Redistricting Status Report: Nuts & Bolts By Kimball Brace September 9, 2011 Election Data Services,...
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RedistrictingStatus Report:Nuts & BoltsBy Kimball Brace
September 9, 2011 Election Data Services, Inc.
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Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?Since 1986, we’ve been on your wall.
In 2010/11 you’ll need a larger wall
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Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?
Since 1979, more than half the nation
has been helped by Election Data Services in
redistricting
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Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?
Since 1980, kept track of what voting equipment is used in every county of the nation
2010
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Who is Election Data Services, Inc.?
If it concerns elections,
And it deals with data …
We’re probably involved
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Cameras do not make the pictures,
Photographers do
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What does Photography have to do with Redistricting?
“Computers are just a tool.”
George Meier
Staff Director,
Florida House Redistricting Cmte.
“Software can’t create a plan,
Humans do”
A wise man once said:
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State Legislatures Pre-Election 2010
Democrat-27
Split-8
Nonpartisan
Republican-14
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2010 Results
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State Legislatures Post-Election 2010
Democrat-16
Split-6
Undecided/Nonpartisan - 3
Republican- 25
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Reapportionment vs RedistrictingWhat’s the difference
• Reapportionment− Allocation of districts to an area
• US Congressional Districts to states• Some states use to allocate legislative
districts to counties
• Redistricting− Crafting of district configurations within an
area• Congressional, state legislative, county
council, city wards, etc.• Usually happens once a decade
−Unless you’re Tom Delay
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Historical Apportionment of U.S. House Seats
Net Gain or Loss Since 1930
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Redistricting Factors
• One Person, One Vote – Equal size Districts− Congressional− State Legislative− Local
• Voting Rights Act − “Fairly reflect minority strength”
• Kitchen sink− Jurisdiction geography – how to divide− “Community of interest”− Political factors & incumbancy− Compactness− Others
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Census Political
TIGER/Line® Files
Other Boundaries
Precinct and
Electoral District
Boundaries
Redistricting Summary
(PL 94-171). ACS Files, Citizenship
Data
Election Returns
and Voting Statistics
Tabular
Spatial
Redistricting Data Cube
© Election Data Services, Inc.
Source of data
Typ
e o
f D
ata
20102000
1990 ?
20102008
20062004
2002
EARLIER?
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All Numeric Data to Block Level
Voter RegistrationSystem
Population Data(PL94-171)
Election Returns
Block VAP/Precinct VAP
PrecinctAssignment
Block VAP/Precinct VAP
Geographic Level
County
Precinct
Block
Address
Block Group ACS DataCensus Survey
Block VAP/BG VAP
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The Election Process – From a data prospective
Total Population
Voting Age Population
Citizen Voting Age Population
Registration
TurnoutVotes for President
Other Statewide OfficesCongressional
StateLegislature
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Race Data -- Decision on use
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Practical impact
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TIGER Migration Impact
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Olympic Command for Redistricting Season:
Let the Games Begin.
This will be ________’s fifth political Olympiad since the Warren Court forced America into the ideological straightjacket of one-person, one-vote 44 years ago.
Like the first four, it will feature outstanding legislative warfare, after which the combatants will go to court and ask a judge who won.
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Thank you
Kimball Brace
President
Election Data Services, Inc.
6171 Emerywood Court
Manassas, VA 20112
(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)
[email protected] or [email protected]
www.electiondataservices.com