Safety / Performance Criteria Agreeing on Assumptions

Safety / Performance CriteriaAgreeing on Assumptions

1Lead Instructor: [email protected]

Objective

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This module provides an overview of Performance and Safety Criteria as well as

Project Assumptions

Why?

Why set performance criteria

✈ Measurement

✈ Determine success

✈ Evaluate safety

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Assessment

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Qualitative AssessmentExpert judgement used to assess the design based on

ICAO SARPs (Standards and Recommended Practices) and Procedures Quantitative Assessment

Quantified results produced in the form of numerical data e.g. capacity increased by 20%

Both Qualitative and Quantitative assessment

are crucial to safety and performance assessment

References:

✈ ICAO Doc 9859, AN/474, Safety Management Manual (SMM)

✈ ICAO Doc 9689, Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima

✈ ICAO Circular 319-AN/181, A Unified Framework for Collision Risk Modelling in Support of the Manual on Airspace Planning Methodology for the Determination of Separation Minima (Doc 9689)

✈ ICAO Doc 9613, Performance-Based Navigation Manual

✈ ICAO Doc 8168, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Volume I, Flight Procedures

✈ ICAO Doc 9905, RNP AR Procedure Design Manual

✈ ICAO Doc 4444, Procedures for Air Navigation Services, Air Traffic Management.

Evaluating Safety

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SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM (SMS)

6Ref: ICAO 9859, 2.2

SAFETY THEORY

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Organizational& Structural

Pressure

Various defences are built into the aviation system to protect againstfluctuations in human performance or decisions at all levels of the system.

defensive layers


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Traditional Approach: • Data collection and analysis efforts are limited to

data collected through investigation of accidents and serious incidents.

New Approach: • Adds routine collection and analysis of data using

proactive as well as reactive methodologies to monitor known safety risks and detect emerging safety issues. These enhancements formulated the rationale for moving towards a safety management approach.

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1


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• A SMS is a system to assure the safe operation of aircraft through effective management of safety risk.

• This system is designed to continuously improve safety by identifying hazards, collecting and analysing data and continuously assessing safety risks.

• The SMS seeks to proactively contain or mitigate risks before they result in aviation accidents and incidents.

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.1

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A SMS is not static but is designed for continuous improvement.

a) Develop forms for internal evaluations.b) Define an internal audit process.c) Define an external audit process.d) Define a schedule for evaluation of facilities, equipment, documentation and procedures to be completed through audits and surveys.e) Develop documentation relevant to operational safety assurance.

Ref: ICAO 9859



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The four components of a SMS are:

• a) safety policy and objectives;

• b) safety risk management;

• c) safety assurance; and

• d) safety promotion

Ref: ICAO 9859, 5.3

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Safety Risk Management

Ref: ICAO 9859

Safety Management

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Identify Hazards

Evaluate Hazards

Safety Management

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Mitigate vs Eliminate Hazards

Ref: ICAO 9859

Evaluating Safety

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Risk Assessment

16Ref: ICAO 9859

Risk Management

17Ref: ICAO 9859

ASSUMPTIONS

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Assumptions

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Columbus challenged the Spanish courtiers to stand an egg on its end. They tried but failed. He then hard-boiled one and squashed it down.

“That’s not fair,” they protested, “you broke the rules.” “Don’t be silly,” he replied, “you just assumed more than you needed to.”

What unnecessary assumptions can you eliminate?

Assumptions

"B" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"A" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

200

400

600

800

1000


MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

"C" TERMINAL AIRSPACE MOVEMENTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


MONTH

FL

IGH

TS

PE

R D

AY

Y2002

Y2001

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Assumptions

H

67%15%

15% 3%A

A

A

D

D

D

D

G

35% 35%

30% 25%

25%

25%25%

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Assumptions*Traffic Distribution (Time/Geography)* EUR ARN & Adjacent TMA traffic* IFR/VFR/Military Mix* Aircraft Performance Mix* Helicopters/STOL

* % Use of each RWY* Landings Aids & Use* RWY orientation choice?

* LVP days per year (Greenfield sites)

* Thunderstorm activity* Snow days per year

* Data* Voice

* Radar type* Maintenance down times* Backup

* Conventional Nav* P-RNAV* Other

* Sector definition* Filters* Colour codes

TRAFFIC ASSUMPTIONS

RUNWAY IN USEPrimary/Secondary

ATM/CNSASSUMPTIONS( )Current/Future

COMMUNICATIONSASSUMPTIONS

MET.ASSUMPTIONS

ATC SYSTEMASSUMPTIONS

NAVIGATIONASSUMPTIONS

SURVEILLANCEASSUMPTIONS

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PBN

A few examples ….

✈ Changing a radar

✈Blocked military airspace – that wasn’t

✈ Changing planned runway orientation

✈ Change to the number of runways available

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Questions???

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Safety / Performance Criteria Agreeing on Assumptions

Documents

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