1 Polls predicting 1992 U.S. presidential election outcomes.
Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls and the 2008 Presidential
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Public Opinion Polls Public Opinion Polls and and the 2008 Presidential Election Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D. Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D. Professor and Department Chair Department of Public & International Affairs Department of Public & International Affairs University of North Carolina Wilmington [email protected] www.uncw.edu/people/lowery 1
Transcript of Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Polls and the 2008 Presidential
Public Opinion PollsPublic Opinion Pollsandand
the 2008 Presidential Election
Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.Roger C. Lowery, Ph.D.Professor and Department ChairDepartment of Public & International AffairsDepartment of Public & International AffairsUniversity of North Carolina Wilmington
[email protected]/people/lowery
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Professional Standards
http://www.aapor.org/standardsethicsp p g
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T i l l iTypical pre-electionlli tipolling questions
Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a –think of yourself as a –
R bliA. Republican, B. Democrat,B. Democrat, C. Independent?
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PartyId tifi tiIdentification:
2000-20082000 2008
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P id i l lPresidential approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the y pp ppway George W. Bush is handling his job as president?job as president?
A. ApproveB DisapproveB. Disapprove
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C i l lCongressional approval
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?way Congress is handling its job?
A. ApproveB DisapproveB. Disapprove
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R ti th U SRating the U.S. economy
H d t th U SHow do you rate the U.S. economy –
A. Excellent/Good
B. Only fair/poor
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Iraq War: Right or Wrong?Iraq War: Right or Wrong?Considering everything do you thinkConsidering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to ar ith Iraq or do o thinkgoing to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?
A Did the right thingA. Did the right thingB. It was a mistakeC. Not sure
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Iraq War: What to do now?Iraq War: What to do now?
Regardless of whether we should have invaded Iraq, what should we do now?q,
A Keep U S troops in Iraq until theA. Keep U.S. troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized
B. Bring U.S. troops home as soon as possiblepossible
C. Not sure
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G l ti f tiGeneral satisfaction
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?g g
A S ti fi dA. SatisfiedB. DissatisfiedB. Dissatisfied
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Presidential-election vote:
If the presidential election were today,If the presidential election were today, would you vote for:
A. John McCain
B Barack ObamaB. Barack Obama
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Electoral-vote projectionp j(3 November 2008 at www.electoral-vote.com)
Ob 353 M C i 185 Ti d 0Obama 353 McCain 185 Tied 0
21Dem pickups (vs. 2004): CO IA NV NM OH VA = 101
www.electoral-vote.com13 November 200813 November 2008
Projected electoral votes (based on state polls) omitting the “too-close-to-call" & tied states in which neither candidate
has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.
22Obama 311 McCain 132 Too-close-to call 95 Ties 0
Final Electoral College Map – 2008g(50 states + DC)
23http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
Final Electoral College Map – 2008g(3,077 counties, parishes, & boroughs)
24http://www.princeton.edu/~rvdb/JAVA/election2008/
Links to election poll resultsLinks to election-poll results
2008 Presidential electionhttp://www.electoral-vote.com/ Proslavery Origins of Electoral College
2008 U S Senate races2008 U.S. Senate raceshttp://www.pollster.com/polls/2008senate/
2008 U.S. House raceshttp://www.pollster.com/house.php
2008 U.S. Gubernatorial raceshttp://www.pollster.com/polls/2008governor/
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p p p g
Links to other useful polling & elections websites
http://people.uncw.edu/lowery/pls302/index.htm
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