Powering Our Clean Air Future - Junior Stock RevieAlbemarle - All Albemarle information taken from...
Transcript of Powering Our Clean Air Future - Junior Stock RevieAlbemarle - All Albemarle information taken from...
Powering Our Clean Air Future
Special Report
Brian Leni P.Eng
11/28/2016
Why lithium? Great question. In my opinion, it's simultaneously the simplest and most complex metal.
Lithium's 'simplicity' comes from the fact that it's been used in industry for quite some time, and most of
the general public know the metal in its battery form. Its complexity relates to the science behind how
and why it's presently used, but more importantly, the role lithium will play in the future.
Lithium isn't rare, but the lithium market is definitely under developed in comparison to most other
industrial commodities, leaving the space to a select few conglomerate giants and a group of junior
companies. The fact is, lithium has a ton of applications, from lubricating grease and glass fabrication, to
glazes for ceramics, and finally, batteries. In particular, lithium is and will continue to play an increasingly
important role in the battery-powered clean air future.
In my mind, if you're looking to invest in this global clean air trend, the best bang for your buck is a small
junior company, Lithium X Energy Corporation. As you will see, this company was built on a strong
foundation, with the people, properties, jurisdictions, and cash necessary to execute their plan of action.
Let's take a closer look at the lithium narrative...
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Hi, my name is Brian Leni, founder of JuniorStockReview.com
The purpose of this report is to bring your attention to a company that has the potential to make you
rich - Lithium X Energy Corporation. I believe the lithium market is set to explode in the coming years,
and Lithium X is poised to fill the impending demand. Before I get to the reasons why I think the future is
bright for lithium, let me first tell you a little about myself.
I have lived my entire life in Canada, and am an Engineer by trade. After graduating, I worked in heavy
industry for 10 years, predominantly in the steel industry. I have also received Professional Engineer
(P.Eng) designation in Ontario.
I got started in the stock market when I began working full-time. I was immediately drawn to the junior
sector because of the incredible life-changing gains that could be made from these tiny resource stocks.
The motivation to start this website is rooted in my experiences. My goal is to help you avoid my
mistakes, while providing in-depth analysis on investment ideas and financial products that could be the
game-changers in your investment experience.
Thanks and enjoy the report,
Brian Leni P.Eng
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Lithium – Hard-Rock and Brine
Lithium is present in a number of different minerals, but for those who deal with its commercial
extraction, there are really only a few that are of interest.
Pegmatites
Pegmatites are commonly found throughout the world, but lithium-rich granite pegmatites are much
less common, making up less than 1%. Granite pegmatite-ore bodies are the hard-rock source of lithium.
The lithium minerals that occur in granite pegmatites are spodumene, apatite, lepidolite, tourmaline
and amblygonite.
Spodumene is the most commonly occurring lithium hard-rock mineral, which, once upon a time, made
it the number one source of lithium metal in the world. It has since been surpassed by brines, which, for
a number of reasons, have become the largest contributor to lithium production.
Pegmatite Hard-Rock Processing
Lithium hard-rock recovery can be broken down into a few key steps: crushing of the ore, concentration
by froth floatation, followed by hydrometallurgy and precipitation from an aqueous solution. From here,
depending on the application, the producer will typically create either lithium hydroxide or lithium
carbonate, which can be sent to factories to be manufactured into its final form.
When evaluating a hard-rock lithium deposit, there are a few key things to look for:
Lithium Grade - Arguably the most important figure in any type of deposit. Typically, the higher the
grade of lithium, the more economic the deposit.
By-Products – Not to be confused with 'harmful' impurities, by-products can help reduce the cost per
ton because they have value. For lithium hard-rock deposits, tantalum, beryllium and caesium are
examples of profitable by-products of the refinement process.
Impurity Levels – High concentrations of impurities (non-profitable by-products) can lead to higher
refinement costs and could limit their use in end use applications, such as glass and ceramics.
Location – Poor proximity to infrastructure can make a high grade lithium mine a lot less profitable or
not even economically feasible.
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Brines
Lithium brine deposits are accumulations of saline groundwater that are enriched in dissolved lithium.
Lithium concentrations are typically measured in parts per million (ppm), milligrams per litre (mg/L) and
weight percentage.
Brine is pumped up from the ground and placed into man-made ponds, where the lithium is
concentrated via evaporation. Depending on the climate and weather in the region of the brine deposit,
lithium concentration can take a few months to a year. Typically, lithium concentrations range between
1 and 2%. Unlike their hard-rock cousins, these concentrations can be sent to processing plants for end
use production.
All lithium brine deposits have a few common characteristics (Bradley, Munk, Jochens, Hynek, Labay.
USGS – A Preliminary Deposit Model for Lithium Brines, 4).
Arid climates
Closed basin containing a playa or salar
Tectonically driven subsidence
Associated igneous or geothermal activity
Suitable lithium source-rocks
One or more aquifers
Sufficient time to concentrate a brine
Similarly to the list of common characteristics for brine deposits, there are a few things that are
particularly important when evaluating a brine deposit:
Evaporation Rate – evaporation is dependent upon the climate in which the deposit is located. Hours of
sunlight, humidity, wind levels and temperature all have an effect on the evaporation rate. A low
evaporation rate could make the difference between an economic deposit and an uneconomic one.
Lithium Grade – Arguably the most important figure in any type of deposit. Typically, the higher the
grade of lithium, the more economic the deposit.
By-Products – Not to be confused with 'harmful' impurities, by-products can help reduce the cost per
ton because they have value. For lithium deposits, the primary by-product is potassium.
Location – Poor proximity to infrastructure can make a high grade lithium mine a lot less profitable or
not even economically feasible.
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Impurity Levels – The magnesium to lithium ratio and the sulphate to lithium ratio are very important
figures to look at when examining a brine deposit, because separating these impurities from the lithium
is one of the largest expenses in the brine refinement process. For both of these ratios, you're looking
for low figures.
Brines are today’s answer to lithium demand as they are more wide spread, typically larger in resource
scale, and generally have lower production costs. Countries such as Chile, Argentina and China extract
the majority of their lithium production from brine deposits.
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The Lithium Supply Story
Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS)
Lithium reserves exist on 5 continents: North America, South America, Africa, Asia and Australia. As the
table shows, however, there are reserves on 5 continents but the concentration is in South America,
where there's approximately 66% of the world’s reserves.
'The Lithium Triangle' refers to Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Beginning with Chile, the number 2
producer of lithium in the world and 1st in reserves, their reserves are held in brine deposits. Its main
brine deposit is The Salar de Atacama, which is located in the Antofagasta region. The Salar de Atacama
is approximately 3000 square kilometres and has an estimated 6.8 Mt of lithium reserves.
For reference, 'salar' means a salt-encrusted depression (as in the nitrate fields in Chile) that may or
may not be the basin of an evaporated lake
The other key player in The Lithium Triangle is Argentina, the number 3 producer of lithium in the world
and 3rd in reserves. Argentina’s source of lithium, like Chile, is found in brines. Although Bolivia
currently makes up the smallest portion of The Lithium Triangle, it's thought to have the largest
undeveloped lithium brine in the world, Salar de Uyuni. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries estimates
that this prized salt flat contains 9 million tonnes of identified lithium resource.
China is the number 4 producer of lithium in the world and 2nd in reserves. China’s lithium deposits are
found both in hard-rock and brine sources. Its lithium-rich pegmatite deposits are found in Jiajika,
Barkam, Altai, Koktokay and the Nanping district, while its lithium-rich brines, which possess the vast
majority of its reserves, are found mainly on the Quighai-Tibet plateau.
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Currently, Australia is the number 1 producer of lithium in the world. Australia’s lithium is held in hard-
rock deposits, mainly the Greenbushes deposit, which is currently in production. Finally, the Mount
Cattlin and Mount Marion projects, which aren’t yet in production, are expected to alleviate some of the
supply crunch for world demand in the future.
Lithium is primarily sold through private contracts which are controlled by 4 companies:
Source: Sociedad Quimca Y Minera De Chile - Corporate presentation – Slide 11
With only 4 major players in the lithium market, I have put together some quick points on each company
to give you an idea of who they are, where they are, and what they do.
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Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries - Tianqi information taken from their website, unless otherwise cited.
Collectively, Chinese lithium producers have a market share of 40% (SQM - slide 11)
Traded on the Shenzhen Exchange (SZSE)
Based in China and founded in 1995. As stated on their website, “We...are a key enterprise to
the Provincial Government’s initiative for the 'Promotion and Support of Emerging Strategic
Industries,' ”
Tianqi offers a diverse product line, with both specialty and industrial application lithium
products.
Sociedad Quimca Y Minera De Chile (SQM) – All information acquired through corporate presentation
Lithium market share of 26%
Founded in 1968 to reorganize the Chilean nitrate industry. Over time, converted from a fully
Chilean State owned company to a private enterprise by 1988.
Ownership Structure: Pampa Group and Kona Group – 32%, Potash Corporation – 32%, Bank of
New York (ADRS) – 23%, and Other – 13% .
SQM is involved in a number of market segments, such as specialty plant nutrition, iodine,
lithium, industrial chemicals, potassium and metals exploration.
SQM lithium resources are held in salar brines within the Atacama Salt Desert region of Chile.
Joint Venture Project in Argentina planned for production in 2019, with a 50K Mt/year capacity.
Traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Albemarle - All Albemarle information taken from website and Corporate Investor Presentation
(September 13, 2016)
2015 Lithium market share of 20%.
Traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, United States.
Albemarle Paper Manufacturing Company was founded in 1887.
Albemarle is involved in a number of market segments, such as refining solutions, lithium and
advanced materials, bromine specialties, fine chemistry services, and Chemetall surface
treatment.
In 2015, Albemarle acquired Rockwood Holdings, parent company for Rockwood Lithium, for
USD $6.2 Billion.
Albemarle operates the world’s 2nd largest brine project on Salar de Atacama in Chile, with an
output of 25 ktpa, and the Silver Peak brine operation in the U.S., with an output of 6 ktpa.
Australian Hard-Rock Resources – Greenbushes Mine (through Talison JV) – Albemarle’s share of
annual capacity is 30 ktpa.
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FMC Corporation - All FMC information taken from website.
Lithium market share 12%.
Traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Established in 1883, FMC roots are in agriculture.
Corporate Headquarters in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Charlotte, North Carolina.
FMC is involved in a number of market segments, such as agriculture, health and nutrition and
lithium.
79% of FMC’s lithium revenue is derived from the sale of lithium specialty products, such as
lithium hydroxide, butyllithium, and high purity metal.
Technological Affects on Lithium Supply
A major impact to the lithium supply story could come from a technological breakthrough in the
refinement of lithium brines. Current research and development dollars spent by South Korean giant,
POSCO, and privately owned, Energi Corporation, are exploring methods of refining lithium brine
without the use of evaporation. The current major cost in the brine refinement process is the removal
of impurities such as magnesium, calcium, iron and potassium via evaporation and additives. If they are
successful, it will revolutionize the lithium mining industry, as more deposits will become economical
and existing mining operations could change production methods to capitalize on cheaper processing
costs. When or if this occurs, is a big question.
That said, the fact that R&D dollars are being spent in lithium refinement is a major plus, in my books.
With this much interest, I think you can almost guarantee a strong future for lithium, worldwide.
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Lithium Demand
Currently, lithium’s demand is rooted in the following applications (in no particular order):
Lubricant Grease – An estimated 2.38 billion pound market, in which lithium-based greases make up
75%. Lithium-based greases generally have good stability, high temperature characteristics and water-
resistance properties.
Glass – Lithium typically sourced from the mineral spodumene reduces the viscosity and thermal
expansion of glass and, therefore, leads to increased melting efficiencies and/or larger effective furnace
capacities. The end result is a substantial energy savings for the glass manufacturers.
Ceramics – Lithium is used in the ceramics industry to produce glazes. The glazes improve a ceramic
piece’s shock absorption and stain resistance, protecting the piece against damage. Lithium carbonate is
typically used for this application.
Health Products – Lithium, in small amounts (around 0.170 mg/L), is prescribed to those with bipolar
disorders or individuals with depression who don’t respond to anti-depressants.
Batteries – Batteries are possibly the best known lithium application of all. It's where the future lays for
lithium demand. This will be explained further in the next section.
Batteries
Why is lithium used in batteries? Simply, with current technology, lithium provides the best combination
of energy density (weight to power ratio) and price.
Batteries have essentially three main components: cathode, anode and electrolyte. When the cathode
and anode are connected via a wire, for example, electrons flow from the anode through the wire to the
cathode, creating an electrical current.
Currently, there are an estimated 80 different lithium-ion battery chemistries in production, with these
varying chemistries all exhibiting different characteristics, such as capacity and voltage. Lithium is
typically found in the cathode of the battery, commonly in the form of lithium cobalt oxide, while the
electrolyte is commonly in the form of a lithium salt, such as LiPF6, LiBF4 or LiCLO4. The anode material
is commonly carbon-based, with graphite being the most popular.
Overall, a lithium ion battery's output is around 3.6 volts, which is more than twice as much as its
alkaline cousin.
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What does the current lithium demand by application look like?
Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research - Lithium 101 – pg.23
Projected demand for 2025 is much different, not only in overall demand tonnage, but the percentages
each application encompasses. The future is expected to be bright for batteries in the non-traditional
markets; electric cars, e-bikes, and energy storage.
Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research - Lithium 101 – pg.23
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Lithium Present and Future Market Demand
Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research - Lithium 101 – pg.23
The interesting thing about this projected demand curve is that it is linear. The reason I think that's
interesting is that most things in life don't follow a linear path, especially those things that are rapidly
changing, such as the lithium market. Now, the opposite could be true, the demand could be flat or
declining in the future, but I tend to think that the future for lithium will be exponential.
For those who don’t know what an exponential function looks like, think of a hockey stick turned
upwards with the blade in the air. Basically, it looks linear for a while, constant growth, and then boom -
to the moon it goes.
Why do I think this? Mainly because of the politicized nature of green energy. Whether it's the 450
Scenario or some other push to reduce carbon emissions, governments across the world are allocating
more and more policy and CASH to the cause. The final inflection point could be massive and it could
happen before 2025, in my opinion.
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Emissions Perspective
The 450 Scenario calls for long-term concentrations of local greenhouse gases to be at 450 ppm CO2
equivalent by 2040. To put that into perspective, we globally emitted 32,381 Mt of CO2 in 2014
(International Energy Agency, 2016 Key World Energy Statistics, 45). Under the 450 Scenario, that
number reduces dramatically to 18,777 Mt of CO2.
Using the United States as an example, Statista states that there were around 260 million registered
vehicles in the United States in 2014. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that
U.S. fossil fuel consumption for transportation in 2015 resulted in a combined 1,545 million tonnes of
CO2, which is 29% of the total CO2 emissions by the country.
Emissions per vehicle = 1,545,000,000 / 260,000,000 = 6 tonnes/vehicle
Therefore, my estimated carbon emissions per U.S. vehicle is around 6 tonnes per year. If the United
States figures to comply with the goals of the 450 Scenario, to drop transportation emissions to 26%, in-
line with the rest of the world, they will need a reduction of 3% (29% to 26%) (International Energy
Agency, 2016 Key World Energy Statistics, 46). The following calculation shows that a reduction of this
magnitude would affect approximately 7.7 million vehicles.
3% of 1,545,000,000 = 46,350,000 tonnes of CO2
46,350,000t / 6 t/vehicle = 7,725,000 vehicles
NOTE: This calculation should not be taken as exact, there are assumptions that have been made. The
calculation is only to gain some perspective on the potential impact of the 450 Scenario.
Insideevs.com reports that there were 116,099 full electric vehicles sold in the United States in 2015,
and 441,179 worldwide. If you linearly distribute the number of vehicles affected by the 450 Scenario on
a 23-year time horizon (2017 to 2040), 7,725,000 / 23 = 335,870 vehicles per year would need to be
sold, or almost 3 times the number of current sales per year.
This is provided that car demand in the United States stays where it is. If there is growth in the number
of people who want to drive, this electric vehicle number would need to increase.
How does this equate to lithium demand? Well, it isn’t an easy calculation as there are a lot of
assumptions, but I did find an estimate of 47 lbs (0.021 t) of lithium per Tesla Model S (sedan). If
335,870 Tesla Model S were sold in the United States in a given year, this would translate into 335,870 x
0.021 t of 7,053 t of lithium, or 37,544 t of lithium carbonate (conversion from Li to LiCO3 – 1 : 5.323)
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To summarize this example:
Calculation only represents a 3% decrease in American transportation carbon emissions.
A 3% improvement in emissions will affect the equivalent of 7.7 million vehicles.
If these 7.7 million vehicles were replaced by fully electric vehicles over the next 23 years (450
scenario deadline is 2040), that would equate to 335,870 cars sold each year. In my opinion, it is
highly unlikely that it will be linearly distributed.
Using 2015 data from insideevs.com, world demand is roughly 4 times that of the United States,
thus, if the world kept pace, it would equal around 1.3 million vehicles per year.
In terms of lithium carbonate, 1.3 million electric vehicles could mean 150,176 t in worldwide
demand.
I believe this 3% improvement scenario for vehicles per year is conservative. In reality, I think demand in
the next 5 years could easily be twice as much. Deutsche Bank believes demand will hit 2.4 million in
global electric vehicles sold in 2025. They estimate total demand in terms of lithium carbonate
equivalent to be 534 kt, of which batteries would make up 45% (Deutsche Bank, Lithium 101 Report,
24).
The following table gives you a quick conversion factor for some common lithium compounds.
Source: London Stock Exchange
FYI - A quick example: If you're given a resource in terms of %Spodumene, 5%, and you want to convert
it to %Lithium, simply multiply the 5% by the lithium conversion factor 0.038, which equals 0.19%.
I believe it's undeniable that lithium will play a major role in this clean air renaissance. How can we
profit? My investment idea involves a small junior company in the lithium space, one that I believe has
major upside potential.
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Lithium X Energy Corporation
How does this projected lithium demand get filled? Well, I think that the big 4 have room to grow their
existing supply train, but the rest of the gap will be filled by the junior companies that can get to
production the fastest.
The company I feel is best suited to fill this gap in the years ahead is Lithium X Energy Corporation.
Lithium X is built with strong roots in all the right places, which is why I feel it will ultimately be one of
the winners in this race to production. Here's why:
The People
It's widely accepted that people are the backbone of any junior company, and when examining the team
of people that make up Lithium X, you know this was their plan. In my discussion with CEO, Brian Paes-
Braga, he explained that the team is supported by 4 key pillars: Financial, Geological, Mergers &
Acquisitions, and Operations.
Beginning with Paes-Braga, he has varying work experience, having started out as a young entrepreneur,
and later spent nearly a decade in the international financial sector.
The financial pillar is headlined by Paul Matysek and Fiore Advisory, which is a corporate advisory
company led by Gord Keep and Frank Giustra. Matysek has transformed small market capitalization
companies, including Energy Metals, Potash One and Lithium 1, into viable assets that were collectively
sold for more than $2.3 billion in aggregate proceeds. With the odds so stacked against the success of a
junior company, Matysek’s past success and involvement in this endeavour is a huge plus. Giustra is a
heavy hitter in the resource space, with an established track record and a string of successes that speak
to his ability to access capital and get the deals done.
The geological pillar is headed by VP of Project Development, Will Randall. Randall is a professional
geologist with extensive exploration and development experience in the lithium industry. As
summarized from Paes-Braga’s comments, the geological team is able to assess new opportunities in an
efficient and effective way when completing their due diligence. Lithium X put this due diligence into
practice with their purchase of Salar de Los Angeles in Argentina. It provided them with the information
they needed to determine that the project was robust, with over $17 million dollars already spent on
the property, and advance staged with respect to its nearness to production.
The deal for Salar de Los Angeles would not have been possible without the input of the Merger &
Acquisitions pillar, which is headed by CFO, Daniel Kriznic. Kriznic is a chartered professional accountant
with 10 years experience with Deloitte as a senior manager. Paes-Braga credits his due diligence as key
to the Salar de Los Angeles deal.
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Last, but certainly not least, the operations pillar, which is headed by COO, Eduardo Morales. Morales is
formerly Rockwood Lithium’s South American President. Morales led the development, commissioning
and operation of Rockwood’s Salar de Atacama project. Morales’ 36 years of experience make him one
of the most important pieces of the puzzle. As summarized from Paes-Braga’s comments, the
importance of operations is two-fold; Firstly, it's a race to production, as there is a huge demand curve
in the lithium space. Secondly, operations have proven to be extremely challenging for lithium
companies, which makes the strength of the pillar of operations just that much more vital. Paes-Braga
says he considers the group of people at Lithium X to be the “best team in the business.” I, too, think
that this A-list of people is a check in the right column for the future of Lithium X.
From my research, the Lithium X team is built on a strong foundation, which sets it apart from its peers.
In a space where demand is accelerating, a strong team will most certainly be needed to survive and
prosper.
Argentina and its Past
If you're skeptical about Argentina, you're not alone. For close to 2 decades, the actions of Argentina's
government have caused a lot of skepticism, internationally. Most criticism, however, is directed at the
actions of its most recent former leader, Christine Fernandez de Kirchner.
A brief summary of some of these actions are:
2001’s $100 billion sovereign debt default, the largest in history.
Heavy government spending in social programs by both Nestor Kirchner (President 2003 to
2007) and his wife, Christine (President 2007 to 2015).
In 2012, Argentina’s congress nationalized Repsol’s (a Spanish oil company) portion in the
national energy company, YPF. Kirchner defended the move by stating, “it failed to boost oil and
natural gas production needed to keep up with local demand” (Reuters)
Nationalized private pension funds, known as “Las Administradoras de Fondos de Jubilaciones y
Pensiones (AFJP)” (Wiki).
Kirchner fostered relationships with China, Venezuela and Iran.
Nisman Allegations - Kirchner and Argentine Foreign Minister, Hector Timerman, were allegedly
involved in a plot to cover up Iran’s role in the 1994 bombing of the Amia Jewish Community
Centre, in which 85 people were killed. Alberto Nisman, who was investigating this bombing,
made the allegations against Kirchner and Timerman. Days after the allegations, Nisman was
found dead in his apartment.
Raised taxes on exports, which the government later overturned, due to mass protests.
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A New Beginning
With newly elected Argentine President, Mauricio Macri, now in power, the international perception of
Argentina appears to be changing. In his inaugural speech, Macri stated,
“Confrontation has taken us down the wrong paths...We have to remove conflict from the center of the
stage and replace it with meeting points.” (New York Times)
Macri has outlined a pro-business agenda for his new government, which he has started to execute
since his inauguration. His pro-business agenda is headlined with:
Filling his cabinet with former business executives.
Cutting export taxes, most importantly on mineral products.
Attracting foreign investment, most importantly repairing the relationship with the United
States. As reported by Reuters on March 24, 2016, Barrack Obama stated, “Argentina is re-
assuming its traditional leadership role in the region and around the world." From the same
article, Reuters reports, “The American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina said U.S. firms
would invest $2.3 billion in Argentina over the 18 months, including more than $100 million
each from General Motors Co., Dow Chemical Co., AES Corp. and Ford Motor Co”
These are great signs for there being a change in global perspective, one that will only help
future investment in the country and make it safer for our investment dollars.
In my conversation with Paes-Braga, he also pointed out that Matysek’s last 2 companies had assets in
Argentina, more specifically Salta province, which is the location of their flagship asset, Salar de Los
Angeles. His successful navigation of the old Argentine regime should place Lithium X in a good position
with this asset.
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Clayton Valley, Nevada, United States
Source: Lithium X Energy Corporation
Nevada is considered by most to be a top tier jurisdiction for mining. Mostly known for its vast gold
reserves in the Carlin Trend, Nevada has a long history of being a mining-friendly state with a workforce
that knows the business.
Nevada is particularly advantageous for a lithium company, as billionaire, Elon Musk, has already said
that Tesla will seek American lithium sources first for their Gigafactory needs in the future. Lithium X
owns the largest land package in the region, surrounding Albemarle’s producing Silver Peak lithium brine
operation.
From a jurisdictional standpoint, both of Lithium X’s properties appear to be in places where there is a
bright future for mining.
PUSH – In my conversation with Paes-Braga, he also mentioned that Lithium X’s goal is to build a billion
dollar company, which will mean bringing Salar de Los Angeles to production and being active on M&A
opportunities that will be a good fit for the future of Lithium X. In my opinion, if they continue to
choose properties like they did with the first two, this will be a huge positive for the company's future.
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Flagship Asset - Salar de Los Angeles, Argentina
Source: Lithium X Energy Corporation
Lithium X released an upgraded mineral resource estimate on August 30, 2016. The NI 43-101 resource
estimate was prepared by FloSolutions and the results are as follows:
Indicated (all in tonnes) Lithium = 194,860 @ 501 mg/L, Potassium = 2,143,491 @ 5,512 mg/L and Boron
= 216,807 @ 556 mg/L
Inferred (all in tonnes) Lithium = 189,130 @ 410 mg/L, Potassium= 2,068,161 @ 4,489 mg/L and Boron =
232,601 @ 505 mg/L
(See news release for further reference)
This upgraded mineral resource estimate is icing on the cake for an already valuable asset. On December
22, 2011, a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) was completed on the property by SRK consulting,
in which the following was found:
Values based on USD $5,000/tonne Lithium Carbonate, 15,000 tonnes/year lithium carbonate
(LC) and approximately 51,000 tonnes of potash (KCl)
Net Present Value (NPV) with an 8% discount rate – USD $561 million (pre-tax) with a 34%
internal rate of return (IRR)
When production is increased to 25,000/year LC and 85,000/year KCl, the NPV value explodes
even higher, NPV with an 8% discount rate – USD $964 million (pre-tax) with a 36% IRR
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Source: Lithium X Energy Corporation
Given that Lithium X’s current market cap sits around $115 million (CDN), and the updated mineral
resource estimate completed in August of this year, there is a lot of upside potential in the stock price -
and we have yet to value Clayton Valley.
PUSH – In my conversation with Paes-Braga, he mentioned that the next steps for the Salar de Los
Angeles project include permitting and construction of the pond facilities. Successful permitting and
construction, which is slated for completion in 2017, should provide good push for the share price.
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Clayton Valley, Nevada, United States
PUSH – The Clayton Valley property is currently being drilled. Paes-Braga expects that the results should
arrive before the end of the year. This could definitely provide some push for the stock if the drill results
are successful.
Source: Lithium X Energy Corporation
Cashed Up and Ready to Execute
At the time of this report, Lithium X had a market capitalization of around $115 million. On July 13,
2016, Lithium X announced the closing of a private placement of 6,060,603 shares, at a price of $1.65
per share for gross proceeds of $10,000,000. To note, these will become free trading on November 14,
2016. Also, 300,000 incentive stock options have been granted to certain directors and consultants of
the Company. The options are exercisable at $1.65 for a period of 5 years, subject to regulatory
approval. See the report for further details. This financing gives them around $18 million dollars in the
bank, which should allow them to execute their 2nd stage of development.
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Lithium X Comparables
To really gain perspective on Lithium X’s potential value, we need to compare it to some of its peers.
Specifically, I would like to show you how it stacks up against Orocobre Limited and Nemaska Lithium.
Orocobre Limited is an Australian based lithium producer, and is listed on both the ASX and TSX. Its
flagship Olaroz lithium project in Argentina is a great comparison for Lithium X’s Salar de Los Angeles
project.
Olaroz Brine Project Summary: (Information taken from Orocobre Limited News Release – Definitive
Feasbility Study)
After-tax NPV @ 7.5% discount rate – USD $449 million with a 27% IRR
Production Rate of 17,500 tpa
6.4 Mt (Measured – 1.44 Mt / Indicated – 5.0 Mt) lithium @ 690 mg/L
19.3 Mt potassium @ 5,730 mg/L
As you can see, Orocobre used a different discount rate and expressed their values in after tax figures
rather than those used in Salar de Los Angeles’ 2013 FEA. Overall, however, you can see that the Olaroz
project has some very good numbers, something which the market is recognizing with their almost CDN
$800 million MCAP. While Lithium X’s Salar de Los Angeles project is not quite as large, it has very close
lithium concentrations and a solid 25,000 tpa proposed production rate. The market hasn’t recognized
this yet, leaving a lot of room to be re-evaluated to the upside, especially with permitting and pond
construction upcoming.
Nemaska Lithium is a Canadian based lithium producer and is listed on the TSX. Its flagship property,
Whabouchi, is a lithium hard-rock deposit in Quebec, which is slated for production in 2019. As you
already know, there’s a big difference between a hard-rock mine and a brine project, but they’re still
comparable as far as the numbers go.
Whabouchi Project Summary: (Information taken from Nemaska Lithium website)
Pre-Tax NPV @ 8% discount rate USD $1.5 billion with a 37.7% IRR
Production Rate of 28,000 tpa lithium hydroxide, 3250 kt of lithium carbonate
Combined open pit and underground resources – 27.3 Mt @ 1.46% Li2O Proven & Probable
Nemaska’s 2016 Feasibility study was conducted with a higher $/t selling price than their 2014
study, which was USD $ 9,500/t lithium hydroxide, and USD $7,000/t lithium carbonate
Nemaska’s 2016 FEA study reflects lithium’s current selling prices, which is also reflected in the
company’s MCAP. Salar de Los Angeles’ FEA was completed by a former owner in 2013, with a lithium
carbonate price of USD $5,000/tonne. Change that to Nemaska’s FEA lithium carbonate price of USD
$7000/t, an almost 50% increase in selling price, and I think it’s obvious that there’s upside potential.
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Also to note, Nemaska has an MCAP of close to CDN $500 million, which is nearly 4 times higher than
Lithium X, again showing the potential in share price appreciation.
Also, in my conversation with Paes-Braga, he mentioned that in the coming months, they will be listing
the Company on the Nasdaq, giving Lithium X greater exposure.
Concluding Remarks
The world’s governments are working toward tougher and tougher clean air legislation, like the 450
Scenario. These actions will make it that much more expensive to use carbon-emitting utilities.
Especially in North America, the solution is to reduce the amount of carbon produced by fossil fuel
burning vehicles, and to move to battery powered electric cars.
A surge in demand for these lithium-laced batteries will have a ripple effect on the lithium market,
rewarding those who got a head start on the clean air trend and invested early. Because this trend is
already in motion and politically driven, for me, it's not a question of if it will cause an increase in
demand for lithium, but how well does a hockey bag fit in the trunk of a Tesla Roadster?!
Now, let's be clear, the future of the lithium market won't be without challenges; lithium deposit
jurisdiction, a possible future supply glut, and lithium brine operation blunders are common barriers to
success. But, a junior company like Lithium X Energy Corporation, which was built on a solid foundation
and, to me, is more than equipped to navigate the challenges of the lithium business, has the best shot
at bringing their assets to production.
Opportunities like this one don’t come along every day. When compared to its peers, Lithium X offers
incredible value, and I believe it’s only going to become more valuable when the lithium market
explodes. I know I use this line a lot, but in this case, Lithium X is a great example of how money can be
made on the delta between price and value.
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Brian Leni P.Eng
Founder - Junior Stock Review
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Disclaimer
The following is not an investment recommendation, it is an investment idea. I am not a
certified investment professional, nor do I know you and your individual investment needs.
Please perform your own due diligence to decide whether this is a company and sector that is
best suited for your personal investment criteria. I do not own Lithium X Energy Corporation
stock. All Lithium X Energy Corporation analytics were taken from their website and press
release. Lithium X Energy Corporation is a Sponsor of the marketing and distribution of this
report.
All Rights Reserved – Copyright 2016 – www.juniorstockreview.com
Appendix
Sources:
Albemarle
Deutsche Bank Markets Research, Lithium 101, Hooking, Kan, Young, Terry and Begleiter. Published May
9 2016
FMC Corporation
Insideevs.com
International Energy Agency, 2016 Key World Energy Statistics. Published OECD/IEA 2016
IEA homepage
Nemaska Lithium
New York Times
Orocobre Limited
Reuters
Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries
Sociedad Quimca Y Minera De Chile
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
Definition:
"Reserves—A concentration of naturally occurring solid, liquid, or gaseous material in or on the Earth’s
crust, in such form and amount that economic extraction of a commodity from the concentration is
currently or potentially feasible" (USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2016 Appendix C)