Predavanja Dr. Slaus 2008 (1)
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TEMELJNE KARAKTERISTIKE ZNANOSTI
1) Objektivnost
Znanost je ono to se moeeksperimentom oboriti.
Karl Popper
Znanost je odraz, objanjenje prirodei drutva. Zakljuak do kojeg je doao
istraiva X mora biti potvren od svakogistraivaa Y kada je izvren u istim uvjetima.
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to ako nije mogue ponoviti pokus?
Na dubljoj razini (kvantna fizika) svakomjerenje utjee na opaani objektmijenja ga todovodi u pitanje ponavljanje u istim uvjetima.
Ako vrijedi Popperova definicija onda povijestnije znanost, ali da li je teorija evolucije, da li je
kozmologija?
Naravno da u Popperovom smislu matematika
nije znanost, kao ni logika.
Znanost, Science , Philosophia naturalis,
ali social science, political science.
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ovjek i znanost.
Znatielja ---- Igra
Istraivanje poticano znatieljom(curiosity driven research).
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2) Kumulativnost
na ramenima divova (Isaac Newton) i patuljaka
razlika izmeu umjetnosti i znanosti:
Slap -Dobria Cesari
Tee i tee, tee jedan slap;to u njem znai moja mala kap?
Gle jedna duga u vodi se stvara,I sja i dre u hiljadu ara.Taj san u slapu da bi mogo sjati,
I moja kap pomae ga tkati.
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Doprinos neukih i uskih specijalista
(Jose Ortega y Gasset)
Velike grupe istraivaa, preko 100 koautora,samo nekolicina moe prezentirati rad iji su autori
industrija proizvodnje znanja.
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3)Univerzalnost
Zakoni fizike vrijede u itavom svemiru i od poetka svemira.(Diracova pretpostavka da objasni omjer jakosti elektrine sile i sile
gravitacije koji je upravo jednak starosti svemira: 13.7 0.3milijardi godina - izraenoj u prirodnim jedinicama (vrijeme preletasvjetlosti preko atomske jezgre):
3x10-15 m/ 3x108 ms-1 = 10-23s)mijenjanjem jedne od temeljnih fizikih konstanti utvreno je danije ispravna. konstante su vremenski konstante tijekom trajanjanaeg svemira.)
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Zato konstante imaju upravo ovevrijednosti??
Da li u nekom drugom svemiru vrijede
neki drugi zakoni?
Zakoni biologije: mogu je ivotkoji se ne bi temeljio na ugljiku, nego na siliciju.
Drave imaju razliite pojedine zakone.Povezanost zakona s kulturom. Ima oko 5000
razliitih kultura.
Da li postoji jedna civilizacija?
Usaglaavanje zakonodavstava u EU.
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4) Internacionalnost
U svojoj monumentalnoj povijesti znanosti G. Sarton je
ustvrdio da su sve kulture, sve nacije doprinijele razvoju znanosti.
Slino tvrde svi suvremeni povjesniari znanosti: npr: J. Bernal, J.
Needham i Derek de Sola Price.
Uloga migracije znanstvenika u povijesti znanosti braindrain, npr. odlazak progonjenih Nestorijanaca u ranom Srednjem
vijeku, slino pripadnici raznih kranskih sekti/ heretici,upoznavanje Europe sa znanstvenim dostignuima ArapaKriarskiratovi, migracije uzrokovane vjerskim ratovima u 16 i 17 stoljeu uEuropi, odlazak znanstvenika iz Europe za vrijeme Hitlera.
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Achievements and successProgress in science and novel understanding, e.g.:
quantum physics; theory of relativity: special andgeneral; Standard model and its limitations: WMAP:only 4% of ordinary matter, 23% dark matter (?),73% dark energy (?), age of our universe =13.7 0.3
Gyear. Paradigmatic change!nanosciences and their relevance in many areas;DNA; advent of genetic engineering; advances in lifesciences; brain researchadvances in chemistry and geosciences;
advances in psychology and social sciencesConsilienceadvances in all sci disciplines,
interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity.
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Advances in technology, e.g.:
Information-communication technology(ICT); advances in life science technologies:CT, PET, MRI, synthetic biology.New scientific disciplines, e.g. nuclear
medicine, bioarchaelogy, scientometrics.Our understanding and construction ofinstruments, and development of novelinstitutions, e.g.
LHC; Planck satellite;CERN; EMBO
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Consequences
rapid chages, (change) < (humanlifespan), and much faster than ever
globalization interconnectedness of the world
much longer life expectancy and longerhealthy active life duration (thruout theworld) demographic transition
increased quality of life (thruout the world)increased freedom in the world (are our
measurement reliable?)
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The contemporary world:
globalization science generatedTh. Friedman: 3 phases of globalization: 1) driven by states,
2) by states and MNC and 3) by and empowering individuals rapid changesscience generated
( we would be amoebas if there were no change) characterized by uncertainties and instabilities
number of Earths required to provide resources used byhumanity and to absorb their emissions for each year:1970 1980 2005 2007 Goal: 2050
0.86 1.00 1.25 1.27 1.00 (???)
ENVIRONMENT - ENERGY - FOOD - WATER
World is dangerously in a state of overshoot.
Increasing dissatisfaction of the public with governance
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People are the real wealth of nations. Thebasic aim of development is to enlargehuman freedom and choices so that peoplelive full and creative lives. This must benefiteverybody equitably.The State of Human Development, Human developmentindicators, 2004, p.127, UNDP
We add: people - healthy, educated, activeand happy, living in a society of socialjustice and social cohesion in a healthy
environment assuring sustainabledevelopment. Not less - not more.
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Bolonjski proces = vraanje korijenima
razvoja znanosti i obrazovanja.
Sutina Bolonjskog procesa:
- osigurati temeljno fundamentalno obrazovanje koje
omoguava u svakom trenutku dalnju izobrazbu. (vanostmatematike, ICT pismenosti, stranih jezika i
logike);
- omoguiti to ranije zaposlenje obrazovanih strunjaka-osposobiti osobu za sudjelovanje u procesu izrade strategija
i donoenja odluka (policy making, decision making).(iroko obrazovanje, npr. fiziar mora znati pravo iekonomiju, ali i obrnuto).
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Znanstvenici komuniciraju i za vrijeme sukobanjihovih drava:npr. Davy je iao u Francusku;
Hladni rat - Pugwash.
Znanstvena istraivanja ukljuuju znanstvenike
iz mnogo zemalja, koji se nekada i rijetko susreu.
To je potaklo razvitak interneta i razvitak www uCERNu.
Postotak znanstvenih radova s koautorimaiz vie nego jedne zemlje naroito je visok meuradovima koji imaju visoki utjecaj.
Z t di i li t d j
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Znanstvene discipline, grane, znanstvena podruja
Jedinstvo znanosti(consilienceskoiti zajedno plima die sve lae)
Jedinstvo znanja
ZNANJE:
Cjelokupna postojea znanost i tehnologija (tehnika)Istraivanje i razvojResearch and (Technological) Development
tekua i planirana istraivanjastruktura istraivako-razvojne djelatnosti (I+R):organizacijapolitika I+R djelatnosti, donoenje odluka,planiranje I+R djelatnosti,
mogu li se i kako definirati prioriteti- sustav vrednovanja
i sustav vrijednosti.
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Obrazovanjecjeloivotno, sveobuhvatno i za sve ljude
Kultura
Znanost generira brze promjene i
globalizaciju.
Istraivanje je u naim genima. Onda, da lije globalizacija pred-programirana?
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Organizacija I+R djelatnosti
Univerziteti i obrazovne institucije
Istraivake institucije:i) mono-, multi i inter- disciplinarne institucije voene
znatieljom,
ii) istraivanje odreeno ciljem (mission oriented)
Razvojno-istraivake institucije(uglavnom u gospodarstvu)
Sredita za izradu strategija(Think tank, Think and Do Tanks)
Mree (Networks)
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Politika I+R djelatnosti
Znanstvena politika
StrunjaciJavnost Politiari
(kratkovidnost strunjaka nae ponaanje kada idemo lijenikurazliiti sustav vrijednosti stranake politike nezainteresiranost
i strah od znanja.
Najvei napredak ostvaren je u znanosti.Najuspjenijadjelatnost ovjeka jeznanost.
Interakcija, isprepletenost znanja i politike
Planiranje I+R djelatnosti
M.Polanyi - J. Bernal polemika o mogunosti planiranje znanosti
i odreivanju prioriteta.
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SUSTAV VRIJEDNOSTI
ideje (IDEAS) (selekcija dobrih ideja i proces u kojem i loe idejeimaju svoju vrijednost i uzrokuju daleko manju tetu nego npr.ideologije)znatielja i igra
izgradnja kapaciteta (CAPACITY BUILDING) ulogaizgradnji ureaja, mjernih metoda, procesa; organizacija
inkrementalnih istraivanjaistina (? znanost nije dogma. Nema kraja znanosti. Kumulativnost
i objektivnost)
rjeavanje problema (problemi nastaju i rjeavani su u
kompleksnom prostoru, a znanost ima odreeno podruje)od ovjeka i drutva, za ovjeka i drutvo socijalna isocijetalna dimenzija I+R djelatnosti
LJUDI, SURADNJA PEOPLE - COOPERATION
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EUROPE OF KNOWLEDGE
The knowledge base is Europes richest resource
Lisbon and Barcelona objective: 3% of GDP:
R&D expenditure 06-04-05: proposal for the 7th Framework
Programme: Building the Europe of Knowledge.
ALLEA: Investing in Knowledge in Europe
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Basic or applied?
Distinction is less clear-cut than is often suggested; newterm: frontier research
Difference in orientation: science generated and conclusion
oriented versus problem induced and solution oriented Free science driven research: intrinsic relevance:augmentation of knowledge
But also essential for the stimulation of economic growthand social welfare (instrumental relevance); Maxwell,
polymer chemistry, physiological research, transistor,WWW
Fundamental research unpredictable and risky (??) Applied and instrumental research indispensible as well
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European Research Council
Independent body run by scientists, intended to fundresearch proposals on the sole criterion of scientificexcellence
Should be modelled on the principles of self-governance(cf National Research Councils) Budget of the order of the larger national research councils
(between 1.5 and 2 B. per annum) Frontier research as supported by ERC should not be used
for solidarity purposes. Specific measures needed (use ofsolidarity instruments and structural funds) to ensure thatthe economically less advanced countries will in duecourse draw level with the rest of Europe
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Transmodern Business
Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN
Danger
Industrial leftovers who havenot grasped the changeAgrarian
premodern
Agrarianleftovers
Culturalcreatives
IndustrialMODERN
Sept. 11,
2001?
New Women-MenPartnership Society
End ofPatriarchal Society
Transmodern Business
Knowledge SocietyTRANSMODERN
Danger
Industrial leftovers who havenot grasped the changeAgrarian
premodern
Agrarianleftovers
Culturalcreatives
IndustrialMODERN
Sept. 11,
2001?
New Women-MenPartnership Society
End ofPatriarchal Society
Transition to Transmodern
Death ?
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THE END OF INDUSTRIAL
WORK In 1900, in Europe, 87% were working in
agriculture
In 2005, 4% still work in agriculture, andtheir output is + 400% 1970-2000, in USA, the number of factory
workers (industrial) has declined from 33%to 17%.
In 2010, US industrial work = 12%.
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THE END OF INDUSTRIAL
WORK II In Europe the data are similar: Factories are
replacing manpower with machines.
Example: Sugar factory near Brussels, from5000 workers to 5 + robots
The same trend is everywhere.
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END OF INDUSTRIAL WORK II
But also in China, 1995-2002: 15% of allfactory work places have been eliminated,
in 7 years! In 2020, worldwide less than 2% of the
entire workforce will still be engaged in
factory work, in 2020. (J. Rifkin) It is the end of the industrial work.
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OTHER POLITICAL
ARGUMENTS US: Robert REICH US Sec. of Labor and
Laura dAndrea Tyson, US National
Economic Council BOTH have promised that US will create
jobs for all in the knowledge society.
RIFKIN thinks this is false. New Knowledge Jobs YES but for an elite.
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HUMANS = ASSET = CAPITAL
In Industrial management, Humans=cost In Knowledge society: Humans = asset
Management shifts 180 towards humancenteredness
More creativity - centred,
More gender - centredMore culture - centredMore inclusive and social
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A NEW DEBATE
If Human capital becomes crucial
If the post industrial logic is INCLUSIVE
If including immigrants could be increasingthe Human capital and creativity of the
business
If social action become a very importantintangible asset for the Business
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NEW DEBATE ON ACTIVITY
If those trends are confirmed, The debate could completely RENEWED
Other form of activity ? in networks, at home? Other type of activities ?
like cleaning the environment
Like social healing activities Other forms of remuneration ?
Alternative currencies?
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MAIN OBSTACLE :
UNDERSTANDING the SHIFT The main obstacle is that governments and
economists continue to reflect in the old
categories Citizens are not told about the huge
transformation going on.
Although they perceive it subconsciously They Know
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Intangible assets ?
Intangibles assets = Know how,
Reputation, Trust in the company,
Relations with personnel,
Relations with clients,
Relations with stakeholders, Relations with neighbourhood +nature
Relations with civil society
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Measuring intangible assets?
Stock exchange measurements are still looking atfinancial tangible assets (quantitative) but theyincreasingly look at intangible assets(qualitative).
Today a company is measured more and more byits intangible assets.
Example: Mens Wear USA. & World BusinessAcademy, Spirit in Business.
See also Neskey: www.neskey.com
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Two EU strategies
for the Knowledge society Strategy 1 (S1): Knowledge society
This is a post industrial and post capitalist
society (Peter Drucker), because the tool ofproduction has changed.
Strategy2 (S2): Information society Thisis still an industrial society with moreservices + more ICT (information andcommunication technol.)
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LISBON I strategy was S1
Lisbon strategy at the beginning was S1 Knowledge approach . It presupposed a
post-industrial approach. It has failed because nobody explained the
post-industrial thing!!
And thus we have used a new approach anda new tool with old concepts, oldmanagement, and an old vision. Failure.
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Books
Peter DRUCKER: Post capitalist society, HarperBusiness, New York, 1993.
Verna ALLEE: The future of knowledge ElsevierScience, 2003, USA.
Jeremy RIFKIN: The European Dream: when Europesvision of the future is silently eclipsing the Americandream Penguin 2004.
Ray ANDERSON: Mid Course correction 1998.www.chelseagreen.com (Interface)
World Business Academy: www.worldbusiness.org Spirit in Business: www.spiritinbusiness.org Neskey on intangible measurements : www.neskey.com
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Rodrigo Rato: Greatest threats we face today are:
1) financial instability economic crisis ?
2) demographic transition to 10 G and then to 2 G ?3) climate change (Weather of Mass Destruction)(Annual conf. The Club if Rome, Madrid 2007)
Ratos dangers and threats are recent, andmany new threats will appear.
Add terrorism + organized crime + rogue
and failed-states + totalitarian regimes. But, many new opportunities andoptions will appear.
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Prepare for threats!Some threats/events are highly unlikely, but can
have profound effects Black Swan (N.N. Taleb) 3rd generation warfare think the unthinkable
In a global world - problems and threatscannot be contained, they affect the entire world
Present world is not fully global it is not
global when it has to react, and when it has toanticipate, stimulate and generate desirable
changes. Then becomes fragmented.
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CONSEQUENCES
PROBABILITY
MAJOR THREATS TO HUMANKIND
GL
OB
ALI Z
AT
ION
MAD
WMD
withterr
or.
clima
te
cha
nge
DESTRUCTION
OF CIVILIZATION
100 %
-
_
NATURAL
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CONSEQUENCES
PROBABILITY
G
LOBALIZATION
MAD
WMD
withterr
orism
xen
o
bio
cult
ure
localwar
clim
ate
chang
e
health
inadequategovernance
poverty
po
lluti
on
DESTRUCTION
OF CIVILIZATION
100 %
-
_
NATURAL
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Most of the problems and threats we are currentlyfacing cannot be approached much less solved by military
means.
Is military deterrence useful at all? It resulted in:
mutually assured destruction - MAD (nuclear arsenals100 x > required for any deterrent purpose).
(No evidence that MAD worked as a stabilizing force (G. Prins).
He claims that the threat of using nuclear weapons worked in one
case only: it forced the USA to provide Israel with spare partsduring the war, when Israel threatened to use his nuclear force to
prevent defeat.)
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Global peace index uses 24 different indicators, covers
140 states (Univ of Sydney + Economist Intelligence Unit
with support of J. Carter, D. Tutu, Mary Robinson):
Top: Iceland, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Japan,
Ireland (1.1761.410). Bottom: Iraq #140 (3.514)NW states:
France #36 (1.71) behind e.g. Slovenia #16 (1.49) and justahead of Vietnam #37 (1.72)
UK #49 (1.80), while Croatia #60 (1.93), B&H #66 (1.97)
USA #97(2.23) behind Syria #75(2.0), Serbia #85(2.1)
Iran #105(2.3), India #107 (2.36), Pakistan #127 (2.7),Russia #131 (2.8), N.Korea #133 (2.9), Israel #136 (3.0)
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The contemporary world is:very complex,
interconnected and interdependent,
rapid nonlinear changes in many features,characterized by uncertainties and instabilities.
We are influencing environment and our own evolution:Human species is now responsible for the evolution of all life on Earth.
(J. Huxley, Nobel laureate, first director general of UNESCO)Man is an architect of himself. (Pietro della Mirandola)
Our civilization is becoming the first global civilization. Globalizationrepresents shrinking in space and in time, where changes in a small
subsystem cause effects in large and remote systems.
Globalization and rapid changes are both science-generated.
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END OF SCIENCE ??
U N I V E R S E
Atoms 4 %Dark matter 23 %Dark energy 73 %
WHY DOES UNIVERSE EXIST AT ALL ?FINE TUNNING: - basic constants (c, h, G, e.....)
- forces, energies
DID GOD HAVE ANY CHOICE IN CREATING THEWORLD ?
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(instrument/
structure building)
(inkremental research)
(curiosity driven research)
yx
z
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1515
frontier research
(instrument/
structure building)
(inkremental research)
(curiosity driven research)
yx
z
15
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1515
frontier research
20
breakthru (new literacy)
5
25
(instrument/
structure building)
(inkremental research)
(curiosity driven research)
yx
z
10
15
K-intensive
innovative G
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The income gap between the fifth of the worlds people living in therichest countries and the fifth in the poorest countries
increased from 30:1 in 1960
to 60:1 in 1990and to 74:1 in 1997
The assets of the top four world billionaires surpass the combined GDP ofall least developing countries and their 600 million people.
Undernourishment in the industrial world averages less than 2.5%; itreaches over 40% in Central, East and South Africa.
Global pharmaceutical sales and disease burden are unevenly distributed:Europe and Middle East represent 15.4% of the share of total
pharmaceutical sales in 2002 and have 19.4% of the share of total disease
burden,
- The Americas: 76.3% and 9.8%, respectively- for Africa shares in sales is barely 0.3%
and in diseases 24.3%,- Asia-Pacific 5.7% and 46.4%, respectively.
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Failures and problems characterizing the 20.c.
Use of war, military and violence.During 20.c. 400 million men, women and children killed
by
their own governments, more than during wars
(Rummel).
States do not seem to be capable of protecting their owncitizens, nor assuring them their basic human needs.
Failure of governancemission impossible?About 200 nation(so caled)-states + 600,000 TNC
(with wealth often larger than some medium nation-states) + 50,000 international civil society
organizations + 5,000-10,000 different cultures
(languages - 90% with less than 10,000 persons).
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Old tools from old box still used, e.g. balance of power,deterence, enemies and friends concept.
Clash of civilizations (of cultures??)
New enemies and new problems: terrorism. Decrease in social capital.
Social cohesion:Inequality compatible with the axiompeople are the wealth of nationsPlato: common good ratio rich : poor = 5:1,
J.P. Morgan: bosses should have not more than 20 times
the salary of their workers.Global Inequalities Fades as Global Economy Grows ?!
Xavier Sala-i-Martin 2002
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R.F. Kennedy We will find neither national purpose norpersonal satisfaction in an endless amassing if worldly
goods. We cannot measure national achievements byGDP, since GDP includes air pollution, cigarette
advertisement and ambulances to clear our highways
after carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and
jails for people who break them. GDP includesdestruction of redwoods and of Lake Superior. GDP
grows with the production of napalm and nuclear
warheads. It does not include the health of our families,
the quality of their education, it is indifferent to the safetyof our streets... In short, GDP measures everything except
what makes life worthwhile.
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20.c is a measured century.
Feasibility, Reliability and Uncertainty
Robustness INDICATORS Input / Output
(GDP, HDI ) quantitative qualitative (case studies)
Inadequacies of GDP HDI, ISEW, GPI,...?
USA 1950 1970 1990 2000
GDP/c 11,672 18,773 28,434 36,595
GPI/c 8,611 13,034 14,893 15,035
Beyond GDP - EU and CoR, Nov 2007
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1960-62 2000-02
GDP per capita in the poorest and the richest
countries
20 poorest countries 20 richest countries
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Significant successes have been achieved:
- the end of the Cold War,- spread of democracy,
-apparent robustness of the cultural diversity and
-some improvements in the quality of life.
The world average calorie per day per capita hasincreased from 2250 Kcal in 1960 to 2750 Kcal in
1997 and for developing world from
2100 Kcal to 2680 Kcal(FAOSTAT 2000).
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1.1. Progress and Public opinion
Enormous progress has been achieved:
- in 1893 only New Zealand could be considered a
true democracy,- in 1972 there were 43 free, 38 partly free and 69 notfree countries,
- in 2002 there were 89 free countries, 56 partly freeand 47 not free.
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Survey Free Partly free Not free World
Year Popul. in
billions
No of
Countr.
Popul. in
billions
No of
Countr.
Popul. in
billions
No of
Countr.
Popul. in
billions
No of Countr.
1981 1.61 (36%) 0.97 (22%) 1.91(42%) 4.49
1991 2.09 (39%) 76 1.49 (28%) 65 1.75
(33%)
42 5.33 183
2002 2.50 (41%) 85 1.46 (24%) 59 2.17
(35%)
48 6.13 192
FREEDOM IN THE WORLD
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However, citizens are not satisfied with their politicalsystems. Gallup International's 2002 Voice of the Peoplesurvey of 36,000 citizens across 47 countries on six
continents provided therefore, results statisticallyrepresentative of the views of 1.4 billion citizens.
Only 7% of the respondents strongly agree with the statement thatthe world is going in the right direction, and additional 23%
somewhat agree with that statement, a mere 30% to be comparedwith 36% in the year 2001.
61% of the respondents say that globalization has a positive effect
onthem and on their families and that percentage increased from 2001
when it has been 55%.
Fi 4 T t i I tit ti t O t i S i t ' B t I t t
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Fig 4 Trust in Institutions to Operate in Society's Best Interest
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Armed Forces
NGO's
Education System
UN
Religious Institutions
Police
Health System
WTO
Government
Press/Media
Trade Unions/labour
WB
Legal System
IMF
Global Companies
Large nat. companies
Parliament/CongressA lot/Some trust
Little/No trust
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Public confidence in leadership of selected
institutions:1973-98
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
Medicine Sci.Commun. Education Supreme court
TV Press Organized labor Average
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Country Governed by the Will of the People?
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Total Sample
Mid East
Latin America
Asia/Pacific
E & C Europe
Africa
European Union
North America
Non-EU Europe
Yes
No
3 Gl b l ld
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1.3. Global world
Our civilization is becoming the first global civilization.
Globalization represents shrinking in space and in time, wherechanges in a small subsystem through nonlinear processes cause
effects in large and remote systems making our world a singleorganism.
As never before, the future of each one of us depends on the good of all.(Nobel laureates 2000)
Our safety, our prosperity, indeed our freedom are indivisible.(Kofi Annan, 2005)
Globalization happens in all dimensions: political, economic, social,cultural and biological with both positive and negative consequences.
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1905- Annus mirabilis:
Photoelectric effect - Nobel PrizeBrownian motion PhD
Special theory of relativity and E = m c2
Many applications:
How useful is useless
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GLOBAL WARMING
Relatively small increase in temperature could lead to meltingof polar icebergs changing the salinity of Northern Sea and
modifying the course of the Gulf Stream - drastically changingthe climate in Western Europe.
If we postpone considering global warming until itbecomescertain, then it is already too late to do anything - totally novel
situation.
Old political mechanisms are not only useless butcounterproductive.
Global climate change has been calledweather of mass destructionWMD.
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Development measured by human development index (HDI)
is related with energy consumption:
HDI increases rapidly with energy consumption until thisconsumption reaches about 3 tons of oil equivalent per capita
per year (toe/ (capita year)). Above that level there isno correlation between HDI and energy.
If all countries would achieve the consumption of 3 tonstoe/ (capita year) and if the world population would be
constant, then by 2030 the energy consumption would be doubled.If world population would increase, as expected,
to 8.1 billion, energy consumption would
increase by a factor of 2.6.
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Precise measurements of worlds ocean temperatures over
40 years showed that the upper layer of the sea is warmerand that warming is anthropogenic, i.e. to increases in
greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions.
Global warming will have serious consequencesfor 40 poor countries with a population of about 2 billions,since it will reduce the area of land available for farming.
FAO emphasized that global warming will lead tointensification of animal disease and plant pests.
The consequences are:
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- increased energy in weather systems with the redistributionof patterns of rainfall and desertification,
- rise in sea temperature causing sea level rise and decreasingthe oceanic capacity of carbon-dioxide absorption triggering
a positive feed-back in a global warming process,
-accelerating melting of glaciers lowering ocean salinity,reducing the reflection of sunlight and so triggering another
positive feed-back,
- thawing of tundra permafrost releases significant amountof methane - even more powerful GHG than carbondioxide - making this a third positive feed-back loop,
- as water surface temperature increases the abilityof planktons to absorb CO2 is reduced,
-as temperature and carbon-dioxide concentration levelspass a critical threshold, land-based bio-systems switch
from being a net carbon-dioxide sink to a net source.
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There is a critical point at which the feed-back
loops become dominant and render further increase intemperature independent of any reduction in
human-generated GHG.It is essential that this threshold should not be crossed.
From this case we ought to learn a general lesson:if we consider time dependence of any input to the
development, it is necessary to search for alternative
and different inputs as soon as we approachthe inflection point anddefinitely much earlier than
we reach a maximum.
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2. KNOWLEDGE AND CULTURES
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A political power shift: from political powerdominated by military, and then by military and wealth
and then more and more depending on knowledge,it is now dominated by knowledge (A. Toffler).
Therefore, the political strategy should beto increase knowledge.
A term triple helix - signifying society, scienceand economy intertwining - has been introduced.
Knowledge society is a new paradigm intertwiningknowledge with decision- and policy-making,
politics and governance.
Knowledge is the tool in addressing problems,
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Knowledge is the tool in addressing problems,dangers and threats. It is the approach for realizing
the opportunities we are being offered.
Knowledge is science and technology, ongoing andplanned research and technological development,
and education.
Knowledge includes language, literature and art.
An important caveat is required.While R&D, science and technology
are global and can be standardized, thesum of them all - knowledge is understood andcontextualized within a specific cultural system.
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Contemporary science shows similarities
with ancient wisdom:
If we ask whether the position of an electron remains unchanged,
we have to say: no. If we ask whether it changes with time, wehave to say: no. If we ask whether the electron is at rest, we have
to say: no. If we ask whether it moves, we have to say: no
(Oppenheimer)
Upanishads It moves. It moves not. It is far and it is close. It is
inside and outside of everything.
HOW DO WE BUILD A KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY?
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HOW DO WE BUILD A KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY?
Our history is marked by a dominant resource used at a specifictime, e.g. iron in the Iron Age, land and physical labor during
feudalism, capital and labor during early capitalism, oil inthe 20th century. Possession of these resources meant
political power and - since all of these resources are relativelyscarce - history has been characterized by continuous fight for them.
The essential resource of todays world is knowledge.
Knowledge is inexhaustible and is increased by sharing.
The emphasis is not on the knowledge anybody has, but on theknowledge one produces.
Other resources existed independently and separately ofpeople, knowledge resides exclusively in people. Therefore,
it is clear that the greatest wealth of any society is its people,its citizens.
4 MORE THAN COOPERATION
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4. MORE THAN COOPERATION
The Eskimos have a sayingThe best place to store food is in another person belly.
Social groups and social interactions play important rolesin the evolution of humans generating cooperation even
empathy and love, and competition even animosity and fighting.
In their quest for survival and reproductions
animals behave against the other members of their speciesin the same way as game players.
In 1973 John Maynard Smith applied game theory - first formalizedby John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern in 1953
to the evolution of animal strategies and introduced
the central concept evolutionary stable strategy (ESS).Animals not only compete but often share a resource
if that is beneficiary.
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Rather simple species display cooperation and theexplanation of the evolution of this unexpected behavior
is based on the special problem in the game theorythe prisoners dilemma.
Robert Axelrod found a winning strategy for repeatedprisoners dilemma. The winner: tit-for-tat: cooperate
and never be the first to defect, retaliate only after
your partner has defected, forgive and cooperateafter retaliating just once.
Altruism is an example of a non-zero-sum-game, i.e. a win-win game.The state when nobody can gain without somebody else losing
i.e. all win-win games are exhausted - is called the Paretooptimum. Innovations and more importantly,
scientific breakthroughs can increase the Pareto optimum.
In a global world the extreme of iterated prisoners dilemma
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g p
demands more than cooperation, more than tit-for-tat.
In all major cultures one basic moral law dominates:
Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself.(Lev.19:18, 1000 B.C.)
What you do not want others to do to you, do not doto others. (Confucius, 500 B.C.)
This is the sum of all true righteousness: deal with others as thouwouldst
thyself be dealt by. (The Mahabharata, 150 B.C.),
C. Darwin: As man advances in civilization, andtribes are united into larger communities, the simplest reasonwould tell each individual that he ought to extend his social
instincts and sympathies to all the members of the same nation.This point being reached, there is only an artificial barrier
to prevent his sympathies extending to men of all nations and races.
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Constantly increasing the Pareto optimum sciencegenerated
a global world. It can be almost said that the globalizationhas been pre-programmed it is the logic of humandestiny.
In our own selfish interest we have to get involved in
the betterment of global conditions. We need toemphasize
solidarity and compassion, increasing human optionsand
freedom rather than only competition, wealth andprofit.
A new paradigm emphasizes to berather than to have.
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IMPORTANCE OF MEASUREMENT (KELVIN)
MEASUREMENT DEPENDS ON THEORY (EINSTEIN)
Gross domestic product (GDP), improved and developedinto Human Development index (HDI) with inequalities
ratios
Environmental sustainability index (ESI),Globalization index (GI),
Competitiveness index (CI) and
Subjective well-being (SWB) which is the average ofhappiness and life satisfaction.
Country ESI HDI GCI GI HLS
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y
Range 0-100 0-1 Ranking Ranking:
62-1
0-100
Slovenia 58,8 0,879 31 25 69,5
Croatia 62,5 0,809 53 22 66,0B&H 51,3 - - - 61,5
S &MN - - - - 61
Macedonia 47,2 0,772 81 - 56
Romania - 0,775 75 40 59,5
Bulgaria - 0,779 64 - 45,0
Greece 50,9 0,885 35 26 -
Albania 59,7 0,733 - - -
Italy 47,2 0,913 41 24 84,5
Austria 64,2 0,926 17 8 81,5
Hungary 62,7 0,835 33 23 65,0
Czech Republic 50,2 0,849 39 15 69,5
Turkey 50,8 0,742 65 53 72,0
USA 53,2 0,939 2 11 89,5
Ireland 54,8 0,925 30 1 90,5
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5. SUSTAINABLE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
In his play Don Juan G. B. Shaw wrote to be in hell is to
drift, to be in heaven is to steer. and knowledge is needed
to steer.
Sustainable development is a dynamic state creatingconstantly
more human options and increasing the Pareto optimum.
Since knowledge is the best generator for increasing Paretooptimum we call such a state a sustainable knowledge-
based society.
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Science is the best source of reliable knowledge about the world
9 8
83
1417
68
24
12
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Disagree Unsure Agree
Percen
Scientists Legislators Public
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Public assesment of scientific research:1979-99
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1999
1997
1995
1992
1990
1988
1985
1981
1979
Benef.sci.res. Benef.equal Harmful
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6. INTERTWINING KNOWLEDGE AND GOVERNANCE:
First, democracy is the best political system and it has to beconstantly improved to strengthen checks and balances.
Scientific activity is in many ways similar to democracy.It functions with minimum of formal structures, but it has
leadership, cooperation, rules of conduct and sanctionsagainst those who do not follow these rules. Scienceasks for transparency and new ideas, even heresy.
Politics of the past did not tolerate heresy and barely
accepted new ideas.
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Second, almost all major breakthroughs have beenaccomplished by the curiosity-driven research. It mightappear that the curiosity-driven research is morally neutral.
However, scientists as all citizens should be activeparticipants in democratic opinion making,
decision-making and in political actions.Einstein was an excellent example of a socially committed
scientist.
A. Einstein was the first citizen of a knowledge society.
Third, knowledge society cannot be an elite on an island
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d, o edge soc ety ca ot be a e te o a s a din a sea of mediocrity. The spirit of knowledge has to
permeate the entire society. Life-long educationencompassing the entire society is a condition
for building a knowledge society.
All countries are very far from that goal.
Only 21% of the EU working age population has
achieved tertiary education, compared with 38% inthe USA, 43% in Canada, 36% in Japan and 26% inSouth Korea. In the EU about 52% of the age group
is enrolled in higher education which is highercompared to 49% in Japan, but lags behind 59% in Canada,
81% in the USA and 82% in South Korea.
EU has 5.5% researchers per 1000 employees well below the9.0 in the USA or 9.7 in Japan.
7. CONCLUSION
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We need a sustainable knowledge society.In the European (civilization), Arabic
and Persian (madaniyya, tammadon) languagesthe word civilization is derived from city life
and laws relevant to living in a city.
By contrast, in Chinese and Japanese the words arewen ming(Chinese) and bun mei(Japanese) and they
suggest learning and enlightenment.
While a clash between systems governed by differentlaws is possible, the concept underlining learning and
enlightenment truly leads to a knowledge society.
It is not safe for apes to play with atoms. For the scientific
society to be democratic and to remain democratic, thepeople themselves must understand the nature of scientific
forces and the problems that dominate their lives.
Public understanding of scientific terms and concepts: 1999
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Public understanding of scientific terms and concepts: 1999
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
The continents are moving slowly
about on the face of the Earth
Light travels faster than sound
Knows that all radioactivity is not
manmade
Earliest humans did not l ive at tha time
of the dinosurs
The Earth goes around the Sun once a
year
Electrons are smaller than atoms
Knows lasers do not work by focusing
sound waves
Understands the term "DNA"
Understands the term "molecule"
Percent answering statements correctly
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1999
1997
1995
DNA
1999
1997
1995
Molecule
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Nuclear power is simple when compared with the
complexities that the genetic research opens.It is not only more complex and richer,
it also advances in steps which do not need big R&Das the nuclear bomb did.
Edmund Burke wrote more than 200 years agoThe reason the world is suffering is not so much
because of the evil deeds of the wicked people, but
because of the inaction of the good people.
At the conference devoted to holocaust in Stockholmin 2000 the idea was put forward that
Ten Commandments should be augmented by two additional laws:11) Thou shalt not be a victim and
12) Thou shalt not be neutral.
The necessary condition for a sustainable knowledge
society is the active role of all its citizens.