2019General Fund Revenue Forecast

Revenue Forecast Committee

Revenue Committee

• Carol Griffith – County Commissioner, Finance Chair

• Brandon Denby – Register of Deeds

• Jennifer Nash – Treasurer

• Melissa Scharrer – Friend of the Court

• Ken Hinton – County Administrator

• Cindy Catanach – Deputy County Admin./Financial Officer

• Hilery DeHate – Financial Analyst/ Finance

• Joe McClure – Financial Analyst/ Sheriff’s Office

• Jeff Warder – Undersheriff

• Sue Bostwick – Equalization

• Elizabeth Hundley – County Clerk

• Kristi Cox – Chief Deputy County Clerk

• Roberta Sacharski – Circuit & Probate Court Administrator

• Francine Zysk – District Court Administrator

• Aaron Everest – Drain

• Matt Mlynarchek – Deputy Treasurer

• Kristen Landis – Sheriff’s Office

• Allison Nalepa – Communication & IT Administrative Specialist

System of State & Local Tax

Michigan’s system of state & local tax has 60 elements - 38 state and 22 by, or for local, governments.

Voter approval required to level new local taxes or increase rate of existing taxes.

Taxes• Levied to raise revenue for the general operation of government

• Levied to benefit the general public

• Compulsory in nature.

User Fees• Must serve a regulatory purpose rather than a revenue-raising purpose

• Must be proportionate to the necessary costs of the service or commodity, and imposed on those benefiting from the right or service improvement supported by the fee

• Voluntary in nature

2016 Property taxes accounted for 63% of GF revenue

2016 User fees provided about 14% of GF revenue

Assessed & Taxable Value

Year Assessed Value

2007 $11,095,355,398

2008 $10,587,493,440

2009 $9,791,590,126

2010 $8,811,797,115

2018 $10,876,905,017

Year Taxable Value

2007 $8,793,696,047

2008 $8,825,751,150

2009 $8,572,600,661

2010 $7,953,592,697

2018 $8,878,491,771

There is a 22.5% difference between 2018’s Assessed and Taxable Values

Headlee Effect

While we’ve exceeded our highest taxable value to date, our revenue is less due to the

Headlee rollbacks

Year Taxable Value Millage Rate Revenue

2008 $8,825,751,150 3.3897 $29,916,649

2018 $8,878,491,771 3.3283 $29,550,284

INCREASE $52,740,621 LESS $336,365

2018 Inflation Rate Multiplier

Month & Year CPI - Index Month & Year CPI - Index

October 2016 241.729 October 2017 246.663

November 2016 241.353 November 2017 246.669

December 2016 241.432 December 2017 246.524

January 2017 242.839 January 2018 247.867

February 2017 243.603 February 2018 248.991

March 2017 243.801 March 2018 249.554

April 2017 244.524 April 2018 250.546

May 2017 244.733 May 2018 251.588

June 2017 244.955 June 2018

July 2017 244.786 July 2018

August 2017 245.519 August 2018

September 2017 246.819 September 2018

Average 243.8410833 248.55025

Ratio: 1.019% % Change: 1.90%

Forecasting Process

Identify Major General Fund Revenue Sources

Initial Committee Meeting• Comprised of County Subject Matter Experts (SME) from various County

Departments

Level 1 Revenue Projection• Developed with input from each of the SME’s as well as other departmental

employees knowledgeable about their department operations

• Enter Revenue Forecast into Level 1 Base projection

• Provide projection of Level 1 Revenue Forecast to Finance Committee

Follow Up Analysis (take place between Level 2 and Level 3)• Evaluate current activity

• Make adjustments as needed through Level 3

Levels of Budget Process

• Base Projection Due: June 29th

Level 1

• Department Request Due: July 27th

Level 2

• Administration Recommendation Due: October 10th

Level 3

• Finance Committee Review & Recommendation Due: November 14th

Level 4

• Adopted Due: December 3rd

Level 5More information on the process levels can be found on the County Administration Finance web page:https://www.livgov.com/fiscal-services/

Level 1: Base Projection

Revenueo Revenue Forecast Committee meet and

project 2018 General Fund (GF) Revenue

o Provide GF projection to Finance

Committee

o Include as Level 1 Base Projected GF

Revenue

Expenseso Target allocations are provided to

departments based on 3 year average of

General Fund Allocation

o County Finance provides a list of current

authorized positions with associated wage

and benefit costs for each position

o County Finance incorporates projections for

Cost Allocation and Internal Service Fund

charges for Intro Level 1 in Munis

Level 2: Department Request

• Identify staffing needs

• Identify program, positions, and equipment needs

• Develop requested operating budget and enter into MUNIS

• Meet with County Admin & Board representative to discuss request

• Department Directors present Operating Budget Requests to appropriate Committee

Within target allocation:

Level 3: Administration Recommendation

• County Administration compiles and analyzes Department requests

• Revenue Forecast Committee meets to discuss updated revenue projections

• County Administrator presents recommendation to Finance Committee

Level 4: Finance Recommendation

• Based on Department Directors presentations and County Administrations recommendations, Finance committee to make decisions

• Budgets adjusted accordingly

Level 5: Final Adopted Budget

Other Budget Items

General Fund – expectation is to

balance expenditures within

target allocation

Other Funds – expected to

balance expenditures within

annual revenue

Line items requiring detail in Level 2

Department Requests

• 747000 Operating Supplies over

$10,000

• 801000-803000 Professional

Consultants, Attorney Fees, Indigent

and Legal Services

• 817000 Membership Dues

• 819000-819999 Contract Services

• 860500 Out of State Travel

• 943300-943902 Software Maintenance

• 957000-957001 Employee

Training/Seminars

• 97**** All Capital Equipment and

Building Improvements

Taxes63%

Fines & Forfeitures

Licenses & Permits

Charges For Service13%

Rental Income

Interest

Other Revenue

Federal Sources

State Sources12%

Contributions From Locals

Transfers In

Capital Grants/ Contributions

TAXES

FINES & FORFEITURES

LICENSE & PERMITS

CHARGES FOR SERVICE

RENTAL INCOME

INTEREST

OTHER REVENUE

FEDERAL SOURCES

STATE SOURCES

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LOCAL

TRANSFERS IN

CAPITAL GRANTS/ CONTRIBUTIONS

Revenue Sources

2019 Level 1 Projected

$30,662,629

$341,000

$433,820

$6,270,714

$1,672,920

593,300

$2,647,850

$50,500

$5,732,654

$25,000

$557,265

$10,000

$48,997,682

Category

Total:

Historical Revenues & Expenses

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Revised

2019Projected

2020Projected

Revenues $47,840,540 $46,432,921 $45,250,257 $43,237,150 $41,404,406 $40,330,696 $40,813,095 $41,124,261 $42,511,594 $43,485,252 $44,613,541 $49,248,423 $48,997,682 $49,299,387

Expenses $46,126,146 $44,816,588 $42,619,585 $40,915,515 $40,389,246 $40,038,145 $39,557,263 $41,423,523 $39,861,374 $43,262,955 $43,271,823 $49,721,073

Mill

ion

s

Revenues Expenses

Revenues At A Glance

Millions

Millions

Millions

-$26K

Millions

(2019 compared to 2018)

$5.2

$1.7

$1.5

$1.2M(2019 compared

to 2018)

$29.5

$5.2 $2.3

$5.5

$5.7

$5.2

$5.9

$4.7 $4.9 $5.1 $5.3 $5.5 $5.7 $5.9

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018 Revised

2017 Actual

State Sources

$1.7

$2.6

$2.7

$2.9

$0.0 $0.5 $1.0 $1.5 $2.0 $2.5 $3.0

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018 Revised

2017 Actual

Other Revenue

$32.0

$30.7

$29.5

$28.3

$26.0 $27.0 $28.0 $29.0 $30.0 $31.0 $32.0

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018 Revised

2017 Actual

Taxes

$1.7

$1.7

$1.7

$1.7

$1.0 $1.2 $1.4 $1.6 $1.8

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018 Revised

2017 Actual

Rental Income

-$18K(2019 compared

to 2018)

$532K(2019 compared

to 2018)

Tax Base Source: Equalization

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2016 2017 2018 2019 Projected 2020 Projected

9.75% 9.60% 9.50% 9.70% 10.30%

2.36% 2.40% 2.50% 2.70% 2.90%

79.73% 80.30% 80.40% 81.00% 81.10%

1.59% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%6.57% 6.20% 6.10% 5.10% 4.20%

Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

Tax Base (Compared To State Average) Source: Equalization

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2017 2018 2019 Projected 2020 Projected 2018 State Average

9.60% 9.50% 9.70% 10.30%14.00%

2.40% 2.50% 2.70% 2.90%

4.30%

80.30% 80.40% 81.00% 81.10% 69.30%

1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

5.50%

6.20% 6.10% 5.10% 4.20% 6.60%

Commercial Industrial Residential Agricultral Personal Property

New Construction Source: EqualizationN

um

be

r o

f P

erm

its

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Projected

2020Projected

Other Permits New Housing Permits

State Equalized Value Source: EqualizationP

erc

en

t o

f C

han

ge

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Projected

2020Projected

Agricultral Commercial Industrial Residential Personal Property

Assessed Vs. Taxable Value Source: Equalization

$7,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

$9,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$11,000,000,000

$12,000,000,000

$13,000,000,000

Assessed Value Taxable Value

Property Tax Forecast Source: Treasurer

AmountChanged

% Changed

2016 Property Tax Revenue $27,264,652 - -

2017 Property Tax Revenue $28,121,029 $856,377 3.05%

2018 Budgeted Revenue $28,759,233 - -

2018 Revised Projected Revenue $29,200,000 $1,078,971 3.70%

2019 Projected Tax Value $30,480,629 $1,280,629 4.20%

2020 Projected Tax Revenue $31,802,498 $1,321,869 4.16%

Year Property Tax Revenue2007 $29,085,262

2008 $29,025,853

2009 $28,436,646

2010 $26,682,237

2011 $25,524,601

2012 $24,970,423

2013 $25,198,624

2014 $25,808,425

2015 $26,885,973

2016 $27,264,652

2017 $28,121,029

2018 $29,200,000

2019 $30,480,629

2020 $31,802,498

$24

$25

$26

$27

$28

$29

$30

$31

$32

$33

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mill

ion

s

Property Tax Revenue

Captured Values Source: Treasurer

DDA'S, TIFA'S AND LDFA'S

Year Taxable Value Revenue Captured

2010 $185,444,159 $510,056

2011 $230,798,883 $465,389

2012 $215,284,090 $450,600

2013 $191,001,836 $411,677

2014 $185,854,230 $390,532

2015 $206,763,006 $416,633

2016 $170,554,109 $339,284

2017 $157,310,770 $309,435

2018 $147,814,906 $303,000

Interest Income Source: Treasurer

General Fund Investment Interest

2004 $484,449

2005 $824,831

2006 $1,110,976

2007 $1,177,210

2008 $808,201

2009 $337,996

2010 $115,320

2011 $81,991

2012 $60,037

2013 $53,162

2014 $89,778

2015 $182,679

2016 $256,348

2017 $340,585

2018 YTD (5/31)

$178,956

2019 Budgeted

$525,000

2020 Budgeted

$615,000

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

Tax Delinquency Source: Treasurer

Year Tax Adjusted Levy Total Delinquency Del Rate

2007 $282,769,925 $22,191,000 7.85%

2008 $276,848,463 $25,068,000 9.05%

2009 $273,169,009 $21,921,946 8.03%

2010 $256,436,642 $18,197,235 7.10%

2011 $247,875,955 $16,054,617 6.48%

2012 $247,012,311 $13,098,939 5.30%

2013 $249,657,258 $11,399,487 4.57%

2014 $253,300,901 $9,494,116 3.75%

2015 $261,356,891 $8,506,775 3.25%

2016 $274,575,236 $8,323,469 3.03%

2017 $281,711,692 $8,014,462 2.84%

One of the lowest

delinquency rates in

Michigan.

Revenue Sharing Source: State of MI Treasury

$2,563,336$2,297,584

$3,580,449

$3,122,844

$3,153,639

$3,171,660

$3,185,729

$3,185,729

$2,997,785

$3,078,725

$1,429,811

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Revised

2019Projected

2020Projected

State Share Reserve Fund

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Year End Foreclosures Source: Register of Deeds

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

# of Foreclosed Properties 1029 1333 1219 1309 1132 728 455 261 203 147 123

% of Redeemed Properties 5% 4% 5% 9% 10% 12% 13% 8% 13% 29% 16%

Redeemed Properties

2000 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

85

6161

,21

9

1,3

09

1,1

32

728

455

261 203 147 123

2018 Projected

85

Register of Deeds Revenue

2015 2016 2017 2018 Budgeted 2019 Projected

Tract Index $17,303.15 $17,169.73 $13,946.64 $15,000.00 $12,000.00

County Transfer Tax $1,129,594.95 $1,315,216.40 $1,308,852.05 $1,130,000.00 $1,250,000.00

Charges for Service $740,012.65 $813,609.78 $905,074.44 $925,000.00 $905,000.00

Computer Usage $196,149.50 $215,927.75 $193,996.75 $190,000.00 $193,000.00

$0.00

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

2015 2016 2017 Actuals 2018 Budgeted 2019 Projected

Mill

ion

s

Tract Index County Transfer Tax Charges for Service Computer Usage

Court Revenue

$4,441,007

$4,441,007

$4,665,943

$4,716,868

$4,300,000 $4,350,000 $4,400,000 $4,450,000 $4,500,000 $4,550,000 $4,600,000 $4,650,000 $4,700,000 $4,750,000

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018

2017

Revenue Projections By Court

$143,136 (3%)

$3,256,372 (73%)

$213,390 (5%)

$221,201 (5%)

$12,703 (.03%)$594,205 (13%)

2019 & 2020 Projected

Circuit Court District Court Probate Court Juvenile Court Guardianship Central Services

State & Court Revenue Sources

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018

2017

76%

76%

76%

76%

24%

24%

24%

24%

Court Revenue State Revenue

State Revenue Sources

$562,147

$562,147

$600,000

$605,000

$369,475

$369,475

$368,539

$368,539

$78,389

$78,389

$78,389

$78,389

$77,170

$77,170

$39,000

$42,000

$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000

2020 Projected

2019 Projected

2018

2017

Court Equity Judges' Salary Juvenile CJO & 2 Assistants Other State Revenue

County Clerk Revenue

$0.00

$20,000.00

$40,000.00

$60,000.00

$80,000.00

$100,000.00

$120,000.00

$140,000.00

$160,000.00

$180,000.00

$200,000.00

2015 2016 2017 2018 Budgeted 2019 Projected 2020 Projected

$189,611

$122,722

$132,897

$104,625$110,250 $110,250

County Clerk – Circuit Court Revenue

$390,000

$400,000

$410,000

$420,000

$430,000

$440,000

$450,000

$460,000

2015 2016 2017 2018 Budgeted 2019 Projected 2020 Projected

$439,129

$459,620

$429,074

$438,100

$414,100 $414,100

County Clerk – Elections Revenue

$0

$15,000

$30,000

$45,000

$60,000

$75,000

$90,000

$105,000

$120,000

$135,000

$150,000

$165,000

$180,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Budgeted

2019Projected

2020Projected

$75,265 $78,642

$167,106

$40,494

$99,300

$3,175

$119,050

Sheriff/Law Enforcement – General Fund Revenue

2014 2018DEA Overtime

Reimbursement$20,368 $36,000

Township Contracts

$200,158 $253,850

Documents & Information

$18,551 $8,500

Motor Carrier Fines

$1,981 $0

Some key revenue lines having significant change

from 2014 – 2018:$200,158 $198,859

$238,681$247,031

$253,850 $252,051$258,761

$64,601

$67,214

$61,490

$237,375

$64,000

$129,000 $129,000

$91,726

$66,532

$69,379$63,095

$88,480

$79,970 $79,970

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Bdgt 2019Projected

2020Projected

Township Contracts

Spec. Event Security Svcs

Other ThanTwnshps or Spec Events

PipelineSecurity

Jail – General Fund Revenue

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Budget 2019 Projected 2020 Projected

$624,879 $661,931 $712,058 $863,138 $582,000 $591,800 $591,800

$199,902 $748,103

$1,617,438 $1,649,377

$1,611,608 $1,604,240 $1,608,416

Excluding Marshal Rev. Marshal Rev. (Rent & Transp)

Jail – General Fund Revenue

1411

141111

21

2523 23 22

2427

29 3031

41

55

52

48 48

54 5456 56

52 5351 51

46

5249 49 50

45

40

48 4951

55

4951

58

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Monthly Average Daily Population For Federal Detainees(Rounded to nearest whole number)

Drain – Total *SESC Revenue & Permits

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

SESC Total Revenue by Year

*Soil Erosion Sedimentation Control

Revenue

Permits

Issued

Drain – Wages & Fringes Payback

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019ProjectionCrew W & F Reimb Admin W & F Reimb

Total Revenue Impact

GF Revenue Source 2017 Actuals 2018 Revised 2019 Projected % Change 2020 Projected

Taxes $28,283,573 $29,474,617 $30,662,629 4.0% $31,974,498

Fines & Forfeitures $344,522 $341,000 $341,000 0.0% $341,000

License & Permits $440,459 $429,525 $433,850 1.0% $445,750

Charges For Service $6,372,188 $6,267,440 $6,270,714 0.1% $6,339,599

Rental Income $1,728,988 $1,691,088 $1,672,920 -1.1% $1,677,096

Interest $362,153 $333,300 $593,300 78.0% $683,300

Other Revenue $2,896,147 $2,673,356 $2,647,850 -1.0% $1,701,149

Federal Sources $13,400 $52,800 $50,500 -4.4% $50,500

State Sources $5,851,890 $5,200,261 $5,732,654 10.2% $5,487,310

Contributions From Local Units $27,773 $26,000 $25,000 -3.8% $25,000Capital Grants/ Contributions $9,146 $9,146 $10,000 9.3% $0

Gain on Sale of Fixed Assets $0 $10,000 $0 -100.0% $0

Transfers In $556,677 $2,739,890 $557,265 -79.7% $574,185

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $46,886,915 $49,248,423 $48,997,682 -0.50% $49,299,387