Protean Prediction Collective Wisdom Engine

P R O T E A N S T R A T E G I E S I N C . 80 CUMBERLAND STREET, SUITE 1503, TORONTO M5R 3V1 (416) 967.3337 • FAX (416) 967-2728 • WWW.BC3STRATEGIES.COM

A marketing tool for today’s

changed world

Contents

Introduction to ProteanPrediction

Scientific Validation

Case Studies

Briefly

Prediction Markets are a means of aggregating the inherent wisdom of the crowd in order to predict an outcome

Prediction Market theory applied to consumer research is a powerful, technique that enables marketers to evaluate ideas quickly, effectively and reliably

ProteanPrediction Collective Wisdom Engine is a simplified, streamlined research methodology based on prediction market theory

A marketing tool for today’s changed world

Enables marketers to harness consumer opinions once or at multiple points during the project development

Talks to consumers at the speed they are used to

Allows marketers to benefit from consumers’ inherent marketing savvy

Gives consumers a respite from research complexity by offering them simple ways to make their opinions known and express them in their own language

The underlying premise

2 Simple yet profound tenets

Ask what they think other people would do, not what they personally would do

Reward them for getting it right

1 Complex and profound tenet

Apply prediction market algorithm to weight the responses

Simply what you need to know

Why? Why not?

Will it work?

Three core questions If we asked 100 people like yourself whether this

campaign would make them want to buy

BRAND X, how many would say “YES!”

1.

Now, how much of your $ would you bet

that your answer above is right? You only

have $100 to bet between the two

options?

2.

You estimated that more people

would be convinced to buy

[Product} by watching ‘AD D’ ….

Why did you think this?

3.

Plus: tailored to the needs of every project

Questions

Demographic and behavioral screening questions

Pre-exposure brand and competitive awareness and preference

Post exposure preference

Full range of diagnostic testing

Sample

Customer lists, hand raisers, brand enthusiasts

On-line panel

Any other source

Prediction market difference

Traditional Quant Study ProteanPrediction

Remove Bias Subjective personal opinions

Focused on what people think other people would say, not

their narrow personal biases

People are better at predicting the behaviour of others than their own behaviour

Engage respondents Respondents rewarded for completing the survey, not honesty or accuracy

Respondents are rewarded for

thinking about the question and being right!

Based on respondents’ holistic thinking

Deconstructs evaluation into rational bites, eliminating “irrational” thinking

Encourage irrational component of forming judgments and making decisions

Visual analysis of open ended question

Comments about Statement A

Total sample

Scientifically Validated

Widely used

Iowa Electronic Markets: political predictions more accurate than the most accurate polls at least 75% of the time

Hollywood Markets: Predict box office receipts

Used by: Google, Hewlett Packard, Wrigley (Global); Kraft; GE; Microsoft; Intercontinental Hotels Group; GM’ etc.

Accurate predictions

In a study of prediction markets versus traditional research, professors at Northwestern University found that prediction markets were closer to the outcome of US Presidential elections 74% of the time compared to traditional polling (using 964 polls covering the period 1988 to 2004)

− http://www.northwestern.edu/ipr/news/predictionmarkets.pdf

GM Car sales, November 2008

Forecast Actual Variance %

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

Chevy Cars

Light trucks

GM forecast (beginning of month)

150,000 250,000 95,000 152,000 36.7 39.2

Edmonds estimate of sales (end of month)

125,000 215,000 95,000 152,000

24.0 29.3

prediction markets (7 days into the month)

97,000 160,000 95,000 152,000 2.1 5.0

prediction markets (end of month)

107,000 180,000 95,000 152,000 11.2 15.6

http://www.crowdclarity.com/learnmore.htm

http://www.northwestern.edu/ipr/news/predictionmarkets.pdf



The science

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keVL0PkCpaQ&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Econsensuspoint%2Ecom%2Fprediction%2Dmarkets%2Dblog%2F&feature=player_embedded

This link connects you to a video of the CEO of Best Buy talking about their use of Prediction Markets. Given their recent business collapse, I am not sure they are necessarily the best example

http://www.hsx.com/

This is the link to the Hollywood Stock Exchange, which is probably the most famous prediction market site – it has become an extremely important tool for movie producers to judge the potential of their future movies before they make them.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/0301/04.html

This is the most fun of all of them – PBS video that makes it all clear.

Additional Links

These two academic papers give an interesting overview into some of the academic thinking behind the theory of prediction markets.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=keVL0PkCpaQ&eurl=http://www.consensuspoint.com/prediction-markets-blog/&feature=player_embedded



http://www.hsx.com/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sciencenow/0301/04.html

http://proteanstrategies.com/Prediction_Markets_for_Corporate_Governance.pdf

http://proteanstrategies.com/The_Prediction_Market_Truth.pdf

Case Studies

Case Studies

A few examples of how ProteanPrediction has helped provide wise, reliable learning:

Ontario Lottery and Gaming

450 responses

5 different messaging directions

OLG needed to adopt a messaging strategy to combat negative publicity about business and governance practices

o If we asked one hundred people to choose the one statement that would make them more confident in OLG to operate its lottery system fairly, how many would choose each statement

Ontario Tourism Marketing Partnership

300 responses

2 segments, 3 images

Combined with qualitative focus groups (quali-quant)

OTMP wanted to determine which image would be most engaging image to use on their 2011 Travel brochure cover:

o If we asked 100 people to choose the brochure cover that would make them most interested in reading the brochure to learn unexpected, exciting things about traveling in Ontario how many would choose each brochure

Case Studies (continued)

Canadian Paralympic Association

250 responses

6 Strategic Directions

Combined with one-on-one telephone interviews

CPC needed to determine which of 6 strategic approaches to motivating kids with disabilities, their parents and the para-sport community, to participate in group sport, would be most effective

o If we ask 100 people just like you, how many would say that this “idea” would convince them that when kids with disabilities get involved in sport, the positive impact upon them and their families can be enormous?

Campbell's Soup Company

350 responses

4 finished commercials; 3 core questions

Campbell's needed to determine whether they should use the US advertising or a Canadian campaign in the Canadian marketplace

“If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would make them want to try Campbell’s Lite Soup, how many would say yes? [Brand]

“If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would convince them that Campbell’s Soups are healthy, how many would say yes? [Main message]

o If we asked 100 people just like you whether this commercial would convince them that Campbell’s Soup is low in calories, how many would say yes?[Benefit]

Ontario Place

900 Respondents

3 Prediction Markets

2 Thematic events, impact on visitation of new attractions, 2 pricing alternatives for park admission

Ontario Place used ProteanPrediction to help determine the optimum strategy for the 30th anniversary season of the amusement park in 2011

o If we asked 100 people just like you how many would say

1. that they would only visit Ontario Place if the Observations Wheel is one of the three new rides and attractions

2. that they would visit the park more often if the Observations Wheel is one of the three new rides and attractions

3. that the Observations Wheel would have no impact on whether they visit or do not visit Ontario Place

o If we asked 100 people just like you, how many would say that

1. that more people would visit Ontario Place because of the “Free Grounds Admission”

2. That the “Free Grounds Admission” would make no difference to how many people will visit Ontario Place

o If we asked 100 people just like you how many would say

1. they would be motivated to visit Ontario Place this year or visit it more often because of the these 40th Anniversary celebratory events

2. they would be motivated to visit Ontario Place this year or visit it more often because of the addition of these new rides and attractions

Recent Clients

Canadian Beverage Association (Messaging strategy)

Shaw Cable (TV copy testing)

Yellow Pages (Web design)

Canadian Liver Foundation (Promotion test)

Ministry of Health Promotion (Print advertising – diabetes information)

Molson’s (TV Post test)

80 CUMBERLAND STREET • 1503 • TORONTO • M5R 3V1

(416) 967.3337 • FAX (647) 967-2728 • WWW.PROTEANSTRATEGIES.COM

For more information

call Laurence Bernstein 416 967-3337 x 101

[email protected]

www.proteanstrategies.com

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.proteanstrategies.com/

Protean Prediction Collective Wisdom Engine

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