PROCESSES, CYCLES, AND POLICIES OF POPULATION

CHANGE

A Population Explosion!

Worldwide Population Trends– Most recent figures

2002: Births & Deaths

– Population growth? Where does it occur? Gender issues

– Population Decline? Europe vs. other countries In a decade...

21st Century Trends?– Base population– Growth Rates: a map

More Trends

What does the map show?– Wide range of growth rates by region– India's growth rate decline– Africa's overall growth rate while still high is being

impacted by the AIDS epidemic – Muslim countries– South Asia– China– South America– Location of slowest growing countries

More Trends

Dimensions of population growth

Exponential not linear growth

Doubling time Lessons from the

population explosion

Early Warnings: Malthus

Thomas Malthus’ essay in 1798 Was Malthus Right?

– Neo-Malthusians Growing numbers Malthus could not imagine current human suffering

Difficult to apply Malthus's ideas below the global scale

Population Structure Population pyramid

– Broad-based vs. Narrow-based vs. rectangular

Demographic Cycles

Demography: the study of population – Spatial component = population geography

Natural increase– Crude birth rate (CBR)– Crude death rate (CDR)

The Birth Rate Fertility Rate Death Rate

Past Population Change

Limits on population growth:– Epidemics and plagues– Famines– Wars wiped out population gains– Nature

Past Population Change

The Second Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution– Europe during the eighteenth century– Europe during the nineteenth century– Increasing population brought about emigration– European colonization

Demographic Change

The three demographic variables:1. Births

2. Deaths

3. Migration (immigration and emigration)

Demographic TransitionFour stages:

1) High stationary stage; 2) Early expanding stage; 3) Late expanding stage;4) Low stationary stage

Demographic transition is represented by stages 2 and 3, during which high birth and death rates decline.

Demographic Change

Developing countries– Less advantages– Does everyone go through all four stages?– Some countries may have subsiding population growth

without economic growth– Stationary population level (SPL)

POLICY RESPONSES TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

Role of the United Nations

Population conferences– Held every ten years– First held in 1974 in Bucharest– Second conference in 1984 in Mexico City– The 1994 Cairo conference– 2004 conference

National Population Policies

Three groups of population policies– Expansion population policies– Eugenic population policies– Restrictive population policies

Limitations of policies? Contradictions?

Three Case Studies

Japan– Expansion eras = several children encouraged– Growing urban centers reduced birth rate = stabilized– Post-World War II– Eugenic Protection Act, 1948– Abortions = decreased birth rate– 1947 birth rate > 34 per 1000; 1957 = 18 per 1000– Governmental Action, 1991

Three Case Studies

India– Will be the world's most populous country soon– Population > 1 billion– A culturally complex country– Population planning

1950s, limited funds 1960s, more money A national program was instituted Used advertising and persuasion Some areas are progressing

Three Case Studies

China– Up to 1980s– In 1979 the government launched a policy inducing

couples to have only one child Penalties and hardships of the one-child policy

– 1984 rural relaxation– Results of party-imposed system breakdown– 2000 growth rate < 1%– One-child policy has had a major social impact in a

society where sons carry on the family name– Zero population growth policy– Emphasizes population dilemma depth

Policies Targeting Migration

Policies Targeting Migration

Control of immigration—legal and illegal—a hot issue around the world– U.S. actions?

California demands federal help to provide services for hundreds of thousand of illegal immigrants

Cuban refugees Haitians were prevented from entering Florida Arizona?? What are the issues?

– Restricting migration is nothing new

Legal Restrictions

United States:– Oriental Exclusion Acts (1882

1907)– Restrictive legislation for

Europeans, 1921– National Origins Law took

effect in 1929– Modified after 1940– Refugees– Quota System: abolished in

1965

Australia:– 1901 Immigration

Restriction Act

Other countries:– South Africa– New Zealand– Brazil– South America in

general

Resource

Video: Rosling-3rdWorldMyth– A .zip file from the wonderful site:

http://www.ted.org

Discussion

How can we effectively manage population growth? How can we effectively manage immigration (legal

and illegal)? Any ideas for migrant workers?