Presented by :

Romanov Victor (professor of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Agafonova Yelena (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Sandybaeva Saltanat (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Innovation process

simulation on the base

“Predator and Prey” model

Content

1) Emotion simulation study:

▪ Literature review of an emotional state formal model

2) “Hunger” considered as a feeling:

▪ Hunger in the Feeling and Simulation model

▪ Algorithm of “Satisfying Hunger”

▪ Simulation based on “Predator and Prey” model

Emotion simulation

Nowadays researchers are more and more interested in problems of

modeling emotions and feelings, which became important part of

general models of social and economic processes.

Anger

Happiness

Hunger

Joy

Hope

Fear Sadness

HAPPINESS

An agent is intended to do

anything in order to achieve its

goal. And he also believes, that

happiness comes when all the

subgoals are done.

SADNESS

Sad agent is disappointed by how his plans

regress. He is seeking the way to improve

his affairs and is trying to make his goals

more realistic.

An agent is intended to follow his plan in

order to fulfill the goals. He believes that

first steps in performing his plan will have

certain effect. An agent will get upset if

those first steps fail.

ANGER

In this particular case, agent is angry

when his plan fails. He is trying to make

his plan work, but gets angry when

everything goes wrong.

HOPE

Hope is a state, when agent is

being pleased about the

prospect of a desirable event.

An agent hopes to achieve

some goal using some plan if

and only if it intends to

perform the plan for the goal

and is committed to the plan.

• Belἰφ : agent ἰ believes in φ;

• Goalἰφ: agent ἰ wants φ to be true;

• Xφ : means that φ is true.

•Possἰφ means that agent ἰ thinks that φ is possible.

Joyἰ φ= Belἰ φ ∧ Goalἰ φ

Agent ἰ feels joy if and only if ἰ believes

that φ true and wants φ to be true. JOY

FEAR

An agent fears the failure to achieve

some goal using some plan if and only

if it hopes the plan will achieve the

goal but it believes that it may not.

Fear is a state ,when agent is displeased about

the prospect of an undesirable event.

«Hunger» as a feeling is based on “Predator and prey ” model, which is widely spread in economics

In this model, two participants coexist. The first one is a company-predator, big and successful corporation. It absorbs small businesses in order to improve its economic efficiency. The second participant is equally important. It is just a small business, in particular cases it can be a start-up. Let us consider it as a “prey”. .

The “predator and prey” model interpretation from

economic point of view

Determination of the branch

Step 1

Formation of acquisition company

Step 2

Setting outcomes

of absorption

Step 3 Defining the criteria

of the target company

Step 4

The list of potential prey

companies

Step 5

Assessing the ability of the

preys

Step 6

Completion of a deal

Step 7

Assessment of the results

Step 8

Phases of how “Predator” acquisits “Prey”

0,0, RcRaRFRcRRadt

dR

0,0, FcFaFRFcFFadt

dF

F – the population of foxes at time t

R – the population of rabbits at time t

RF – interaction of rabbits and foxes ,where foxes reduce

the rabbit population

FR – fox population growth due to the destruction of

rabbits

aR – factor determining the rate of population increment

due to breeding rabbits

cR – the intensity of the rabbits destruction by foxes

-aF – the rate of decrease of the population of foxes in the

result of disappearance of rabbits

cF – intensity of foxes growth due to the acquisition

“Predator and Prey” Concept

Our modification of “Predator and prey” model includes a new

operator – taxation of big companies, which lately is given to

start-ups as subsidies.

Taking into account this modification, the equations in our

program look like this :

• If taxes are spent on improving infrastructure:

• If taxes are spent on direct subsidies:

Program results analysis

“Predator and prey ” model

in economics

The program allows you to adjust:

initial population of rabbits and foxes respectively

α, δ fertility rates of rabbits and foxes respectively

γ the mortality rate of foxes

β coefficient of predation

coefficients of intraspecific competition

H happiness multiplier (determines the effectiveness of state aid to start-ups)

τ the proportion of foxes shot

T taxes collected for all periods

D the share of taxes, going to the rabbits aid

L part of the tax that is lost from the treasury (i.e. corruption)

The figure shows that wavelike

population increase and decrease

happen ,as for foxes and rabbits.

Note that in the wake of the way the

rabbit population reaches the

minimum value, the population of

foxes starts to extinct. As a result

rabbits start to breed

The effect of "foxes" taxation and

donating “rabbits” seen in the

gradual increase in the oscillation

amplitude.

The results of the work

The figure shows that the model is very

sensitive to small changes in the

parameters and the system (economy)

in the case of an incorrect adjustment

may lead to stabilization of rabbits at a

low level of foxes (large corporations),

and then to the spikes and the collapse

of both populations (the collapse of the

economy)

The results of the work

This figure shows that there is a mode with very narrow range of parameters, in which a rapid increase in foxes and rabbits population happens

The results of the work

This is the main result of this study and

confirms the hypothesis that the model

of the economy with the taxation of large

corporations and subsidies to small

businesses can be extremely efficient in

terms of innovation.

It should be noted that the deviation from the critical

values of the parameters of taxation may again lead to

economic growth in the presence of oscillatory

processes.

The results of the work

▪ To show the importance of emotions and feelings modeling in a multi-agent system and demonstrate this with the example of hunger model of the "predator-prey"

Conclusion