377

600

2011 2031

Urbanisation (in millions)

4

25

FY2012 FY2022

FDI Inflows (USD billion)

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Census 2011, Aranca Research

CAGR: 2.4%

360.0

649.5

2010 2020

Construction Market

CAGR: 6.1%

CAGR: 20.1%

FDI in the sector is estimated to

grow to USD25 billion in 10

years

Fourth largest sector in terms of

FDI inflows

The number of Indians living in

urban areas will increase from

the current 377 million to about

600 million by 2031

Rapid urbanisation bodes well

for the sector

Indian construction market is

expected to more than double

to USD649.5 billion by 2020

from USD360 billion in 2010

Indian construction market is

expected to be the world’s third

largest by 2020

Growing demand

Source: BMI (Business Monitor International), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Aranca Research

Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment; 2020E - Estimate for 2020

Growing demand

• Demand for residential properties has surged due to increased urbanisation and rising household income

• Growing economy driving demand for commercial and retail space

Attractive opportunities

• Growing requirements of space from sectors such as education and healthcare

• Growth in tourism providing opportunities in the hospitality sector

Policy support

• Allocation of USD2.8 billion for rural housing for FY14 budget

• The government has allowed FDI of up to 100 per cent in development projects for townships and settlements

Increasing Investments

• FDI in real estate of USD22.67 billion between April 2000 and August 2013

• During April 2012–January 2013, the real estate sector accounted for 8.8 per cent of total FDI inflows into India

2010–11

Market

size:

USD55.6

billion

2020E

Market

size:

USD180

billion

Advantage

India

• Fragmented market with few large players

• Demand of over 3,00,000 units in the seven major cities in 2010. Residential space supply of nearly 1.4 billion sq ft is expected to come by 2015 out of the planned supply of 2.1 billion sq ft across 10 major cities

Real estate sector

Commercial space

Retail space

Hospitality space

SEZs

• Few players with presence across India

• Of a total supply of 445 million sq ft of office space planned in 10 major cities, around 167 million sq ft would come up during 2013 -15 with the demand being 66 million sq ft during the same period

• FDI in multi- brand retail to boost demand

• Fragmented market with few national players

• Of a total planned supply of 67 million sq ft across major cities, around 38 million sq ft would come up during 2013 -15

• A competitive market with many players

• Over 121,000 hotel rooms in the country as of 2011

• The hotel industry grew 13 per cent during 2011–12

Residential space

Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Knight Frank, CRISIL, Aranca Research

Notes: SEZ - Special Economic Zone. IT - Information Technology, ITeS - Information Technology Enabled Services, * - As of March 2013

• The government has formally approved 577 SEZs*

• Majority of the SEZs are in the IT/ ITeS sector

50.1 53.3 55.6

66.8

180

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY 2020E

Market size of real estate in India (USD billion) Real estate contributes about 5 per cent to India’s GDP

The market size of real estate in India is expected to

increase at a CAGR of 11.2 per cent during FY2008 - 2020

The real estate sector is estimated to be worth USD180

billion by 2020

Source: BMI, Aranca Research

Notes: CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate,

E - Estimates

CAGR: 11.2%

Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation,

RBI, CRISIL, Aranca Research

Note: E - Estimates

Urban-rural housing shortage (million) The urban housing shortage is estimated at 18.7 million in

2012

The housing shortage in rural India stood at 47.4 million as

of 2012

The housing shortage in urban and rural India will be

around 21.7 and 19.7 million units respectively in 2014

Total rural housing shortage is estimated at 43.7 million

during the period 2012-2017

Total housing shortage for XII plan period (2012-2017) is

estimated to be 48.8 millions

Significant increase in real estate activity in cities like

Indore, Raipur, Ahmadabad, Jaipur and other two-tier cities;

this has opened new avenues of growth for the sector

15 18

25 19 21 19 22

34 30

27 27 26

47

20

2001 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014E

Urban Rural

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable Trends

A localised, fragmented market presents opportunities for consolidation

Few large, pan-India players such as DLF and Unitech

Rapid urbanisation

Rise in the number of nuclear families

Easy availability of finance

Repatriation of NRIs and HNIs

Demand to grow at a CAGR of 19 per cent between 2010 and 2014 - 40 per cent of this from Tier 1 cities

At 3x to 4x, demand-supply gap is highest in the low and mid income segments

Increase in real estate projects in two-tier and three-tier cities

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

trends

Demand projections across top 7 cities (‘000 units)

350 410

500

600

710

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Demand analysis of top 7 cities (‘000 units) 2010-14

830 800

300

220 180 160 160

Mu

mba

i

NC

R

Pu

ne

Be

ng

alu

ru

Ch

enn

ai

Ko

lka

ta

Hyde

raba

d

Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research

Notes: NRI - Non-resident Indian; HNI - High Net-worth Individual

Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)

Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research

Notes: MNC - Multinational Corporation, BFSI - Banking, Financial and Insurance Services;

CBD - Central Business District, SBD - Special Business District, NCR - National Capital Region

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable Trends

Few large developers with a pan-India presence

dominate the market

Operating model has shifted from sales to a lease-

and-maintenance

Rapid growth in services sectors: IT/ITeS, BFSI

and Telecom

Rising demand from MNCs

Demand for office space in Tier 2 cities

Mumbai, NCR and Bengaluru account for 46 per

cent of total office space demand in India

Demand growth projected to be the highest in Tier

2 cities such as Kolkata and Chennai during 2010-

14

Business activity shifting from CBDs to SBDs, Tier

1 to Tier 2 cities

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

trends

33 36 39 42 44

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14

39 38 36

30 25 22

10

Be

ng

alu

ru

Mu

mba

i

NC

R

Che

nn

ai

Hyde

raba

d

Pu

ne

Ko

lka

ta

Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)

Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research

Currently, retail accounts for a small portion of the

Indian real estate market

Organised retailers are few, and the organised

retail space is mostly developed by

residential/office space developers

Booming consumerism in India

Organised retail sector growing 25-30 per cent

annually

Entry of MNC retailers

NCR accounts for about 30 per cent of the total

mall supply

About 53 per cent of demand for total mall space in

India expected to come from top seven cities

Demand for retail space on high streets is quite

high as well

Increase in FDI limit for multi-brand retail will lead

to significantly higher demand for retail space

Scenario

Key drivers

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

trends

3 4

5

7

10

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14

8 7

6

3

2 2 2 B

eng

alu

ru

Mu

mba

i

NC

R

Ko

lka

ta

Pu

ne

Hyde

raba

d

Che

nn

ai

Source: Knight Frank India, Aranca Research

Note: FSI - Floor Space Index

NCR and Mumbai are by far the biggest hospitality

markets in India, followed by Bengaluru,

Hyderabad and Chennai

Besides hotels, the hospitality market comprises

serviced apartments and convention centres

A robust domestic tourism industry

The increasingly global nature of Indian

businesses boosting business travel

Tax incentives for hotels and higher FSI

Serviced apartments appear particularly attractive

within the hospitality space

Government initiatives to promote tourism in Tier 2

and Tier 3 cities is generating significant demand

for hotels in such cities, especially for budget

hotels

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable Trends

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

trends

Demand projections (no of rooms)

Demand analysis of top 7 cities (no of rooms) 2010-14

32,660 35,503 38,789

43,828

2010 2011 2012 2013

10,519 10,519

4,821

3,945 3,506 2,630

1,315 N

CR

Mu

mba

i

Hyde

raba

d

Be

ng

alu

ru

Che

nn

ai

Pu

ne

Ko

lka

ta

Growth drivers

Growth in tourism

Epidemological

changes

Policy support Easier financing

Growing economy

Urbanisation

Real GDP growth rates of major economies The Indian economy experienced robust growth in the past

decade and is expected to be one of the fastest growing

economies in the coming years

Demand for commercial property is being driven by the

country’s economic growth

India’s real GDP growth rate is estimated to be 3.8 per cent

in 2013 from 10.55 per cent in 2010. India’s real GDP is

estimated to be 6.72 per cent in 2018

Source: IMF, Aranca Research

Note: F - Forecast

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

China India

Advanced Economies Emerging Economies

Population breakup of India (million) The increasing urban population is expected to cross 600

million by 2031

Urbanisation and growing household income is driving

demand for residential real estate and growth in the retail

sector

Source: Indian Census, Knight Frank,

Mckinsey estimates, Aranca Research

Note: E - Estimate

220 290

377

600

856

1,040

1,210

1,470

1991 2001 2011 2030E

Urban Population Total Population

5.1 5.3 5.2

5.8 6.3

6.6

5.3

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Foreign tourists arriving in India (million) In 2012, 6.6 million foreign tourists have arrived in India

Foreign Tourist arrival in India stood at 5.3 million during the

period January-October 2013

The number of foreign tourists arriving in India expanded at

a CAGR of 5.3 per cent during 2007–12

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research

Note: 2013* - Figures for the period Jan-October 2013

CAGR: 5.3%

10.7 11.8 11.1

14.2

16.6

17.7

14.6

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Foreign Exchange Earnings

Foreign exchange earnings from tourism in India

(USD billion)

India is estimated to have earned about USD17.7 billion

from the tourism sector in 2012

Foreign exchange earnings stood at USD14.6 billion during

the period January-October 2013

The growing inflows from tourists is expected to provide a

fillip to the hospitality sector

Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research

Note: 2013* - Figures for the period Jan-October 2013

CAGR: 10.6%

FDI in real estate as a per cent of total FDI in India Total FDI in the real estate sector during April 2000 –

September 2013 stood at around USD22.7 billion

Currently, real estate and construction accounts for over 22

per cent of total FDI, up from less than 4 per cent in 2006

Source: Dept of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Aranca Research

2.7%

6.3%

7.1% 7.4%

11.1%

0.7%

3.0%

8.9% 10.3% 11.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Construction activities Real Estate

Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research

Major acquisitions in real estate sector in India There have been 110 deals in the real estate space

between 2001 and the first half of 2011

The biggest disclosed deal was the acquisition of DLF

Assets’ shares by Caraf Builders for USD696 million Target Acquirer

Value

(USD

million)

Year

Caraf Builders DLF Assets ltd 696.5 2009

Cowtown Land

Dvlp Pvt Ltd Lodha Group 513.6 2011

Compact Disc Film

City Jeff Morgan 320 2011

Oceanus Real

Estate Warburg Pincus 318 2011

Indiabulls

Properties Pvt Ltd

Indiabulls Property

Invest Trust 223.1 2012

Embassy Property Blackstone 200 2012

Zenith Capitals

Limited

India Mansa

Developers Private

Limited

1.4 2013

Source: Grant Thornton, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research

Top PE deals in Indian real estate sector in 2012 Of the 43 private equity (PE) investments witnessed in the

sector during 2012, 35 had an announced value of USD1.14

billion

In terms of volume, residential projects accounted for 65 per

cent of overall investments in the sector during 2012, while

commercial projects accounted for 16 per cent

Foreign funds constituted almost 80 per cent of total

investments in the sector compared with 50 per cent in

2011

Mumbai continued to remain the hotspot for PE

investments, followed by Bengaluru and NCR

A shift in trend is evident from the fact that the maximum

number of PE deals in the year were executed through

Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) as against via both entity

and SPV modes in the previous year

Another major trend evident in recent times is the increasing

focus of private PE players on high-end and luxury projects

Investor Investee Investment

(USD million)

Blackstone

Manyata

Embassy

Business Park

160.0

APG and Group of

investors

Godrej

Properties 140.8

Government of Singapore

Investment Corporation

(GIC)

Godrej

Properties 98.2

Morgan Stanley Real

Estate Investment Supertech 91.4

Baring Private Equity

Partners India

Bengaluru

based RMZ

Corp

91.4

Morgan Stanley

Sheth

Developers

Private Limited

84.8

Source: Grant Thornton, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research

Top PE deals in Indian real estate sector in 2013

Investor Investee Investment

(USD million)

Blackstone Group,

HDFC, Embassy

Group

Vrindavan Tech

Village 367

Blackstone

HCC Real Estate

Ltd - 247 HCC

Park 169

Blackstone Panchshil Realty -

Eon Free Zone 81.82

Red Fort Capital Lotus Green

Developers 58.87

IFC Smart Value

Homes Ltd 50

The PE investments in real estate stood at USD276 million

during January-June 2013 with a total of 13 deals

Real Estate constituted 9 per cent of the total PE deal value

in Q3 2013 (July-September 2013)

For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org

Share of SEZ exports in total exports of India 100 per cent FDI permitted in real estate projects within

Special Economic Zone (SEZ)

100 per cent FDI permitted for developing townships within

SEZs with residential areas, markets, playgrounds, clubs,

recreation centers, etc.

Exports from SEZs registered a yoy growth of 30.6 per cent

in FY13 and accounted for 29 per cent of total exports

during FY 2013

Industry players, including realtors and property analysts,

are rooting for the creation of "special residential zones"

(SRZs), along the lines of SEZs

Minimum land requirement has been brought down from

1000 hectares to 500 hectares for multi-product SEZ and for

sector-specific SEZs to 50 hectares Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Aranca Research

Note: FY14* - April 2013 to June 2013

10% 12% 26% 28% 25% 29% 28%

90% 88% 74% 72% 75% 71% 72%

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY 14*

SEZ % of exports Other % of exports

For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org

Ease in housing

finances

• Additional deduction of up to USD1,841 on interests payable on home loans of up to

USD46,032 announced in the Union Budget 2013–14

• To liberalise scheme of interest subversion of 1 per cent on home loan by including loans

of up to USD31,250 for houses that cost up to USD52,080

Housing for

economically weaker

sections

• Allocation of USD1.1 billion for Rural Housing Fund in FY14 budget

• Allocation of USD0.37 billion for Urban Housing Fund in FY14 budget to bridge the huge

shortage of housing in certain urban areas

FDI

• The government has allowed FDI of up to 100 per cent in development projects for

townships and settlements

• FDI of up to 100 per cent is allowed in the hotel and tourism sector through the automatic

route

Source: Company website, Aranca Research

Note: sq ft - Square Feet

1940 1950 1980 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Development of 22 Urban

colonies

Developed 3000 acre

DLF City in Gurgaon

Focuses on IT Parks and

next generation malls

Building India’s largest mall

in Gurgaon

Market capitalisation of

USD7.32 billion as on 31

March 2013

Largest real estate company

with revenues of

USD0.72 billion (H1 FY14)

Ventures into

grade A office

spaces

Alliance with

Hilton

International

Commenced

development of

DLF Cyber City,

Gurgaon

FY13

USD1.4

billion

turnover

Net land bank of

348 million sq. feet

FY06

USD238

million

turnover

Founded by

Chaudhary

Raghavendra

Singh

Distribution of ongoing projects by area

(as of December 2012)

Key Facts

Started its first project in Mumbai in 1991

National real estate developer with presence across

12 cities

Differentiated joint development business model

resulted in a debt-equity ratio of less than one

The current potential developable area stands at

88.7* million sq ft

Ranked as one of India’s top 10 builders by

Construction World Architect & Builder Awards,

2011

Five new projects with 4.3 mn sq ft of saleable area

added to portfolio in FY13 YTD

Added 11 projects with 9.7 million sq ft saleable area

in the last six quarters

1 new project with 1.2 million sq ft of saleable area

added in NCR in Q2 FY14 along with additional 37

acres of contiguous land added to Panvel township

Source: Company website, Aranca Research

Note: * - As on September 30, 2013

81.6%

18.4%

Residential

Commercial

23.7

34.2

44.8 41.4

53.2

29.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14*

55.7 66.1

99.1

160.6

191.0

85.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14*

Profit before taxes (USD million) Total revenues (USD million)

Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research

Note: FY14* - Data for the period April 2013-September 2013

CAGR: 36%

CAGR: 22%

Real estate demand in education sector

(seven top cities)

The entry of major private players in the education sector

has created vast opportunities for the real estate sector

The top seven cities i.e. Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai,

Delhi, Pune, Chennai and Kolkata are likely to account for

70 per cent of total demand for real estate in the education

sector

Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research

Note: F - Forecast

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

2010

2011F

2012F

2013F

2014F

Area (million square feet)

Incremental demand across seven major cities

(million sq ft)

NCR is expected to have the highest incremental demand

from the education sector

The rising young population of India is expected to drive this

space

Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research

Note: NCR - National Capital Region

0

1

2

3

4NCR

Mumbai

Pune

ChennaiKolkata

Bengaluru

Hyderabad

Healthcare

• The healthcare sector is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 15 per cent to USD100

billion by 2015

• India is expected to need additional 937,000 beds by 2015

• India still needs to add 3 million hospital beds to meet the global average of three for every

1,000 people

Senior citizen housing

• Emergence of nuclear families and growing urbanisation has given rise to several

townships that are developed to take care of the elderly

• A number of senior citizen housing projects have been planned; the segment is expected

to grow significantly in future

Service apartments

• Growth in the number of tourists has resulted in demand for service apartments

• This demand is likely to be on uptrend and presents opportunities for the unorganised

sector

Source: Fitch Ratings, Aranca Research

Source: Ministry of Tourism, BMI, Aranca Research

Note: F - Forecast

Forecasts of foreign tourists arriving in India

(million)

Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to increase at a CAGR

of 11.7 per cent during 2012–15

The number of foreign tourists arriving in India by 2015 is

anticipated to be over 9.2 million

Foreign tourist arrivals during the period January to October

2013 were 5.3 million

6.6

7.9

8.5 9.2

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

CAGR: 11.7%

Source: BMI, Aranca Research

Note: F stands for Forecasts

Forecasts of foreign exchange earnings from

tourism in India (USD billion)

Foreign exchange earnings from tourism is expected to rise

at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent during 2012–15

Foreign exchange earned is forecast to cross USD19 billion

in 2015

Foreign exchange earnings from tourism during the period

January to October 2013 were USD14.6 billion

17.7 18.1

19.0

19.9

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F

CAGR: 4.1%

Source: BMI, Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research

Note: F - Forecast

Capacity of hotels in India (‘000) The number of hotel rooms in India as of 2011 stood at

121,000

50,000 new hotel rooms are expected to be added over the

next 4–5 years across India’s top six cities

The number of hotel beds in the country is expected to

increase to 443,000 by 2015

98 109 121

135 154

176 197

210 241

262 295

339

392

443

2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F

Number of hotel rooms Number of hotel beds

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research

Office market in Southern India (in million sq ft) The Southern Indian States – Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu

and Karnataka – have been the major drivers of economic

growth in India over the last decade. The three states

together account for about 22 per cent of India’s GDP

Nearly 45 per cent of India’s office stock is represented by

these states; over 64 per cent of the country’s IT SEZs are

housed in this region

Office stock in the Southern cities is projected* to grow at a

CAGR of 8 per cent between 2012 and 2016

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014F 2016F

Supply Net absorption Vacancy Rate - RHS

Note: * - Projections by Jones Lang LaSalle

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research

Net absorption rate in Southern India’s residential market is

once again climbing up to pre-crisis peaks; during 1Q12, net

absorption rate stood at 15.1 per cent, compared to 17.8 per

cent in 1Q08

A growing migrant population due to increasing job

opportunities, together with healthy infrastructure

development, is underpinning demand in the region’s

residential real estate market

Residential market in Southern India

(number of units)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12

New launches Net absorption Absorption rate - RHS

The Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI) National Secretariat, 703, Ansal Bhawan,

16, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110 001

Tel: (011) 43126262/43126200

Fax: 91 11 43126211

E-mail: info@credai.org

Website: www.credai.org

Builders' Association of India (BAI) G-1/G-20, Commerce Centre, J. Dadajee Road,

Tardeo, Mumbai – 400034

Tel: 91 22 23514134, 23514802, 23520507

Fax: 91 22 23521328

E-mail: bai@vsnl.com, baihq.mumbai@gmail.com

Website: www.baionline.in

BFSI: Banking, Financial Services and Insurance

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

CBD: Central Business District

FDI: Foreign Direct Investment

FSI: Floor Space Index

HNI: High Net-worth Individual

GOI: Government of India

INR: Indian Rupee

IT/ITeS: Information Technology/Information Technology enabled Services

MNC: Multinational Corporation

NRI: Non Resident Indian

SBD: Special Business District

SEZ: Special Economic Zone

USD: US Dollar

Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2004-05 44.95

2005-06 44.28

2006-07 45.28

2007-08 40.24

2008-09 45.91

2009-10 47.41

2010-11 45.57

2011-12 47.94

2012-13 54.31

2013-14 59.23 (April-October 2013)

Exchange rates (Fiscal year)

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2005 45.55

2006 44.34

2007 39.45

2008 49.21

2009 46.76

2010 45.32

2011 45.64

2012 54.69

2013 57.72 (Jan-October 2013)

Exchange rates (Calendar year)

Average for the year

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