Transforming Transportation 2010

Next Steps after Copenhagen: Opportunities and Challenges in the

Transport Sector

Promoting Sustainable Transport in Bogota

 

January, 2010Camilo Zea

Metro Project

Bogotá in figures• Demographic data• Central Administration’s Finances• Public Transport System• Transport Policy

Demographic data

7 million inhabitants, 15% of Colombia Covers an area of 37,414 Ha High density (310 Hab/Ha) 1.2 million of private vehicles 18.000 buses Public transport’s average speed 18 Km/hr BRT system begun a decade ago

During the last 100 years Bogotá’s population has multiplied by 50, duplicating as a consequence its

density

1940

1950

1538 - 1912

1912 - 1939

1960 1970

1980

1990

Density: 149 hab/ha.

Density: 156 hab/ha.

Density: 157hab/ha.

Density: 222 hab/ha.

Density: 222 hab/ha. Density: 250 hab/ha

Density: 276hab/ha.

Density: 306 hab/ha.

Urban Transformation

2008

2038

Density: 310 hab/ha.

Density: 310hab/ha.

Urban Transformation Forecast 2008-2038

Population 2008: 7.155.052 Hab Population 2038:9.312.689 Hab

Public Transport Trips’ Distribution

THE FORECAST FOR 2018 SHOWS THAT THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CITY WILL ATRACT MORE THAN

1.500.000 DAILY TRIPS

Source: Observatorio de Movilidad de Bogotá y la Región. CCB Nº 1. December 2007

• TransMilenio has improved the mobility of 28% of the public transport system. Today, it mobilizes more than 1.5 million passengers per day.

Over supply (more than 18,000 buses on service) High-demand corridors close to saturation 580 routes without hierarchy Overlapping routes: on-the-street competition for passengers,

known as “penny war” Inadequate operational scheme High rates of emissions and accidents

28%

72%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1

Tran

sMile

nio

Bogotá’s Public Transport SystemTr

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ansp

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Bogotá’s Transport Policy - City’s Masterplan 2006

POLICIES SCOPE

1. Sustainable Mobility Mobility as a right and as a tool to improve the quality of life

2. Competitive Mobility Efficient use of resources, to guarantee mobility of people and goods

3. Environmentally friendly Mobility

Environmentally friendly transport policies to ensure well being and health of citizens.

4. Pedestrians as our priority

Prevailing role of pedestrians as part of the whole transport system

5. Public Transport as the structuring axe

Public Transport , with all its modes, as the corner-stone of the mobility system

6. Modal Integration Integration of all transport modes to improve access to the urban mobility system. The integration will improve its range and coverage

7. Smart mobility Development of an information system to integrate the role of the different elements of the mobility system

8. Socially responsible mobility

Mobility externalities that must be assumed by its different actors

9. Target-based mobility Establishment of a performance model which works gradually to fulfill the principles of the city’s masterplan

TransMilenio• 10 years of achievements• Contribution to the environment

TransMilenio: 10 years of achivements

The TransMilenio system replaced 1,500 obsolete buses on major corridors with newer and larger vehicles (Euro II technology). The result has been a more efficient system that has improved the mobility of millions of people without operating subsidies

TransMilenio was also part of an urban renewal program bringing other improvements to the city such as new public spaces, pedestrian streets, and about 150 miles of bicycle paths connecting with the TransMilenio system (Vincent, 2007).

Travel time reductions (12 min average)

88% fatalities reduction

Deteriorated urban sectors recovered

Land value increase around trunk corridors

and stations

Creation and consolidation of strategic

sectors in the city

Public space generation

Real estate developments

Green house effect reduction. Significant

drops in CO2 s, PM10, NOx, SOx,

emissions

Socio-economic strata

Trav

el ti

me

(min

)

Average travel time reduction in minutes

Startegic areas

TransMilenio: 10 years of achivements

•TransMilenio is the first big scale transport project in the world registered in the United nations under the Kyoto protocol, to mitigate climate change and reduce green gases effect since 2006.

TransMilenio: Contribution to the environment

BRT TRANSMILENIOº Ton CO2 - CER´s Ton CO2 - VER´s

Emissions reductions per year Kyoto MarketPhase II

Voluntary MarketPhase I

2001 - 2005 - 721,901

2006 59,020 158,605

2007 69,885 167,026

2008 68,813 160,473

SUBTOTAL – VERIFIED/CERTIFIED 197,718 1,208,005

TOTAL REDUCTIONS 1,405,723

230.000 (avg.) CO2 tons savings per

year

BRT TransMilenio Income (Carbon certificates) $COP Income (Carbon certificates) $USD

Year Kyoto Market Phase II

2006-2007 $ 2,637,674,018.00 $ 1,318,837

2008 $ 1,407,958,592.00 $ 703,979

Exchange Rate COP$2,000 = USD $1 $ 4,045,632,610.00 $ 2,022,816

Challenges & opportunities

Our Challenges: Copenhagen climate change conference conclusions

• For all its limitations, however, the Copenhagen Accord is the first real step to fighting climate change in the 21st century. The real value of the summit may lie in what it teaches us about dealing with climate change. (TIME 2009)

• The negotiations at Copenhagen were so contentious because of the very real impact the proposals will have, not only for the environment, but also on national economies; therefore, the importance of promoting climate investment funds (CIF)

Colombia is the second country from LA (after México) developing an Investment Plan (IP) for financing of Public Transport Systems through the Clean Technology Fund (CTF).

• It is fundamental to support projects (e.g.. environmentally friendly and sustainable transport projects), as tools to tackle environmental damage

Source: http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_1949054,00.html#ixzz0bm4y6US0

Our Opportunities: Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Colombia Investment Plan

The Clean Technology Fund (CTF) Investment Plan is a “business plan” agreed among, and owned, by the Government of Colombia (GoC) for the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to provide support for the low-carbon objectives contained in Colombia’s National Development Plan and its National Climate Change Strategy. (Bogotá’s IPTS proposed for CTF co-financing)

Transport is a major contributor to the carbon footprint of the country and is a sector where emissions will be difficult to abate; it is the fastest-growing source of CO2. The transport sector represents 33% of the country’s CO2e emissions from combustion of fossil fuels.

Source: IADB

Challenges & Opportunities

The sector has a great potential to reduce its carbon footprint through a wide range of low-carbon interventions

On a general level, there are three ways of reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector (Grütter, 2007):

• Reducing the demand for travel or transport services (e.g., by land use planning or regulatory instruments such as road taxes)

• Reducing the emissions per unit transported (e.g., by modal shift, increased occupancy rates, or use of larger units)

• Reducing the emissions per kilometer traveled (e.g., by improving driving behavior and vehicle efficiency or by switching to low-carbon fuels)

• In the case of Bogota, from the demand side, different policies to rationalize private vehicle use have been implemented since 2000, including plate number restrictions on specific days and promotion of car pooling.

• Along with this, the Integrated Public Transport System (IPTS) and Metro projects will reduce the number of vehicles-km (emissions) of the system :

Annual Vehicles-km Bogota Scenario 2009

Annual Vehicles-km Bogota 2011 SITP

Annual Vehicles-km Bogota 2018 Metro

1,122,402,441 943,052,325 891,984,810

Source: IADB

Our Projects

New scheme of routes, optimized and organized according to the city’s needs

Operation based on defined zones

Fleet conformed by the adequate typology of vehicles

Fare integration and unique payment system

Entrepreneurial scheme change

Democratization and active participation of owners

Gradual implementation

Upgrading and optimization of actual fleet

Full coverage of the city

Quality of service enhancement

Additional emissions reduction

Integrated Public Transport System (IPTS)

13 operational zones

Metro Project

New scheme of routes, optimized and organized according to the city’s needs

Increase productivity

Travel time reductions

Achieve an efficient distribution of demand vs. high levels of service quality

Long term solution - sustainable in time

Comfort levels improvement

The definition of the first metro line has been consequent with the objective of improving the accessibility of citizens, specially those with low income levels-

FF.CC. Norte

FF.C

C. d

e O

ccid

ente

TTT

Puente Aranda

Los Martires

AntonioNariño

Engativá

Chapinero Santa Fé

La Candelaria

BarriosUnidos

Portal del Tunal

72

NQS

2610ª

BOYACÁ

CALI

Portal de Las Américas

Portal del Sur

Portal del Norte

Portal de la 80

Portal de Suba

Portal de Usme

1st Line

2nd Line

3rd Line

4th Line

TransMilenio Connections

Railway conections

TransMilenio Connections

Railway conections

170

68

cable

Ciudad Bolívar

A

A

127

B

C

C

Expected Metro Network

Metro: An instrument for development

The metro will be part of the Integrated Public Transport System

As a new mode, the metro will strengthen transport multi-modality

The system optimizes land use, considering that it will be in some sections underground

The first line must be conceived as a complement to the transport current solution at the east border of the city

Bogota will consolidate its massive transport offer (Metro & BRT)

Key: accessibility gains to be capitalized in the land market (value capture opportunities)

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34

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7 89 10 11

12 13

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1517

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0

50.000.000.000

100.000.000.000

150.000.000.000

200.000.000.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

1

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Land value increase

Mechanism Advantage DisadvantageExported Credit Agencies (ECA)

Guarantee delivery provider entity

Restriction Amount / Infrastructure

Bonds Nation RiskLocal Money

Restricted amounts / Compete with nation

Development Bank Long term /Favourable Rates

currency risk

Government to government loans

Favorable rates /Cooperation Component

Long process of negotiation

Value Capture-based (development rights)

Up front financing (from the project’s benefits)

Climate Investment Funds

Depends on the project's environmental impact

Non-traditional Credits

Potential Funding Sources for Metro

Environmental Benefits: SITP (IPTS) & Metro projects

SITP

Metro + SITP

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

130000

135000

140000

145000

150000

155000

160000

165000

CO2 Savings per year

CO2 Savings per year

2´102.375 tons of CO2 saved 2011-2024

150.000 (avg.) CO2 tons less per year, additional to 230.000 CO2 tons yearly saved after Trans-Milenio implementation

Fleet Optimization

• According to detailed operational designs for the Integrated Public Transport System of Bogota, including Metro, fleet reductions will be:

It is evident that and adjustment of the transport sector, in terms of reducing oversupply through optimization and rationalization of the transit routes and services, is the most cost-effective solution for abatement of carbon-related emissions

Source: IADB

To implement the IPTS it will be necessary to scrap (chatarrizar) 8,000 buses considering its life cycle has been accomplished (more than 12 years). However, to guarantee service levels it will be necessary to provide the city with 3,200 new buses (Euro III Technology)

Conclusions

We must keep in mind that worldwide, it is estimated that around 75% of the projected increase in oil demand by 2030 will come from the transport sector; therefore all our efforts must be addressed in the same path for tackling this trend of emissions

Bogota is committed to achieve a sustainable transport system and mitigate transport externalities to our environment through the implementation of an Integrated Public Transport Systems (IPTS) – Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Metro systems, and initiatives that incorporate a coordinated urban planning strategy

In addition to contribute to a low-carbon economy, our sustainable transport initiatives will provide significant co-benefits:

• improved air quality• road safety• energy supply security• reduced congestion• A more livable city

The successful implementation of the IPTS in Bogota would have a multiplicative effect in other large and medium-sized cities in Colombia as well as in other emerging countries (the Transmilenio system is being replicated in several mid and low-income cities around the world). It is estimated that a national program over time, with the characteristics and scale of Bogota’s IPTS (assuming full replacement of the bus fleet with low-carbon technologies), could lead to an overall reduction of up to 24% in the carbon footprint of the transport sector. This, if achieved, and in absence of other measures, could result in a reduction of 3% of the national carbon footprint