wide models and data sets

• Near- and long-term planning studies

• Stability analysis

Reliability Planning

• Event Analysis• Independent BES

assessments• Operating Practices

survey(s)

Performance Analysis

Integrated Reliability Assurance Model

Conclusions/Results


briefs/white papers


forums











Busi

ness

Pla

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WEC

C st

aff w

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pap

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Membership input

WIRAB input

Violations /Impact

Trends/Priorities


Other input









survey(s)


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Reliability Challenges White Paper

• First step in operationalizing the Integrated Reliability Assurance Model

• Culmination of conversations over last 4 months

• Staff developed, now seeking stakeholder feedback

• Feeds development of Work Plan Priorities

Changing Resource Mix

Potential challenges …• Ensuring resource

adequacy

• Considering a wide range of drivers

• Accounting for system composition, e.g., resource location

2013 Capacity and Energy ProductionWestern Interconnection (U.S. only)

Retirement of Conventional Generation

Potential challenges …• Planning for hydro

limitations

• Re-evaluating nuclear’s role

• Maintaining Essential Reliability Services

• Accounting for local, state, and federal policies

2013 Added and Retired Capacity (MW)

Natural Gas-Electric Interdependencies

Potential challenges …• Understanding supply

issues

• Reconciling differences in scheduling practices

• Planning for and operating during severe weather events

2012 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector

Changing Load Composition

Potential challenges …• Managing high levels of new

types of demand, e.g., PHEV• Accounting for demand-

related policies, e.g., energy efficiency

• Leveraging demand control and reduction mechanisms, e.g., demand-side management

2012 Electricity Consumption by Sector(Western Interconnection U.S. only)

Effects of Changing Climate

Potential challenges …• Managing the operational impacts

from changes in – Temperature– Extreme weather events– Wildfires

• Planning for resource adequacy impacts

• Coping with immediate and long-term effects of drought

• Responding to policies addressing climate change

Western Climate Regions

Integration of Variable Generation

Potential challenges …• Understanding the

drivers

• Managing uncertainty

• Balancing variability

Wind and Solar Capacity Additions (MW)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

SolarWind

Balancing Variability

Potential challenges …• Planning for flexibility

• Holding Operating Reserves

• Diversifying variability

• Implementing scheduling changes

Example Wind and Solar Base-Load Ramping Scenario

34

30

26

22

18

14

10

8

6

4

2

0

Load

& N

et L

oad

(1,0

00 M

W) W

ind & Solar (1,000 M

W)

0:00

6:00

12:0

0

18:0

0

24:0

0

Distributed Generation

Potential challenges …• Managing variability• Improving visibility of DG resources• Coordinating control of DG resources• Reconciling practices and standards on response to

faults

Situational Awareness

Potential challenges …• Increasing use of real-

time tools

• Coordinating information and data exchange

• Expanding external visibility in models

• Improving consistency and quality of next-day studies

Use of Situational Awareness Tools(% Entities Surveyed in 2014)

Equipment Failure

Potential challenges …• Reducing outages

caused by equipment failure

• Minimizing the impact of equipment failures

Automatic Transmission Outages Caused by Equipment Failure

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

50

100

150

200

250

300

Protection System Reliability

Potential challenges …• Evaluating and managing

the interaction of RAS

• Ensuring proper relay settings

• Reducing relay misoperations

2013 Misoperations by Cause

Operational Practices

Potential challenges …• Evaluating trends in operational practices

• Identifying best practices

• Promoting adoption of practices across diverse entities

Cybersecurity

Potential challenges …• Securing assets and managing access • Detecting potential threats• Balancing benefits of technology with increased

exposure to cyber risks• Identifying significant vulnerabilities on

regional/Interconnection-wide basis

Physical Security

Potential challenges …• Ensuring proactive

approach to physical security

• Securing grid against a range of threats

• Implementing CIP-014-1

• Managing costs

• Addressing accessibility of assets

2011 2012 2013 Total

Physical Attack 1 2 6 9

Physical Attack – Vandalism 38 11 25 74

Suspected Physical Attack 12 22 5 39

Suspicious Activity 2 1

Total 53 35 37 125

Physical Security Electric Disturbances (DOE Form OE-417)

High-Impact Low-Frequency Events

Potential challenges …• Preventing coordinated cyber and/or physical attack• Mitigating potential impacts of geomagnetic

disturbances• Identifying potential impacts of a pandemic• Predicting and mitigating impacts of large-scale

disasters• Balancing probability v. risk in investment decisions

Impacts of State Policy and Regulation

Potential challenges …• Identifying policy and

regulatory drivers

• Ensuring policies and regulations consider reliability concerns

• Emphasizing interconnected nature of the grid

Western Climate Regions

EPA 111(d) Clean Power Plan

Potential challenges …• Evaluating the reliability impacts

• Accounting for flexibility in implementation

EPA 111(d) Compliance Building Blocks

Building Block 1: Coal Plant Efficiency

Improve the heat rate of coal-fired power plants by 6%.

Building Block 2: Increased Gas Use

Increase utilization of gas plants up to 70% capacity factor.

Building Block 3: Renewables and Nuclear

Increase renewable and nuclear generation. Delay or cancel nuclear retirements.

Building Block 4: Energy Efficiency

Increase energy efficiency to reduce demand by 1.5% per year.

Functional Model

Potential challenges …• Aligning registration with

the Functional Model

• Addressing gaps in Planning Coordinator registration

• Evaluating role of the Path Operator

• Coordinating seams issues between registered functions

Count of Selected Registered Entities in the Western Interconnection

Registered Entities #

Balancing Authority (BA) 37

Generation Operator (GOP) 241

Generation Owner (GO) 247

Load Serving Entity (LSE) 121

Planning Authority (PA) 31

Reserve Sharing Group (RSG) 3

Resource Planner (RP) 56

Transmission Operator (TOP) 65

Transmission Owner (TO) 97

Transmission Planner (TP) 47

Transmission Service Provider (TSP) 37

Workforce

Potential challenges …• Managing the workforce retirement transition• Addressing the reduction in knowledge capital• Managing cognitive overload created by increasing

volume of tools, information, etc.

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Feedback

Seeking feedback on• Challenges• Actions• In-Progress and Planned

WorkNOT seeking• Redline or editorial

changes

Website www.wecc.biz

(link on front page)

Email feedback to [email protected]

Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014

http://www.wecc.biz/

mailto:[email protected]

Integrated Reliability Assurance Model

Conclusions/Results











Busi

ness

Pla

n an

d Bu

dget

WEC

C st

aff w

hite

pap

er

Membership input

WIRAB input

Violations /Impact

Trends/Priorities


Other input









survey(s)



briefs/white papers


forums




Stakeholder Outreach

AdequacyAssessments

Contingency Analyses

Event Analysis

Policy Impact Studies

Congestion Analyses

Stability Studies

Reliability Issue

Integrated Approach to Addressing Key Reliability Issues

What are the potential impacts to RELIABILITY?

Reliability Issue

26


White Paper Feedback

Website www.wecc.biz

(link on front page)

Email feedback to [email protected]

Feedback DeadlineOctober 31, 2014

http://www.wecc.biz/

mailto:[email protected]

Reliability Challenges White Paper

Documents

Transcript of Reliability Challenges White Paper