R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann Management of Controversial Technologies Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier...
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Transcript of R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann Management of Controversial Technologies Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier...
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Management of Controversial Technologies
Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier
Dipl. Ing. Andreas Biedermann
www.tim.ethz.ch
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Financial costs of technical disasters are rising
OECD (2003): 35
Financial Costs of Natural Disasters (bn US$)
Financial Costs of Technological Disasters (bn US$)
24000e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
AsbestosDelay of 50 years between cause and effect
Gee et al. (2001): 52
1989: EPA ban on most products
24003e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
DDT: Banned forever?
1874 First synthesis of DDT (not recognized as insecticide)
1939 DDT recognized as insecticide
1948 P. H. Müller, Swiss chemist, Geigy AG. Nobel Prize: “for his discovery of the high efficiency DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods.”
1962 Rahel Carson (US), publishes Silent Spring: DDT = cancer: Public outcry
1970 Banned for agricultural uses in many countries
1972 Banned in US (virtually all uses)
2001 Stockholm convention (Dirty Dozen)
2004 Stockholm convention effective:Signed by 98 countries
2005 Still in use in tropical countries,but much less concentrated
Fighting malaria with DDT in Congo. © by Spiegel Magazine
24009e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
When substitute available, industry reacts quickly
25878
TechnologyDominant Design?
LawBan?
Market penetration ofmercury technologyfor chlorine production
Many different
technologies
Dominant DesignMercury
Big accidents / late effectsMinamata, Iraq
Public PressureJapan, European Union
Substitutionnew: Membrane Technology
Niches
StrategyNew dominant design?
Phase out time?
Time
Uncertainty
Boutellier, Biedermann (2005)
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Sometimes, regulation is fuzzy
EuroChlor (2004) and Short, P.L. (2001)
2010
2020
Mercury Phase-Out Commitment 1990
Mercury Phase-Out Commitment 2000
Chlorine Production in Europe
Diaphragm Mercury Membrane OthersTechnologies:
24011e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Some technologies can be improved without additional costs
Graphics: http://www.eurochlor.org/chlorine/reviews/2004/A809-02.htm
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
air
waste water
product
Grams mercury per ton of chlorineProcess: mercury
Late Phase-Out / No Phase Out
24013e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Scientific results depend on who pays!
Analysis:vom Saal (2005)
“Are low doses of Bisphenol A harmful?”
Estrogenic activity of Bisphenol A mentioned in 1936:21 years prior to first industrial application
Uncertainty
0
50
100
Number of studies
(1996-2005)
Public funding Industrialfunding h
arm
ful sa
fe
24014e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
The regulator favors the precautionary principle
Genetically modified plants in Switzerland
Take action even if not “proven” Restrictions for GMOs in food
Use safety factors Distance between plants in field tests
As safe as possible Laboratory tests
Complete stop if possible Field applications banned
24018e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Fault liabilityIntention or negligence
Swiss Code of Obligations (Art. 41, 1911)
Causal liability EU: Liability for Defective Products (Art. 1, 1985)
Stringent causal liability (in general)No irregularity required
German Environmental Liability Act (§1 & 6, 1990)
Stringent causal liability (specific)Dangerous circumstances trigger liability.
Possible for GMOs contaminating bio-quality crops.
Application of civil-law liability standards EU proposal: Liability for biological diversity (2000)
Retroactive application of liability Tendency, especially in environmental liability
Liability gets ever more stringent
according to SwissRe (2001)
24035e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Decisions are taken in a complex environment
Controversial TechnologyMercury Cells
Technology Users
Chlorine Manufacturers
Alternative TechnologiesMembrane Cells, Diaphragm Cells
ProductChlorine
Product UsersPVC & CFC industry, Paper
industry, homes
RegulatorsEuropean Union, Japan, USA
AffectedSea abutters, population
Mercury Ban
Paris Convention
Sid
e-e
ffec
tsM
ina
ma
ta B
ay, Ira
q,
bio
accu
mu
latio
n, e
tc.
Bu
yin
g p
atte
rns
“ozo
ne
-frien
dly”
Re
jectio
n o
f Ch
lorin
e
Public
Technology Suppliers
Plant constructors
Mon
treal
Proto
col
Boutellier, Biedermann (2005)
24012e
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Laws need time, technology speeds up, who closes the gap?
25878
Technology SpeedNumber of activities
Technical Innovations
Time
Late effects detection:Cause-effect know-how
Laws
PublicDiscussions Scientific
Political
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Controversial Technologies: Today and tomorrow
25878
Phase-out decided Phase-out possible
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)Aerosol cans: ozone depletion
Bisphenol APlastics: endocrine disruptor (?)
AsbestosBrake pads: cancer
Electromagnetic radiationMobiles: heating of brain (?)
Polychlorinated BiphenylsSealing: endocrine disruptors
PhthalatesFloor covering: cancer (?)
Mercury CellsChlorine: mercury in biosphere
Printer TonersLaser Printers: allergies (?)
Lead in ElectronicsPCs: lead in biosphere
AerosolsAir Freshener: allergies (?)
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Phase-Out: Timing has to be chosen carefully
25878
TechnologyChlorine production with mercury
Accidents, late effectsMinamata, Iraq
Pressure to phase out
Early Change+ conformity with law+ (public perception)- cost (innovation)
Late Change+ more information available+ cost (mature technology)- public perception
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Implications for the Management
25878
Be ready for surprises Public and political discussion Timeline not sure Impossible to identify all problems at market introduction
Keep reasonable options open Lock-in effect Technology acceptance can change very quickly No quick fixes
Be aware of major trends Change in the public perception Liability policies New measurement methods
R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann
Management of Controversial Technologies
Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier
Dipl. Ing. Andreas Biedermann
www.tim.ethz.ch