Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith.
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Transcript of Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith.
![Page 1: Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649e6b5503460f94b68bbd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Rational Voting
POLS 4349Dr. Brian William Smith
![Page 2: Rational Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062407/56649e6b5503460f94b68bbd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Office Hours
• When– Today- no office hours– Wed 10-2– And by appointment
• Doyle 226B
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Learning Outcomes I
• Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.
• Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice
• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process
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Readings
• Chapter 3: Partisanship (67-72) (Flanigan)
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THE RATIONAL VOTER MODELShould We Vote?
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Rational Choice Theory of Voting
• When Should We Vote?
• Who should We Vote For?
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The Rational Voting Calculus
• C= Cost of participation• B= Benefit of voting• P= Probability that your vote matters • D= The civic duty term
C> PB +D We Stay At HomeC< PB +D We Vote
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BP +DBenefits, Probability of Deciding an Election, Civic Duty
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Benefits From Voting (B Term)
• Direct benefits
• Policy Benefits
• Desire to see one side win
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Civic Duty (D Term)
• Democracy is the reward for voting
• If you believe this to be a high reward, you should vote
• It can be a long term investment
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The Rational Voting Calculus
C> PB +D We Stay At Home
C< PB +D We Vote
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Partisanship
Still the biggest factor in vote choice
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The Social-Psychological Model (Michigan Model
This Not-This
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The Michigan Model
• The Funnel of Causality– The events leading up to vote day
– Socialization and temporal forces
• Party Identification remains the most important part of the model
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Party Identification
• The same as Partisanship
• The Single Best Predictor for how people vote
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What is Party Identification
• The Concept of party identification
• When do we get it
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The Development of Party ID
• How We Use it
• How it evolves throughout our lives
• The importance of strong partisans
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Strong partisans hold more extreme positions
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Party Identification
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Measuring Party ID through the Normal Vote
• The Normal Vote is when people vote 100% along straight Party lines
• What might cause deviations?
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Democratic Normal Vote
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Republican Normal Vote
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The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008
• Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain
• There are more Democrats in the electorate
• Obama wins
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2008 Vote by Party ID
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THE 2010 ELECTIONTurnout and party Id
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Turnout in 2010
• Very Similar to 2006
• A Smaller Electorate than 2008
• 42% overall
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Midyear Tends to be boring
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Low Motivation from The Left
• Every Democratic Group claimed responsibility for President Obama’s Victory
• Supporters wanted immediate policy change on their issue
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Who Voted?
• GOP was more energized
• More conservative
• Older
• Whiter
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Party ID Rules the Day
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Groups most likely to vote Democratic stayed at home, and enabled the GOP to win at all levels
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The Big Question for 2012 was which electorate would we get: 2008 or 2010?
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WHAT ABOUT INDEPENDENTSThose Wacky Fellows
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Two Perceptions of Independents
• Wise people who are logical, rational and vote the man not the party
• Apolitical morons who do not know anything about politics.
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Independents Matter
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Why they Matter
• 1/3 of the electorate
• Necessary to get their support
• Often Break for the Wining Candidate– 2004 vs. 2008
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The Independent Leaner
• Claim to be independent
• Actually lean to one of the parties
• Have the same behavior as partisans
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The Pure Independent
• The growth in Independents is not from this group.
• Only 7-8% of the population
• Less likely to vote and more likely to vote for third party candidates.
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Very Few Have No Preference