Prof. Gh. Marmureanu - Project Manager

Project DACEA: „DAnube Cross-border system for Earthquakes Alert”

GUVERNUL ROMANIEI

The Sustainable Innovation, Romania, November 29,2012

Project title DAnube Cross-border system for Earthquakes Alert

Lead partner (PL).

National Institute of Research and Development for Earth Physics

Priority axis no.

2. Environment

Key Area of Intervention

2. Development of joint infrastructure and services to prevent the impact of natural and man-made crises, including joint emergency response services

Partners: 2.

Geophysical Institute of Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

3.

OLTENIA” DOLJ COUNTY INSPECTORATE FOR EMERGENCY SITUATIONS

4.

Association of the Danube River Municipalities “Danube”

5.

The Foundation for Democracy, Culture and Liberty, Calarasi Branch

The innovative aspects of this early warning system  is that it   can make a substantial contribution to overall risk reduction objectives by enabling vulnerable groups to take timely action to mitigate loss and damage in advance of an impending hazard event. Integration of early warning system into real-time information systems turns out to be a crucial step and essential tool to mitigate the impact of strong earthquakes  on urban environment in this part of World.

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels,23.2.2009 COM(2009) 82 final A Community approach on the prevention of natural and man-made disasters Section 3.2.4 : Reinforcing early warning tools

The ability of citizens and policy makers to mitigate disasters depends, to a great extent, on access to reliable early warning tools by:

● Reducing alert times of early warning systems;●Continuing the cooperation with the southern Mediterranean

countries that aims at improving the access of existing early warning systems to real time information;

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels,23.2.2009 COM(2009) 82 final A Community approach on the prevention of natural and man-

made disasters Section 3.2.4 : Reinforcing early warning

tools

The recent stress and strain pattern in the Central Mediterranean Area

Strain transfer from the active Adriatic, Aegean and Vrancea deformation fronts throughout the ALCADI – Pannonian system

VranceaVrancea

AdrianAdrian

AegeanAegeanThe strain transfer from the active Adriatic,Aegean

and Vrancea deformation fronts through the ALCADI-Pannonian System

Conditions for earthquake warning system -High seismic activity -Small epicenter area: 30 x 70 kmp-Seismic information from long time

Vrancea Vrancea seismicity !seismicity !

Earthquakes in the Carpathian-Pannonian region are confined to the crust, except the Vrancea zone, where earthquakes with focal depth down to 200 km occur. For example, the ruptured area migrated from 150 km to 180 km (Nov. 10,1940 Vrancea earthquake, Mw =7.7), from 90 to 110 km (March 4, 1977 earthquake, Mw =7.4),from 130 to 150 km (Aug. 30, 1986, Mw = 7.1) and from 70 to 90 km (May 30,1990, Mw =6.9) depth.The depth interval between 110 km and 130 km remains not ruptured since 1802, Oct. 26, when it was the strongest earthquake occurred in this part of Central Europe. The magnitude is assumed to be Mw =7.9 - 8.0 and this depth interval is a natural candidate for the next strong Vrancea event. The strong seismic events originating from Vrancea area can generate the most destructive effects experienced in Romania and Bulgaria, and may seriously affect high risk man-made structures such as nuclear power plants (Cernavoda, Kozloduj etc.),chemical plants, large dams, and pipelines located within a wide area from Central Europe to Moscow or to Rome. More, Vrancea type of seismicity is nowhere else observed on earth [1].

TThe 1977, Mw=7.4 Vranceahe 1977, Mw=7.4 Vrancea earthquake earthquake, , h=h=995 km,5 km, I IBUCHARESTBUCHAREST== IX IX½½ MSK MSK; IRUSSE =IX MSK; IRUSSE =IX MSK

High dynamic amplification at long periods, dangerous for high buildings,

that makes Bucharest the most dangerous capital city of Europe

In Romania: 1578 dead and 11,321 injured (90% of dead and injured 67% of Bucharest), 36 blocks in Bucharest, fell to the ground, 32,900 houses collapsed or severely damaged 35,000 families homeless, tens of thousands of buildings damaged, many other damage and destruction in the industry and economy etc. On territory of Bulgaria: 285 dead and injured, 8470 buildings partially destroyed and ruined etc.

What can be done?

ObjectivesObjectives : :

█ Prevention of the natural disasters generated by earthquakes in cross- border area Romania-Bulgaria, developing the early warning integrated communication network and capacity building at local level based on results of research in this field;█ Assessment of the seismic risk degree and the earthquakes effects in the Romania – Bulgaria cross-border area, based on the updating of the current database existed in the two countries specialized institutions and on the geological, economical and social particularities; █ To develop and implement an integrated seismic detection network with IT&C facilities for risk assessment and risk scenarios; █ Increase the capacity at local institutions/emergency intervention units for joint response activities in the case of disasters based on a efficient preparedness for citizens and local institutions – hospitals, schools, businesses in cross-border area…

TOTAL / partner

Lead partner Partner 2 Partner 3

Partner 4 Partner 5

5,706,096.00 4,757,926.00 347,700.00 0.00 68,700.00 531,770.00

BUDGET :

ESTIMATED ELIGIBLE EXPEDITURE CALENDAR :Reimbursement Total :

  Approved

Accomplished Estimate

Reimbursement 1- 5 4,076,851 58,5051.81

Reimbursement  6-10 1,629,245

5,121,044.19

Total: 5,706,096Obs. There have been delays in the tender for equipment…Value for equipment = 3,673, 350 Euro

TIME of Vrancea eaTIME of Vrancea earrthquake thquake alertalert ! !

EWS is based on the difference between speed of S and P seismic waves and data transmission speed.

Usually it is a time period ranging from several seconds to 1.00 minute.

Earthquakes at depths h=150 km, 29 sec. the warning time for Bucharest

Early Warning System for Deep Strong Vrancea Eartquakes (EWS) – NIEP

EWS for irradiator nuclear installation from Bucharest- Magurele

EWS and Shake Map Location in seismic risk management, in security of critical infrastructure systems as a system of systems in cross boder area !

EEWS

NIEP NDC Earthquake parameters

LOCAL AUTHORITYLOCAL GOVERNMENTCIVIL PROTECTION

DANGEROUS FACILITIES (SWITCH OFF)

PUBLIC- Alert- Information

FLOW DIAGRAM OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER FLOW DIAGRAM OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER INFORMATIONINFORMATION……

Warning using RDS-FM…Warning using RDS-FM…

The NIEP command room from Bucharest

PLANUL NATIONAL DE CERCETARE,DEZVOLTARE SI INOVARE 2007-2013, PNII

Program PARTENERIATE Subprogram “Proiecte Colaborative de Cercetare Aplicativa” „Bridging the gap between seismology and

earthquake engineering. From the seismicity of Romania towards refined implementation of seismic action of European Norm EN 1998-1 in earthquake resistant design of buildings ”

Project Director: Prof.Gh.Marmureanu

Contract nr.72/2012-2015 : 3.524.500 lei

1.Institutul National pentru Fizica Pamantului 2.Univ.Tehnica de Contructii Bucuresti 3.Urban -INCERC Bucuresti 4. AEDIFICIA CARPATI S.A.

●In the EU strategy ,the Commission and the Council of the European Union have identified standardization as a key instrument for improvement in order to foster innovation (Brussels, 11.3.2008,COM(2008) 133 final-Towards an increased contribution from standardization to innovation to Europe).

●A stronger role for standardization in support of innovation is important for the Europe effort to address economic, environmental and social challenges.

●Refined implementation of seismic action of European Norm EN 1998-1 in earthquake resistant design of building in Romania area has a dimension of public interest, in particular whenever issues of safety, health, security and of the environment are at stake.

●In addition the standard-setting process needs to be in line with EC 8 European competition provisions.

Innovative aspects of the project:●The scientific WPs of the project pursue several objectives

which are innovative from a scientific and/or techno-logical point of view. The general objective of the project is to enhance the capability of…and real seismology to mitigate the effects of the incoming destructive waves on structures and the increase the efficiency of emergency management. The objective requires research at the frontier of seismology, nonlinear seismology etc.

●However, dynamic standardization in earthquake engine-ering by taking into consideration the last data and new knowledge in seismology,earth physics and engineering seismology fields is an important enabler of innovation as follows:

(a)-New seismic hazard standards in Romania will express the state of the art give innovators a level playing field facilitating interoperability and competition between new and already existing ones. New standards provide designers with trust in the safety and performance of new products;

(b)-The development of new seismic hazard standards in Romania is also necessary to accompany the emergence of new operators and corporations from Europe and the introduction of complex design and construction systems compatible with deep Vrancea earthquakes and crustal ones from other countries ;

(c)-The use of new seismic hazard standards in Romania will contribute to diffusing knowledges and facilitating the application of technologies and this may then trigger new innovations, in particular nontechnological innovations in the management sector, new values-added to European Community.

a).Acceleratia maxima a terenului PGA si acceleratia de varf efectiva a terenului EPA:

EPA = SAmax / 2.5

b).Viteza maxima a terenului PGV si viteza de varf a terenului EPV:

EPV = SVmax / 2.5

Spectral amplification factors (SAF). Damping ζ=5% . Earthquake Comp. Sa(g)max Sa(g)max /amax ; Sv(m/s)max Sv(m/s)max/vmax

…………………………………………………………………………….Aug.30,1986 N-S 0.193 3.74 24.10 5.56MW=7.1;131 km Z 0.203 3.14 22.58 8.33 E-W 0.261 4.05 23.60 5.82…………………………………………………………………………….May 30,1990 N-S 0.398 3.65 31.77 3.23MW=6.9; 90km Z 0.153 2.83 20.11 2.76 E-W 0.488 4.75 38.16 3.89…………………………………………………………………………….May 31,1990 N-S 0.173 3.41 12.43 2.15MW=6.4;79km Z 0.050 3.43 12.51 9.55 E-W 0.293 5.75 23.35 8.11

The innovation is in fact the magnet ... and the business is coming to

innovation !

Thank you for your attention !