Research Proposal

Devastating Cyclone “Aila” and its Socio-Economic Impact

on Coastal Region of Bangladesh

Submission Date: 20/07/2009

Submitted To: Submitted By:

Professor Dr. Md. Saiful Islam Md. Naimur Rasheed

Head of Economics Discipline, Student No: 061538

Khulna University, Bangladesh Khulna University

Abstract

Natural disaster is very much common in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is not excluded

from its affect. Every year we usually face different types of disaster. Cyclone is

one of them. Aila in 2009 is more or less exceptional than the previous disaster

occurred in Bangladesh. The cyclone was the fifth natural disaster to affect

Bangladesh in the past twelve months. Previously, two monsoon floods and cyclone

Sidr had caused extensive damage to agricultural production and physical assets

mainly at coastal region. The successive occurrence of these events is a reminder of

the extreme vulnerability of the country to the very frequent hydro-meteorological

hazards that threaten Bangladesh, and which are likely to increase due to world

climate change.

1. Introduction and Theoretical Framework

1.1 Introduction

Cyclone is a tropical storm or atmospheric turbulence involving circular motion of winds, occurs in

Bangladesh as a natural hazard. The cyclone Aila formed in Bay of Bengal battered Bangladesh's

southwestern coast on May 25, leaving at least 179 people dead and over three million affected in

about a dozen of districts in the coastal areas. The tropics can be regarded as the region lying between

30°N latitude and 30°S latitude. All the tropical seas of the earth with the exception of the south

Atlantic and southeast Pacific give birth to deadly atmospheric phenomena known as tropical

cyclones. On an average, 80 tropical cyclones are formed every year all over the globe (BUET, 2008).

1.5 Theoretical Framework

Both qualitative and quantitative endeavors will be handled differently in the lines of inquiry. The

author tries to accomplish it by following ways:

Figure: Theoretical Framework

Aila

Aila Affected Community

Identifying the losses and

damages

Hiusing Agriculture ( live stock,

Rice, fish)

Find out the pre and post Aila

situation

Income

Expenditure

Housing condition

Food security

Employment

Poverty Find out the problem created by

the socio-economic losses and

damage

1.3 Relevance of the Research

Bangladesh is a disaster prone country that is affected almost every year by a natural disaster of some

kind. Located between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal and with three mighty rivers (Ganges,

Brahmaputra, and Meghna) converging on its territory, Bangladesh is prone to floods, torrential rains,

erosion, and cyclones. Over a period of 100 years, 508 cyclones have affected the Bay of Bengal

region, of which 17 percent made landfall in Bangladesh. A severe cyclone occurs almost once every

three years. Although the frequency of cyclones is not unusual compared to other cyclone hotspot

countries, the impact it causes stands out: 53 percent of the cyclones that claimed more than 5,000

lives took place in Bangladesh (GOB, 2008). This research may help to know the overall

socioeconomic scenario after the devastating Aila occured, so it will be very relevent topics for study.

2. Problem Statement

Bangladesh is a least-developed, low-income food-deficit country with an estimated 40 percent of the

population living below the poverty line. Of these, 56 million people live on 31 US dollar cents per

day or 2,122 kcal/capita/day and 36 million live on 27 US dollar cents a day or 1,805 kcal/capita/day

(FAO, 2008). Bangladesh is currently facing a creeping inflation, rising budget deficit and foreign

exchange challenges. On 25 May 2009 Cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of Bangladesh.

According to the localPress, some 2.3 million people were affected by Aila, many of them stranded in

flooded villages. Storm surges in Bangladesh flooded agricultural areas with salty water. Home to

roughly 25,000 residents, the coastal island Nijhum Dwip was reported to be completely submerged.

In this circumstances this research could be exemplify how severely Aila affect the socioeconomy of

Bangladesh coastal region. And it may help to consider the step towards this type of hazards.

3. Purpose of the Study

The purpose of the study is found out the scenario of this devastating cyclone and its socioeconomic

affect on coastal people of Bangladesh.

As we know hundreds of thousands displaced by a cyclone Aila could be homeless until the monsoon

season ends in three months, aid workers and the UN warn, despite government assurances most have

returned home. The storm destroyed mort than 4,000 kms of roads and embankments, thousands of

houses, livestock and other properties in eight districts in southwestern coasts, with affected areas still

being flooded twice daily at high tide which is contaminating drinking water.

Broadly the author aims to highlight at following cases:

To identify the damage and losses of the socio-economic sectors.

To ascertain the problem created by the socio-economic losses.

4. Literature Review

4.1 Review of the related literature

The researcer will take the literature review from various books, reports, journals, magazine, seminar

papers, suing GIS application and various webaddresses that focus on the issue will be studied during

preparation of this rsearch.

4.2 Related literature

Heather Blackwell, the head of Oxfam in Bangladesh said the homes of 75,000 families were still

damaged, with a third of those families living in ''camp-like'' settlements. Others were living in schools

and cyclone shelters, she said. ''Around 75,000 families are displaced, with around five people on

average in each family'', Blackwell said. ''About 25,000 families are living in long lines along the

embankments. Very few can return to their homes. I think it's very unlikely that we will see much

movement of people before the end of the monsoon season''. The Food and disaster minister Abdur

Razzak said the economic loss from Aila estimated at 18.85 billion taka (about 269.28 million US

dollars) ''The cyclone caused 18.85 billion taka loss, including losses due to damage of rural

infrastructures, schools, crops and livestock'',

5. Questions and Hypotheses

5.1 Research question

Since the perceived damages and consequences are known, the research question will be as follows:

Objectives Research questions Expected output

To identify the

damage and losses of

the socio-economic sectors

1 .What types of damage are done

during Sidr in terms of housing,

agriculture?

Identifying damages and

losses of socio-economic

sector in terms of housing, agriculture.

To ascertain the

problem created by

the socio-economic losses.

1. What is their economic

condition?

2. How their livelihood pattern? 3. What are the problems created in

socio-economic sectors?

4. How do the affected people maintain their family in that period?

Income pattern and source,

Expenditure, housing

condition, Food security, safety and comfort, health

condition, employment and

their problems.

5.2 Sub questions

Our research will consist of a qualitative part which serves to identify which changes and

consequences found in the literature are relevant for our research. Then some sub questions will be

addressed:

5.3 Null Hypothesis

The null hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has no socio economic impact on coastal

region of Bangladesh.

5.4 Alternative Hypothesis

The alternative hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has a significant socio economic

impact on coastal region of Bangladesh.

6. Research Strategy – Methodological Framework

In the context of an epistemological discussion, our opinion is that qualitative and quantitative

methods are complementary to each other. Both qualitative and quantitative research strategies will be

combined in this research in a consecutive order. Since we know the perceived affects and the

consequences, a qualitative strategy will be applied first in order to clarify, explore and define the

concepts. This qualitative part of researchers’ research is of exploratory and inductive nature.

6.1 Research Design and Data collection

Data will be collected using semi-structured interviews and a survey. In a chronological order, the

following actions will lead to the corresponding results.

1. Semi-structured interviews > Qualitative data

2. Analysis of qualitative data > Concepts and Hypotheses

3. Literature study > Verification and refinement of concepts and hypotheses

4. Survey > Quantitative data

5. Analysis of quantitative data > Conclusions on population level

6.2 Data Analysis

Qualitative strategy

Based on these concepts, dependent and independent variables and, subsequently, hypotheses can be

formulated. After refined by a literature study, the final concepts will be displayed in a matrix that

clarifies dimensions and indicators.

Quantitative strategy

The quantitative part consists of a survey and will be analyzed using SPSS. Because the hypothesis

and conceptual model are not clear yet, it is not possible to determine which techniques will be used.

6.3 Sample Strategy

Following Sampling technique may be considered in this research-

Population size

Stratified random Sampling

Different income groups

Proportional Random Sampling

Final target group

6.4 Research quality indicators

Qualitative strategy

The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the qualitative part of the research

1. Credibility 2.Confirmability 3.Dependability

Quantitative strategy

The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the quantitative part of the research on

validity and reliability.

1. Reliability

2. Validity

In the context of our quantitative research, validity can be divided into the two different types that are

described below:

- Measurement validity

- External validity

- Criterion validity

7.Limitations and Delimitations

7.1 Limitations:

Time constraints of the survey may be treat as a limitation for an ethnographic study. Because of vast

study area and a huge impact of Aila the observation through survey is too much dificult.

Communication that will not be revealed during observations. Being an outsider may also limit what is revealed to the researcher.

7.2 Delimitations:

The author choosing not to observe multiple samples of affected population, even though such

comparisons might be valuable, in order to allow more depth of understanding regarding the group on which the researcher focus. Additionally, the author will not use structured interviews in order to

minimise his obtrusiveness and influence on the sample.

8. Significance of the study

The coastal area has suffered a financial loss of about Taka 1,020 crore and a production loss of crops

of nearly 3.75 lakh tonnes as over 2.50 lakh hectares of land had been submerged due to the recent

devastating cyclone Aila. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) disclosed this after conducting a final assessment on the extent of damage to the crops. Various standing crops, including

Aus seedbeds, Aus paddy, Boro paddy, jute, chilli, vegetables, nut, palm, mung, betel leaf, banana,

papaya and mango, have been damaged as the cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of the country.

Meanwhile, this type of study may help to identify how this damage socio economically impact on the

coastal regions people.

And the research also can be treat as a side document for further study on this area.

This study can promote what type of steps or initiatives should be taken on this circumstences.

References

BUET (2008). Field investigation on the impact of cyclone Sidr in the coastal region of

Bangladesh.

FAO (2008).Food Assistance to cyclone affected populations of southern Bangladesh.

GOB, UNDP, World Bank (1993) multipurpose cyclone Shelter Programme. Executive

Summary of Final Report.

MoFDM (2008). "National plan for disaster management."

Piddington, H. (1848). The sailor's horn-book for the law of storms.

WFP (2008). Crop and food supply assessment mission.

WHO (2007). Communicable disease risk assessment and interventions

And like that other references will be include at the time of prepration of reference portion of main

research.

Appendixes

Research questionnaire, protocols of interview of target population and various tables of research will

be included in appendix portion. For example following tables have been shown here

Figure: Research Gape

Research Gape

To find out the existing socio-economic

condition

To ascertain the problem created by the

socio-economic losses.

The cyclone over Bangladesh at a glance

Date and Year Maximum

wind speed (km/hr)

Storm surge

Height (Meter)

Death Toll

11May 1965 161 3.7-7.6 19,279

15 December 1965 217 2.4-3.6 873

01 October 1966 139 6.0-6.7 850

12 November 1970 224 6.0-10.0 300,000

25 May 1985 154 3.0-4.6 11,069

29 April 1991 225 6.0-7.6 138,882

19 May 1997 232 3.1-4.6 155

15 November 2007 223 6.1-9.1 3363

25 May 2009 170 5.2-10.0 400

(Source: Bangladesh Metrological Department, 2009)