July 17, 2010Tokyo university and Kyushu university;

Symposium for “Development of environmentalfunctional catalyst based on nanotechnology”

Realization of the low carbon societyand the hope for solar energy

Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute,Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc., JapanPresident emeritus, University of Tokyo

2

Rapid rate of change andNeed of rapid response

Complicatedness of issues andCompartmentalization of knowledge

Global issues and Essential background

Finite earth and Explosive knowledge

Vision, Structuring of knowledgeand networking

Improve energy efficiency by three timesImprove energy efficiency by three times

Double the use of renewable energyDouble the use of renewable energy

Establish recycling system of materialsEstablish recycling system of materials

Vision 2050

To realize low carbon society by green innovation,I have been proposing

Saturation of artifacts in developed countries

０．０１１３India０．０２３２China０．４９４１Germany０．５０３１France０．５１３１Britain０．４５１３８USA０．４５５８Japan

No. of automobiles perpopulation

No. ofautomobiles

（million）

Source：Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association,Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications

１．The number of automobile ownership（2007）

２．Transition of number of total houses and households（10 million vacant houses)

Source：1958～2008：Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT)2015～2030：National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Saturation of artifacts in Japan

Total houses (thousand)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030

total houses(thousands)households(thousands)

セメント生産量：国連統計年鑑人口：UNSD Demographic Statistics、

および国連統計年鑑より

Saturation will come within 10 years in China

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

人口

一人

当たりセメント生

産量

［ton

/人］

JapanChinaUSAFrance

Pro

duct

ion

ofC

emen

tper

pers

on[t

on]

Production of cement per person

Source：Production of Cement：UN Statistical year book

Population：UNSD Demographic Statistics

Year

Automobile energy can be 1/5 or lower in 2050

Vehicle Weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos

Fue

lCon

sum

ptio

n[L

/km

]

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European Cars

Japanese Cars

Hybrid Cars

Electric & Fuel cells Cars

1960 1970 1980 1990Year

USDenmarkBelgiumFranceSweden

Source: Japan Cement Association

Japan

Ener

gyCo

nsum

ptio

npe

rton

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

0

6,000(MJ/t)

theoretical value

Technology transfer can reduce emission

Cement Approaching to a limit

Investment for energy efficiency is win-win-win

Recycling saves energy

Energy ratio of reduction and melting

Iron 27 times

Aluminum 83 times

As a whole, 3 times improvement is reasonable

22nd century will be bright

a) 19906.0G C-ton

1.5G

b) 2050 BAU case

c) Vision 2050

d) After 22nd Century

1.5G

22.0G C-ton

3.0G

Fossil resources

Non- Fossil resources

Data: from “Vision 2050”

CO2 369 ppm

CO2 600 ppm

CO2 460 ppm

CO2 280 ppm

4.5G C-ton

Efficiency first, alternative energy second

0

5

10

15

20

1997 2050 1997 2050

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Em

issi

on

,G

C-t

on

fossil non-fossil

5.0

1.7 2.5

5.8

17.5

80% reduction in developed countries

Compiled data created by The University of Tokyo

Growth is rights but efficiency is duties!

Technology for the Earth- Vision 2050 -

Publishing is not enough

Making thingsDaily life

Home

Transportation

Office

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Energy consumption by final use (Japan)

Air-conditioner28%

Water heating30%

others24%

kitchen8%

Energy consumption in houses

エネルギー・経済統計要覧2009年版より

lighting10%

50%: air-conditioner 20%: lighting in offices

Water Heater

US (majority)

Tank storage 40%

5

Japan (majority)

Heat-to-use 80%

2.5

Heat-pump (ecocute)

50%×4=200%

1

Fuel cell (enefarm)36% elec. + 50% hot water

0

We need catalysts and materials for better efficiency!

Komiyama’s Eco-House & Car

81 % Energy Reduction

Solar Power Generation: 3.6kW

Heat Pump Water Heater: COP=4

High Insulation: K=1.6 W/m2K

New air conditioners

Even the existing technologies can do

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Hybrid car: 22km/l

New refrigerator & lightings

Refundable in 12 years

Proposal by Team Ｋomiyama

Daily life １２％

Making things ３％

Nuclear energy etc. ５％

Forest etc. ５％

ＣＤＭ ５％

ー Goal of Vision ー

Energy 70%

Resource 70%

Food 70%

Self-sufficiency of Japan in 2050

Solutions of Japan are those of humankind !

science &technology society

Inconvenient Truth in S&T-Society relation

Low Carbon SocietyStrategy Center

Real-time bridging of S&T and Societyby structuring of knowledge

6 billion people must take actions.

2050 will come soon and sowe don’t have much time any more.

We need structuring of actionsto shorten the lead time.

Concurrent Approach by Structuring of Actions

Unit knowledge

Action-1

Action-2 Action-4

Action-3

Unit knowledge

Unit knowledge

Unit knowledge

New Action New Action

23

Paradigm in 21st century

20thCentury

Infinite earth

Shrinking earth

21stCentury

Aging society

•Climate change•Depleting resource•Pollution•Food, water

•Longevity•Small birth rate•Saturating demand•Pension•Medicine•Care•Work sharing•Barrier free …

•Financial crisis•Pandemic …

20001900

CO2

H2OChlorophyll

O2Sunlight

carbohydrateCO2

H2O

photosynthesis

Exploding knowledge

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P134

Age65～Age65～

Age15～64Age15～64

～age14～age14

Year2005 127millionYear2055 89million

National census 2005, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

Shrinking earth

Aging society

Eco houseEco applianceEco carSolar panelWind mill

Barrier free buildingHealth monitoringSafe mobilitySenses supporting

Green, silver & golden innovation

Exploding knowledge

Structuring knowledgeStructured knowledge- baseEducationLifelong learningValue creation

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Layered Structure of Platinum Network

Network of Cities

Network ofUniversities andResearch Institutes

Aomori,Aomori City

North Japan NewEnergy ResearchCenter, Hirosaki Univ.

Kashiwa Campus,Tokyo Univ.

Kita Kyushu City Kashiwa City ,Nagareyama City

Asia Low CarbonCenter

Sister-CityNetwork ofForeign Countries

Center for Low CarbonSociety Strategy, JST

ICAS, IbaragiUniv.

Center for Environment, Healthand Field Sciences, ChibaUniversity

Future Design Center （FDC）:Established to solve national issues, July 2009Concluded agreement with Future Center, The

University of Tokyo

Eco-Model Cities with Action Plans:Kita Kyushu City, Kyoto City, Sakai City, Yokohama City, Iida City,

Obihiro City, Toyama City, Toyota City, Simokawa City,Minamata City, Miyakojima City, Yusuhara-machi, Chiyoda-ku

Platinum Network

MEXT：Chair of Strategy Committee for Low carbon SocietyProposal by MRI: Platinum Society

Platinum Fund

Prefectural Fund

Independent Government Bond(Refundable）

(Eco, Barrier-free, High-quality of life)

as of Feb 10, 2010

Ⓒ Hiroshi Komiyama

Ibaraki：「Eco ,Agriculture and

Forestry」Under Negotiation

Nagano：Studying

Fukui ：Fruitful-Aged Society Agreement:With Institute of Gerontology, The University of Tokyo

Kita Kyushu City:Environmental capital ,Asia low carbon center(tentative) , President

Kumamoto:Under Negotiation

Nao-shima:Eco Town:Planning

Toyota City: Action PlanSpecial Municipal

Committee at Komiyama’Eco House, Oct 29

Shizuoka：Under

Negotiation

Yokohama City: YokoyamaEco School (YES):Honorary adviser

Kawasaki City:Nanofabrication (4 Universities)

Katori City: Studying

Kashiwa & NagareyamaCities:”Kashiwa Int’l Scientific City

Plan”: Industry-Municipality-Academic Collaboration 2005

Aomori：”Aoimori Central ParkLow-Carbon Model Plan”

Kick off, Sep 29:Special Advisor

Hokkaido：Green Society: StudyingHonorable Advisor

Yamatake City: Biomass TownUnder Negotiation

Tokyo: Rainbow Town: Studying

Toyama：Compact CityStudying

Yamaguchi:Studying

Hiroshima:Studying

present

http://www.t-yakata.com/tyh_dkship.htm

1967

http://www.env.go.jp/policy/hakusyo/zu/eav11/eav110000000000.html

Japan’s experience with Sumida river

present1950’s

Japan’s experience with Yokkaichi

Ⓒ Yokkaichi City

http://www.city.yokkaichi.mie.jp/kankyo/kogai.htm

Japan’s experience with kitakyusyu

Source：Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world P27

30

東京電力ホームページより作成http://www.tepco.co.jp/csr/report/download/2006/015-j.pdf)http://www.tepco.co.jp/custom/LapLearn/mission/env_02-j.html)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

日 本

カナダ

イタリア

フランス

ドイツ

イギリス

アメリカ

1999年

2002年

発電量当たりのSOx発生量 [g/kWh]

火力発電所からの硫黄酸化物排出原単位の国際比較

4.83.7

3.22.6

1.20.7

7.12.0

2.71.7

4.03.9

0.20.2

Emission of Sulfur Oxides from Thermal Power Plants

Data Source: Tokyo Electric Power Company, web-siteSOx (kg/kwh)

U.S.

U.K.

Germany

Italy

France

Canada

Japan

Small land areaPoor resourcesLarge populationAgeing societyHighly industrialized

The world in 2050 !

Japan is at the frontier!

Thank you!