Q3 Investor CallQ3 Investor Call. 2 Disclaimer ... By attending this presentation or by reading the...
Transcript of Q3 Investor CallQ3 Investor Call. 2 Disclaimer ... By attending this presentation or by reading the...
September 2016
Q3 Investor Call
2
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) and/or its subsidiaries and affiliates (“Corral”). The information contained in this presentation is for information purposes only.
Among other things, this presentation is intended to be used in connection with a scheduled international conference call for investors and analysts to be held on December 5, 2016 at 4:00 pm CET. The call-in number is +46 8 5052 0110 and the meeting code is Preem.
The conference call will also be available for replay for a limited time beginning on December 6, 2016 with access information to be posted via the "Press and Notices" heading of the Corral investors section of Preem's website at https://www.preem.se/en/in-english/investors/corral/results-and-reporting/.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be used as the basis for making an investment decision. You are solely responsible for seeking independent professional advice in relation to the information. This presentation is not and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation, invitation or recommendation to purchase any securities in the United States or any other jurisdiction. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) or an exemption from registration. This presentation may not be reproduced, disseminated, quoted or referred to, in whole or in part. This presentation speaks as of the date of this presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. Neither the shareholders of Corral nor any directors, officers, employees, agents or representatives of Corral, provide, grant or state, any representation, warranty, guarantee, undertaking or obligation, whether express or implied and whether by operation of law or otherwise, regarding or in relation to the completeness or the accuracy of the information contained in this presentation, and they are under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained in this presentation, to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in this presentation are subject to change without notice. No liability whatsoever for any loss, howsoever arising, from any use of this presentation or its contents is accepted by any such person in relation to such information.
Certain financial data included in the presentation are “non-IFRS financial measures.” These non-IFRS financial measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures presented by other entities, nor should they be construed as an alternative to other financial measures determined in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). Although Corral believes these non-IFRS financial measures provide useful information to users in measuring the financial performance and condition of its business, users are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any non-IFRS financial measures and ratios included in this presentation.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Examples of these forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to statements of plans, objectives or goals and statements of assumptions underlying those statements. Words such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “intend”, “plan”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “continue”, “probability”, “risk” and other similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying those statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and risks exist that such predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. A number of important factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. Past performance of Corral cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation. Corral, its agents and advisors and all of their employees expressly disclaim any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in this presentation. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast. As such, undue influence should not be placed on any forward-looking statement.
By attending this presentation or by reading the presentation slides, you are agreeing to be bound by the foregoing limitations and restrictions and, in particular, will be deemed to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this disclaimer.
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Highlights
• Weighted refining margin for the third quarter of 2016 was 3.25 $/bbl compared to 7.95 $/bbl in the third
quarter of 2015. The global inventory levels remain on high levels and continue to keep the diesel margin
under pressure.
• Stable results from the Marketing division where higher diesel margins are due to high profitability from HVO
• Cash flow from operating activities for the third quarter of 2016 was 747 MSEK compared to 560 MSEK in the
third quarter of 2015
• On November 28, 2016 Preem performed the calculations necessary under Preem’s Credit Facility to upstream
excess cash to Corral Petroleum Holdings with respect to the upcoming January 1, 2017 interest payment on
the Notes, including the minimum liquidity test. The calculation showed an outcome that was satisfactory
• VDU – project and investment according to plan
• Norway – up and running with a depot in Sandefjord, still a minor operation with limited financial impact
• Beowulf – environmental permit application is planned to be submitted in the last quarter of 2016
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Market Outlook
Comments
Supply/Demand
• XXXXXXXXXX
• YYYYYYYYYYY
• ZZZZZZZZZ
Supply/Demand
• Oil markets had been in a bearish mood for two main
reasons :
Excess physical supply weighing down on
benchmarks -- higher Opec output and lower
China crude oil demand.
Market actors looking for positive signals --
however, the recently reported Opec deal could
provide enough positive sentiment to support
prices until the market naturally rebalances later
in 2017
• Surplus stocks reduced by an average of 0.7 MBD in 2Q
and 3Q’16
• Surplus stocks expected to be gone by the end of 2Q’17
-- thereafter the global markets are expected to face a
supply deficit
Brent Crude
Source: Nasdaq
Source: PIRA
Products
Gasoline crack spread Diesel crack spread HS Fuel oil crack spread
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl
5 yr Range (2011-2015) 2015
2016 5 yr Average (2011-2015)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl
5 yr Range (2011-2015) 2015
2016 5 yr Average (2011-2015)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$/bbl
5 yr Range (2011-2015) 2015
2016 5 yr Average (2011-2015)
Source: Platts
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$/bbl
Refining margin ($/bbl) 10 year average 5 year average
Refining Margin and Production 2006-2015 (+ LTM 2016)
Refining margin Production
LTM Q3-16110 459
10yr:
109,041
5yr:
110,017
80 000
85 000
90 000
95 000
100 000
105 000
110 000
115 000
120 000
125 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000's bbls
Production 10 year average 5 year average
10 yr: 4,65 $/bbl
5 yr: 4,55 $/bbl
LTM Q3-16: 4,01
$/bbl
September 2016
Q3 Financial Summary
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Group Q3 16 Results
Revenue (MSEK)(a) Comments
Revenue
• The impact of decreasing crude oil prices main reason behind the decreased revenues
• Lower throughput (approximately 8% lower in Q3 2016 compared to Q3 2015), driven by Lysekil Iso-cracker maintenance in 2016 and lower margins.
Adjusted EBITDA(a)
• Refining margin for the third quarter of 2016 was 3.25 $/bblcompared to 7.95 $/bbl in the third quarter of 2015.
• Lower diesel and gasoline crack main reason behind the lower margin
LTM: (26)%, Q3: (18)%RevenueChange
Adj EBITDA(a)
change
Q3 15: 11.1% LTM 15: 7.7%
Adj EBITDA margin
(% of revenue)
(a) As defined in the Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) report for the third quarter ended 30 September 2016
LTM: (48)%, Q2: (69)%
Q3 16: 4.2% LTM 16: 5.4%
Adjusted EBITDA
16 999 13 964
70 549
52 294
2015 2016
Q3 LTM Q3
1 889
589
5 462
2 834
2015 2016
Q3 LTM Q3
30 377 27 926
118 319 113 491
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
(8)% (4)%
50,47 44,8960,60
42,25
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
Throughput
• Maintenance of the Lysekil Iso-cracker reduced throughput in Q3 2016, combined with lower margins. Given high utilization levels throughout 2015, a greater focus on deferred maintenance in LTM Q3 2016
Average Brent Crude Price(a)
• During the third quarter of 2016, the price of Dated Brent initially trended downwards to a low of 40 $/bbl in the beginning of August before climbing to almost 50 $/bbl. The quarter ended at 48 $/bbl
• Data showing reduced crude oil production in the non-OPEC countries and increased demand supported the crude oil price
Refining Margin
• The decrease in operating profit was mainly due to weak margins, especially driven by the diesel crack. The global inventory levels remain on high levels and continue to keep the diesel margin under pressure.
Comments
Supply & Refining Segment
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Average Brent Crude Price ($/bbl)(a)
Refining Margin($/bbl)(a)
(11)% (30)%
(a) Please see the Appendix for definitions
(59)% (42)%
Throughput (000 bbls)
7,95
3,256,90
4,01
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
10
Marketing Segment
Revenue (MSEK) Comments
Revenue
• Sales volumes increased 1% quarter over quarter while crude oil and refined product prices reduced over the period
Marketing EBITDA(a)
• Q3: Quarterly Marketing EBITDA was higher due to higher product margins (especially diesel) and slightly increasing volumes
• LTM Q3: Increased earnings is attributable to higher diesel margins mainly due to high profitability from HVO (hydrogenated vegetable oil). HVO is tax exempt in Sweden and currently the profitability on HVO products is relatively high within the Swedish market, the effect YTD 2016 is 160 MSEK, vs 60 MSEK YTD 2015
• Sales volumes +2% in the LTM Q3 period
Marketing EBITDA (MSEK)(a)
(9)% (14)%
3.1% 5.0% 3.2% 4.1%Adj EBITDA
margin(% of revenue)
(a) Please see the Appendix for definition
47% 9%
4 064 3 715
16 33014 040
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
125184
523571
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
Cash Flow
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• Adjustments not included in cash flow are primarily deprecation and unrealized FX effects and write downs of inventory (or reversals)
• Crude oil prices are the main driver of the change in working capital. Additionally, inventory volumes as at September 2016 totalled 2.5 million m3 vs 2.2 million m3 in Q3 2015. Isolated Q3 2016, the increased inventory value is offset by the liabilities.
• Capex development is detailed on page 12
• The loan expenditures of 679 MSEK relates to the refinancing of both Preem AB and Corral Petroleum Holdings which was completed in May
• Cash flow used in financing activities is mainly attributable to scheduled repayment of loans as well as (net) repayment of loans under Preem´s
revolving credit facility
Comments(MSEK) Q3 15 Q3 16LTM Q3
15LTM Q3
16
Profit before taxes -175 -357 -2 054 -817
Adjustments for items not included in cash flow 1 046 748 3 181 3 383
Tax paid 0 0 4 0
Decrease(+)/Increase(-) in inventories 774 -1 070 2 721 -457
Decrease(+)/Increase(-) in operating receivables 452 369 1 502 222
Decrease(-)/Increase(+) in operating liabilities -1 537 1 057 -2 249 357
Changes in working capital -312 357 1 974 122
Cash flow from operating activities 560 747 3 105 2 688
Cash flow used in investing activities -225 -326 -981 -1 216
335 422 2 124 1 472
Amortization/Raising of loans -159 -491 -2 762 -686
Loan expenditure - -2 - -679
Cash flow used in financing activities -159 -493 -2 762 -1 365
Cash flow for the period 177 -71 -638 107
Specific Projects
• A new Vacuum Distillation Unit at Preemraff Lysekil 129 MSEK LTM Q3 2016, project is on-going
• GHT (Green Hydro Treater) project in Gothenburg 255 MSEK LTM Q3 2015
Incremental Improvements
• ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) implementation 104 MSEK LTM Q3 2016, three steps sequential planned go-live during 2017 and 2018
Recurring maintenance
• A replacement of the subheader HPU (Hydrogen Production Unit)
Preemraff Lysekil (107 MSEK)
• Recurring maintenance in the station network (17 MSEK)
Future investments
• In November the Preem Board approved a 635 MSEK investment in a Hydrogen Production Unit at the Gothenburg refinery. This attractive profitability investment, which we expect will be mechanically complete by the end of 2018, is designed to further increase the refinery’s desulphurization capacity and allow increased production of renewable diesel in Gothenburg
Comments
Capital Expenditures
12
Capex by Purpose (MSEK)(a)
(a) Shown on a gross basis.
116195
485
725
37
57
179
210
72
81
323
285
Q3 15 Q3 16 LTM Q3 15 LTM Q3 16
Recurring maintenance Incremental improvements
Specific projects
225
333
987
1220
Term Loan - Fully PaidCurrent Cap Structure at the end of Q3 16
Simplified capital structure
13
(a) Based on period end 30 September 2016 exchange rate of 8.62 SEK/USD(b) Based on LTM Q3 2016 Adjusted EBITDA of $329m (2,834 MSEK)(c) Excludes deeply subordinated debt held by our ultimate shareholder
MSEK $M USD(a) x Adjusted EBITDA(b)
Cash (88) (10) (0.0)x
RCF 5,574 647 2.0x
TLA 0.0x
Overdraft facility & Other interest bearing liabilities
275 32 0.1x
Total net debt at Preem
5,761 668 2.0x
2021 Corral Notes 5,917 687 2.1x
Cash (445) (53) (0.2)x
Total 3rd party debt(c) 11,223 1,302 4.0x
4 244
3 984
3 211
1 913
836
553
280
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16
Liquidity Reserves
Note: Drawndown and availability figures are not IFRS measures and are based on month end values averaged over the course of the year. In part, these values are internal calculations based on variables that are subjectively determined and which may not be comparable in approach to similar calculations of other companies 14
• The Minimum Liquidity Test was successfully performed in November 2016, showing 30 day average liquidity at $364 million and liquidity on the Confirmation Date at $453 million (please see appendix for definitions)
• The upstream of cash to Corral is expected to be 43.2 MEUR and 39.5 MSEK respectively
• The segregated accounts in Corral at September 30, 2016 amounted to EUR account 41.5 MEUR and the SEK account 51.9 MSEK
1 241
833
709
1 877
1 216
1 068
2014 2015 LTM Q3 16
$M USD
Drawdown RCF Availability and Cash
QUESTIONS?
• Average Brent crude prices means the average daily spot prices as quoted by for the indicated financial quarter and last trailing twelve month period.
• (Corporate) Adjusted EBITDA is not an IFRS measure and consists of corporate staff and overhead costs, excluding depreciation
• Listing Prospectus means the prospectus of Corral Petroleum Holdings AB (publ) dated May 31, 2016, relating to Corral's €570 million 11.750% / 13.250% Senior PIK Toggle Notes due 2021 and SEK 500 million 12.250% / 13.750% Senior PIK Toggle Notes due 2021, which as filed and viewable on the website of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange.
• Marketing EBITDA is not an IFRS measure and consists of the EBITDA of our Marketing % Sales segment which includes the operating profit and the depreciation of our Marketing & Sales segment, as described in Note 4 to our consolidated financial statements.
• Minimum Liquidity Test refers to a test required under Preem's revolving credit facility before cash may be upstreamed to Corral Petroleum Holdings. The Minimum Liquidity Test is to be performed at a confirmation date 32 days prior to the proposed upstreaming of cash and requires that, pro forma for the proposed upstreaming of cash, Preem has more than $100 million of minimum liquidity in cash, cash equivalents and/or certain drawings available under the RCF for an average of 30 days prior to, and on, the confirmation date. For more details of the relevant permitted payment mechanisms under Preem's revolving credit facility, please see the section of the Listing Prospectus titled "Description of Other Financing Arrangements—A&R Credit Facility—Restrictions on Upstreaming of Cash."
• RCF or revolving credit facility means Preem's Amended and Restated Credit Facility as currently in effect at the date of this presentation.
• Refining margin as used in this presentation is a weighted average that measures the ability of a refinery to cover the variable refining costs of its refining process in addition to the cost of crude oil purchases. Variable refining costs consist of volume-related costs, such as the cost of energy, catalysts, chemicals and additives.
• Supply & Trading EBITDA is not an IFRS measure and consists of the of the EBITDA of our Supply and Refining Segment, and the trade of crude oil and refined products both to our Marketing & Sales segment as well as to third parties and also includes costs for our depot storage network
Definitions
Definitions
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