Raw Materials and (food) security: a need for

information and analysis (intelligence) ?

The Hague, January 2015 Krijn J. Poppe

with thanks to Thom Achterbosch and Koen Boone

Wageningen UR - For the quality of life

Plant Sciences Group

Animal Sciences Group

Agro-technology and Food Sciences Group

Environ-mental

Sciences Group

Social Sciences Group

Wageningen University Department of Social Sciences

Research Institutes (DLO) LEI

Experimental Research and consultancy CDI

National States

Many actors

Coope-

rative

Non

coope-

rative

Multipolair • Power blocks

• Economic and politcal

competition

• Protectionism

Fragmentation •Stagnating globalisation

•Insecure society

•Identity first

Multilateral • Strong west and upcoming BRICs

• Global governance reformed

• Globalisation continues

Network • Non-polair world order

• Global market economy and civil

society

• Unpredictable

Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition

3 © De Ruijter Strategie

Food • Every block (EU. VS, China etc.) handles

scarcity differently

• Management of transitions

• No food scarcity in Europe, water scarcity

in Southern Europe only

• No real change in food system in Europe,

but crises management : active control

policy like food stocks, water buffers for

periods of disruption and drought

• Water transport in Europe from North to

South (depending on costs and benefits)

• European policies are needed, steering

with Common Agricultural Policy – the

return of Mansholt to increase production

to self sufficiency levels

• Consumption of meat will be discouraged

The Global Resource Nexus

Food / Biomass

Land Water

Energy Minerals

Lessons from political science

European thinking is based on multilateralism with global governance systems to facilitate trade, access to resources and spread western values (soft power).

“Emerging markets view access to raw materials as an object of power politics. Europe sees it as trade policy”

“Europe and Japan are in a transition from nation state to market state: in response to globalisation they make the citizen responsible for prosperity (by privatizing)”

“Geo-economics becomes more important as emerging markets see that their prosperity is linked to unhindered access to scarce resources”.

“Mechanisms for conflict resolution should be taken seriously” >> should we develop something on food in The Hague ??

Quotes: Rob de Wijk – Machtspolitiek, 2014

Export Dutch agricultural / food products

6

Neigh-bours: 56 %

EU: 80% € 62,4 mld

Extra-EU: 20% € 16,1 mld

Exports food EU countries (based on value)

7

12,5% NL exports outside EU are inputs:

support local production to reduce tension

Export seeds: € 1,1 billion

intra EU extra EU

Export means of production (machinery etc.): € 3,1 bln.

intra EU extra EU

Glasshouses built outside the EU from Dutch origin

80 %

8

50

%

50

%

55

%

45

Imports

Phosphate (and potassium)

● Dependent on a few sources, mainly Morocco

Protein-rich animal feed (soy beans)

● EU uncompetitive in cost price (but home-grown would not be not a big effect on consumer price ?)

● Meat consumption slows down – a good thing

● In supply disruption the stock is a big buffer

Tropical products, including palm oil and fats

Fish: EU aquaculture is not competitive compared to Asia

Rare metals etc for machinery and ICT: who knows?

If needed, NL could feed itself (autarky), EU too ?

9

Where to go from here

Monitoring

● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data (less true for rare metals etc.)

● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the Sustainability Consortium could be used for monitoring, finding alternatives, promote recirculation

Cooperation and reciprocity in trade

● Support with know how, but keep the lead (with ICT?)

Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of justice - The Hague

11

The Sustainability Consortium

SOURCE: TSC member interviews

• Providing multi-stakeholder input

to ensure industry alignment

• Identifying issues beyond LCAs

• Committing to scientific rigor

• Early access to a vast multi-

stakeholder network

• Collaboration on innovative

sustainability solutions and

consumer engagement

Member testimonials

“By looking at sustainability as a

business opportunity, we are

innovating products now that we

wouldn’t have been otherwise”

“TSC is bringing stakeholders

together in a collaborative fashion

to develop sustainability solutions

for common themes across

product sustainability”

“TSC provides common language

and a uniform approach to

measure sustainability across the

supply chain”

Products

Approach

Network

• Defining clear standards for

environmental and social metrics

• Creating implementable tools

• Reducing cost and complexity of

reporting

Reciprocity as a principle in risk mitigation

Match normative with strategic foreign policy in agrofood

Beyond largest supply at lowest cost (anticipate risk)

Cooperative solutions, mutual long term benefits

Implications

● Sustain NL knowledge & innovation base

● Explore new sourcing opportunities

● Multilateral efforts yet also strategic partnerships

● Dialogue with the agro-food sector on supply risk

A central role for ICT as a tool in a

cooperative solution and reciprocity ?

App store

Services

sensors actuators data sources (‘Internet of Things’)

Local Information systems

Spraying Advisory Services

Meteorological Service

State and Policy Information Service

Consumer Food safety service

E-agriculturist Service for spraying potatoes

Machine Breakdown Service

User’s devices

Other sources

Cloud Information

systems

In conclusion

Food exports are diverse, some big import streams

Monitoring

● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data (less true for rare metals etc.)

● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the Sustainability Consortium could be used for monitoring, finding alternatives, promote recirculation

Cooperation and reciprocity in trade

● Support with know how, but keep the lead (ICT?)

Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of justice - The Hague

14

Thanks for your

attention

krijn.poppe@wur.nl

www.lei.wur.nl

Slides available