CLIMATE CHANGE:

GLOBAL CHALLENGE FOR SURVIVAL

ESTER AGUILAR, EMBESTER AGUILAR, EMBESTER AGUILAR, EMBESTER AGUILAR, EMB----CARCARCARCAR

OUTLINE

�Global Scenarios

�Climate Change

�Causes (Natural and Artificial)

� Impacts

�Global Response to Climate Change

�Philippine Response to Climate Change

�What can be done?

The Thames Barrier, a major flood defense system

in London designed to be used once every two to

three years is now being used six times a year due to increased rainfall.

Mean annual temperature across Australia for 2008 was the 14th warmest on record (0.41°C above normal).

In China, 6 million people suffer from persistent drought in SW China's Yunnan

Some areas face drought after January saw as little as 10 percent of average rainfall, frozen lakes are melting and trees are blossoming in the capital Beijing

� Darfur, Sudan:

� world’s 1st war triggered by climate change

� rainfall decline by 20%

� Drought & intense friction over land

U.N. Statistics show that rainfall has diminished by 20%

in Sudan the past 20 years, causing drought and intense

friction over access to land.

Myanmar

In May 2008,

Cyclone Nargis

devastated

Myanmar

resulting in

death toll of

22,000 Source: Asia News

In February of 2006, an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 people died after a school and an estimated 500

houses in the village of Guinsaugon, St. Bernard, Leyte was buried by mudflow.

This mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped

459.2 millimeters of rain on the area in the span of

3 days.

In September 28, 2006, super typhoon Milenyo – the strongest

typhoon to hit Metro Manila in seven years, cut across Luzon, leaving at

least 18 people dead

In June 21 2008, Typhoon Frank lashes the Philippines

The capsized MV Princess of the Stars in Romblon

(800 passengers killed)

Typhoon ONDOY (September 2009) brought the

heaviest rains and floods since 1967.

(410 mm – 9 hour)

Marikina Cainta, Rizal

•Typhoon PEPENG

(October 2009)

affecting Cordillera

Administrative Region

(675 mm – 24 hr)

•City Camp Lagoon

•Puguis, La Trinidad

•Balili Bridge

Dec 17, 2011 –SENDONG

(Cagayan De Oro & Iligan)

CLIMATE CHANGE = CHANGE IN CLIMATE

attributable directly to human activity that alters the composition

of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

CLIMATE CHANGE

GLOBAL WARMING

(Increase in Global Temperature)

GLOBAL WARMING (Increase in Green House Gases)

The Greenhouse Effect It’s a good thing!

PFCs

HFCs

SF6

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

H2O

Water vapor

CO2

Carbon Dioxide

CH4

Methane

NO2

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CH4

N2O HFCs

PFCs SF6

CO2 CO2

CH4 CO2 N2O CH4

HFCs

SF6 SF6

CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2 CO2

CH4

N2O

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

Greenhouse Gas Sources

TOTAL: 100,738 kt

CO2

Source: 1994

Philippine GHG

Inventory

Greenhouse Gases

CO2

burning of

carbon-based fuels

Carbon Dioxide Methane

Hydro fluorocarbons Nitrous Oxide

CH4

anaerobic bacteria in rice fields, cows,

sewage,garbage

CFCs

Refrigeration and spray cans

N2O

Fossil fuels and fertilizers

CARBON DIOXIDE METHANE

NITROUS OXIDE

- Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Ocean

CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels

(Oil, Coal) by Power plants, Industries and

Vehicles

Accounts for 60% of warming effect

Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste

Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production

Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects; 21 times more potent than CO2

Nitrous Oxide: • Accounts for 7% of the warming effect •Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans • Fertilizer and Pesticides (Agriculture) • Biomass Burning • Combustion Process Vehicles • Acid Production

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)

Reduced ability of Ecosystem to Absorb Greenhouse Gases

RAPID INCREASE IN EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE GASES

� Carbon Dioxide--------------------- 30%

� Methane ----------------------------- 145%

� Nitrous Oxide ---------------------- 15%

INCREASE

in 200 Years

20th Century Global Warming

�1990’s = Warmest Decade

�1998 = Warmest Year Since 1861

� 1890 – 1990 = 0.5 – 1.° F

� 2000 – 2100 = 2.0 – 6.° F

Increase in Global Temp.

�TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN 100 YEARS UNPRECEDENTED

�90% CERTAINLY THAT TEMPERATURE INCREASE DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES

�SEA LEVEL TO RISE BY 0.18- 0.38 METER BY 2100

(0.3◦C to 0.56◦C)

(1.1◦C to 3.3◦C)

Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased as a result of human activities since 1750.

11 of the last 12 years

(1995-2006) rank among

the 12th warmest years

since 1850.

GHG Pre. Indl 2005

CO2 280 ppm 379 ppm

CH4 700 ppb 1774 ppb

N2O 270 ppb 319 ppb

OVERALL WARMING OF THE PLANET, BASED ON AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OVER THE ENTIRE

SURFACE (IPCC)

� ACCELERATE MELTING OF GLACIERS

� INCREASE OF SEA LEVEL

Inundation/ Flooding of Low Lying Areas and Small Islands

� Global Warming will melt polar ice caps and glaciers. Arctic temperature twice the global rate.

� 13,500 sq. km. ice shelves disintegrated in Antarctica

� Threaten Earth’s permafrost

Greenpeace Photo taken at Blomstrandbreen Glacier in a remote Arctic island

Flight of polar bears on melting ice

>FLOODING

�EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE

� Longer droughts have been observed since the

1970’s

CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE

DISRUPT CYCLE OF

PLANTING AND

HARVESTING

DISRUPTS FEEDING HABITS,

MIGRATION AND

REPRODUCTIVE PATTERN OF ANIMALS

DEVASTATIONS FROM EL NINO AND LA NINA

�LOW PRODUCTIVITY AND

FOOD SHORTAGE

�LOSS OF INCOME OF POOR FARMERS AND FISHERMEN

EFFECT TO RESILIENCE OF ECOSYSTEMS

� Changing weather patterns alter migration and reproduction

patterns of species

� HEALTH RISKS:

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > HEATWAVES & EXTREME COLD FRONTS

--- HIGH RISK FOR THE OLD, THE SICK, CHILDREN AND THE POOR

�Typhoons and Floods

The Philippines is located in the typhoon belt. An average of 20 typhoons visit the country every

year

Source: PAGASA

LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS

32,400 Kilometers, Longest Coastline

����INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ESTABLISHED BY UNITED NATIONS IN 1988:

-- PROVIDE SCIENTIFIC PROOF OF CLIMATE CHANGE -- ASSESS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT -- FORMULATE RESPONSE STRATEGIES

1990 – IPCC SCIENTIFICALLY CONFIRMED EXISTENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

•UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

(UNFCCC) SIGNED BY 154 HEADS OF STATES/REPRESENTATIVES IN RIO DE

JANEIRO IN 1992:

•ENTERED INTO FORCE IN MARCH 1994

•AGREEMENT TO STABILIZE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

•DEVELOPED COUNTRIES COMMITTED TO REDUCE THEIR GREENHOUSE

GAS EMISSIONS TO 1990 LEVEL BY YEAR 2000.

•MANDATED ALL MEMBERS TO HAVE INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS AND DEVELOP STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS TO ADAPT TO AND

MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

•Provided flexibility to developed

countries in meeting their emission

reductions.

•Established the Clean Development

Mechanism or CDM,

•Allows Developed Countries to Offset

their Greenhouse Gas Emission by

buying Equivalent amount from projects

intended to absorb Greenhouse Gases

•Majority of Projects are in Developing

Countries

���� KYOTO PROTOCOL ADOPTED BY 10,000 DELEGATES IN KYOTO, JAPAN

-- ENTERED INTO FORCE In FEBRUARY 2004 PRESENTLY, 169

COUNTRIES HAVE RATIFIED THE

PROTOCOL

-- PROVIDE FOR CLEARER AND

BIGGER TARGET OF 5%

REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY DEVELOPED

COUNTRIES BY 2012

-- NO REDUCTION REQUIREMENT

FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Addressing Climate Change:

Adaptation Measures PREVENT/MINIMIZE LOSS OF LIVES, DAMAGE TO

PROPERTIES AND ENSURE FOOD SECURITY

Mitigation Measures PREVENT/REDUCE GREENHOUSE GASES

The Philippines is a signatory and have ratified both the United Nations Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto

Protocol

•Bio-Fuels Programs

•Ethanol

•Jethropa (Initial 375,000 Hectares Allocated for Production)

•CoCo-Diesel

•Compressed Natural Gas

Signed Memorandum of

Understanding, with Chinese investor

R. A NO. 9637 – BIOFUEL ACT

MANDATORY MIXING IN THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT:

1% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 5% ETHANOL IN GASOLINE FOR FIRST 4 YEARS. 2% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 1O% ETHANOL IN GASOLINE AFTER 4 YEARS.

� CAMPAIGN AGAINST VIOLATORS OF

ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS

�CAMPAIGN VS.

SMOKE BELCHERS

�CAMPAIGN VS.

POLLUTING INDUSTRIES

RA 9003 – ECOLOGICAL SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT

WASTE MANAGEMENT:

643 OPEN DUMPSITES

384 CONTROLLED DUMPSITES

98 SANITARY LANDFILL

NSWMC, 3rd Q 2011

ASSISTING LGU’S IN

WASTE PROPER

MANAGEMENT

NSWMC, 3rd Q 2011

•Cordillera Administrative Region

(Abra, Apayao, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mt.

Province and Baguio City)

→Safe Disposal of Residual Wastes

• There are 18 open and controlled dumpsites in the Region and 3

sanitary landfills being constructed in the municipalities of La Trinidad, Benguet; Bangued, Abra and Alfonso Lista, Ifugao

No. of MRFs

No. of Brgys served

Total no. of brgys

Compliance rate

158 167 1,174 14.22%

→Reduction of wastes to be disposed

→Volume of waste generated ● 600 tons per day

• 13.5 tons per day of Methane produced

Province No. of MRF Total Barangays Rate of

Compliance

Benguet 37 143 25.87 %

Apayao 27 131 20.61%

Kalinga 6 150 4.00%

Ifugao 5 175 2.80%

Mt. Province 63 144 43.75%

Abra 12 303 3.96%

Total 150 1046 14.34%

•Number of MRFs per Province

• SHIFT IN ENERGY MIX FROM FOSSIL FUELS (OIL

AND COAL) TO RENEWABLE SOURCES (WATER, WIND, NATURAL GAS, GEOTHERMAL, SOLAR)

• PRESENT MIX: FOSSIL FUELS- 58.4% AND RENEWABLE SOURCES- 41.6%

• TARGET: FOSSIL FUELS – 49.2% AND RENEWABLE SOURCES- 50.8% BY 2014.

Bangui

(Wind power)

Leyte

(Geothermal plant)

Ambuklao Dam (Hydropower)

58 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects from

Philippines registered at CDM Executive Board. 2.26 M

CERs. Most are waste to energy projects.

Philippines Ranks 10th in the World in terms of Number of

CDM Projects Accepted by U.N.

CDM projects submitted to DENR, these are waste to

energy, renewable energy (wind, geothermal and hydro),

Biogas and Composting Project

STRATEGIES/MEASURE

EXPAND VEGETATION COVER

ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

NEED MORE TREESNEED MORE TREESNEED MORE TREESNEED MORE TREES

� EVERYBODY TO PLANT 10 TREES/ YEAREVERYBODY TO PLANT 10 TREES/ YEAREVERYBODY TO PLANT 10 TREES/ YEAREVERYBODY TO PLANT 10 TREES/ YEAR

� E.O. 26 (2011 TO 2016)E.O. 26 (2011 TO 2016)E.O. 26 (2011 TO 2016)E.O. 26 (2011 TO 2016)

� 2011 : NATIONAL GREENING PROGRAM = 2011 : NATIONAL GREENING PROGRAM = 2011 : NATIONAL GREENING PROGRAM = 2011 : NATIONAL GREENING PROGRAM =

1.5 BILLION1.5 BILLION1.5 BILLION1.5 BILLION TREES FOR TREES FOR TREES FOR TREES FOR 1.5 MILLION HECTARES1.5 MILLION HECTARES1.5 MILLION HECTARES1.5 MILLION HECTARES

*ENHANCE WATER

RETENTION, MINIMIZE FLOODING, EROSION

AND SILTATION AND PROTECT OUR AGRICULTURAL AND COASTAL AREAS, PROVIDE HABITAT FOR OUR BIODIVERSITY & CREATE MORE CARBON SINK TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING

*ENHANCE WATER

RETENTION, MINIMIZE FLOODING, EROSION

AND SILTATION AND PROTECT OUR AGRICULTURAL AND COASTAL AREAS, PROVIDE HABITAT FOR OUR BIODIVERSITY & CREATE MORE CARBON SINK TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING

� ADAPTATION MEASURES TO MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE:

•GEO-HAZARD MAPPING - IDENTIFY AREAS MOST

VULNERABLE TO LANDSLIDES

AND FOREWARN COMMUNITIES.

•COMPLETED GEO-HAZARD

MAPPING OF 27 PROVINCES

LOCATED IN EASTERN SEABOARD (MOST VULNERABLE TO TYPHOONS.

���� Climate Change Act signing ���� Climate Change Act signing

October 23, 2009 * Malacañang

R.A. 9729 - CLIMATE CHANGE ACT OF 2009

R.A. 9729 - CLIMATE CHANGE ACT OF 2009

SALIENT FEATURES OF RA 9729

�Creation of CCC

�National Climate Change Plan (National)-NCCAP

�Local Climate Change Plan (LGUs) - LCCAP

WHAT CAN WE DO?

WHAT CAN

PATLEPAM

DO?

Care

Help Act New Green Empower

“Climate change will not be effectively managed until

individuals and communities

recognize that their behavior

can make a difference.”

The Royal Society, Climate Change: what we know

and what we need to know. (2002)