Regional Mixed Cargo Volume Handled by HATCL in HKIA
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Transcript of Regional Mixed Cargo Volume Handled by HATCL in HKIA
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Regional mixed cargo volume handled by
HATCL in HKIA
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Table of Content
1.0 Background------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3
2.0 Data Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3
2.1 Australasia-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3
2.2 North America---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5
2.3 Europe (Central Europe, Northern Europe, Iberian Europe and Western
Europe) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
2.4 China--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8
2.5 Asia (Excluded China) ---------------------------------------------------------------- 10
3.0 HKIAs future Challenges--------------------------------------------------------------11
3.1 Airfield and airport congestions ----------------------------------------------------- 11
3.2 Challenge for the competitive environment-------------------------------------- 13
3.3 Connectivity between China and HKIA ------------------------------------------- 15
4.0 Conclusion ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16
5.0 Reference -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
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1.0 Background
According to Boeing world air cargo forecast 2010-2011, the top 10 pairs of
trading economies constitute nearly half of total annual intra-Asia air cargo
flows. Eight of the top 10 pairs involve China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. HongKong International Airport (HKIA) has played an important role as a regional
hub for both trade and business in the world. During the last decades, HKIA
has also served its role as the only gateway for China Mainlands exports and
imports. It is considered to be one of the busiest airports in Asia as well as an
important regional transshipment center in the world. It is ranked the second
busiest airports in term of cargo volume in 2009 by handling about 3,384,765
tons. Nowadays, it is the world largest international cargo handling centre
(Hong Kong International Annual Report, 2009).
This report will discuss the regional mixed cargo volume handled by HATCL in
HKIA according to its historical statistic data and future challenges which HKIA
will face in the near future.
2.0 Data Analysis
2.1 Australasia
Graph 1
The graph 1 has shown the total exports and imports from HK to Australasia
from 2001 to 2010. It can be seen that the imports graph has shown a more
volatile wave than the export. The exports on the other hand has shown a
slightly trend of increasing over the time. As Australia is the biggest country in
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Australasia with the largest contribution to the Australasia imports and exports
to Hong Kong, its exports and imports data is used to help explaining the
graph more thoroughly. There are three countries contributing the exports and
imports from Hong Kong which are New Zealand, New Guinea and Australia.
However, Australia accounts for almost 90% of the total exports and imports
from Hong Kong within the region according to the HATCL data. Therefore,Australia trade data is considered to be sufficient as representative for the
Australasia region with analyzing the graph into more details.
According to the data by Australian Government, Department of Foreign
Affairs and Trade (DFAT)1, the major commodities export to Hong Kong during
1999 to 2009 are fruit & nuts, coal and meat. All of them have raised more
than 60% during the last 10 years. In Hong Kong and mainland, the food is
one of the biggest consumptions during the Chinese New Year festival period
due to the culture as fine dining during the festival is treated as an
improvement of life in the following year. Therefore, during the Chinese New
year period (mostly in Feb every year), a large amount of food products such
as nuts, fruits and fresh seafood are exported to Hong Kong. Part of them will
be then re-exported to mainland. Because foods such as fruits and seafood
have a very short shelf life, it has to be transported by air. This explains why
the air cargo imports peak at the beginning of the year on the graph showing
seasonality. It is also to be noticed that the peak in Hong Kongs imports at the
beginning of the year is not only contributed by the demand of Hong Kong but
also the demand in mainland as well. Once the goods have arrived Hong
Kong, it will be re-exported to other regions in mainland.
Only Australasias imports graph has represents such a volatile wave incomparison of other regions. And its imports growth is not affected by the
economic recession during 2008. This might due to the nature of the products
that are imported from Australasia. Food culture is very important in both
Hong Kong and China and some of food are must have for each Chinese New
Year. With the rapid growth of Chinese GDP, the populations of Chinese who
are wealth enough to consume find imported food will continue to increase.
Therefore, in my opinion, the trend of the imports from Hong Kong to
Australasia is likely to increase at similar growth rate and will not reach a
saturated point in the near future.
The exports on the other hand have shown a more steady development than
the imports. The exports graph has shown a few peaks over time as well.
Most of the peak occurred just before Christmas. Since most of the
Australasia countries are western cultures, it is important that retailers
maintain a safety stock and certain amount of reserve stock to satisfy the
demand of Christmas sales. Furthermore, the exports always dip one month
1http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/dme/Direction_of_Exports_2009.pdf
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after the imports peak. It is all because of the Chinese New Year Holiday
which has increased the local demand and decreased the local productivity.
Also, according to the DFAT, the overall imports are falling by an average of
0.4% every year. Even take transshipment from mainland into consideration
that the total imports from China mainland to Australia is declining.
The market imbalance in terms of tonnage between Hong Kong and
Australasia always peak during Christmas and Chinese New Year as the
imports are higher than the exports. As it is discussed above, this is due to the
nature of the commodities that imported through air cargo. Cargo airline tends
to have lower density freight out of Hong Kong and return with high density,
which is wise to be taken into account when making decision on aircraft type
on the route.
2.2 North America
Graph 2
The graph 2 has shown the total exports and imports development from Hong
Kong to North America region. It can be seen from the graph that the exports
line has shown a strong seasonal and regular development during 2001 and
2009. From 2001 to 2002, the exports tonnage has expressed a strong
increase as it has saturated at 43214 in Oct 2002. It is then dropped to 37045
in Oct 2003 and followed by a gradual increase from 2003 to 2007 until the
economic recession. It is also to be noticed that the dip for the export tonnage
also occurs around Feb each year because of Chinese New Year holiday. The
peak occurs in around Oct which is two months before Christmas. Basically,
the exports development seems to be affected a lot by the big events in a year.
Since the date of Christmas and Chinese New Year (roughly around Feb) are
almost certain each year, the exports tonnage follows a regular pattern over
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the time according to these two festivals. Furthermore, the average tonnage
of exports is showing an increasing trend during 2001 and 2007 but followed
by a significantly decrease in 2008 owing to economic recession. However,
the exports tonnage has recovered rapidly after 2009. The exports tonnage in
April 2009 is 25780 compared to the 41092 in April 2010. The figure almost
doubled in a year. This has shown that the supersonic speed of Hong Kongcargo volume is recovering from economic recession. The imports
development from 2001 to 2009 is stable compared to the exports. The
average tonnage each year always maintain at around 7300. However, the
exports have shown slightly increasing trend after economic recession. And
the exports tonnage has reached a history high of 12518 in June 2010.
Although the exports tonnage has almost double from 2009 to 2010, it is still
at its average exports tonnage. In the light that the exports in the future are
likely to maintain a stable development, there are following reasons for this
phenomenon. Firstly, China has shown a massive recovery from economic
recession during 2009 and 2010 and it has even enforced a slowdown of its
economic in order to prevent inflation. The export tonnage from Hong Kong to
North America is also facing the problem that America is having monetary
issues. These two factors will affect Hong Kongs total export tonnage to North
America in the future. As a result, even the exports tonnage has recovered
from the economic recession; it is unlikely the cargo business return to the
level before this economic recession. The overall annual tonnage may
experience some waves for the next few years but it will eventually meet a
saturated point adopted in the new world economic environment. The imports
tonnage will tends to increase due to the China and US that they have
reached a bilateral agreement recently worth about 45 billion US dollarsimports from China to US2. Asia has shown its intention and financial ability as
a driver to help world economic to recover. This is also contributes the opinion
the future Hong Kong imports from US will increase.
The market imbalance is significant between Hong Kong and North America
during 2001 and 2009. The exports tonnage is always higher than the imports
tonnage. However, as it is discussed above, it is believed that the market
imbalance between Hong Kong and North America will be reduced due to the
increase on the imports and decrease on the exports.
2http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-China-tout-45-billion-in-rb-1194633719.html?x=0
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2.3 Europe (Central Europe, Northern Europe, Iberian Europe and
Western Europe)
Graph 3
The air cargo exports development patterns from Hong Kong to Europe is
similar to the exports development from Hong Kong to North America. The
exports tonnage is also peaking before the Christmas and dipping during the
Chinese New Year. Unlike the development from Hong Kong to North America,
the air cargo exports development from Hong Kong to Europe has shown a
steady and gradual increase from 2001 to 2008 until the economic recession.
Even after the recession, the air cargo exports tonnage has recovered
significantly in 2009 and 2010. However, it is believed that the exports trendwill be declining in the future due to the Euro Zone debt crisis at the moment.
This will impace the import ability of the entire euro zone as it may also affect
the Euros buying power in the future.
The imports development from Hong Kong to Europe is reasonable stable
during 2001 and 2010. Since the exports tonnage has kept increasing while
the imports remain the same, the market imbalance between Hong Kong and
Europe is getting greater from 2001 to 2007. During 2001, the exports
tonnage is almost the same than the imports tonnage. However, during Dec
2007, the market imbalance was almost 40000 tonnages. Although it has
diminished during the economic recession, it has then recovered in 2009.
However, the market balance will become lesser as the Euro Zone debt crisis
will last for a while and it will hit the Hong Kong total exports tonnage to
Europe.
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2.4 China
Graph 4
The reason to have China analysis as an individual region is because that
China has played an important and remarkable role in Hong Kongs total air
cargo imports and exports volume. According to the HATCLs data from graph
4, the total air cargo imports and exports have shown a strong correlation
during 2001 to 2010. The development patterns for exports and imports are
similar. As it is shown from the graph, the overall air cargo imports and exports
is increasing until 2008 when the economic recession hit. Both exports and
imports tonnage has reached the same tonnage as it was before economic
recession in 2009. However, as illustrated from graph 4, the gap betweenimports and exports has started increasing from 2001 to 2008. Especially after
the economic recession, the difference reached about 4000 tonnages from
time to time in 2010 which means Hong Kong is exporting more goods to
China than importing. It is also to be noticed that during 2001 to 2010, the
exports have never exceeded the imports.
Because when China took over Hong Kong from British, Hong Kong became
one of the most important gateways for exporting and importing for air cargo
business. This is due to many reasons such as geographical advantage of
Hong Kong, its advanced logistic system and complicated cargo processing
system. Therefore, unlike other regions, the imports and exports from Hong
Kong to China mainland includes certain percentage of transshipment which
is double accounted in the total air cargo imports and exports from Hong Kong
to China mainland. Thus it is important to understand the nature of the trade
relationship between Hong Kong and China when analyzing the exports and
imports data in this case.
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Graph 5
In order to find out how Chinas transshipment participate in the development
of the Hong Kong total exports and imports, Chinas transshipment tonnages
graph (graph 5) is created from HATCL data set as well as the percentage of
the transshipment (graph 6) in total exports and imports volume. As we can
see from graph 5, Chinas transshipment tonnage in Hong Kong has
increased between 2001 and 2008 until the economic recession. This
increase is correspondent to the total exports and imports showed in graph 4.
However, by looking at the percentage of the transshipment in total volume, it
is clearly seen that the transshipment from China is accounting less in the
total volume over the year. Except during the recession, the transshipment
has increased otherwise.
Although Chinas transshipment in HK was increasing before the economic
recession, the percentage of the transshipment in total volume has decreasedover time. This means China is handling more and more of its own exports
and imports by itself instead of going through Hong Kong. Both Chinas
logistic systems (software) and infrastructures (hardware) are getting capable
of handling larger cargos volume. This is also one of the major challenges that
Hong Kong airport should face in the future and it will be briefly discussed in
future challenge section. However, the percentage of the transshipment in
total volume has increased after the economic recession. This can be
explained as due to the advantages of one country, two systems policy
between Hong Kong and China, the mainland was driving Hong Kongs
economy to a quicker recovery from economic recession.
Since China is enforcing a slow down to its overheating economy and shifting
its exporting commodities after economic recession. In my opinion, the trend
of the both imports and exports from Hong Kong to mainland China in the
future is likely to maintain a smooth development because of following two
factors. Firstly, China is shifting its exporting product from basic commodities
into more high-tech related goods and products. In this case, the air
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transportation is perfect for the quality focused product as its cost is less
significantly compared to the value of the cargo itself. Air cargo transportation
in China will certainly expand in the next few years. Secondly, Chinas
dependence on Hong Kong as a gateway is lessening as the percentage of
the transshipment in total volume is decreasing. This means the more and
more exports and imports will be handled by mainland but not through HongKong.
Graph 6
2.5 Asia (Excluded China)
Graph 7
As it is discussed before that China and Hong Kong have a special trade
relationship, in order to analyze the data more objective and accurate, China
is excluded in the Asia region in regarding to Hong Kongs total air cargo
exports and imports to Asia.
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Even China has been excluded from Asia, the air cargo exports and imports
tonnage from Hong Kong to Asia is still showing strong correlation. The air
cargo exports tonnages has shown a slightly quicker increase than the
imports tonnage. Especially after the economic recession, the exports have
exceeded the imports from the recovery. The difference between imports and
exports tonnage is not significant from during 2001 and 2010. Transshipmentis also playing an important role in Hong Kongs exports and imports to Asia
region. As one of the busiest international hub, Hong Kong airport also
function as a cargo transit base for most of the Asia cities from or to Europe,
Australasia and Middle East. Hong Kongs unique system and geographical
advantage have benefited itself be a transportation hub in Asia efficiently. This
may help explained why the exports and imports are showing such as strong
correlation. Therefore, except being a gateway of China, Hong Kong also
behaves as a transit centre in Asia. The long-term outlook of the global
economic is recovery from recession leaded by Asias fast growth in 2009 and
2010. Hong Kongs future air cargo imports and exports to Asia region is
expected to grow in the next few years as it will be definitely contributes to the
world economy recovery.
3.0 HKIAs future Challenge
In summary, the challenges that HKIA is facing are in three aspects. Firstly,
the airfield congestion in PRD region limits its the future development and
expansion. Secondly, competition from Chinese airports as well as
established regional hubs other than Hong Kong is becoming severe. Finally,
the development of high speed train and advanced road freight connectingHong Kong and Mainland may replace air cargo due to lower cost,
convenience as well as environmental friendly.
3.1 Airfield and airport congestions
There are five airports currently under operation in the Pearl River Delta (PRD)
of Guangdong province and it is considered as one of the most congested
airfield in Asia. There five airports are:
1. Guangdong new Baiyun International Airport
2. Hong Kong Chek Lap Kok International Airport
3. Macau International Airport
4. Shenzhen Baoan International Airport
5. Zhuhai Airport
Although these five airports have different business models, they are
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geographically close to each other and facing serious airfield congestion
these years. Besides, all of these five airports have experienced rapid growth
during the last decade by both passenger and cargo volume. However, the
airports locations and layout were poorly designed as shown from the picture
below from Cathy pacific Airways. Height restriction, different Navigation
system, location of the airport, runway orientations and redundant authoritiesetc have caused complicated procedures to operate aircraft approaching and
landing within PRD region. As a result, the freight handling efficiency in each
airport is significantly affected especially in HKIA. In general, the airspace in
PRD has been controlled by Flight Information Region (FIR). Hong Kong
controls Hong Kong and Macaos approach flight and Guangzhou controls
Zhuhai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
Source: Cathay Pacific Airways, 2007
According to the forecast by CAAC, the PRD region will experience around
200 million passengers with 1.76 million aircraft movements per annum by
2020. This is about three times as much as the current traffic (CAAC, 2007).
CAAC has also estimated that the total daily movements in PRD region will
reach 5000 by the year of 2020 which has nearly doubled the current traffic. It
is important for both HKIA and other airports in PRD region to carry out a
union solution before the congestion affecting delay and even collision. On the
other hand, besides airfield congestion, HKIA is also facing airport congestion
challenges. Hong Kong is running out of land, therefore, adding additional
runway to solve the airport congestion may be expensive and difficult.
According to the CAACs forecast on the aircraft movement on 2020, HKIA
airport will suffer from serious congestion during 2020. HKIA should increase
the efficiency of its current air traffic control and internal airport operation
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procedures to utilise the runway capacity in order to meet the increasing
demand for the air traffic.
Although HKIAs airport charges are 10-15% higher than those of Southeast
Asian airports in order to control and limit congestions at HKIA airport (Zhang,
2004). However, given that HK remains a high-cost base from which tooperate, pressure for high levels of service quality will remain intensive.
Furthermore, the cargo-handling charges at Chek Lap Kok also remain high
by Asian regional standards. Increasing airport charges may only be a
temporary solution for the congestion because increasing cost may drive the
freight providers and airline clients away for secondary airports.
3.2 Challenge for the competitive environment
According to Boeings long term forecast, the global cargo traffic is likely to
maintain a 5 percent increasing rate per year till 2024 (Boeing, 2010).
Especially in Asia, the cargo traffic from China to EU and US will likely to show
the fastest growth according to the global market forecasted by Airbus (Airbus,
2010). The potential market demand is promising for HKIA but the competition
within Asia is severe. Furthermore, according to a forecast published by
CAAC (Civil Aviation Authority of China), it has predicted a growth rate of
more than 10 percent for both cargo and passenger traffic for mainland
airports from 2005 to 2025 as the picture below shows.
As it is mentioned, Asia has presented more than 5 percent cargo traffic
growth rate than the world cargo traffic as Boeing and Airbus forecasted,
Chinas more than 10 percent forecast rate is more likely to take most of the
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market share from Asia. On the other hand, as it is stated in Hong Kong
freight transport report (Q3, 2010), Due to the strong competition in Chinese
mainland, the medium-term forecast for air cargo tonnage is to grow by an
annual average of 2.4 percent. The forecast is based on a five year standard.
With the fast growing Chinese economy, China has established a lot ofairports that have the capability of handling international air cargos in the past
decade in the North China. According to CAAC, airports such as Beijing
International Airport and Shanghai Pudong International Airport are now
capable of handling a large scale of both passengers and cargos volume as
illustrated by the picture below:
The increasing rate for the development of Mainland airports may result
volume diversion from HKIA each year. Since most of the cargos,transshipments is being able to carried out in China directly with less cost and
better efficiency thanks to advance aircraft technologies, the total export
figures from Hong Kong airport will drop. As it is mentioned in graph 6
(HATCLs data), the percentage of the transshipment from China to Hong
Kong is decreasing despite an increase on the overall exports and imports
from China. The mainlands air cargo exports and imports dependence on
Hong Kong is lessening. In other words, the faster development of Chinese
mainland aviation industry due to rapid liberalization (Hong, 2006) has
decreased HKIAs superior as a transfer and transit hub. Besides, there are
also other competitors in Asia that competing with HKIA for both potential
cargos and passengers for example Singapore and Taipei which also have a
vision becoming leading airport in Asia region. HKIAs is recommended to
target on collaboration with airlines and other cargo service provider to
establish a strong network that facilitates more transfer flows through Hong
Kong (HKIA, 2005).
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3.3 Connectivity between China and HKIA
After the recession, Chinas has started to show a decreasing rate of its export.
Because of the recession, China is shifting its economic strength from exports
to domestic development and technology focused industry since it relied on its
exports contribution to its total GDP. In the short term point of view, this mayunlikely to affect the potential traffic volume in the future. However, due to the
influence by the recession, China has accelerated its domestic consumption.
Project such as advanced road logistic network and high speed rail system
has been executed. Especially the high speed rail which has achieved several
world speed record has been taken into manufacture production. The
currently railway route will only take approximately 4 hours from Beijing to
Shanghai (1318 km) will be expected to be in service 2011. Mainland will take
advantage of its railway network to increase the connectivity between each
cities and hubs. According to the Hong Kong Freight Transport Report (Q3,
2010), Hong Kong is integrating its trucking industry with Mainland and it is
expected that the Hong Kong annual road freight volume to expand by an
average of 14.3% in the five years to 2015. The road traffic and rail freight
growth is much faster than the air cargo traffic as forecasted by only 2.4
percent. Given the picture below, the connectivity between Hong Kong and
Mainland is only 38 compared to 81 in Guangzhou airport and 57 in Shenzhen
airport. In order to be the most important gateway for China, increase the
connectivity to China is the highest priority for HKIA at the moment.
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4.0 Conclusion
The trend of the global air cargo industry is experiencing significant recovery
especially in Asia. Hong Kongs air cargo export to Europe and North America
regions has kept increasing while import is steady. The development of import
and export from Hong Kong to Australasia is majorly driven by major eventsand holiday season due to the nature of the product. Since HKIA is one of the
most import transiting hub in Asia, its exports and imports to Asia has
presented strong correlation over years. Furthermore, as the only gateway of
China mainland, HKIAs role as a transfer and transiting hub is diminished
because of rapid development and liberalization of mainlands aviation
industry. Regardless of the huge future potential air cargo market in Asia as
well as globally, HKIA faces not only the challenge from China mainland but
also other competitors in Asia. In order to attract more potential cargos and
passenger volume in the future, Hong Kong is recommended to reinforce its
role as a transiting and transferring region hub. Airfield congestion has
potentially limited the current handling capability of HKIA within PRD region.
Under the One country, two systems policy, it has made the PRD airfield
complicated to operate due to boundary controls between Hong Kong and
Mainland. In the long term point of view, communicating and collaborating with
China Mainland is the highest priority for HKIA in the future for expansion in its
handling capability for both passengers and cargos volume. Methods such as
smoothing or eliminating the boundary controls within PRD region, building up
efficient network with Mainland airports and reinforcing HKIA as a cargo and
logistic hub in Asia is suggested. According to the HKIAs Master Plan for
2020 (HKIA, 2020), HKIA is also currently undergoing a project called
SkyCity which is targeted to establish a 24-hour airport city with communityenvironment. And it is expected to help HKIA generating more air traffic and
strengthening Hong Kongs position as a region hub and Mainlands gateway.
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