Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009...

7/27/2019 Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 20082009 Crisis

1/30

ECIH Zkrdhfj Qepor Worhos

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Lksnue Ehzof`efefc Xktnhf Lhflered

Fk& 398Lumy 9157

Eshef Covomkp`oft Iefd Hfsthtuto


2/30

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9157 Eshef Covomkpòft Iefd Hfsthtuto
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/30

ECIH Zkrdhfj Qepor 398 Ehzof`ef efc Lhflered

Eistregt

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4/30


Gkftofts

5& Hftrkcugthkf efc Kvorvhow &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 79&

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9&5 Qromh`hfery Wtethsthgs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& ?9&9 Qettorfs kb Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Gurroft Eggkuft

Cobhght+Jrkss Ckòsthg Qrkcugt &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 27& Iesomhfo Yosumts &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&55

7&5 Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&557&9 Iroeds hf Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhghts efc Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&577&7 Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght vhsvhs Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5?

3& Wofshthvhty Efemyshs &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5:3&5 Yovorso Boociegd &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&5:3&9 Esy`òtrhg Eclustòft &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&583&7 Ogkfk`hg Whjfhbhgefgo &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&95

?& Gkfgmuchfj Yoèrds &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&93Yoborofgos &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&9?

Eppofchx E< Uuertormy Cete- 911?


5/30


7

5& HFSYKC_GSHKF EFC KROYRHOZ

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bhfefghem grhshs wes fkt oxgoss sevhfj iut tno oxgoss omesthghty kb tno hftorfethkfem `kfoteryefc bhfefghem systo`4 efc Kistbomc .9159 gkuftrhos kb tno Krjefhsethkf bkr Ogkfk`hg Gkkporethkf efc Covomkpòft .KOGC( pmus tnoQokpmos Yopuimhg kb Gnhfe .QYG(- `kvoòfts hf nkuso prhgos emkfo oxpmehf nemb kb tnoverhethkf hf treco costghts& Jotos .9151( `kcom snkwoc tnet hfgroesoc coèfc bkr nkushfj èy


6/30


3

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ropmhgethfj tno o`phrhgem ovhcofgo kb tno esskghethkf iotwoof gurroft eggkuft pettorfs efc roemosteto vemuethkfs& Iomhob cyfe`hgs gef to`pkrerhmy comhfd nkuso prhgos brk` bufceòftems- sktnet mkw hftorost retos gef buom e nkuso prhgo ikk`&

Es tnoro hs fk roeskf bkr tno romethvo h`pkrtefgo kb tno gurroft eggkuft efc tno grocht pettorfstk stey steimo kvor thò hf eggkufthfj roem osteto vemuethkf- wo oxpmkro hf tnhs pepor tno cojrootk wnhgn tno pettorfs iobkro tno jmkiem grhshs gkfthfuo tk nkmc ebtor tno grhshs& Wpoghbhgemmy- womkkd et tno bkmmkwhfj quosthkfs

Kfgo wo pmkt tno gkuftryspoghbhg ovkmuthkf kb roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf sorhos- merjochbborofgos eppoer egrkss gkuftrhos hf tno esskghetoc pettorfs ejehfst tno iegdcrkp kb tnojmkiem bhfefghem grhshs& Wnkwf hf Bhjuro 9E- roem osteto vemuethkf verhoc èrdocmy iobkro efcebtor tno jmkiem grhshs ovofts- es snkwf iy tno twk vorthgem mhfos bkr 911:


11/30


8

Bhjuro 9E< Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght+JrkssCk`osthg Qrkcugt

q 0 quertor&

Fkto< Yoem osteto epproghethkf hs e cerdor mhfo kf tno mobt sgemo& Sno twk vorthgem mhfos cofkto 911:


12/30


51

Bhjuro 9I< Yoem Osteto Remuethkf Epproghethkf efc Jrkwtn kb Ck`osthgGrocht+JCQ

q 0 quertor&

Fkto< Yoem osteto epproghethkf hs e cerdor mhfo kf tno mobt sgemo& Sno twk vorthgem mhfos cofkto 911:


13/30


55

7& IEWOMHFO YOW_MSW

7&5 Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs

Brk` kur iesomhfo osthèthkf- roem osteto vemuethkf hs pkshthvomy efc shjfhbhgeftmy esskghetoc whtngurroft eggkuft cobhghts hf iktn porhkcs iobkro efc ebtor tno grhshs kb 911>9118& Yoem ostetovemuethkf hs pkshthvomy esskghetoc whtn ckòsthg grocht jrkwtn tk e mossor cojroo- stethsthgemmyshjfhbhgeft kfmy hf tno porhkc iobkro tno grhshs& Gkmu`f 5 kb Seimo 5 prkvhcos tno èhf rosumts-ushfj 911:


14/30


59

Seimo 5< Jmkiem Bhfefghem Grhshs efc Yoem Osteto Epproghethkf&

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911?(

e

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9 5&89 .1&2?( 5&85e

.1&22(e

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.1&77(e

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9 1&5: .1&53( 1&52 .1&53(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&19 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(

9 1&11 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(

Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&95 .1&13( 1&95e

.1&13(e

9 1&52 .1&1:(i

1&53 .1&1:(g

7 1&1: .1&12( 1&1: .1&12(

3 1&11 .1&19( 1&11 .1&19(GQH hfbmethkf 5 1&8? .1&?1(

g5&5> .1&?5(

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SOC sproec 5 9&12 .5&:?( 1&88 .5&:5(

RH^ 5 1&1? .1&18( 1&55 .1&51(

Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&1: .1&99( 1&55 .1&99(

Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&12 .1&12( 1&1> .1&12(

gkfsteft 1 1&:: .1&?5( 1&1? .1&?:(

Kisorvethkfs :85 :85ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&1>3 &

GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


15/30


57

Sno iesomhfo rosumts emsk snkw tnet oquhty èrdot epproghethkf efc hfbmethkf ero o`phrhgemmyesskghetoc whtn roem osteto vemuethkf- wnhmo tno romethkfsnhp whtn ktnor verheimos .jrkwtn- jmkiemhftorost reto- skvorohjf rhsd- rosorvo egguùmethkf( hs fkt suppkrtoc hf tno gurroft se`pmo& Snopkshthvo esskghethkf iotwoof roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc oquhty èrdot vemuethkfepproghethkf hs gkfshstoft whtn tno woemtn obbogts brk` roem osteto vemuethkf tk oquhty hfvostòft-es gephtem jehfs hf tno oquhty hfvostòft sphmm kvor tk tno roem osteto sogtkr& Sno esskghethkf

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?

7&9 Iroeds hf Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhghts efc Ckòsthg Grocht Jrkwtn

Nkwovor- kur se`pmo bkgusos kf e spoghbhg ophskco iobkro efc ebtor tno

jmkiem grhshs& Nofgo- tno bhfchfjs ck fkt h`pmy tnet oxpogtethkfcrhvof porshstofgo hf roem ostetovemuethkf èy mest kfmy nemb e yoer- iut hfstoec tnet tnhs kisorvoc `kòftu` eppoers tk io tnogeso kvor tno porhkc kb 911?


16/30


53

Seimo 9< Surfhfj Qkhfts kb Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght+JCQ efc Jrkwtn kb CkòsthgGrocht+JCQ

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf .bhrst gkmu`f( efc bhxocobbogt osthèthkf .sogkfc gkmu`f(- ushfj quertormy cetkvor tno porhkc 911?( 9&87 .5&?7(,

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e.1&23(

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e.1&25(

Jrkwtn kb ckòsthg grocht+JCQ iroedihfery.5+1(

5&2: .5&99( 5&3? .5&3?(

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CGY+JCQ ebtor iroed 5 1&58 .1&91( 1&13 .1&5>(9 1&5> .1&5?( 1&5? .1&53(

GEC+JCQ CGY+JCQ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&15(

9 1&11 .1&15( 1&11 .1&15(Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&95 .1&13( 1&5?

e.1&13(

e

9 1&5? .1&1:(

1&18 .1&1:(7 1&1: .1&12( 1&19 .1&12(3 1&11 .1&19( 1&15 .1&19(

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g

Kisorvethkfs :85 :85ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo & Y

0 1&>5


Fkto


17/30


5?

Hf ecchthkf- whtn tnoso emtorfethvo turfhfj pkhfts- ushfj tno bhxocobbogt osthèthkf ckos fktgnefjo tno èhf bhfchfj kf tno pkshthvo efc stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft esskghethkf iotwoof roemosteto vemuethkf efc gurroft eggkuft cobhght& Es snkwf hf gkmu`f 9 kb Seimo 9- tno gkobbhghoftosthètos kb gurroft eggkuft cobhght+JCQ roèhf stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft hf tno bhxocobbogtosthèthkf4 tno gkobbhghoft osthètos kb mejjoc roem osteto vemuethkf epproghethkf efc oquhtyèrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf emsk roèhf stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft& Burtnor- gurroft eggkuft

cobhght+JCQ oftors tno osthèthkf pkshthvo efc stethsthgemmy shjfhbhgeft iktn hfchvhcuemmy efc eshftoregthkf tor`s& Sno oxpmefetkry pkwor- es òesuroc iy Y9 hf gkmu`f 9- sujjosts tnet tnoosthèthkf hs eimo tk oxpmehf eikut >1/ kb verhethkf hf tno roem osteto vemuethkf kvor tno porhkc kb911?


18/30


52

Seimo 7< Gurroft Eggkuft Cobhght vhsvhs Jrkwtn kb Ckòsthg Grocht kf YoemOsteto Remuethkf

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3 1&1> .1&53(

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1&5: .1&1:(i

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5&91 .1&?1(i

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RH^ 5 1&19 .1&1>( 1&19 .1&1>(

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Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&12 .1&12( 1&12 .1&12(

gkfsteft 1 5&1? .1&33( 1&87i

.1&33(i

Kisorvethkfs :2? :2?

ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo & &GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


19/30


5:

Iesoc kf stethsthgem pehrwhso gkrromethkf efc pefom gkhftojrethkf tosts- `umthgkmmhfoerhtyiotwoof gurroft eggkuft cobhght efc jrkwtn kb ck`osthg grocht hs ufmhdomy- et moest bkr tno 911?


20/30


5>

`kòftu` efc efhèmsphrhts gneffoms hf tno roem osteto vemuethkf gef gnefjo retnorhfcopofcoftmy brk` tnkso hf oquhty hfvostòft kvor tno grhshs porhkc&

:

Seimo 3< Yovorso Boociegd kb Yoem Osteto Epproghethkf tk Gurroft Eggkuft efc Oquhty@erdot

Snhs teimo ropkrts cyfe`hg pefom osthèthkf- ushfj quertormy cete kvor tno porhkc 911?: .7&9>(

7 1&85 .1&1>( 5&3>e

.7&7>(

3 1&77 .1&17( 1&73e

.5&93(

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9 1&1? .1&19(i

1&1: .1&:7(

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.1&39(i

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Oquhty èrdot vemuethkf epproghethkf 5 1&11 .1&11( 1&?2 .1&1:(e

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7 1&11 .1&11( 5&93 .1&55(e

3 1&11 .1&11( 1&35 .1&17(e

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2&58 .1&8?(e

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SOC sproec 5 1&91 .1&55(g

59&23 .7&5?(e

RH^ 5 1&15 .1&15( 1&15 .1&52(

Wkvorohjf GCW 5 1&19 .1&15( 1&:9 .1&37(g

Bkrohjf rosorvo egguùmethkf 5 1&15 .1&11(i

1&99 .1&59(g

gkfsteft 1 1&1: .1&17(i

9&71 .1&82(i

Kisorvethkfs :>8 :85

ErommefkIkfc EY.9( tost pvemuo 1&895 1&211GEC 0 gurroft eggkuft cobhght- GCW 0 grocht cobeumt swep- GQH 0 gkfsuòr prhgo hfcox- CGY 0 ckòsthg grocht- JCQ 0jrkss ckòsthg prkcugt&

Fkto


21/30


58

3&9 Esy`òtrhg Eclustòft

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Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009...

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Transcript of Real Estate Valuation, Current Account, and Credit Growth Patterns Before and After the 2008–2009...