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Presentation at

Almaden Institute 2009August 18, 2009

Burton Richter

Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies Senior FellowPaul Pigott Professor in the Physical Sciences Emeritus

Stanford University

Former DirectorSLAC National Accelerator Laboratory

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Outline

Energy Issues

Transportation

Other Storage Issues

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Reference Scenario: Primary Energy Demand by Region

Source OECD-IEA2008

Developing countries become the biggest energy consumers within

a decade

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mtoe

OECD Developing countries Transition economies

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IIASA Projection of Future Energy Demand-Scenario A1 (High Growth)

IIASA projections show that energy demand in the 21st century is dominated by the growth of the developing nations. (Source: International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and World Energy

Council Global Energy Perspectives

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Total Primary Energy Supply by Fuel

Energy Source Percentage ofTPES

Percent of WorldCO2 Emissions

Oil 34 40

Coal 26 40

Natural Gas 21 20

Nuclear Power 6 0

Hydroelectric 2 0

Combustibles 10 0

Other 1 0

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Oil Supply and Cost Curve

Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price

Source: IEA (2005)

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Fraction of Electricity Generation by Fuel 2007

Fuel U.S. WorldCoal 50% 40%

Natural Gas 22% 20%

Oil 0% 6%

Nuclear 20% 16%

Hydroelectric 6% 16%

Biomass 1% 1.3%

Wind 0.6% 0.5%

Geothermal 0.3% 0.3%

Solar 0.1% 0.02%

Source: EIA 2007; IEA World Energy Outlook 2008

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CO2 Emissions per unit Energy from Fossil Fuels

Source Chemical Formula

Combustion Products

Relative GHG Emission per Unit of Energy

Coal C CO2 1

Gasoline C8 H18 8 CO2

+ 9 H2

O 0.75

Natural Gas C H4 CO2

+ 2 H2

O 0.5

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Cutting Oil & Decarbonizing•

Electricity –

Fuel Switching + Efficiency (one GWe-

yr of coal electricity gives 8 million tonnes of CO2

; natural gas gives 1/3 of coal, nuclear, big hydro & Renewables give zero)

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Transportation –

Efficiency + Electrification (50 mpg for gasoline; decarbonized electricity)

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Buildings –

Efficiency (80% of building use is electricity)

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Industry –

Efficiency

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Agriculture –

???? (30% of world and 20% of U.S. emissions from this sector)

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Outline

Energy Issues

Transportation

Other Storage Issues

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PHEV-40 cuts gasoline by 65%

PHEV-100 cuts gasoline by 85%

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Where does the energy go?How energy flows for a vehicle powered by an internal-combustion engine.

The diagram shows the energy uses and losses from a typical vehicle.

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A Rough Guide to ICE vs Electric Drive Today

ICE

Electric DriveWell to Tank 95% Primary to Battery 30%Tank to Wheels 13%

Battery to Wheels 85%

Overall Efficiency 12% Overall Efficiency 25%

Relative emissions per unit primary:Oil = .75Electricity = 0.5x1(coal) + 0.2x0.5(gas) +

0.3x0(nuclear, hydro, etc.) = 0.6Emissions for electric about 40% of ICE

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Moving a Vehicle – Drag & Roll Friction

P= Cd

ρv3A/2 + Cr

Nf

vVehicle Drag Coefficients

Long cylinder 0.82 Typical big truck 0.6Best bus 0.425 Typical SUV or pickup 0.35-0.45

Typical car 0.25-0.35 Mini-Cooper 0.35Tesla 0.35 Ferrari 0.34Chevy Volt 0.30 Toyota Avalon 0.29Prius 0.26 GM EV-1 0.19Nuna

(sunrace

winner)0.07

22Horsepower required at the drive wheels for constant speed driving

(1500 kg vehicle, good tires, good road).

Minimum horsepower required for a Prius-sized car

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Speed

Hor

sepo

wer

Drag HP

Roll Resistence HP

Total HP

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Vehicle Power RequirementsVehicle EV-1 Prius Avalon Expedition Big Truck

Weight (lbs) 2,940 3,040 3,570 5,900 80,000

Cd

A (ft sq2) 3.8 7.3 8.6 17.2 53

Cr 0.007 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Power40 mph

4.4 hp3.3 KW

6.4 hp4.8 KW

7.5 hp5.6 KW

13.8 hp10.3 KW

129

hp96 KW

Power70 mph

14.5 hp10.8 KW

22.6 hp16.8 KW

26.7 hp19.9 KW

51.1 hp38.1 KW

272 hp203 KW

ΔP(KW) 0.03% grade 60mph

10.5 10.8 12.7 21.0 285

<P>(KW) 0-60 mph

80(6 sec)

62(8 sec)

73(8 sec)

120(8 sec)

218(60 sec)

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Some Things to Think About

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Energy storage is important for PHEV, BEV & Fuel Cells.•

100 mile range eliminates 85% of gasoline.

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It takes little power to keep cruising. Even at 70 mph an Avalon (large car) only needs 0.28 KWh per mile.

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The big power hog is acceleration (in trains too).•

Are capacitors better than batteries for surge power?

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Is the efficiency of energy recovery in braking good enough?

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What is beyond Li-Ion? Are we investing enough in electro-chemistry?

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Outline

Energy Issues

Transportation

Other Storage Issues

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Hourly Demand July 24, 2007

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hours of the Day

Dem

and

in M

egaw

att-H

ours

Actual System Load Scheduled Load Hour Ahead Forecast 2-Day Ahead Forecast

Daily Load Shape in California

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Power for all electric fleet is available

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Night demand of about 50% of daytime is typical of the country

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3 trillion light vehicle miles per year at 0.25 KW-hr/mile requires a daily dose of 250 GW of electricity for 8 hours.

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The present system can supply it at night without expansion of capacity or the grid.

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Peak Load vs. Base Load

Peak Load

Base Load

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Solar Electric Output Fraction vs Time-of-Day (California Summer – clear day)

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Solar Thermal Electric

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Barstow Solar 2 Power Tower (photo courtesy of NREL)

3131

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Problems in Greening the Grid

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Solar photovoltaic is not a good match to peak demand•

Solar thermo-electric can peak shift

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Wind is highly variable•

There is no good study of correlations in wind over broad areas

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Back up required for wind is equal to wind maximum generation

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If wind is large component, only effective back up is probably natural gas

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Batteries not good for either application

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Other Possible Apps

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Grid need 1%-2% for smoothing fast fluctuations (zero net). Cars plugged in?

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2%-5% needed for load balancing (10s of minutes) = about 20 GW-h (10 million PHEV40s)

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Accelerating 4000 tons of freight to 100 mph needs 1000 KW-h and 6 MW to do it in 10 minutes

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Backup Slides

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How Long Will Oil Last?

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Int’l energy Agency projects oil demand increases at 1.6%/year in normal circumstances

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We will run through 4.5 trillion barrels by 2075

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There may be more, but it will be expensive

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The greenhouse gas and national security stars are aligned toward a switch from oil for transport

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ENERGY = POPULATION× (GDP/POPULATION)

× (ENERGY/GDP)

EMISSIONS = POPULATION× (GDP/POPULATION)

× (ENERGY/GDP)× (EMISSIONS/ENERGY)

Energy Intensity & Emissions Intensity

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Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2007 DOE-EIA

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Prius TableSpeed (MPH) Drag HP Roll

Resistance HP Total HP

0 0 0 0

10 0.05 0.81 0.86

20 0.40 1.62 2.02

30 1.33 2.43 3.76

40 3.16 3.24 6.40

50 6.18 4.05 10.23

60 10.68 4.87 15.55

70 16.95 5.62 22.57

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Region or Country Population (millions)

CO2 Emissions (million tonnes)

GDP (PPP) billion (2000$)

GDP (PPP) per capita

World 6432 27136 54618 8492

United States 297 5817 10996 37063

PRC 1305 5060 7842 6012

EU 492 4275 11608 23605

Russia 143 1544 1381 9648

Japan 128 1214 3474 27190

India 1095 1147 3362 3072

Korea 48 449 958 19837

South Africa 47 330 463 9884

Brazil 186 329 1393 7475

Saudi Arabia 23 320 323 13977

Top 10 Greenhouse Gas Emitters