Presentation of Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?
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Transcript of Presentation of Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?
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The Key Stage 3 dipMyth or reality?
David PepperQCA International UnitDEPS Visiting Research Fellow 30 September 2008
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Qualifications and Curriculum Authority
QCA in a nutshell
• QCA maintains and develops the national curriculum and associated assessments, tests and examinations in England.
2
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QCA International Unit
Objectives
• Maintain QCA’s international contribution to the generation, transfer and exchange of information in education and training.
• Help QCA to strengthen its understanding of how to equip learners for life in a global society and knowledge economy.
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QCA’s INCA website
INternational review of Curriculum and Assessment frameworks internet archive:
• Curriculum, assessment and initial teacher training
• 20 countries worldwide and growing
• Informing policy and practice since 1996
• A free website for you to use: www.inca.org.uk
• Australia• Canada• England• France• Germany• Hungary• Ireland• Italy• Japan• Korea• Netherlands• New Zealand• Northern
Ireland• Scotland• Singapore• Spain• Sweden• Switzerland• USA • Wales
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MRes dissertation: inspiration
Two INCA reports:
• Learner motivation for 3-19 year olds: an international perspective
• Dips in performance and motivation: a purely English perception?
MRes dissertation:
• From international to national
• From perception to empiricism
• The Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?
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Central terms
• Definition of Key Stage 3 The phase of the statutory National Curriculum in England intended for pupils aged 11 to 14 years old (Years 7, 8 and 9).
• Definition of ‘dip’To undergo a slight decline, especially temporarily; to slope downwards; to lower or be lowered briefly; or, a momentary sinking.
• Usage of Key Stage 3 dipAttainment, attitudes or bothNo change or a reductionYear 7 or 8 but not Year 9.
Focus of dissertation• Dips• Attainment• Year 7 and 8.
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Structure
MRes dissertation:
• Literature review
• Methodology
• Analysis
• Conclusions
After the deadline:
• Dissemination
• Future work
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Literature review
Year 7 (or the year after transfer)
• Several case studies (Galton & Wilcocks, 1983; Pollitt & Taylor, 1999; Suffolk LEA, 2002; Hargreaves & Galton, 2002; Galton, Grey & Rudduck, 2003) and a large-scale survey (Stoll et al, 2003).
• They focus on the issue of transfer and find post-transfer attainment dips/plateaus in both secondary schools and middle schools.
• Post-transfer dips/plateaus in Scotland (Nisbet & Entwhistle, 1969), the USA (Simmons et al, 1987; Crockett et al, 1989; King Rice, 2001) and several countries (Whitby & Lord, 2006): different ages.
• Dips/plateaus occur regardless of timing of transfer: discontinuity is blamed. The management of transfer is the most important factor.
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Literature review
Year 8 (or the 2nd year post-transfer)
• Interviews and questionnaires (Galton et al, 2003; Lord & Jones, 2006; Doddington et al, 1999; Rudduck, 1996; Sharp, 1998).
• The focus is on transitions (rather than transfer per se) and their impact on learner motivation -rather than attainment.
• A few consider Y8 attainment (Suffolk LEA, 2002; Pollitt & Taylor, 1999; NFER, 2005) and find dips/plateaus. Recovery from Y7 in Y8?
• Some countries report a ‘delayed dip’ in the second year post transfer (Whitby & Lord, 2006). England is not alone.
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Literature review
English (all the studies)
• Consistently, about one half of pupils dipped/plateaued in Y7 or the year post-transfer (Stoll et al, 2003 found two thirds in Y7).
• Re-analysis of NFER, 2005 found nearly two thirds of pupils dipped/plateaued in Year 8.
Maths (most of the studies)
• Consistently, about one third of pupils dipped/plateaued in Y7 or the year post-transfer.
• Re-analysis of NFER, 2005 found 58% dipped/plateaued in Year 8.
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Literature review
Pupils at risk?
• Lower attainment or an SEN
• Relative age, maturity, adolescence
• Lower socio-economic status
• Ethnicity
• <English> as an additional language
• No clear pattern for gender
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Methodology
Gaps in the evidence
Several in-depth, small-scale studies:• Focused on detail of transfer• No Year 8 attainment (or no attainment)
Few large surveys:• Ageing data• Not England• Not all three year groups
Fit for purpose but gaps in evidence in relation to KS3 attainment dip.
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Methodology
• Approach: quantitative
• Method: large-scale survey
• Instrument: NC & optional tests in English and mathematics
• MeasureLongitudinal: Y6 in 2002, Y7 in 2003, Y8 in 2004, Y9 in 2005NC Levels (Y6-9) and sub-levels (Y7, Y8)
• Ethical: existing data sets found and access granted
• Sample: upwards of 6000 pupils for most results; 253 schools
• Analytical procedures
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Dips and plateaus in Levels
Dip Pupils (%) dip Y7 Y8 Y9
English 4.7 11 8.7
Maths 2.3 8/3.5* 2.6/3.5*
*Lower tier/higher tier Plateau Pupils (%) plateau Y7 Y8 Y9
English 51.4 41.3 44.6
Maths 29.8 56.3/31.2* 33.3/44.6* *Lower tier/higher tier
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Dips and plateaus in sub-levels (Year 8)
More precision halved the plateaus and doubled the dips.
Dip Pupils (%) Y7/8 sub-levels Y7/8 Levels English 20.5 11 Maths 14.7/5.5 8/3.5*
*Lower tier/higher tier
Plateau Pupils (%) Year 8 Y7/8 Levels English 22.2 41.3 Maths 33.5/31.2 56.3/31.2
*Lower tier/higher tier
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Multiple dips?
Using Levels:
• Less than 1% of all pupils dipped in both Y7 English and Y7 maths
• Less than 1% dipped in Y8 English and Y8 higher tier maths
• 2.5% dipped in Y8 English and Y8 lower tier maths
• Less than 1% dipped in both Y7 and Y8 in English or maths
Pupils tend to dip only once
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Recovery?
Recovery refers to pupils who dipped but then regained some or all of the attainment they lost.
Using levels:
• Those who dipped in Y7 usually recovered in Y8
• Those who dipped in Y8 usually recovered in Y9
• Those who dipped in Y8 had often increased their Level in Y7.
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Which pupils dip?
Analytical method• PLASC variables and middle school variable (all categorical)• Chi Square test (significance) and Cramer’s V (effect size)
Statistical significant but modest effect sizes:• Special educational needs*• Ethnicity (Black and Asian pupils)*• Socio-economic status (Year 8 only)*
Not statistically significant:• Middle schools (but notably lower %)*• Gender (similar % for boys and girls)* • Relative age
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Conclusions
Dip: reality• A minority of pupils dip a Level• These pupils usually dip only once and recover quickly• Sub-levels increased the observed dip in Y8 (Y7? Y9?)• Year 8 more than Year 7* and English more than maths**• Some pupils more vulnerable than others in Y7 and Y8 (Y9?)• Year 9 dip
Plateau: reality• More pupils plateau (a concern?)• More Y7 English than maths*• More Y8 maths than English
Underlying factors?• School transfer• Multiple transitions• Access to resources• Test validity
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Find out more
The Key Stage 3 dip: myth or reality?• 10,000 word dissertation (KCL)• 800 word briefing (QCA, DCSF):
http://www.qca.org.uk/libraryAssets/media/KS3_dip_briefing_DP.pdf
Dips in performance and motivation: a purely English perception?• www.inca.org.uk