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Biomass based bio-energy Biomass based bio-energy program in Madagascarprogram in Madagascar
Mainstreaming bio ethanol energy generation into environment and other sectors
Bienvenu RAJAONSON
Senior Environmental Specialist
WORLD BANKNovember 27 , 2010
Presentation overviewPresentation overview
Background Key concept of the project
◦ Links to poverty and natural resources Overall constraints Institutional framework Key baselines Biomass program (ethanol)
◦ Components◦ Value chain analysis
Where we stand? Per component Projections, environmental and poverty reduction
expected impacts Conclusions
BackgroundBackground
Madagascar is one of the poorest countries worldwide,
Madagascar is one of the Hotspot countries in terms of biodiversity
Madagascar is one of the most exposed countries worldwide in terms of natural disaster
These issues pose problems for economic stability.
We started this bio ethanol program in 2001
The key concept which drives the projectLinks to poverty and natural resources use
Poverty rate
NR Exploitation
How to reverse the trend for the benefit of How to reverse the trend for the benefit of the growth?the growth?
The following three models are appropriate
Model 1: development for conservationModel 2: Conservation for developmentModel 3: Merging the two
BECAUSEPrevention measures are more important than cure approach
Overall constraintsOverall constraintsSpeed of degradation, Cost of recovery, Time to substitute the expected
loss is challenging as change of social patterns has to be considered and takes time,
Institutional framework often doesn’t exist and
Scale up is a big challenge
Institutional frameworkInstitutional framework
• Sectoral Policies exist• Administration capacity weak • Coordination among project not
enough • Decentralization of NR
management is not fully effective • Legislation exist but law
enforcement is lacking• Natural resources governance
weak
Some Key baselinesSome Key baselines
Vulnerability of coral reefs
Sources : BD500/FTMEdition : UCDD / DIE / ONE - Février 2005
CARTE DES RECIFS
Récifs
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
TOLIARA
MAHAJANGA
TOAMASINA
ANTSIRANANA
FIANARANTSOA
ANTANANARIVO
N
EW
S
Limite de la Province#Y Chef Lieu de Faritany
100 0 100 Kilomètres
•Over 2000 km reefs for 5,000 km coasts
•Pressures: anthropic activity ( fishery; taking materials; sedimentation );
•Absence of functional cartography
•A monitoring program for reefs is in place ( regional context)
I. Context
Vulnerability of mangrove areasCARTE DES MANGROVES
Source : BD500/FTM - IEFN/DGEF 1996Edition : UCDD / DIE / ONE - Février 2005
Mangroves
100 0 100 Kilometers
LEGENDE
N
EW
S
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
TOLIARA
MAHAJANGA
TOAMASINA
ANTSIRANANA
FIANARANTSOA
ANTANANARIVO
Limite de la Province#Y Chef lieu de Faritany
I. Context
•Current total area :
404,000 ha ( CI. 2001)
•Degradation is 6% per year
•Pressures are due to wood exploitation and to concentrated activities : salt production; aquaculture; tourism…
Vegetation fire MAP
Edition: UCDD/DIE/ONE, Novembre 2004Source: DGEF, BD 500 FTM, USGS, PACT Madagascar, Novembre 2004
COEFFICIENT D'ACTIVITES DE FEUX DE NUIT MADAGASCAR 2003
CAFN 2003FaibleMoyenImportant
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y#Y
#Y
#Y#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
Antsiranana
Mahajanga
Antsohihy
Sambava
Maevatanana
MaintiranoAmbatondrazaka
Fenoarivo Atsinanana
Toamasina
Morondava
TsiroanomandidyMiarinarivo
Antananarivo
Ihosy
Fianarantsoa
Ambovombe
Tolagnaro (Fort-Dauphin)
Toliara
Farafangana
Manakara
Ambositra
Antsirabe
100 0 100 200 Kilometres
N
EW
S
Limite des régions#Y Chef lieu de région
The country is devastated by fires, at least one third per year ( 1/3);
Vulnerability of soilsVulnerability of soils::
--70% of territory is made up of relief -200 T/ha/year is the average erosion rate- Degradation costs about US$ 150 to 300 million (WB review 1988 ).).
I. Context
Socioeconomic Vulnerability
74 - 10054 - 7335 - 5317 - 340 - 16
Indice de pauvreté
Edition: UCDD/DIE/ONE, Mars 2005Source: Enquête Ilo 2001, BD 500 FTM,
INDICE DE PAUVRETE MADAGASCAR 2001
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y#Y
#Y
#Y#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
#Y
Antsiranana
Mahajanga
Antsohihy
Sambava
Maevatanana
MaintiranoAmbatondrazaka
Fenoarivo Atsinanana
Toamasina
Morondava
TsiroanomandidyMiarinarivo
Antananarivo
Ihosy
Fianarantsoa
Ambovombe
Tolagnaro (Fort-Dauphin)
Toliara
Farafangana
Manakara
Ambositra
Antsirabe
N
EW
S
100 0 100 200 Kilometres
Limite des régions#Y Chef lieu de région
•Poverty affects 74% of population with a daily income of $ 0,42 ( 2001)
•MAP objective is to reduce poverty rate by 50% in 2015
•CAS recommends promoting policies favorable to income increase among poor people in the concentration sector, which will also express in GDP increase ( Pro-poor Policy )
Modelling Climate Change Impacts in Volta Basin 25Modelling Climate Change Impacts in Volta Basin 25thth April, 2007 April, 2007Direction Générale de la Météorologie
Tendance des Températures MAX à Madagascar
26,5
27,0
27,5
28,0
28,5
29,0
29,5
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Année
Te
mp
éra
ture
s (°
C)
Temperature increases to 0.5 degree in 22 meteorological stations out of 27 over 40 years
Climate ChangeClimate Change
Energy Source: 80% from woodEnergy Source: 80% from wood
Fuel wood
Other sources
Energy Consumption: 95% of population Energy Consumption: 95% of population use wood as cooking fueluse wood as cooking fuel
Fuel wood or mixed
Gas-electricity
Proposed solution: substitution of Proposed solution: substitution of biomass source with sugar cane biomass source with sugar cane
Existing plantation, related to cultural tradition
Easy to grow, fast growing and alcohol processing is existing nationwide
Space to grow exist and forest areas to conserve are critical
Resistant to cyclone
Sugar cane commodities chartSugar cane commodities chart
It is a market based program with:◦1 million ha plantation to be developed
with landscape consideration◦1 billion liters p.a. of cooking ethanol◦Plus carbon offset market ◦And biomass waste conversion
activities
Bio ethanol program
Household cooking fuel/ stove
Fuel ethanolGeneration of electricity from
biomass
S&M éthanol processing plant unit : $20- $5,000
Industrial Unit
Sugar cane juice
Any local alcohol processed
Bagasse
Molasses from processingRough sugar cane
Large scale sugar cane plantation
Ethanol cooking stove modelsEthanol cooking stove models
Three models of ethanol cooking stoves have been tested and potentially available for manufacturing and promotion to local consumers
These models are innovative as using a range of ethanol going from 50% to 90% of alcohol
Where we stand? Per Where we stand? Per componentcomponent
Component 1: Clean cooking fuel aiming at reducing the use of fuel wood and kerosene: studies and testing are completed and implementation of the programme has started such as manufacturing of stoves and setting up of micro distilleries.
Component 2: reducing the use of fossil gasoline: the first ethanol plant has started its construction
Component 3: contributing to electricity generation from biomass: new technologies and implementation plan have been completed
Expected Expected Impact on Forest Impact on Forest management management
Illegal logging
Number of stoves
With respect to greenhouse gas emissions over a period of 15 years the ethanol program will allow to avoid greenhouse gas emissions of 7.5 million tons CO2 equivalent which is more than US$ 27.5 millions based on a market price of US$ 3.5/t of CO2. (WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)
Expected Expected Impact on Protected AreaImpact on Protected Area
0102030405060708090
Case without ethanol stove
Projected case with ethanol
stove
case 1
case 2
Pressure rate
Number of stoves
If 10% of the urban households are using ethanol stoves this would allow substituting a total natural forest area of about 187,424 Ha (over a period of 15 years). (WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)
Expected Expected Impact onImpact onbiomass energy savingbiomass energy saving
0102030405060708090
Case without ethanol stove
Projected case with ethanol
stove
case 1
case 2
Use of fuel wood
Number of stoves
If 10% of the urban households are using ethanol stoves this would allow substituting a total charcoal consumption of about 892,139 tons (over a period of 15 years).(WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)
Impact on household healthImpact on household health
People affected by pulmonary infection
Number of stoves
The development of an ethanol program on 10% of the urban households using ethanol stoves will avoid costs of reduced working capacity and savings on health expenses for about 12 million US$, whereas the introduction of improved charcoal stoves will save approximately 9 million US$.(WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)
Impact on job creationImpact on job creation
Number of stoves
Number of job created
It is expected that the entire value chain will create more than 3 millions jobs within 4 years of implementation mostly in rural area.(WB study 2005)
Impact on new state fiscal itemImpact on new state fiscal item
Number of stoves
Rate of fiscal collection
The State at different level will benefit from this initiative for about 10% of fiscal revenue within the entire value chain .
Scale up approach to poverty reductionScale up approach to poverty reductionSome activities generated by the
entire value chain: Raw material cultivation? Processing ethanol? Packing finished product? Collecting ? Transporting? Whole selling? Retailing activities to consumers? Supply of equipment and various materials?... Set up engineering
Simulation impact by 2015 (MDG)
Poverty reduction simulation WB/Min of Poverty reduction simulation WB/Min of Economy and PlanningEconomy and Planning
(WB toolkit database reference 2008) (WB toolkit database reference 2008)
Base case without the project 2014 Poverty rate is reduced from 70% to 62%
•With the project 2015 MDGPoverty rate is reduced from 70% to 40%
ConclusionsConclusions
Important investment is not necessarily required to reverse the degradation trend of natural resources
Full participation of the majority of the population in poverty reduction activities would significantly slow down pressure on PAs and common public goods.
Scaling up such activities impacts on wealth creation and thus economical growth and would contribute to reach MDG’s goals for the country.
Thank you