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READY-TO-USE DATA New sources of open risk information.
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Transcript of READY-TO-USE DATA New sources of open risk information.
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READY-TO-USE DATANew sources of open risk information
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Global Assessment Report
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Global Risk Assessment
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RISK
What is “risk”?
consequences
uncertainty
eventsprobabilityseverity
• Risk is the probability of an adverse outcome (Graham and Weiner, 1995)
• Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects (Lowrance, 1976)
• Risk is the combination of probability of an event and its consequences (UNISDR, 2007)
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• Risk assessment thus analyse what could happen in a near future following hazardous events (e.g. floods, cyclones, earthquakes)
• Further than “what could happen”, the risk assessment also provide information on “how likely this is to happen”
• Once the decision makers know how likely and how severe the events (and their consequences) are, they can act upon them
What is “risk”?
RISKconsequences
uncertainty
eventsprobabilityseverity
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Global Exposure Database• The Global Exposure Database provides the distribution of the value of
the urban built environment around the world in a 5Km x 5 Km grid
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Global hazard assessment• Earthquake Hazard for different return periods, developed using the open
source program CRISIS2012 (www.ecapra.org)
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• Cyclonic wind hazard for different return periods, developed using the open source program ERN-Hurricane (www.ecapra.org)
Global hazard assessment
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• Tsunami hazard for ~1 in 500 years return period
Global hazard assessment
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• Global Flood Model, pilot study for Thailand
Global hazard assessment
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CAPRACOMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT
www.ecapra.org
Global Risk Assessment
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• Annual Average Losses (AAL)Estimated average loss per year, over a long time period and considering the range of loss scenarios with different occurrence probabilities
• Probable Maximum Losses (AAL)Maximum loss that could be experienced in the occurrence of a disaster with a particular return period
Global Risk Assessment
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Global Risk Assessment
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Global Risk Assessment
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Drought Hazard and Risk• Agricultural drought hazard for Africa and the Mediterranean Regions
between 2000 and 2010• Assessment of likelihood of crop losses for Mali, Niger, Mozambique and
Kenya
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OPEN QUAKE• Developed by the Global Earthquake Model
• Web-based risk assessment platform, an integrated environment for modelling, viewing, exploring, and managing earthquake risk
… Looking forward
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Global Volcano ModelA sustainable, accessible platform for information on volcanic hazard
and risk
CEVWOVO
GNS New
Zealand
VHUB
UNAM
• Global assessment of relative threat for each volcano at a national scale
• Regional stochastic models of volcanic ashfall and risk case studies
… Looking forward
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All the GAR13 (and more) data available from:www.preventionweb/gar
Further information on data uses, methods and tools in the Global Assessment Report 2013 Annex 1
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Thank you
www.preventionweb.net/gar