Presentation to Member State experts at management Committee
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Transcript of Presentation to Member State experts at management Committee
Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 28 August 2014
28 August 2014 2!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
EU Productions
Total Butter+ 3,0%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 9,6%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed milk
powder+ 16,7%
Cheese+ 0,4%
Fermented milk- 4,3%
Cows' Milk Collected
+ 5,1%
- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20%
Evol
ution
in
%
EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development (Jan - Jun 2014 compared to Jan - Jun 2013)
Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : June missing for EL, SK, DK in some products
Total Butter+ 2,3%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 12,1%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder
and partly skimmed milk
powder+ 11,7%
Cheese+ 0,1%
Fermented milk- 4,6%
Cows' Milk Collected
+ 5,0%
- 10% - 5% + 0% + 5% + 10% + 15% + 20%
Evol
ution
in
%
EU-28 Deliveries/Productions development(Apr 2014 - Jun 2014 compared to Apr 2013 - Jun 2013)
Source : MS' Communications to EurostatRem : June missing for EL, SK, DK in some products
28 August 2014 3
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan
01
Jan
02
Jan
03
Jan
04
Jan
05
Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
EUR/ 100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to J une 14)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)
Milk Prices (LTO)
Source :MS’ communications under reg. 562/ 2005 & 479/ 2010 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http:/ / www.milkprices.nl/ )
28 August 2014 4Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
55
,6
47
,6
46
,2
43
,0
42
,3
42
,0
41
,6
41
,2
38
,6
38
,3
38
,0
37
,9
37
,7
36
,9
36
,0
35
,8
35
,8
35
,7
34
,7
34
,3
34
,1
34
,0
33
,7
33
,6
32
,8
32
,4
29
,6
29
,2
26
,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
CY FI MT DK EL NL SE IT UK AT DE LU EU IE BE FR ES HR SI PT CZ BG HU SK EE PL LV RO LT
in E
UR/100 kg
E U M I L K P R I C E S
Milk Price 2013
Milk Price 2014
Source : Member States (Reg. 479/2010)
( Jun 2014 vs Jun 2013 )
Estimates for DK, IT, SE
28 August 2014 5Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00
kg
Weekly EU SMP Prices
2011 2012 2013 2014 IP 2009
Latest price : 258 EUR/ 100kg
Evolution compared to same period last year : -19%
28 August 2014 6Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
De
c
EU
R/1
00
kg
Weekly EU BUTTER Prices
2011 2012 2013 2014 IP 2009
Evolution compared to same period last year : -18%
Latest price : 336 EUR/ 100kg
28 August 2014 7Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
De
c
EU
R/1
00
kg
Weekly EU WMP Prices
2011 2012 2013 2014
Evolution compared to same period last year : -21%
Latest price : 292 EUR/ 100kg
28 August 2014 8
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar Apr
May Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/
100
kg
Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices
2011 2012 2013 2014
Evolution compared to same period last year : +2%
Latest price : 384 EUR/ 100kg
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
r
May Ju
n Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EUR/
100
kg
Weekly EU EDAM Prices
2011 2012 2.013 2.014
Evolution compared to same period last year : -4%
Latest price : 332 EUR/ 100kg
28 August 2014 9
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
De
c
EU
R/1
00
kg
Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices
2011 2012 2013 2014
Evolution compared to same period last year : -11%
Latest price : 94 EUR/ 100kg
28 August 2014 10
USD/EUR
Source: European Central Bank
US Dollar
1.3192
28 August 2014 11
3.488
3.635
3.230
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
6.000M
ay
07
Aug
07
Nov
07
Fe
b 08
Ma
y 08
Aug
08
Nov
08
Fe
b 09
Ma
y 09
Aug
09
Nov
09
Fe
b 10
Ma
y 10
Aug
10
Nov
10
Fe
b 11
Ma
y 11
Aug
11
Nov
11
Fe
b 12
Ma
y 12
Aug
12
Nov
12
Fe
b 13
Ma
y 13
Aug
13
Nov
13
Fe
b 14
Ma
y 14
Pric
es in
US
D/t
onne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
28 August 2014 12
3.713
4.4504.510
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
6.000
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul 0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul 0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul 1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul 1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Apr
12
Jul 1
2
Oct
12
Jan
13
Apr
13
Jul 1
3
Oct
13
Jan
14
Apr
14
Jul 1
4
Pric
es in
US
D/t
onne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
28 August 2014 13
3.363
4.584
5.580
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
6.000
Ma
y 07
Aug
07
Nov
07
Fe
b 08
Ma
y 08
Aug
08
Nov
08
Fe
b 09
Ma
y 09
Aug
09
Nov
09
Fe
b 10
Ma
y 10
Aug
10
Nov
10
Fe
b 11
Ma
y 11
Aug
11
Nov
11
Fe
b 12
Ma
y 12
Aug
12
Nov
12
Fe
b 13
Ma
y 13
Aug
13
Nov
13
Fe
b 14
Ma
y 14
Pric
es in
US
D/t
onne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
28 August 2014 14
4.200
5.159
4.740
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
6.000
Ma
y 07
Aug
07
Nov
07
Fe
b 08
Ma
y 08
Aug
08
Nov
08
Fe
b 09
Ma
y 09
Aug
09
Nov
09
Fe
b 10
Ma
y 10
Aug
10
Nov
10
Fe
b 11
Ma
y 11
Aug
11
Nov
11
Fe
b 12
Ma
y 12
Aug
12
Nov
12
Fe
b 13
Ma
y 13
Aug
13
Nov
13
Fe
b 14
Ma
y 14
Pric
es in
US
D/t
onne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
28 August 2014 15
28 August 2014 16
28 August 2014 17
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
40 55 70 89130
168
235
1000 Tonnes
China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Jul 2014 compared to 2013 : + 68%
20132014
0
50
100
150
200
250
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
121152 165 155
194236
198
1000 Tonnes
Mexico
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-May 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%
20132014
Jan-May 2014 compared to 2013 : - 4%
28 August 2014 18
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
58 46177
326 320406
619
1000 Tonnes
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan-Jul 2014 compared to 2013 : + 67%
2013
2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
160 153200
167204 188
142
1000 Tonnes
Algeria
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
J an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnesJan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%
2013
2014
Jan-Apr 2014 compared to 2013 : + 14%
19
EU Dairy Exports to Russia (2013) Version 2
in '000 Tonnes
EU production 1
(2013)EU exports 1-3
(2013)% exports /
prod.
EU exports to Russia 1-3
(2013)
% exports to Russia / exports
% exports to Russia / prod.
Exports to russia in milk equivalents 4
'000 Tons '000 Tons % '000 Tons % '000 Tons
a b c=b/a d e=d/b f=d/a g
Cheese 0406 9 703 787 8% 257 33% 2.7% 1 460
SMP 0402 10 1 092 407 37% 21 5% 1.9% 110
Butter (incl. Butteroil) 0405 2 182 132 6% 37 28% 1.7% 420
Wheypowder ex 0404 10(p) 2 320 ² 515 22% 25 5% 1.1% 160
WMP 0402 2x 698 374 54% 3 1% 0.4% 20
Condensed 0402 9x 1 215 * 251 21% 3 1% 0.2% 10
Fresh products (incl. Yogurts) 0401 + ex 0403(f) 46 495 675 1% 66 10% 0.1% 50
Buttermilk in powder ex 0403 90(p) 31 1 4% -
Whey not in powder ex 0404 10(f) 1 0 0% -
Other Milk constituents 0404 90 62 2 3% -
Finished products 190190 11 +99 572 45 8% -
Food prep. 210690 92+98 1 121 106 9% -
* 2012 figure 2 200~ 1.5 % of total EU milk production
Lactose 1702 xx + 2106 9051 645 152 24% 10 7% 1.6% -
Casein(ate)s ex 3501 135 ² 62 46% 2 3% 1.2% 20
1 DG AGRI - Short Term Outlook - Summer 2014
² EUROSTAT - New Cronos, DG AGRI estimations
³ EUROSTAT - Comext4 based on fat and protein content
20
3%
7%
0%
1%
1%
3%
4%
5%
5%
8%
9%
10%
28%
33%
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200
Casein(ate)s
Lactose
Whey not in powder
WMP
Condensed
Other Milk constituents
Buttermilk in powder
Wheypowder
SMP
Finished products (1901)
Food preparations (2106)
Fresh products
Butter
Cheese
'000 Tonnes
EU exports of Dairy products to Russia compared to total EU exports of Dairy products (year 2013)
EU exports to other third countries
EU exports to Russia
Series3
21
4%
4%
0%
1%
1%
1%
2%
4%
5%
8%
9%
10%
26%
29%
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Casein(ate)s
Lactose
Whey not in powder
WMP
Condensed
Buttermilk in powder
SMP
Other Milk constituents
Wheypowder
Finished products (1901)
Food preparations (2106)
Fresh products
Butter
Cheese
'000 Tonnes
EU exports of Dairy products to Russia compared to total EU exports of Dairy products (Jan-Jun 2014)
EU exports to other third countries
EU exports to Russia
Series3
22
0 to 200 200 to 300 300 to 400 400 to 1 000 1 000 to 1 400 1 400 to 3 500 3 500 to 9 000 9 000 to 28 000
n/a1 300
400
1 500
3 900
25 600
400
4 100
1 2002 600
21 800
8 900
100
300
1 200
0
500
0
9 400
1 200
8 800
800
600100
400
1 600
1 700
4 600
Source : Eurostat
300
23
0.0% to 0.0% 0.0% to 0.1% 0.1% to 0.2% 0.2% to 0.4% 0.4% to 0.9% 0.9% to 2.6% 2.6% to 11.4% 11.4% to 28.0%
n/a2.9
0.3
1.7
3.5
1.0
15.8
0.2
00
0.8
0.5
0.1
19.8
20.3
0
0.1
0
4.1
1.1
2.5
0.1
00.2
0.7
26.1
0.2
0.3
Source : Eurostat
0
24
0.0% to 0.3% 0.3% to 0.9% 0.9% to 1.5% 1.5% to 6.9% 6.9% to 8.9% 8.9% to 12.9% 12.9% to 47.6% 47.6% to 88.0%
n/a7.8
3.2
9.4
12.2
14.2
87.0
1.5
1.00.5
6.4
8.6
1.1
84.0
65.7
0
0.5
0
12.4
8.9
21.1
0.7
01.8
19.5
63.5
0.9
7.5
Source : Eurostat
0.2
Dairy Exporting countries
Main export destinationsin Mio EUR
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6thin '000 tonnes in '000 tonnes
EU27 153 200 * 15 900 10% Russia United States China Switzerland Saudi Arabia Algeria1 464 788 703 432 366 358
United States 90 865 9 100 10% Mexico China Canada Philippines Indonesia Korea, South Russia1 100 408 263 233 211 208 … 3
Australia 9 480 3 200 34% Japan China Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Russia305 225 162 122 96 70 … 54
Canada 8 450 400 5% United States EU Japan Philippines Egypt Cuba125 16 12 12 11 10
Norway 1 584 200 13% United States EU Australia Canada Russia Singapore31 30 14 11 3 0
263 579 28 800 11%
New Zealand 20 500 ° 19 500 95% China Philippines Un. Arab Emir. Malaysia Indonesia Japan Russia2 822 332 301 294 267 255 … 71
Switzerland 4 101 800 20% EU United States Canada Russia Japan Hong Kong402 62 17 8 5 5
Turkey 15 978 500 3% Iraq Saudi Arabia Azerbaijan Kuwait Syria Un. Arab Emir.330 36 16 12 11 9
Serbia 1 465 100 7% Montenegro Russia EU Bosnia Macedonia Norway18 15 10 8 6 1
Argentina 11 815 2 700 23% Venezuela Brazil Algeria United States China Russia219 204 183 110 99 97
Brazil 32 304 100 0% United States Venezuela Un. Arab Emir. Angola Saudi Arabia EU32 28 15 14 9 8
Uruguay 2 100 1 500 71% Venezuela Brazil Russia China Algeria United States224 154 69 59 34 25
Mexico 10 881 200 2% United States EU Guatemala Saudi Arabia Puerto Rico (U.S.) Ukraine82 61 11 6 5 4
Chile 2 650 400 15% Mexico Un. Arab Emir. China EU Brazil Peru Russia39 25 19 19 15 11 … 2
* : source DG AGRI 105 190 32 995° : Source DCANZ
in Mio EUR
Production of Cow's Milk (FAO 2012)
Total Dairy Exports in Milk equiv. (2013)
Counties affected by the Russian ban
Other Dairy exporting countries
28 August 2014 26
7.000
7.200
7.400
7.600
7.800
8.000
8.200
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
in t
on
ne
s
.
Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Source:USDA
Jan-Jul 2014 vs 2013 : + 1.7% (real monthly production)
28 August 2014 27Source: Dairy Australia
,500
,600
,700
,800
,900
1,000
1,100
1,200
Jul
Au
g
Sep Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
in t
on
ne
s
Jul-Jun 2013/14 compared to 2012/13 : + 0.4%
Australian milk production
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
28 August 2014 28Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
in t
on
ne
s
.
Jun-Jun 2014/15 compared to 2013/14 : + 11.5%
NZ milk production
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15