Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the …...and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016...
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Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the national standard We have carried out a detailed statistical analysis between the results from the PIRA and PUMA tests for Year 2 and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016 national tests. In doing this, the PIRA and PUMA test raw scores of 1,150 children for PiRA and over 1,400 children for PUMA from 56 schools across the country have been linked to the scaled scores achieved by the same children in their actual national tests*. In order to describe the relationship between the Rising Stars PIRA and PUMA tests and the national test scores, a statistical technique known as linear regression was used to model the relationship between the two variables. Outputs of this analysis are provided below as tables and graphs to assist teachers in using the findings to relate their own children’s PiRA and PUMA marks to the national test scaled scores. *Please note that this will be indicative only. Other factors can influence a child’s performance on any given day. How this analysis will help you The results of this analysis provide teachers with a clear indication of the marks children are likely to need in their PIRA and PUMA tests in order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit their national tests. The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to achieve 100 or more in the national tests. Children achieving similar scores in the PIRA and PUMA tests in 2016- 2017 would therefore be operating at the national standard. The analysis correlates all PIRA and PUMA marks to the full range of scaled scores from 85 to 115 at KS1 and 80 to 120 at KS2. This analysis should concentrate efforts to help identify those currently on track to perform slightly below the 100 scaled score, so you can use your PIRA and PUMA gap analysis to highlight the areas for development/intervention.
Transcript of Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks to the …...and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016...
Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks
to the national standard
We have carried out a detailed statistical analysis between the results from the PIRA and PUMA tests for Year 2
and Year 6 and the scaled scores of the 2016 national tests.
In doing this, the PIRA and PUMA test raw scores of 1,150 children for PiRA and over 1,400 children for PUMA
from 56 schools across the country have been linked to the scaled scores achieved by the same children in their
actual national tests*.
In order to describe the relationship between the Rising Stars PIRA and PUMA tests and the national test
scores, a statistical technique known as linear regression was used to model the relationship between the two
variables. Outputs of this analysis are provided below as tables and graphs to assist teachers in using the
findings to relate their own children’s PiRA and PUMA marks to the national test scaled scores.
*Please note that this will be indicative only. Other factors can influence a child’s performance on any given day.
How this analysis will help you
The results of this analysis provide teachers with a clear indication of the marks children are likely to need in
their PIRA and PUMA tests in order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit their national tests.
The Relationship Tables show what PIRA and PUMA raw marks were achieved by children who went on to
achieve 100 or more in the national tests. Children achieving similar scores in the PIRA and PUMA tests in 2016-
2017 would therefore be operating at the national standard. The analysis correlates all PIRA and PUMA marks
to the full range of scaled scores from 85 to 115 at KS1 and 80 to 120 at KS2. This analysis should concentrate
efforts to help identify those currently on track to perform slightly below the 100 scaled score, so you can use
your PIRA and PUMA gap analysis to highlight the areas for development/intervention.
Relating your PIRA and PUMA test marks
to the national standard
Using the Relationship Tables
The Relationship Tables have been created to enable you to monitor the marks children are likely to
need in their PIRA and PUMA tests in order to achieve a scaled score of 100 or above when they sit
their national tests
The middle column shows you the child’s Estimated Scaled Score. The numbers on either side of this
are prediction and confidence intervals – this simply means they show the lowest score the child is
likely to achieve, and the highest. Because all children and all test experiences vary, it is impossible to
say that they will definitely achieve the number in the middle column – but you can be comfortable
that there is a 95% chance they will achieve a score between the lowest and highest listed in that row.
Using the Relationship Graphs
For each table there is a corresponding graph which has the PIRA or PUMA test marks plotted against
the national test scores, for easy reference. Either side of the central line are two lines directly above
and below which show the upper and lower 95% confidence limits for the estimated scaled score of
all pupils in the population.
The outer lines show a prediction with 95% confidence for individual pupil’s scaled score from their
PIRA or PUMA test mark.
PUMA 6 Autumn Test Relationship Table
National Test scores
PUMA 6 Autumn
Test mark
Lower 95%
prediction
limit
Lower 95%
confidence limit
Estimated
Scaled Score
Upper 95%
confidence limit
Upper 95%
prediction limit
1 83 91 91 92 99
2 84 91 92 92 100
3 84 92 92 93 100
4 85 92 93 93 101
5 85 93 93 94 101
6 86 93 94 94 102
7 86 94 94 95 102
8 87 94 95 95 103
9 87 95 95 96 103
10 88 95 96 96 104
11 88 96 96 97 104
12 89 96 97 97 105
13 89 97 97 98 105
14 90 97 98 98 106
15 90 98 98 99 106
16 91 98 99 99 107
17 91 99 99 100 107
18 92 99 100 100 108
19 92 100 100 100 108
20 93 100 101 101 109
21 93 101 101 101 109
22 94 101 102 102 110
23 94 102 102 102 110
24 95 102 103 103 111
25 95 103 103 103 111
26 96 103 104 104 112
27 96 104 104 104 112
28 97 104 105 105 112
29 97 105 105 105 113
30 98 105 106 106 113
31 98 106 106 106 114
32 99 106 107 107 114
33 99 107 107 107 115
34 100 107 108 108 115
35 100 108 108 108 116
36 101 108 109 109 116
37 101 109 109 109 117
38 102 109 110 110 117
39 102 110 110 110 118
40 103 110 110 111 118
41 103 111 111 111 119
42 104 111 111 112 119
43 104 112 112 112 120
44 105 112 112 113 120
45 105 112 113 113 >120
46 106 113 113 114 >120
47 106 113 114 114 >120
48 107 114 114 115 >120
49 107 114 115 115 >120
50 108 115 115 116 >120
PUMA 6 Autumn Test Relationship Graph
PUMA 6 Spring Test Relationship Table
National Test scores
PUMA 6 Spring
Test mark
Lower 95%
prediction
limit
Lower 95%
confidence limit
Estimated
Scaled Score
Upper 95%
confidence limit
Upper 95%
prediction limit
1 83 90 91 91 99
2 83 91 91 92 99
3 84 91 92 92 100
4 84 92 92 93 100
5 85 92 93 93 101
6 85 92 93 94 101
7 85 93 94 94 102
8 86 93 94 95 102
9 86 94 94 95 103
10 87 94 95 95 103
11 87 95 95 96 103
12 88 95 96 96 104
13 88 96 96 97 104
14 89 96 97 97 105
15 89 97 97 98 105
16 90 97 98 98 106
17 90 98 98 99 106
18 91 98 99 99 107
19 91 99 99 99 107
20 91 99 100 100 108
21 92 100 100 100 108
22 92 100 100 101 109
23 93 101 101 101 109
24 93 101 101 102 109
25 94 102 102 102 110
26 94 102 102 103 110
27 95 103 103 103 111
28 95 103 103 104 111
29 96 103 104 104 112
30 96 104 104 104 112
31 97 104 105 105 113
32 97 105 105 105 113
33 98 105 106 106 114
34 98 106 106 106 114
35 98 106 106 107 115
36 99 107 107 107 115
37 99 107 107 108 115
38 100 108 108 108 116
39 100 108 108 109 116
40 101 108 109 109 117
41 101 109 109 110 117
42 102 109 110 110 118
43 102 110 110 111 118
44 103 110 111 111 119
45 103 111 111 112 119
46 104 111 112 112 120
47 104 112 112 113 120
48 104 112 113 113 >120
49 105 112 113 114 >120
50 105 113 113 114 >120
PUMA 6 Spring Test Relationship Graph
PUMA 6 Summer Test Relationship Table
National Test scores
PUMA 6 Summer
Test mark
Lower 95%
prediction
limit
Lower 95%
confidence limit
Estimated
Scaled Score
Upper 95%
confidence limit
Upper 95%
prediction limit
1 83 90 91 91 98
2 83 91 91 92 99
3 84 91 92 92 99
4 84 92 92 93 100
5 85 92 93 93 100
6 85 93 93 93 101
7 86 93 93 94 101
8 86 94 94 94 102
9 87 94 94 95 102
10 87 94 95 95 103
11 88 95 95 96 103
12 88 95 96 96 104
13 89 96 96 97 104
14 89 96 97 97 105
15 90 97 97 98 105
16 90 97 98 98 106
17 91 98 98 99 106
18 91 98 99 99 106
19 91 99 99 100 107
20 92 99 100 100 107
21 92 100 100 100 108
22 93 100 101 101 108
23 93 101 101 101 109
24 94 101 102 102 109
25 94 102 102 102 110
26 95 102 103 103 110
27 95 103 103 103 111
28 96 103 104 104 111
29 96 104 104 104 112
30 97 104 105 105 112
31 97 105 105 105 113
32 98 105 105 106 113
33 98 106 106 106 114
34 99 106 106 107 114
35 99 107 107 107 115
36 100 107 107 108 115
37 100 108 108 108 116
38 101 108 108 109 116
39 101 109 109 109 117
40 102 109 109 110 117
41 102 109 110 110 118
42 103 110 110 111 118
43 103 110 111 111 118
44 103 111 111 112 119
45 104 111 112 112 119
46 104 112 112 113 120
47 105 112 113 113 120
48 105 113 113 114 >120
49 106 113 114 114 >120
50 106 114 114 115 >120
PUMA 6 Summer Test Relationship Graph
