Professor Brendan Mackey, PhDDirector, Griffith Climate Change Response Program

Griffith Universityemail: b.mackey@griffith.edu.au

South Pacific Study GroupGriffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

23 May, Nathan Campus, N72 Room 1-18

Human-forced climate change & the South Pacific

1. What is the “climate change problem”? Mitigation Adaptation

1. The challenges for SP Existing problems get worse Problems emerge from interactions New problems

3. The way forward Priorities Funding opportunities & risks Integration & mainstreaming National a& regional responses

overview

what is the climate change problem?

human forced, rapid climate change is an empirical scientific fact

Two necessary responses:1. Mitigation – reducing GHG emissions to a safe level2. Adaptation – adapting to impacts of unavoidable climate change

+12°C by 2200 ?!

What will “business as usual deliver?

(Source: Meinhausen, pers. comm.)

+5°C by 2100?

+12°C by 2200 ?!

What will “business as usual deliver?

(Source: Meinhausen, pers. comm.)

+5°C by 2100?

increasing international recognition of climate change as a security issue

Climate change has very real implications for international peace and securitySusan Rice (US Ambassador to UN)

Most national security establishments considered global warming as among the biggest security challenges of the centuryPeter Wittig (Permanent Representative of Germany to UN)

Source: Security Council 6587th Meeting, 2011 http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2011/sc10332.doc.htm

Make no mistake… climate change not only exacerbates threats to peace and security, it is a threat to international peace and securityBan Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General

climate change impacts will be increasingly felt in coming decades

Rising sea levels - storms surges, king tides, coastal inundation, ground water intrusion

Increasing intensity and frequency of extreme weather events – more droughts & floods

Increasing land and sea temperatures

Ocean acidification

Ice melt on land

Shifting ocean currents

the challenge for the South Pacific

South Pacific region: 22 Island Countries &Territories-200 high islands, 2,500 low islands & atolls

Pop. 2010: 9.9 million (15 million by 2035) 60% rural/40% urban Ocean-rich

South Pacific

Temperatures will continue to increase

More very hot days

Changing rainfall patterns

Ocean acidification will continue

Less frequent but more intense tropical cyclones

Ocean currents?

Sea level will continue to rise

Source: Climate Change in the Pacific: Scientific Assessment and New Research. Volume 1: Regional Overview. Volume 2: Country Reports. Available from November 2011.

The average positions of the major climate features in November to April. The arrows show near surface winds, the blue shading represents the bands of rainfall convergence zones, the dashed oval shows the West Pacific Warm Pool and H represents typical positions of moving high pressure systems.

summary of regional climate change

Climate change related changes to environm

ental variables in Milne Bay

Source: Skewes et al. (2011) M

elanesian coastal and marine ecosystem

assets: assessm

ent framew

ork and Milne Bay case study. CSIRO

.

increase in local extremes not just means

Generally, increasing intensity & frequency of extreme events; floods, droughts, fires, cyclones (not earthquakes)

no one lives in a place called “Average”

The question is how will the climate change where you live and work?

local affects of climate change are contingent

exposure is a critical factor

adaptive capacity varies within/between countries

Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-04/pacific-warriors-climate-change-action/4550898

adaptation is “local” but regional responses are also needed

1. Trans-border problems

2. Problems held in common between Melanesian countries

3. Shared (region-wide) capacity-building needs

Source: Foresight: Migration and Global Environmental Change (2011) Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London

migration, displacement & refugees

A number of dimensions of climate change have the potential – along with non-climatic environmental

changes – to influence the drivers of migration

Internal and trans-boundary migration

Poses logistical challenges & geo-political challenges

Trapped populations

Cities are extremely vulnerable to future environmental change Long term interactions critical

climate change impacts on fisheries Source: Vulnerability of Tropical Pacific Fisheries and Aquaculture to Climate Change, published by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC)

1. Changes in the distribution and abundance of tuna (mixed)2. Decline in coastal fisheries and coral reefs (20-50%)3. Increases in freshwater fisheries production (mixed)4. Increased operating costs

A range of adaptations can substantially reduce the risks and costs, but they need to be tailored to the circumstances

Planning for change is vital because fish is the single biggest source of animal protein in the Pacific diet.

Another 115,000 tonnes of fish needed to help provide good nutrition for the expanding population of the region by 2030 - an increase of 47%

Countries or areas at risk of dengue, 2011. The disease is currently distributed

only in areas in which the temperature remains >10°C year-round.)

climate change impacts on vector-borne diseases

Historically experienced relatively fewmalaria outbreaks and the population has limited immunity to the disease and less awareness of its

prevention than lowland populations.

In recent years, cases of malaria reported at increasingly higher altitudes - the effects of climate

change such as increased ambient temperature, rainfall affecting the availability of breeding sites and

vector ecology and indirect effects on human behaviour, may be contributory factors

VBDs such as malaria, dengue, tick-borne diseases and plague are particularly susceptible for a number

of reasons: the geographical distribution and behaviour of vectors and their hosts are intimately associated with environmental determinants, and

transmission dynamics tend to favour warmer, wetter environments.

Source: Final project report: Strengthen control of vector borne diseases to lessen the impact of climate change in the Western Pacific Region with focus on

Cambodia, Mongolia and Papua New Guinea. World Health Organization Western Pacific Region 2012;

http://www.wpro.who.int/mvp/climate_change/en/

climate change adaptation

adaptation consists of actions undertaken to reduce the adverse consequences of climate change, as well as to harness any beneficial

opportunities. Adaptation actions aim to reduce the impacts of climate stresses on human and natural systems.

Sustainably managing, conserving and restoring ecosystems so that they continue to provide the services that allow people to adapt to climate change

This approach builds on traditional knowledge Generates a range of social, economic and cultural benefits and helps to conserve

biodiversity Co-benefits for climate change mitigation through improved retention and restoration of

ecosystem carbon stocks Community leadership critical

Source:www.bestlibrary.org/newslaw/2008/07/welcome.html

“Approaches that involve the services that biodiversity and ecosystems provide as part of an overall adaptation strategy to help people adapt to the adverse effects of climate change are known as ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation. The underlying principleis that healthy ecosystems can play a vital role in maintaining and increasing resilience toclimate change and in reducing climate-related risk and vulnerability.” (Source: UNFCCC SSBSTA Report FCCC/SBSTA/2011/INF.8)d

special role for ecosystem-based adaptation

“People from Melanesia heavily rely on their land for their livelihoods. They depend on their environment for food and income from cash crops, for clean water, fertile soil, forests for building materials, medicine and for hunting. Compared to other countries, most Melanesians have very small ‘carbon footprints’ having contributed very little to global warming and climate change. Unfortunately they will be among those most vulnerable to the impacts ofclimate change due to their high dependency on their immediate environment and close proximity to the coast.” Live & Learn Environmental Education

Source: Sharma K.L. (2006) Food Security in the South Pacific Island Countries with Special Reference to the Fiji Islands. Research Paper No. 2006/68, UNU.

Crops-grown on land accessed through customary land tenure

arrangement or leased from traditional land owners

CountryGDP (US$B)

GDP per capita ($)

% GDP in Agriculture

% workforce in Agriculture

Fiji 3.946 4,800 11 70

The Solomon Islands 1.039 3,400 33 75

Vanuatu 0.761 4,900 21 65

New Caladonia 9..28 37,700 2 20

PNG 15.390 2,700 28 85

Kiribati 0.174 5,900 24 3

Samoa 0.712 6,200 9 65

Source: The World Fact Book, CIA

Source: Skewes et al. (2011) Melanesian coastal and marine ecosystem assets: assessment framework and Milne Bay case study. CSIRO.

ecosystem-based adaptation methodology

Adaptation measure

Adaptive function

Social and cultural

Economic Biodiversity

Mitigation

Mangrove conservation

Protection against storm surges, sea- level rise and coastal inundation

Provision of employment options (fisheriesand prawn cultivation)Contribution to food security

Generation of income to local communities through marketingof mangrove products (fish, dyes, medicines)

Conservation of species that live or breed in mangroves

Conservation of carbon stocks, both above and below-ground

Forest conservation and sustainable forest management

Maintenance of nutrient and water flowPrevention of land slides

Opportunities for

Recreation

Culture

Protection ofIndigenous peoples and local Communities

Potential generation of income through:

Ecotourism, Recreation

Non-wood forest products

Conservation of habitat for forest plant and animal species

Conservation of carbon stocksReduction of emissions from deforestation degradation

Source: Convention on Biological Diversity. Connecting Biodiversity and Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Report of the Second Ad Hoc Technical Expert Group on Biodiversity and Climate Change. Technical Series No. 41. Montreal: Convention on Biological Diversity

examples of ecosystem-based adaptation measures that provide co-benefits

calculation of costs for each option implemented throughout Lami Town, Fiji (at a 3% discount rate)

Source: Rao N.S., Carruthers T.J.B., Anderson P., Sivo L., Saxby T., Durbin, T., Jungblut V., Hills T., Chape S. 2013. An economic analysis of ecosystem-based adaptation and engineering options for climate change adaptation in Lami Town, Republic of the Fiji Islands. A technical report by the Secretariat of the Pacifi c Regional Environment Programme. – Apia, Samoa : SPREP 2013

the way forward…

no shortage of climate change adaptation activity in the region

Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change (PIFACC) Hundreds of “on-ground”, community-based climate change

projects under way in the South Pacific, but, what will be their legacy?

What will happen to the data and information they produce? Will it be “discoverable” and “re-usable” by practitioners and decision makers?

Will national and regional priorities be addressed? Will knowledge gaps be filled? How will wasteful duplication be avoided?

Will these on-ground projects run by partners be guided by and consistent with national and regional policies?

Will they be integrated into strategic planning and governmental processes?

$600 billion to 1.5 trillion (2012)Estimated annual cost to help developing countries transition to low-carbon and climate-resilient economies

Australia invested $150 million from 2008–09 to meet high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries. This assistance will be scaled up by $178.2 million over two years to 2012–13—a total of $328.2 million

no shortage of climate change funds for the region

$100 billion per year by 2020 for mitigation and adaptation in developing countries

Green Climate Fund

regional priorities

1. Accessing Climate change adaptation finance Mitigation a funding opportunity e.g. diesel generators, REDD

2. Harmonisation & prioritization of regional climate change mitigation & adaptation projects & programs National priorities (e.g. PNG VBD) Shared problems (coastal zone management, tourism, water security) Trans-border issues (migration/displacement, fisheries)

3. Capacity building of early career practitioners & researchers in country line-departments and regional bodies

4. Mainstreaming climate change responses into sustainable development, green economy & national/community planning Scenarios Strategies Options Actions

“additionality” or co-benefits?

a case of the “invisible man”?

or more like the “Emperor's new clothes”?

just “the latest fashion”?

a Furphy?

Is climate change adaptation…