Prospects for international tourism

Project LINKUN DESA Expert Group Meeting

on the World Economy,NYC, USA

22-24 October 2012

Name Job title

xxx@unwto.org

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

- a specialized agency of the United Nations (UN) and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how.

- plays a central and decisive role in promoting the development of responsible, sustainable and universally accessible tourism, paying particular attention to the interests of developing countries.

- encourages the implementation of the Global Code of Ethics for Tourism, with a view to ensuring that member countries, tourist destinations and businesses maximize the positive economic, social and cultural effects of tourism and fully reap its benefits, while minimizing its negative social and environmental impacts.

- intergovernmental organization with membership includes 161 countries and territories and more than 400 Affiliate Members representing the private sector, educational institutions, tourism associations and local tourism authorities.

- committed to the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, geared toward reducing poverty and fostering sustainable development.

Tourism is demand side defined “Tourism is a social, cultural and economic phenomenon which entails the movement of people to countries or places outside their usual environment for personal or business/professional purposes. These people are called visitors (which may be either tourists or excursionists; residents or non- residents) and tourism has to do with their activities, some of which imply tourism expenditure.”

Tourism: concepts, forms and indicators

International tourist arrivals by purpose, 2011

Not specified7%

Business and

professional15%

VFR, Other27%

Leisure, recreation

and holidays51%

International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008 (UNWTO and United Nations)

Tourism supply: complex productmany parties involved to make tourism work

PlanningDevelopmentOperations

Travel organisation and booking

Tour Operators & Wholesaler

Travel AgentInternet

Airline companies

DIRECT

INDIRECT

Ministry of tourism and Culture

Communication, press & media

Call centres

Transportation

Car rental

Bus Co / Informal buses

Taxi companies

River Ferry

Customs Office

Port Authority

Ministry of Transportation

Food & Beverage

Bars & Restaurants

Night clubs

Fast food

Food suppliers

Food factories and rural areas

Handicrafts

Handicrafts shops

Handicrafts suppliers

Manufactures

Leisure, excursions and

tours

Tourist guides organizations

Independent tourist guides

Transports guides and escorts

Tourism packages

Tourism assets in destination

Cultural assets: archaeology, communities,

ethnics, museums, tourism attractions, intangible cultural

assets (music, dance, legends,

etc.), festivals, etc.

Management

Maintenance

Support services

Natural assets: lakes, rivers, reefs

and mountains, forests, species of flora & fauna, etc.

Shows Information centres

Grocery shops/ retail outlet

Laundry

Wholesalers and single suppliers

Technology shops/ imports

Industrial factories

Oil station

Infrastructure Support

Construction materials Energy WaterWaste Communications

Informal transportation

Brochures

Security and bank services

Promotional activities

Merchandising of Eastern Anatolia

In transit destinations

(Istanbul, etc.)In origin

Immigration Agency

Itinerant food shops

Kiosks

Food souvenirs Wellness and SPAS

Storage & Distribution

Craft-men

Handicrafts workshops

Restoration

Site signals

Books, CD’s and DVD

Artists (painting, musicians, etc.)

Trade companies

Education Public security and health

From origin to destination In destination

Internet cafés

Hotels

Apartments

Guesthouse

Youth hostels

Shops (in accommodation)

Maintenance

Agricultural and Aquaculture Suppliers: textile, wood, food

Furniture and equipments

Marketing & Sales

Accommodation

Constructors & Real Estate

Support Institutions: Ministry of Tourism and Culture; Chamber of Commerce; Ministry of Interior; Banks, etc

Value Chain Phases

PlanningDevelopmentOperations

Travel organisation and booking

Tour Operators & Wholesaler

Travel AgentInternet

Airline companies

DIRECT

INDIRECT

Ministry of tourism and Culture

Communication, press & media

Call centres

Transportation

Car rental

Bus Co / Informal buses

Taxi companies

River Ferry

Customs Office

Port Authority

Ministry of Transportation

Food & Beverage

Bars & Restaurants

Night clubs

Fast food

Food suppliers

Food factories and rural areas

Handicrafts

Handicrafts shops

Handicrafts suppliers

Manufactures

Leisure, excursions and

tours

Tourist guides organizations

Independent tourist guides

Transports guides and escorts

Tourism packages

Tourism assets in destination

Cultural assets: archaeology, communities,

ethnics, museums, tourism attractions, intangible cultural

assets (music, dance, legends,

etc.), festivals, etc.

Management

Maintenance

Support services

Natural assets: lakes, rivers, reefs

and mountains, forests, species of flora & fauna, etc.

Shows Information centres

Grocery shops/ retail outlet

Laundry

Wholesalers and single suppliers

Technology shops/ imports

Industrial factories

Oil station

Infrastructure Support

Construction materials Energy WaterWaste Communications

Informal transportation

Brochures

Security and bank services

Promotional activities

Merchandising of Eastern Anatolia

In transit destinations

(Istanbul, etc.)In origin

Immigration Agency

Itinerant food shops

Kiosks

Food souvenirs Wellness and SPAS

Storage & Distribution

Craft-men

Handicrafts workshops

Restoration

Site signals

Books, CD’s and DVD

Artists (painting, musicians, etc.)

Trade companies

Education Public security and health

From origin to destination In destination

Internet cafés

Hotels

Apartments

Guesthouse

Youth hostels

Shops (in accommodation)

Maintenance

Agricultural and Aquaculture Suppliers: textile, wood, food

Furniture and equipments

Marketing & Sales

Accommodation

Constructors & Real Estate

Support Institutions: Ministry of Tourism and Culture; Chamber of Commerce; Ministry of Interior; Banks, etc

Value Chain Phases

TourismValue Chain

Why Tourism?

=> Tourism is economic activity with substantial impact• Employment• Diversification of economy / Tax revenues• Earning foreign currency / balancing Balance of Payments

inbound tourism = export / outbound = import• Development of weak regions / Regeneration of regions in

decay• Redistribution of wealth between countries and within countries• Multiplier effect > impact in several other sectors• Preservation of culture

Source: Korea Tourism Organization (KTO), www.etourkorea.com

Results 2011

International Tourist Arrivals990 million

+5.0%

International Tourism Receipts(BOP Travel)

US$ 1,030 billion (euro 740 bn)+3.9% (real terms)

+International passenger transport

(BOP Transport, passenger)US$ 203 billion (euro 144 bn)

www.unwto.org/facts

Inbound tourism: World

International tourist arrivals, 1995‐2011* (million)

528560 586 602 625

674 673 693 684

755799

845900 919

883941

403437 436 443 457 476 466 485

533

634679

744

858

941

853

928

85 92 96 95 97 98 93 95 101 121 133 144 169 186155 174

990 mn

US$ 1,030 bn

US$ 203 bn

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011*

International tourist arrivals (million)International tourism receipts (BOP Travel, US$ billion)Int. passenger transport (BOP Transp, pass, US$ billion)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourism Arrivals and Receipts, World

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

'90/89

'91/90

'92/91

'93/92

'94/93

'95/94

'96/95

'97/96

'98/97

'99/98

'00/99

'01/00

'02/01

'03/02

'04/03

'05/04

'06/05

'07/06

'08/07

'09/08

'10/09

'11*/1

0%

cha

nge

over

pre

viou

s ye

ar

International tourist arrivalsInternational tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

growth in receipts follows growth in arrivals closelyAsian financial and economic crisis: receipts grew slower

11S, SARS, economic downturn: receipts more affected

‘Great recession’: receipts more affected and slower to recover

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Export worldwide

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

US$

billio

n

International Tourism (BOP Travel & Passenger transport)FuelsChemicalsFoodAutomotive products

International tourism vs. other export categories

International tourism:30% of export of services

5.5% of exports of goods and services

International Tourism (travel and passenger transport), 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

WorldNorth

ern Euro

peWest

ern Euro

pe

Central/East

ern Eu.

Souther

n/Medi

ter. Eu.

North-East A

siaSout

h-East

AsiaOceani

aSout

h Asia

North Americ

aCarib

bean

Central Americ

aSout

h America

North Afric

a

Subsahar

an Afric

aMidd

le East

% of total trade% of trade in services

Share in trade and services by subregion

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM 2011*International tourist arrivals and receipts and market share (%)

International Tourist Arrivals (ITA)990 million

International Tourism Receipts (ITR)US$ 1,033 billion

AmericasITA: 157 million (16%)ITR: 

US$ 

199 

billion 

(19%)

AfricaITA: 50 million (5%)ITR:US$ 33 billion (3%)

EuropeITA: 509 million (51%)ITR: US$ 464 billion (45%)

Middle EastITA: 56 million (6%)ITR: US$ 47 bn (5%)

Asia and the PacificITA: 218 million (22%)ITR: 

US$ 

291 

billion 

(28%)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*

V‐shape decline of 

15 consecutive 

months of 

negative growth 

+2.1% ‐3.8% +6.6% +5.0% +4.2%

Emerging destinations suffered less inthe crisis and recovered quicker

International Tourist Arrivals (% change)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

-0.3

-4.5

5.1 5.23.8

9.3

5.1

-3.1

8.2

4.9 4.74.4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

07/06 08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12*/11 YTD

Advanced economiesEmerging economies

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

64

10

8

4

11

1

12

34 4

9

-9

6

-7

3

5

7

1

89

5

9

45

76

11

6

1

5.0 4.9

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

WorldNorth

ern Europ

eWeste

rn Euro

pe

Central/East

ern Europe

Southern/Medite

r. Eu.

North-East

AsiaSouth-E

ast Asia

Oceania

South AsiaNorth

America

Caribbean

Central America

South America

North Afric

aSubsah

aran Afric

aMiddle

East

11/10 12*/11 January - June

2011 and 2012 year to date by subregion

International Tourism Expenditure (% change of same period year before, local currencies current prices)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Germany

United S

tatesChin

a

United K

ingdom

France

Canada

Russian

Federati

on Italy

Japan

Australi

aBelg

ium Brazil

Singapo

reNeth

erlands

Korea, R

epublic

of

Hong Kong

(Chin

a)Spai

nNorw

aySwede

nSwitze

rland

India

Malaysi

a

2011 2012*

Major outbound marketsBRICs are hot

B

RI

C

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts: World

Better

Equal

Worse

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

T1 T2'03

T3 T1 T2'04

T3 T1 T2'05

T3 T1 T2'06

T3 T1 T2'07

T3 T1 T2'08

T3 T1 T2'09

T3 T1 T2'10

T3 T1 T2'11

T3 T1 T2'12

T3

Prospects (before)

Evaluation (after)

Confidence weakening but still positive

2011 Forecast 2012

World +5.0% 3% to 4%

Europe +6.7% 2% to 4%

Asia and the Pacific +6.4% 4% to 6%

Americas +4.2% 2% to 4%

Africa +0.3% 4% to 6%

Middle East ‐7.0% 0% to 5%

INTERNATIONAL TOURISM: FORECAST 2012

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

Tourism towards 2030

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

International arrivals to reach 1.4 billion in 2020 and 1.8 billion by 2030

1 bn

1.8 bn

1.4 bn

Growth in international tourism will continue, but at a more moderate pace

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, % change over previous year

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

3

0

0

1

9

4

3

9

7

6

7

0

9

3

44

6

5

3

4

8

0

3

-2

10

6 6

7

2

-4

7

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1980/'79 1985/'84 1990/'89 1995/'94 2000/'99 2005/'04 2010/'09 2015/'14 2020/'19 2025/'24 2030/'29

2010 – 2030 : 3.3%

3.8 % 2.9%2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030

1980 – 1995: 4.4% 1995 – 2010: 3.9%

Average annual growth

Average annual growth Average annual growth

International tourist arrivals to increase by 43 million a year on average

International tourism, World International Tourist Arrivals, absolute change over previous year, million

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

8

0

0

4

25

1310

3027

22

28

-2

39

15

21 20

33

26

16

22

49

-1

20

-11

70

45 45

56

20

-35

58

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2010 – 2030 : +43 mn

2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030+42 mn + 45 mn

1980 – 1995: +17 mn  1995 – 2010: +28 mn

Average growth

Average growth Average growth

Emerging economy destinations to surpass advanced destinations in 2015

Inbound tourism, advanced and emerging economies International Tourist Arrivals, million

emerging economies

advanced economies

source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)

www.unwto.org