Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~...

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Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1

Transcript of Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~...

Page 1: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Protect Capital INVESTORPRESENTATION

May 2019

Create Wealth

1

Page 2: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

~ Warren Buffet

Rule No 1: Never lose moneyRule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.

~ Ben Graham

In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term, it is a weighing machine

~ John Bogle

Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth

Page 3: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

We Protect Capital

Prudent risk management - core of our investment philosophy

Investment UniverseDiversification across industries

Diversification across Mcap with

focus on liquidity:

• ≥ 40% in large cap INR275 bn+

• ≤ 10% in one stock

• ≤ 35% in one sector,

• ≤ 50% in the top 10 stocks

• Minimum investments in 30 stocks

Flexible investment style: Growth as well

as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Staggered ApproachPortfolio exposure increased over a

period

Not averse to raise cash

Close eye on earnings

growth drivers

Close eye on valuations

Continuous monitoring of

risk

Exit Strategy

3

Page 4: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

We Create Wealth

3M StockSelection Approach

Identify Size of Sector Opportunity

Market Size

Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment returns

Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in the sector

Market Share

The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading players in the industry

Identify the stock for investment with Reasonable Valuation

Margin of Safety

The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin of Safety

4

Page 5: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Stock Purchase

DatePurchase Price (Rs)

Price(Rs)31-May-2019

Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 514 3467

Motherson Sumi 28-Jan-10 20.5 115

Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 21619

Eicher Motors* 08-Aug-13 3343 15249

Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360

Honeywell Automation 30-Jun-14 5790 25735

Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 6870

HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 2425

3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 22742

Ramco Cements* 28-Mar-14 213 738

Teamlease Services* 30-Nov-16 872 2908

Shankara Building Products* 06-Apr-17 570 1896

HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 2183

Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302

Timken India 22-May-14 233 679

Bayer Cropscience* 05-May-14 1427 4052

Infosys 26-Nov-09 268.5 738

Indo Count Industries* 19-Dec-14 297 785

Siyaram Silk Mills 01-Aug-14 139 340

Capital Trust* 29-Jun-15 253 601

Minda Industries* 06-Mar-17 148 350

Mannapuram Finance* 16-Dec-15 29 69

Whirlpool Of India 02-Mar-16 644 1467

ITD Cementation* 23-Feb-15 65 143

Gabriel India* 01-Aug-14 55 114

Britannia Industries 17-Dec-15 1419 2922

KNR Construction* 03-Dec-14 304 608

Leading To Multibagger Returns

Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like

split/bonusGain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as per

price mentioned

5

575%

463%

443%

356%

353%

344%

314%

262%

251%

246%

233%

233%

226%

196%

191%

184%

175%

164%

145%

138%

136%

135%

128%

120%

108%

106%

100%

Gain (%)

Page 6: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

AAA Portfolio Superior Earnings Growth

Earnings MatrixSensexFY19

AAA IOPFY19

SensexFY20E

AAA IOPFY20E

SensexFY21E

AAA IOPFY21E

EPS G(%) 8.0% 15.9% 15.0% 17.9% 18.0% 19.1%

ROE(%) 13.3% 14.8% 14.4% 16.1% 15.9% 16.3%

P/E(x) 21.9 27.4 18.5 23.2

P/BV(x) 3.1 4.9 2.9 4.2

15.9%17.9%

19.9%

8.0%

15.0%

18.0%

FY19 FY20E FY21E

EPS Growth(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Source: AAA Research

14.8%16.1% 16.3%

13.3%14.4%

15.9%

FY19 FY20E FY21E

ROE(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Source: AAA Research

6

Source: AAA Research

Page 7: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Wealth Creation – A Case Study

Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5%

USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at ~12%

Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian

players in USA and Europe

India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables

market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020

Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with

volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E

At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading

to significant headroom for growth

4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally

Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years

and further expanding to 90 mn meters

Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed

linen segment leading to improved operating margins

No major investment in backward integration – leading to

highest ROE of 44% in the industry

Market share of ~8%

Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product

to improve its market share

Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels

Strong parentage means access to new technology to

offer world class products to Indian consumers

Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years

Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over

next 2-3 years

Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower

considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE

Expect significant growth in profitability backed by

operating efficiency and higher volume growth

Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E –

lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC

which trades at average PE of >20x

M1Market

Size

M2Market Share

M3Margin

of Safety

Indo Count Industries Ltd Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd

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Page 8: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

The Investment Process….

Stock Identification1

Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a

universe of 600 companies

Filter approach – using variety of valuation

parameters

Focus on earnings, free cash flow, ROE, long term

growth and profitability trends

Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing3

Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a

benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term

investment objective

Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk

management

Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen

systems, controls and CG in line with best practices

Analysis & Decision making Process2Initial screening

Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence

Identify sustainable competitive advantage

Exiting & Realizing Value4Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to

decide optimum return potential

Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to

evaluate Margin of Safety

Change in underlying assumptions of investment

thesis

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Page 9: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs

01 Jan 2001

Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs

01 Jan 2011

ACC DLF

Ambuja Cement Hindalco

Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates

Castrol India JSPL

GSK PharmaReliance

Communication

Grasim Sterlite

HPCL Tata Power

MTNL

Novartis

Ranbaxy

Reliance Infra

Reliance Petro

Satyam

Zee

Monitoring of the Portfolio is critical

Exit Strategy As Important As EntryStrategy 9

Name of company Peak Price (Rs)

Low Price (Rs)

MTNL 200 10

Reliance Infra 2500 220

DLF 1200 72

Jaiprakash Associates 312 5.1

Reliance Communication 820 5.7

Tata Power 155 56

Page 10: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

MarketOutlook

Page 11: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Aadhar Card – Financial Inclusion

Source: UIDAI, RBI, Ministry Of Finance

Ministry/ Dept

SchemeReported Savings

(cumulative)(Rs Bn)

Till 31-Mar-17

Till 31-Mar-18

Till 28-Feb-19

Petroleum & Natural

GasPAHAL 297.7 422.8 563.9

Food & Public

DistributionPDS 140.0 297.1 303.0

Rural dev. MGNREGS 117.4 160.7 197.6

Total 570.3 900.1 1204.7

Source: DBT Portal

124 Cr (91%)UID Enrollments

Jan Dhan

33.5 CrAadhar linked Bank accounts opened

5.9 Cr (60%)Aadhar linked MNERGS Cards

20.1 Cr (71%) Aadhar linked LPG Connections

11.4 Cr (45%) Aadhar linkedration cards

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Page 12: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

GST- Size Of Opportunity For Organised Sector

Demonetisation and GST will lead to market share shift from unorganised to organised sector, leading to 3-10x

increase in Size of opportunity in the listed equity space.

Source: Edelweiss, AAA Research

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

Un

org

anis

ed

Sh

are

(%)

Size of Opportunity (Organised Sector)(no of times over 10 years)

Packaging

Electrical Equipment

Plastics

Tiles

Apparels Plywood Dairy

Diagnostics

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

6-9x

12

4-5x

Page 13: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Drivers Of Growth – Investment By Government13

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

0.6

6.1

12.6

-0.6

25.8

10.7

-3.9

20.3

6.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Capital Expenditure Growth(%)

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

Source: IDFC Research Report

19163621

798010098

16271 17055

20000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Highway Project Awarded(kms)

Source: IDFC Research Report, AAA Research

5732

4260 4410

6061

8231

9829 10000

1612

12

17

2327

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Highway project CompletedLength completed (km) Km/day(RHS)

5

12 11

16

32

-4

22 22

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Railways Expenditure growth (%)

Page 14: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

14

Source : BOBCAPS Research

Source : RBI Press Release

Source : MOSPI

Source : CRISIL Report

Source : CEIC

Economic/Industry Indicators

Source : IDFC Securities Research

10.711.111.110.6

12.411.3

13.413.812.813.113.2

12.311.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Bank Non-food credit (%YoY)

51.651.2

53.1

52.3

51.752.2

53.1

54.0

53.2

53.954.3

52.6

51.8

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

PMI Manufacturing Index

1.83.0

7.1

4.8

10.1

5.46.4

1.9

-3.9

-1.6

-1.2

2.9

5.7

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Major port Traffic (%YoY)

21.9

13.013.211.2

14.7

11.8

18.4

8.811.6

10.0

13.1

-0.4

16.2

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Cement production (%YoY)

-3.1

9.8

6.4

9.7

2.3

10.3

6.9

16.9

-3.1

4.9

-3.2

-0.1-0.1

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Capital Goods production (%YoY)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Vehicle sales YoY G%

PV (%YoY) 2W (%YoY) CV (%YoY)

Page 15: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08

Source: RBI, AAA Research

GDP Growth(%)

4.2

5.4

3.8

8.07.1

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.6 8.9

6.7

4.5 4.7

7.4 7.68.2

7.26.8

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average GDP: 7.1%

Average GDP: 7.1%

Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research

IIP Growth(%)

5

2.7

5.77

11.7

8.6

12.9

15.5

2.55.3

8.2

2.9

1.1

-0.1

2.8 2.54.6 4.3

3.6

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average IIP: 8.6%

Average IIP: 3.4%

15

Page 16: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Focus On Stock Earnings Growth -Earnings Growth To Bounce Back

After reporting single digit earnings growth (FY09-18),

Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit

growth (FY19-21E)

38.7%Sensex CAGR

FY03-08

-1.9%Sensex CAGR

FY97-03

8.6%Sensex CAGR

FY08-19

Sensex CAGR ??

FY19-21E

Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research

0.5%EPS CAGR

25%EPS CAGR

6.0%EPS CAGR

16.5%EPS CAGR

16

266 291 278 280 216 236 272361

446540

720833 820 834

10241124 1185

1340 1354 1340 13531462

1579

1815

2142

FY9

7

FY9

8

FY9

9

FY0

0

FY0

1

FY0

2

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0E

FY2

1E

Page 17: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Earnings growth critical for returns

BSE500 universe ex PSU Banking and Loss making companies

3.75 years 5.75 years 10.75 years

Net ProfitCAGR (%)

(Dec-18/Mar-15) (Dec-18/Mar-13) (Dec-18/Mar-08)

No of Companies

Market Cap CAGR (%)

No of Companies

Market Cap CAGR (%)

No of Companies

Market Cap CAGR (%)

80% + 20 30.2% 5 29.0% 1 68.6%

50-80% 25 26.1% 17 51.2% 10 35.8%

30-50% 44 25.2% 46 41.8% 25 34.6%

20-30% 45 18.8% 46 34.7% 51 27.9%

15-20% 42 19.2% 47 30.4% 56 21.5%

10-15% 41 11.6% 48 22.5% 54 16.7%

5-10% 41 7.1% 48 15.3% 52 13.3%

0-5% 39 0.3% 29 14.9% 34 6.7%

Total 361 346 324

NIFTY 6.8% 11.9% 8.0%

SENSEX 7.0% 12.0% 8.1%

No of companies 15%+ CAGR Net

Profit176 161 143

Source: AAA Research

17

Page 18: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Market Valuations

Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research

Sensex @39714 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

EPS (Rs) 834 1024 1123 1185 1340 1355 1340 1353 1462 1579 1815 2142

EPS G(%) 2% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 1% 8% 8% 15% 18%

BV (Rs) 5101 5944 6842 7790 8862 9540 10143 10684 11269 11900 12626 13483

P/E(x) 25.2 21.9 18.5

P/BV(x) 3.3 3.1 2.9

ROE(%) 16.3% 17.2% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 13.0% 13.3% 14.4% 15.9%

Source: AAA Research

18

Source: AAA Research

Mean 18.1x

Mean 2.6x

1.3

2.3

3.3

4.3

5.3

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

E

P/BV Fwd (x)

P/BV Fwd(x)

7

12

17

22

27

May

-09

May

-10

May

-11

May

-12

May

-13

May

-14

May

-15

May

-16

May

-17

May

-18

May

-19

E

PER Fwd (x)

PER Fwd(x)

Page 19: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

The people running the show at

AlfAccurate Advisors

Page 20: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

The AlfAccurate Advisors Team20

Rajesh Kothari

Founder and Managing Director

Head Operations and Compliance

Bhushan KoliGovind Agrawal

Director

Page 21: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Mr. Rajesh Kothari

Founder & Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)

Award Winning Investment Team

Rich experience of more than 24 years in Indian capital market

Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy

Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) –

USA based India dedicated fund for two and half years

• During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark

indices significantly

Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock)

Fund Managers Ltd for more than four years

• During his tenure equity assets under management grew

from USD100m to USD1.5bn

• The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity

Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming benchmark

indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively

• The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking”

consistently during his tenure

Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014

Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity

Fund on a risk-adjusted return basis in July 2006

Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced

Fund on a risk-adjusted return basis in July 2006

CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity

Fund

Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years

DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT

category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)

He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on

Indian Infrastructure

(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)

Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit

Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on

Governance

Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.

Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative

Achievements

21

Page 22: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Glimpses Of Superior Performance ToBenchmark Index

-6.0

133.0

38.9

84.7

5.8 5.618.6 9.6 11.2

29.0

71.7

2.528.2 25.0

-4.3-11

85

17

70.5

-7.9

3.9 7.5

-9.1

4.8 17.133.2

-7.8

24.011.8 8.4

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08Voyager

FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index

Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index

DSP MerillLynch MF AlfAccurate Advisors

*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010)

Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

22

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY03 FY05 Jun06-Dec08 FY11 FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19

Funds managed by Rajesh BSE 500 Index

24.4% CAGR

12.4% CAGR

Rs 1 cr invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 32.82 crs

Page 23: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Mr. Govind Agrawal

Director(FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)

Rich experience of 30 years in finance out of which last 24 years in Indian capital market

Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn)

for over four years.

• Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark

indices by 35% since its inception.

• Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for

India and Emerging Market as Investment Theme

• Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk

Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India Pvt Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4

years

• Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs

• Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings

Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years

• Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and

processes

• Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising

the clients on sectoral allocation and stock selection

Achievements

Award Winning Investment Team

Represented Reliance AMC on international

platforms and panel discussion on Emerging

Markets and Indian Equity Market

Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking

teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,

Europe and in India

At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales

Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”

Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for

consistently contributing to Institutional Equity

Sales

23

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The

AlfAccurate Advisorsphilosophy

Page 25: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

AlfAccurate Advisors

Credentials

We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined

experience of 70+ years

Investment Principle

Protect Capital, Create Wealth

Vision

To be the world’s most admired investment advisor

25

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Our Guiding Principles26

Page 27: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Investment Philosophy...

Fundamental Research core ofour investment management

Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market

Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research

Benchmark aware butnot driven

Flexible investment style

Focus on margin of safety

Long Term Horizon

27

Page 28: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Combined With Investment Discipline...

Parameter Rules Current Position

Cap Exposure At least 40% in Large cap (More than INR275 bn) 53.4% invested in Large cap

Sector Weightage Not more than 35% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 26.7%

Stock WeightageNot more than 10% in a given stock and not more than

50% in the top 10 StocksMaximum Exposure in a given stock is 4.3%.

Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 37.0%

Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 47 stocks

Stock Universe 600 Corporates 600 Corporates

Data as on: 31 May 2019

47Number of Stocks

18Number of Sectors

37.0%Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio

28

Note: Market Cap classification as per SEBI new norms

Sector Allocation

Auto Auto Ancillary Banking & FinanceCash and Cash Equivalent Cement ChemicalsConstruction Consumer EngineeringLogistics Oil & Gas OthersPharma Real Estate RetailSoftware Telecom Textile

53%25%

19%

3%

Portfolio Allocation

Large Mid Small Cash

Page 29: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)

Performance (%)FY20YTD#

FY19 FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11Since

Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan (0.3) (4.2) 25.0 28.2 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 9.6 18.6 430.0

BSE 500 Index 1.4 8.3 11.8 24.0 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 133.1

BSE Midcap Index -2.5 (3.0) 13.2 32.7 0.3 49.5 15.3 (3.2) (7.7) 1.0 132.8

BSE Smallcap Index -0.3 (12.2) 17.7 36.9 (3.2) 54.0 21.8 (12.4) (18.9) (3.8) 95.9

CNX Nifty 2.6 14.9 10.2 18.5 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 133.6

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

29Leading To Superior Performance

Staggered investment approach has helped to protect the downside

Cash levels of clients coming at different point of time & their respective performance

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 month old 3 month old 6 month old 9 month old

CASH AAA IOP PMS BSE500 BSE MIDCAP(Data as on 31 Oct 2018)

*(23 November 2009 – 31 May 2019)(Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees) #(01 Apr 2019 – 31 May 2019)

Page 30: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Compounded Annual Returns (%) 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARSSince

Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan PMS -6.8% 5.3% 13.0% 18.2% 19.2%

BSE 500 Index 5.1% 8.4% 13.0% 11.0% 9.3%

BSE Midcap Index -5.7% 1.6% 9.9% 12.3% 9.3%

BSE Smallcap Index -13.8% -0.7% 10.1% 10.5% 7.3%

CNX Nifty 11.1% 11.3% 13.5% 10.5% 9.3%*(23 Nov 2009 – 31 May 2019)(Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees)

Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds since inception(%)

431.4

257.2190.9

153.6

81.5129.9 138.7 125.1 127.8

AAA IndiaOpp.Plan*

Quartile1

Quartile2

Quartile3

Quartile4

BSE 500Index

BSEMidcap

BSESensex

CNX Nifty

Average Monthly Rolling Returns since inception(%)

21.823.8

25.9

10.3 10.9 11.9

1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

AAA India Opp. Plan BSE 500 Index

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Source: Bloomberg

30Leading To Superior Performance

Page 31: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

AAA IOP PMS Outperformed BSE 500 Index : 28 out of 37 trailing quarters

31Leading To Superior Performance

Page 32: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Risk Analysis :AAA IOP PMS Performance Compared To Benchmark

Parameters How to read ratioAAA IOP

PMSBSE500 Index

AAA IOP PMS performance

BetaLess than 1 beta is good sign as it

denotes lower volatility of the portfolio0.86 1.0

Beta of less than 1 shows AAA PMS has lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index

Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit of deviation. Higher the Sharpe ratio, better it is.

0.9 0.2Top Performing Midcap MFs have Sharpe

Ratio 0.75+. AAA IOP PMS Sharpe ratio is one of the best in the industry.

Standard DeviationStandard deviation denotes amount of

variation13.5 14.1

AAA IOP SD is less than Benchmark as well as peer group which shows portfolio has lower

risk

Upside capture It denotes overall performance of PMS

during up markets. 172.11 100.0

Upside capture ratio of more than 100 indicates that fund has outperformed Benchmark during positive markets.

Downside captureIt denotes overall performance of PMS

during down markets. 88.2 100.0

Ratio of less than 100 indicates, fund has outperformed Benchmark during negative

markets.

Capture Ratio

Capture ratio >1 indicates, Investment Manager has gained more during up

(positive) markets and lost less during down (negative) markets.

1.95 1AAA PMS capture ratio is healthy as it

protected capital during negative markets and building wealth consistently.

Data is analysed since inception of AAA IOP PMS data i.e. 23 Nov 2009 – 31 May 2019

32

Page 33: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

AAA IOP PMS Rolling Return Analysis

Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)AAA IOP

1 YearBSE500

Index 1 YearAAA IOP3 Years

BSE500Index 3 Years

AAA IOP 5 Years

BSE500 Index 5 years

No of obervations 104.0 104.0 80.0 80.0 56.0 56.0

No of Positive Observations 89.0 78.0 80.0 74.0 56.0 56.0

No of Negative Observations 15.0 26.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0

Loss Probability (%) 14.4% 25.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Average Returns (%) 21.8% 10.3% 23.8% 10.9% 25.9% 11.9%

Median Returns (%) 18.4% 7.6% 23.6% 11.9% 26.2% 12.8%

Maximum Returns (%) 88.8% 51.3% 41.0% 22.9% 30.7% 18.9%

Minimum Returns (%) -15.1% -27.4% 6.2% -4.2% 18.2% 5.6%

Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 31 May 2019) (Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees)

AAA has delivered average returns of 21.8%, 23.8% and 25.9% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on

monthly rolling return basis

Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not besustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

33

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2018 - Market Divergence34

Source: Bloomberg

Source: BloombergSource: Ace Equity

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

CY0

4

CY0

5

CY0

6

CY0

7

CY0

8

CY0

9

CY1

0

CY1

1

CY1

2

CY1

3

CY1

4

CY1

5

CY1

6

CY1

7

CY1

8

Nifty NSE Mid100 Index NSE Small Index

(%)

Nifty: +8.5% Midcap: -2.9% Smallcap: -6.8%

Nifty: +3.2%Midcap: -15.4%Smallcap: -29.1%

Historic divergence in indices in last 14 years

222.7%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

CY0

4

CY0

5

CY0

6

CY0

7

CY0

8

CY0

9

CY1

0

CY1

1

CY1

2

CY1

3

CY1

4

CY1

5

CY1

6

CY1

7

CY1

8

Concentrated performance - Top 10 stocks by weight contributed a whopping ~223% gain in Nifty

1764

1397857

3925

4214

10

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

< -60%

-60% to -40%

-40% to -20%

-20% to -10%

-10% to 0%

0% to 10%

10% to 20%

20% to 40%

40% to 60%

> 60%

No. of stocks

Ret

urn

73% of BSE500 stocks registered negative returns & 45% of BSE500 stocks registered decline of more than 20%

Page 35: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Opportunity: Marketcap Vs Netprofit35

26%

29%

18%

8% 11%

3% 3% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

10

-50

0

50

0-2

k

2-5

k

5-1

0k

10

-30

k

30

-50

k

50

-10

0k

10

0k+

Market cap (Rs. crs.)

Market cap classification of listed companies

*No of listed companies % of Total listed companies

Large cos bymcap = only 9%

39%

18%15% 14%

15%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

10-50 50-100 100-200 200-500 500+

Net profit size (Rs. crs.)

NP size classification of listed companies

*No of listed companies

Large cos by NP = 43.5%

*Only companies with net profit Rs 10 crs+ (FY18) is considered

Page 36: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Strong Risk Management and Ownership in Best Businesses

~53% in large cap and ~25% in Mid & ~19% in small cap

Top 10 stocks ~37% of portfolio – less concentration risk

Invested in best of the businesses with large profit size and low leverage with superior earnings growth

In India, only 550 companies out of 5000 listed companies have reported Rs 100 crs+ net profit

in FY18. ~82% of AAA portfolio companies reported net profit Rs 100 crs and above (50% of portfolio

companies net profit Rs 500 crs+ and 32% of portfolio companies – net profit Rs 100-500

crs)(ex cash). Hence all these companies are large companies in terms of profit size. ~41% of portfolio companies are debt free and ~46% of portfolio companies D/E less than 1:1

(ex banking and fin). This implies strong balance sheet of the companies.

In long term market is mirror of earnings growth hence earnings growth is critical. AAAPMS

companies delivered 16% earnings growth in FY19 and we expect it to deliver 18%+ CAGR during

FY19-21

Portfolio Update AlfAccurate Advisors PMS36

Page 37: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.

12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR

30Yrs

150 Cr

9 Cr

20Yrs5Yrs 10Yrs

16 Cr

48Cr

331 Cr

20 Cr

5Yrs

82 Cr

20Yrs 30Yrs10Yrs

10 Cr

10Yrs 30Yrs

717 Cr

20Yrs

137 Cr

26 Cr

5Yrs

11 Cr

30Yrs20Yrs

1,187 Cr

5Yrs

31 Cr

192 Cr

10Yrs

12 Cr

18% CAGR

The Power Of Compounding – AScenario Analysis

Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores

The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term

37

Page 38: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Why we should be your choice of

Investment Advisory

Page 39: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Why We Should Be Your Choice OfInvestment Advisory

Access to Founders – founders are fund managers

Process driven organization

Award winning investment team and track record

No conflict of interest

Staggered investment approach

Sound Research capabilities

Adequate infrastructure to support scalability

Integrity and ethics as the core of the business

Client centric business model

Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets

Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy

39

Page 40: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Product Features

Name of plan AAA India Opportunity Equity PMS Plan

Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation

Investment ThemeTo invest in listed companies with combination of high

growth stocks as well as value stocks

Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari

Director Govind Agrawal

Custodians Deutsche Bank, India

Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India

Depository Participant ISSL, India

Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer

40

Page 41: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Awards and Recognitions

Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving

Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014

Lipper Fund Award – India 2007

41

Page 42: Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 2019 Create …PRESENTATION May 2019 Create Wealth 1 ~ Warren Buffet Rule No 1: Never lose money Rule No 2: Never forget rule No 1. ~ Ben

Thank You

Rajesh KothariT : +91 22 4236 0301

M : +91 98200 [email protected]

Govind AgrawalT : +91 22 4236 0311M : +91 93208 [email protected]

AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd503, B Wing, Naman Midtown,

Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, India

T : +91 22 42360300; F : +91 22 42360333 [email protected]

Contact us

Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solelyfor your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is basedupon publicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are ourcurrent opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may besubject to change without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed withoutAlfAccurate Advisors Pvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy andcompleteness cannot be guaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.