P.R. Shukla and Vaibhav Chaturvedi Indian Institute of … · 2020-02-06 · P.R. Shukla, Prem...
Transcript of P.R. Shukla and Vaibhav Chaturvedi Indian Institute of … · 2020-02-06 · P.R. Shukla, Prem...
INDIA: INTEGRATED MODELING FRAMEWORK
P.R. Shukla and Vaibhav ChaturvediIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad
Asia Modeling MeetingSeptember 17, 2009
Tsukuba, Japan
Integrated Modeling Framework
DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
elA
IM Strategic D
atabase(SD
B)
Integrated Modelling FrameworkDATABASES
AIM CGE Model
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
elA
IM Strategic D
atabase(SD
B)
DATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment
AIM CGE/MINICAM
ANSWER-MARKALModel
AIM ExSSEnd
Use
Dem
and
Mod
el
AIM
(SDB
)(Strategic D
atabase)
Integrated Modelling Framework
Key Design Characteristics• Model: ANSWER-MARKAL (REGIONAL ENERGY
SYSTEM MODEL) • Participating Modelers: P.R. Shukla, Prem Pangotra,
Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Prasoon Agarwal, Amir Bazaz• Time Step: 5-years• Time Frame: 2000-2050• Solution Type: Dynamic, Optimal• Equilibrium Type: Energy Marker Equilibrium• Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS
Inputs and Outputs• Key inputs
– Demographics: age, gender and income structure of the population– Economic: GDP, Sector GVA, Energy Prices, Price elasticities, End-
use demands – Resources: Domestic depletable resources by grade (e.g. fossil
fuels and uranium); renewable resources by grade (e.g. wind, solar).– Technology: Technology representations of production,
transformation and use technologies– Carbon Prices, Emissions Constraints
• Key outputs– Primary energy consumption, production, transformation, end use,
and trade.– By energy source, end-use sector: CO2 emissions, non-CO2 GHG
emissions (e.g. CH4 ) and non-GHG pollutants (SO2 , NOx etc.)– Supply and demand-side technology penetrations– Shadow Prices, Investment
Regional Scope & Other Detail• Regional Details:
– Regional Scope: National (MARKAL), Cities (with ExSS)
• Other Details:– Energy Demand Sectors: Industry, Transportation,
Buildings, Agriculture, Public services (e.g. water supply, street lighting)
– Energy Supply Sectors: Fossil Energy Production, Electricity Generation, Direct Energy Supply (e.g. solar in buildings)
– End-use Technologies: Alternate industrial processes, demand-side energy technologies
– Other: 3R type policies, Infrastructure choices, Materials stocks accounting etc.
MINICAM: Primary Energy & Emissions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
Base Case Scenario: INDIA
OilGas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
Per Capita Emissions and GDP
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Per
Cap
ita G
DP
in 2
005
USD
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Per
Cap
ita E
mis
sion
s in
ton
carb
on
GDP- India China OECD Emissions- India China OECD
BaU
INDIA: Carbon Emissions
MINICAM: Implications of Stabilization Scenarios
450 ppmv Scenario
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
OilGas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
550 ppmv Scenario
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Mto
e
OilGas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
GDP Loss for India
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
%
450 ppmv
550 ppmv
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Mto
e
Base Case Scenario: INDIA
OilGas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
Unconventional oil
MARKAL: Energy and Carbon Emissions
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mto
e
Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
Energy From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times
Growth of Economy and Population
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
20002005 201020152020202520302035204020452050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Others
CCS
Device EfficiencyRenewable Energy
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
Base
CT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
20002005 201020152020202520302035204020452050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
OthersOthers
CCS
Device EfficiencyDevice EfficiencyRenewable Energy Renewable Energy
Electricity (Fuel Switch)Electricity (Fuel Switch)
Base
CT
2050
OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy BuildingElectricity (Fuel Switch)
Renewable Energy Renewable
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005201020152020202520302035204020450
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005201020152020202520302035204020452050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
550 ppmv Mitigation: Conventional Scenario 550 ppmv Mitigation: Sustainability Scenario
AMC (Old
boundary)
AMC (New
boundary)
Transport Efficiency
Industry Efficiency
Building Efficiency
Fuel Switch
Coal + CCS
Emissions101718065
9163
1632901
12553031
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005 2035 BaU 2035 CM
GH
G E
mis
sion
s/re
duct
ions
( kt
-C02
)
Emission reduction(67%)
24047
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.0
Valu
e in
200
5 =
1
TransportDemand
EnergyDemand
GHG Emissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 CM
Passenger Transport Sector
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5
Inde
x 20
05 =
1
Output (bil. INR)
EnergyDemand
GHGEmissions
2005 2035 BAU 2035 CMIndustry Sector
ExSS Model: Low Carbon Transition in Ahmedabad CityAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton As told to CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/11/do-not-follow-us-growth-model-clinton-tells-india.htmhttp://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.gps/
"Although India and China have every right to choose their own path of development, they should not follow the American model in their Endeavour to improve the condition of their citizens, ….“
"Our argument to China and India is: Yes, you have a right to develop and we want you to develop, and in fact, we admire your commitment to eradicating poverty and we want to help you do that. But you can't do it the way we did it, because you will suffer consequences that will undermine your development" ….
Perspectives on Developing Country Scenarios
Joseph Stiglitz“For developing countries, the ‘good news’ is that their environment and natural resources policies are often so bad that there are reforms which would be both good for the economy and good for the environment.”