Potential Timber Production Estimate from the …...The private hardwood plantation estate has been...

Potential Timber Production Estimate from the Tasmanian Private Plantation Estate Prepared for: Independent Verification Group Prepared by: pitt&sherry and Esk Mapping & GIS Services February 2012

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pitt&sherry ref: LN11278L001 Rep 31P Rev04.docx/SR/as

Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 1

1. Introduction ............................................................................................. 4

1.1 Objective ....................................................................................... 4 2. The Process ............................................................................................. 4

2.1 Outline .......................................................................................... 4 2.2 Private Plantation Forest Area .............................................................. 4 2.3 Assignment of Site Productivity to Forest Areas .......................................... 5 2.4 Forest Product Yields ......................................................................... 7 2.5 Woodflow Outputs ............................................................................. 7 2.6 Assignment of Regimes for Wood Flow Modelling ........................................ 8

3. Results – Solid Wood Log Products (Maximum Potential) ........................................ 9 3.1 Plantation Pine ................................................................................ 9 3.2 Potential Hardwood Plantation Products ................................................. 10

4. Results - Category 1, 3 and 8 Sawlog Yield from the Identified Solid Wood Log Resource 15 5. Previous Timber Resource Modelling ............................................................... 18 6. Conclusion .............................................................................................. 19 7. References ............................................................................................. 20 8. Appendices – Plantation Product Scenario Log Classes ......................................... 22

8.1 P.radiata Plantation Products .............................................................. 23 8.2 E.nitens Plantation Products (current management scenario) ........................ 24 8.3 E.nitens Plantation Products (Harvest at age 30 scenario) ............................ 25 8.4 E.nitens Plantation Products (Harvest at age 40 scenario) ............................ 26 8.5 E.globulus Plantation Products (current management scenario) ..................... 27 8.6 E.globulus Plantation Products (Harvest at age 30 scenario) .......................... 28 8.7 E.globulus Plantation Products (Clear fall at age 40)................................... 29 8.8 Hardwood plantation solid wood logs – harvest at age 40 and cut solid wood logs to

25cm SED. ..................................................................................... 30 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1. Distribution of private plantation forests and selected sample sites ..................... 6 Figure 2. Potential Private Plantation Pine Products ................................................... 9 Figure 3. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (current regime) ...................... 11 Figure 4. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood log products by species. .......... 11 Figure 5. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (scenario 2a) ........................... 13 Figure 6. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation solid wood logs by species (scenario 2a) ..... 13 Figure 7. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (scenario 2b) ........................... 14 Figure 8. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation solid wood logs by species (scenario 2b) ..... 14 Figure 9. Sawlog yield with age (pruned stands) ....................................................... 17 Figure 10. The distribution of the hardwood plantation solid-wood resource in Tasmania by Solid Wood Log Results ...................................................................................... 19 Table 1.Private Plantation Forest Areas to end December 2010 as modelled ...................... 5 Table 2. Commercially usable log percentages (Tasmanian Grades 1,3,8). ........................ 16 Table 3. Expected availability of Cat 1,3 or 8 sawlogs ................................................ 17 Table 4. Wood flow projection (Private Forests Tasmania, 2005) ................................... 18 © 2012 pitt&sherry This document is and shall remain the property of pitt&sherry. The document may only be used for the purposes for which it was commissioned and in accordance with the Terms of Engagement for the commission. Unauthorised use of this document in any form is prohibited. Authorised by: _____________________________ Date: 10 February 2012

Steve Edwards

pitt&sherry ref: LN11278L001 Rep 31P Rev04.docx/SR/as 1

Executive Summary This report provides an estimate of potential log volumes that may be expected to arise from harvest of Tasmania’s private softwood and hardwood plantation estates. The estimations for the private softwood estate have been derived under projected current silvicultural management practices and harvest regimes principally aimed at maximising clear wood and solid wood log products. The private hardwood plantation estate has been modelled under three scenarios:

Scenario 1: A current scenario whereby the majority of the plantation estate has been subject to silviculture and short rotation management practices producing principally pulpwood with limited areas of the estate (estimated at approximately 1 %) subject to management practices enhancing potential solid wood log production

Scenario 2a: A scenario with management practices and silvicultural processes implemented in the very near future for maximising solid wood log products at a harvest age of 30 years, and

Scenario 2b: Maximising potential solid wood logs at a harvest age of 40 years. Plantation areas analysed were provided by the Australian Government Department of Fisheries, Forestry and Agriculture (DAFF) based on information compiled current to the end of 2010. The data provided was aggregated by planting age and species but spatially simplified. Verification checks on the area supplied suggests that DAFF simplified areas may overstate the actual planted areas by a margin of around 2%.

This assessment comprises two phases of calculations, the first assessing potential available solid wood logs based on size classes and the second assesses what proportion of these are suited to sawlog categories 1, 3 and 8.

Potential Private Plantation Pine Products

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

Total Volume (m3 / yr) 32,700 37,500 71,400 85,000 251,500 116,800 148,000

Total solid wood logs 16,600 21,600 27,800 30,600 61,400 25,300 59,600

Total Pulp 16,100 15,900 43,600 54,400 190,100 91,500 88,400

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000Potential Private Plantation Pine Products

Area (Ha) Planting Year

Species <1966 1966‐1970

1971‐1975

1976‐1980

1981‐1985

1986‐1990

1991‐1995

1996‐2000

2001‐2005

2006‐2010

Grand Total

E. globulus 7 3 108 138 262 534 6,746 2,375 2,048 12,220

E. nitens 14 120 1,709 9,343 30,920 54,394 84,010 180,511

P. radiata 3 7 41 253 328 445 403 1,509 484 5,718 9,192

Grand Total 3 14 44 375 586 2,417 10,281 39,175 57,253 91,776 201,923


As indicated in the above figure, the private pine plantation resource provides an increasing volume of solid wood log products, peaking from 2031.

Scenario 1: Potential Private Plantation Hardwood products – Current Regimes

Under current management and silvicultural practices of short rotation harvest with only limited thinning or pruning estimated production of solid wood logs with small end diameter exceeding 30cm is modelled to be negligible.

As indicated above, total product volume availability is estimated to exceed 2 million m3 per year gradually increasing to peak at just over 2.5 million m3 per year for the five period commencing 2022.

Scenario 2a: Potential Private Plantation Hardwood products – Maximise Solid Wood Logs with Postponed Harvest to 30 Year Age

Under a scenario whereby silvicultural and management regimes aimed at maximising solid wood log availability through pruning and thinning is implemented for all age appropriate forests with a postponed harvest to 30 years of age produces a significant increase in solid wood log production. The solid wood logs do not become available in significant volumes until after 2031. With active management of the forest resource and delayed harvest the total hardwood plantation product peak volumes exceed 4 million m3 per year during the five year period from 2032 to 2036.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

Total Volume (m3/yr) 2,118,500 2,283,800 2,574,800 639,900 306,400 85,200

Total solid wood logs 400 1,300 4,000 ‐ ‐ ‐

Total Pulp 2,118,100 2,282,500 2,570,800 639,900 306,400 85,200

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(current regime)

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

Total Volume (m3/yr) 34,800 176,700 990,600 2,951,600 4,175,900 3,169,700

Total Solid wood logs 500 1,300 13,000 46,600 113,800 100,700

Total Pulp 34,300 175,400 977,600 2,905,000 4,062,100 3,069,000

‐

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(Proactive silvicultural management and harvest at 30 yr age)


Scenario 2b: Potential Private Plantation Hardwood Products – Maximise Solid Wood Logs with Postponed Harvest to 40 Year Age.

When harvest is delayed to a forest age of 40 years the total solid wood log volumes increase significantly, though the products do not become available in large volumes until after 2036. For either scenario 2a or 2b to be realised, active silvicultural management including thinning and pruning would need to be implemented in the very near future on all forests for which the processes could be applied.

Sawlog (Category 1, 3 & 8) Potential from Private Plantation – Final Projected Volumes

When the available solid wood log volume is assessed for product categorisation based on the silvicultural regime (pruned or unpruned) and using the modelled 30 cm small end diameter the available useable volumes are further reduced from the current essentially unmanaged forests. With pro-active management and delayed harvest the volume of category 1, 3 and 8 sawlogs significantly increases though availability in large volumes is delayed.

Potential Plantation

Hardwood Cat 1,3 and 8 Sawlogs

m3 per year

Scenario 1 current

management

Scenario 2a. Maximise thinning/ pruning, harvest at

30yrs

Scenario 2b Maximise thinning/ pruning, harvest at

40yrs

2012 ‐ 2016 60 72 24

2017 ‐ 2021 222 224 21

2022 ‐ 2026 676 2,202 107

2027 ‐ 2031 ‐ 7,921 528

2032 ‐ 2036 ‐ 19,345 5,226

2037 ‐ 2041 ‐ 61,487 18,251

2042 ‐ 2046 ‐ ‐ 42,098

2047 ‐ 2051 ‐ ‐ 151,778

There is no indication of any significant volume of minor species private plantation logs. The volume of peelers, given the requirement for relatively knot free logs, can be taken to be any percentage of the identified final category 1, 3 and 8 resource that may be diverted to such.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

2047 ‐2051

Total Volume (m3/yr) 3,900 10,400 27,300 203,400 1,153,900 3,440,600 4,915,700 3,812,700

Total Solid wood logs 100 100 700 3,100 30,800 107,400 247,600 229,900

Total Pulp 3,800 10,300 26,600 200,300 1,123,100 3,333,200 4,668,100 3,582,800

‐

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(Proactive silivultural management and harvest at 40 yr age)


1. Introduction This review has been commissioned by the Independent Verification Group (IVG) working on the Inter Governmental Forest Agreement (IGFA) in the process of negotiation between Tasmania and Australian Government. The review is independent of Tasmanian government functions and responsibilities. This project provides high level modelling of potential timber availability from the private plantation resource based on mapped forest areas and modelling based on interpreted likely current and potential future, harvest management.

1.1 Objective The objective of the review is to provide an estimate of potential sawlog availability from Tasmania’s private plantation estate. The assessment required review of publically available information and data sources combined with industry knowledge and experience and understanding of the current state of industry. In particular, the review is seeking to estimate for the private plantation estate;

The available forest area and potential useable timber volumes

The potential quality of the resource and uses to which the forest log products may be suited

The variation over time and, if possible

Indications of commitments in future use for the resource

2. The Process

2.1 Outline The process to estimate the potential available wood flows comprised the following major tasks:-

Obtain an updated forest area dataset for assessment

For each forest stand estimate potential productivity of the site

Based on potential productivity apply appropriate regimes and product yields for forest outputs. Three scenarios were applied for projection of wood flows;

A harvest scenario based on high level understanding of the current owner’s intent and understanding of silvicultural regimes previously and currently applied to the forest resource

Two scenarios maximising potential for sawn timber assuming proactive management of all suitable forest stands

Assess potential suitability of products available under the above wood flow scenarios

2.2 Private Plantation Forest Area Private Forests Tasmania (PFT) is the Tasmanian government authority for maintenance and update of the private forest information datasets. PFT provide compiled Tasmanian forest information for integration into the Australian Government forest inventory datasets on an annual basis. Given time and administrative constraints, comprehensive datasets were unavailable from Private Forests Tasmania though a suitable dataset was provided from the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).


The information provided by DAFF in December 2011 is based on information provided by PFT current to the end of December 2010, but which has been aggregated and summarised by forest species and plant year and spatially simplified. Verification checks on the area supplied indicate that DAFF simplification results in potential overstatement of actual planted areas by a margin of around 2%. This report does not include data on Forestry Tasmania / Timberland managed 46,000 hectare pine resource for which we understand the transfer to NewForests was announced in mid December 2011 and scheduled to occur during the compilation of this report. It is understood that those forests are covered by the FT dataset previously supplied to the IVG. The following table presents the information representing Tasmania’s private plantation forest estate as provided by DAFF and modelled for this study.

Table 1.Private Plantation Forest Areas to end December 2010 as modelled

DAFF records indicate in addition to the plantation forest areas in the above table, mapped areas also include;

13,882 ha of fallow land

Approximately 4000 ha of unknown age eucalypt plantation and

Approximately 3000ha of unknown age pine plantation, plus

170 ha of unspecified or minor species This high level review excluded the additional areas from potential sawlog estimation. No discounts have been applied to the areas provided for potential reductions in harvestable area when compared to areas planted. Discounts can occur through environmental, legal, operational and other constraints. In general, however, given substantial up-front costs in establishment of plantations it was previously considered uncommon for areas to be established as plantation which are unavailable for harvest. The changing nature of the forest sector and the introductions of opportunities for alternate long term value of plantation forests for carbon sequestration or other environmental benefits are likely however to alter the availability of plantation forests to supply harvestable products1. This may reduce future yields below those identified in this review.

2.3 Assignment of Site Productivity to Forest Areas Broad productivity classes were applied to the plantation forest dataset based on industry standard parameters reflecting rainfall, elevation and geological characteristics consistent with land capability assessment methodology and groupings documented in the Tasmania Social and Economic Report produced as a report component to the Tasmanian Community Forest Agreement of May 2005 (DAFF, 2005). 1 A recent survey of 64 farm owners indicated that the most likely use of property farm forestry areas in future was as shelter/windbreaks (55%) followed by biodiversity and then wood production with 46% of respondents indicating it was likely in future they would establish farm forestry areas for carbon storage and trading (Defenderfer,2010).

Area (Ha) Planting Year

Species <1966 1966‐1970

1971‐1975

1976‐1980

1981‐1985

1986‐1990

1991‐1995

1996‐2000

2001‐2005

2006‐2010

Grand Total

E. globulus 7 3 108 138 262 534 6,746 2,375 2,048 12,220

E. nitens 14 120 1,709 9,343 30,920 54,394 84,010 180,511

P. radiata 3 7 41 253 328 445 403 1,509 484 5,718 9,192

Grand Total 3 14 44 375 586 2,417 10,281 39,175 57,253 91,776 201,923


As documented in DAFF (2005) the land capability characterisation is aggregated and modified based on input from a range of contributors including Laffan (1993), Osler et al (1996), Lindenmeyer et al (1996) and Neilsen (1990). Soil textures, depth and nutrient status used in assessment of site indices for basaltic, doleritic and granitic derived soils were consistent with Laffan & McIntosh (2005) and Laffan et al (2003). A stratified sample of 50 sites for eucalypt plantations and 15 for pine were selected representing a broad geographically and climatically dispersed cross-section of the assigned productivity classes as a verification of the suitability of the assigned classes and for generation of representative yield tables. Figure 1 following illustrates the distribution of the private plantation forest areas and indicates the representative sample locations.

Figure 1. Distribution of private plantation forests and selected sample sites

Yield and growth results from each of the representative sample sites were used for all similar plantation areas to provide full tables of yield for private plantation forests.


2.4 Forest Product Yields Forest product yields for the various eucalypt plantation forests, consistent with the above scenarios, were derived by applying appropriate growth models and harvest regimes for Tasmanian eucalypt and pine plantation forests as presented in the Private Forests Tasmania (PFT) tool, the Farm Forestry Toolbox (FFT) (Private Forests Tasmania, 2010). The Farm Forestry Toolbox (FFT) is a collection of tools for assisting managers of shelter belts, plantations or native forests. The tools have been developed for a range of applications including estimation of forest growth, standing tree volumes and cut log volumes. The FFT contains “a combination of well-tested empirical and process-based growth models” (Beadle et al 2011) and the growth modelling and product outputs were generated using the process model, 3-PG within the FFT. 3-PG predicts stand development using simple sub-models of key processes determining growth, and according to Beadle et al (2011) is the most widely used process-based model for predicting forest and plantation growth and has been calibrated for P. radiata and E. globulus. We conducted a detailed comparison of the options available and chose 3-PG because it presented an intermediate result without any anomolies under the different scenarios. The climates used were the existing climates for the identified coupes. As described in the previous section, the modelled eucalypt forest scenarios are based on regimes consistent with current management practices with the alternative scenarios reflecting potential future regimes. Pine harvest regime and product segregation is consistent with the industry defaults applied in the FFT and assumed that silvicultural practices have been appropriately implemented. To provide indications of potential sawlog products for the scenarios modelled, plantation eucalypt pruned solid wood logs were specified as 2.4m lengths, knotty solid wood logs as 3.6m lengths and the resulting product volumes output in 5 cm small end diameter classes. Pulpwood logs are specified as 2.4m log lengths.

2.5 Woodflow Outputs Modelling to estimate potential woodflows was undertaken by applying the above scenarios. Modelling applied an age appropriate harvest regime smoothed over five year periods to provide an indication of longer term wood flow that may be anticipated from the resource. In practice, however, harvest regimes will vary according to site specific growth factors, market and economic considerations and will differ from that modelled. Attempting to provide yearly numbers would be potentially misleading. Variations in actual vs projected growth rates and harvest schedules based on practical and commercial realities could make accurate data on intentions very inaccurate in reality. We think it is reasonable to aggregate the data into five year periods to present an averaged woodflow indication and smoothed output. While planting ages can be accurately presented in actual years, portraying the harvest product outputs by year implies a precision and knowledge of exact harvest schedules that we do not have and the assumed projections cannot provide. No attempt has been made at smoothing the wood supply to meet potential market and operational constraints given current economic uncertainties. Replanting was not included - this reflects commercial reality at this point in time - the economics of the industry is such that these areas would not be replanted. The only replanting that may be done may be for pulp at short rotation with effectively no sawlogs produced.


2.6 Assignment of Regimes for Wood Flow Modelling Wood flow modelling was undertaken investigating three potential forest management scenarios.

1. A scenario with limited active management of the forest silviculture post establishment for the eucalypt forests but with active management of pine forests. This harvest regime was developed based on anticipated industry practice assuming a regular market and acceptable economic conditions. However, given the current local market conditions and financial environment there is no clear indication of harvest intent.

2. Two scenarios whereby all forests are proactively managed through application of silvicultural practices to maximise the recovery of clear wood and solid wood log, where appropriate treatment could be applied. Treatments applied include thinning if the forest age was currently less than or equal to eight years of age with pruning where the plantation was less than or equal to four years of age. Scenario 2a represents these forests with a clearfall age of 30 years while 2b represents harvest of the forests at an age of 40years.

While neither the unmanaged or the highly proactively managed scenarios can be guaranteed to represent actual outcomes over the next few decades the options present likely bounds for the wood-flow projections.

2.6.1 Scenario 1 – Active Management of Softwood Plantations, Limited Active Management of Eucalypt Plantations Under this scenario the forest product recovery was modelled assuming high level potential owner intent regimes representing primarily pulp production for eucalypt products and a mix of clear wood, solid wood logs and pulp logs for pine. Australian Bureau of Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) figures indicate that state-wide (including public land) approximately 15% of eucalypt plantation forests are actively managed through thinning and pruning (Gavran and Parsons, 2011). From assessment of Forestry Tasmania information (FT, 2011) it is apparent the vast majority of active management of the Tasmanian plantation hardwood forests is undertaken by FT. It is clear from industry experience and discussion with industry sources that active silvicultural practices were generally only applied to appropriate age private plantation forests until the cessation of Managed Investment Scheme (MIS) forest establishment activities towards the end of the last decade. Small farm forest holders may implement active silvicultural management to enhance potential solid wood log recovery but these are considered to represent a minor component of the private plantation estate and regimes could not be verified. Only a small component (2000 ha) of the private eucalypt plantation estate is identified as thinned or pruned and has consequently been modelled as a solid wood log regime. Pine plantations are actively managed for a mix of pulp, solid wood log and clear wood and were modelled accordingly. For similar reasoning to that applied in silvicultural management assumptions, the forest wood flow modelling has not incorporated replanting in future forest resource under this scenario. The absence of replanting is also consistent with our current understanding. The modelling undertaken provides an indication of potential solid wood log availability from the current standing resource under interpreted management practices based on current market and economic conditions.


2.6.2 Scenario 2 – Active Management of Plantations Modelling has been undertaken under a scenario of active management of the plantation forests assuming two different harvest ages (30 year and 40 year clearfall ages as scenarios 2a and 2b respectively). Under these scenarios the forest product recovery was modelled assuming maximum pro-active management to enhance the output of clear-wood and solid wood logs from the private plantation estate, irrespective of the current owner intent regimes. These scenarios applied pruning and/or thinning from 2013 where age appropriate benefits could be obtained, to maximise solid wood log production and extended rotation ages to maximise tree volumes. Remaining plantations able to achieve a suitable log size, but inappropriate for pruning or thinning due to age constraints under these scenarios are also assessed with the postponed harvest schedules. These scenarios are considered to demonstrate potential maximum solid wood log recoveries achievable. The actual quality of sawlogs achievable is discussed in later sections. To be effective, active management would be required to be implemented in the very near future.

3. Results – Solid Wood Log Products (Maximum Potential)

3.1 Plantation Pine The private plantation pine estate comprises approximately 9000 hectares dominated by recent plantings. The estimated potential timber products available are presented in the following figure (figure 2) summarised by five year periods. A single scenario has been modelled under the assumed existing management regime intended to maximise clear wood and solid wood logs. To generate a maximum number of potential logs the modelling assumed logs suitable for solid wood log are cut to 3.6m lengths while pulpwood is cut to 2.4m lengths. Products have been segregated to pulpwood if the log small end diameter (SED) is less than 30cm. The modelling does not incorporate replant areas following harvest2 and makes no attempt to smooth wood flows to meet operational (supply and demand) constraints which is considered consistent with current economic uncertainties.

Figure 2. Potential Private Plantation Pine Products

2 Replanting would add significant volumes to projected woodflows.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

Total Volume (m3 / yr) 32,700 37,500 71,400 85,000 251,500 116,800 148,000

Total solid wood logs 16,600 21,600 27,800 30,600 61,400 25,300 59,600

Total Pulp 16,100 15,900 43,600 54,400 190,100 91,500 88,400

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000Potential Private Plantation Pine Products


Key points are

the private pine plantation resource provides an increasing volume of solid wood log products, peaking from 2031

More detail is provided on the estimated timber products by log classes in appendix 8.1. The solid wood MAI that can be derived from the above figures is approximately 11, which is clearly lower than would be expected for standing volume peak MAI. This is to be expected. The growth rates used and harvest regime applied have been the industry defaults per the FFT appropriate for the sites on which the resource has been established. Peak growth rates measured as standing volumes will be significantly higher than the averaged growth rate determined from recoverable volumes at harvest. Site indices (estimated peak growth rate at a given age – often 15yrs) for the pine resource areas would support these sites as appropriate for softwood. Additionally thinning volumes and the volume of product from thinning operations was NOT included in the total volumes we have graphed and these would increase the calculated MAI slightly. PFT modelling and Gunns optimised pulp modelling used Woodstock (PFT 2005, Gunns 2006, De Fegely 2007), a sophisticated linear programming tool, to generate absolutely optimised outputs (inevitably maximising pulpwood). Essentially in our modelling we could have produced bigger numbers by manipulating a range of inputs (including the selected growth model) however we consider that the outputs produced are a reasonable reflection of reality.

3.2 Potential Hardwood Plantation Products Modelling was undertaken for three potential scenarios for management of private hardwood plantations as indicated. The modelling did not incorporate replanting of areas following harvest, which may significantly increase projected harvest volumes, and made no attempt to smooth wood flows to meet operational (supply and demand) constraints which is considered consistent with current economic uncertainties.

A generic range of harvest ages (15 to 30 years old) was applied as appropriate for the broad site quality strata modelled and as such the growth rates achieved for any specific site may not have reached, or even passed beyond, the optimum harvest age that would be applied under intense operational management and an active market. Again this potentially lowers the projected annual harvest volumes modelled, especially compared to those achievable under a multi-rotation scenario. Potential product segregation was modelled regardless of possible owners intent (for example the vast majority of private hardwood plantation has been established by Gunns under pulpwood regimes with a proposed pulp mill as a potential intended destination – Gunns, 2006). To generate a maximum number of potential logs the modelling assumed logs suitable for pruned solid wood logs are cut to 2.4m, knotty solid wood logs are cut to 3.6m lengths while pulpwood is cut to 2.4m lengths. Products have been segregated to pulpwood if the log small end diameter (SED) is less than 30cm. Volumes are indicated as cubic metres (m3) per year averaged over five year periods.

3.2.1 Scenario 1: Current Management Regimes Under this scenario the majority of the private hardwood plantations are modelled with short rotation harvest schedules and limited silvicultural management. While active silvicultural management, including thinning and pruning, to enhance plantation solid wood log products has been undertaken on Tasmania’s hardwood plantations, the vast majority of active management has been implemented by Forestry Tasmania on public land outside the scope of this review.


In this scenario only 2000 ha of the hardwood plantation estate are modelled as having been subject to thinning, principally comprising the Forest Enterprises Australia (FEA) plantations established up to and including the 2000 plant year.

Figure 3. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (current regime)

Figure 4. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood log products by species.

Key points:

Total product volumes are estimated to consistently exceed 2 million m3 per year gradually increasing to peak at just over 2.5 million m3 per year for the five year period commencing 2022.

With no replanting, the product volumes rapidly decline following the 2026 peak.

Under the essentially unmanaged pulpwood regime resource, modelling indicates only minor availability of solid wood logs exceeding a small end diameter of 30cm.

Of the total solid wood log, with small end diameter greater than or equal to 30cm (K30 & larger), produced under the ‘Current’ scenario:

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

Total Volume (m3/yr) 2,118,500 2,283,800 2,574,800 639,900 306,400 85,200

Total solid wood logs 400 1,300 4,000 ‐ ‐ ‐

Total Pulp 2,118,100 2,282,500 2,570,800 639,900 306,400 85,200

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(current regime)

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

E.globulus Solid wood logs 200 0 0 0

E.nitens Solid wood logs 200 1,300 4,000 0 0 0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood logs by species(current regime)

E.globulus Solid wood logs

E.nitens Solid wood logs


73.9% by volume was derived from the 2000ha (1% by area) assigned as the Forest Enterprises Australia solid wood log regime areas (i.e. previously stated actual solid wood log intent);

23.8% by volume was derived from ‘pulp’ plantations planted prior to 1990 (0.9% by area) that should have been harvested prior to 2012 and were modelled with postponed harvest ages, well outside their actual pulp regime optimum, to fit inside our reporting periods. These areas appear small and isolated in nature, perhaps suggesting they have been left for operational or research trial reasons;

2.3% by volume was derived from ‘pulp’ plantations planted between 1990 & 1993 (0.1% by area) on high quality basaltic soils that could have been harvested prior to 2012 and were also modelled with postponed harvest ages. These areas were not ‘sliver’s and are predominantly located on Gunns’ Surrey Hills estate;

Basically, of the K30 & above solid wood log resource modelled, 73.9% of solid wood log has been established with grower intent for solid wood logs (FEA), 23.8% may be unavailable due to operational issues and the remainder appear to be Gunns plantations with an indicated destination as pulpwood. The site qualities and regimes modelled under the current scenario produced a range of growth rates. Using the 3-PG process growth model, maximum achievable mean annual increments (MAI’s) observed ranged from 27m3/ha/year at age 8 on the best sites to 3m3/ha/yr at age 25 on the poorest sites. Generic application of harvest ages across broad site class strata within the woodflow model produced MAI’s at harvest that ranged from 22m3/ha/year at age 15 on the best sites to 5m3/ha/year at age 30 on the poorest sites with a weighted average growth at harvest across the entire private hardwood estate of approximately 15 m3/ha/year at a weighted average harvest age of 17.4 years. These MAI’s are for total standing volumes. Derived MAI’s for recovered solid wood products are of course lower. More detailed modelling aimed at optimising product growth on individual forest stands within the estate, in particular for pulp production, including replants following harvest, is likely to achieve significantly higher harvest MAI’s and total annual volumes than those modelled in this assessment. The product yields in this assessment are slightly lower than but are broadly consistent with Gunns optimised plantation estate modelling (Gunns,2006 and de Fegely, 2007). Modelling in that situation optimised for pulpwood volumes and used Candy derived growth models (Candy,1997) (producing higher volume outputs than the 3PG models used in this assessment). Sensitivity analysis undertaken investigating altered small end diameter cut-offs very significantly increases solid wood log volumes with reductions of the cut-off to 25cm or smaller (refer to product categories appendices). The high-level nature of this modelling exercise did not allow for intense and active management scenarios to maximise tree growth at harvest age for each and every specific site, which is more likely to happen within an industrial estate. Such management, including more accurate timing of pruning, thinning and harvest for any clearwood and solid wood log silvicultural regimes may result in improved tree diameter increments, allowing a portion of the solid wood logs in the 25cm SED class to achieve the 30cm SED cut-off at harvest. Harvest yields achieved in this assessment are broadly consistent with eucalypt plantation solid wood log productivities between 1.2 and a maximum of 11.7 m3 per hectare per year across a broad range of ages and silvicultural regimes reported by Innes et al (2008). Inclusion of the additional 3000ha of hardwood plantation excluded from the modelling due to unspecified age classes may alter the total and solid wood log wood flows if the forests actually represent older established plantations and have active solid wood log management regimes though this could not be verified.


3.2.2 Scenario 2a: Proactive Silvicultural Management and Postponed Harvest to 30 Yrs Age

Figure 5. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (scenario 2a)

Figure 6. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation solid wood logs by species (scenario 2a)

Key points:

With active management of the forest resource and delayed harvest the total hardwood plantation product volumes increase significantly to a peak exceeding 4 million m3 per year during the five year period from 2032 to 2036.

Solid wood log product volumes anticipated from the scenario increase significantly compared to a ‘current’ pulp regime and exceed 45,000 m3 per year from 2027 peaking at nearly 114,000 m3 per year in the period from 2032 to 2036.

The solid wood log production is dominated by E.nitens reflecting the current planted species.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐ 2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

E.globulus Solid wood logs 200 ‐ 100 4,100 1,000 700

E.nitens Solid wood logs 300 1,300 12,900 42,500 112,800 100,000

‐

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood logs by Species (Proactive silvicultural management and harvest at 30 yr age)

E.globulus Solid wood logs

E.nitens Solid wood logs

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

Total Volume (m3/yr) 34,800 176,700 990,600 2,951,600 4,175,900 3,169,700

Total Solid wood logs 500 1,300 13,000 46,600 113,800 100,700

Total Pulp 34,300 175,400 977,600 2,905,000 4,062,100 3,069,000

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000 Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(Proactive silvicultural management and harvest at 30 yr age)


With no replanting, the product volumes decline following the 2032-2036 peak.

For this scenario to be realised, active management, thinning and pruning would need to be implemented in the very near future on all forests for which the processes could be applied.

3.2.3 Scenario 2b: Proactive Silvicultural Management and Postponed Harvest to 40 Yrs Age.

Figure 7. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products (scenario 2b)

Figure 8. Potential Private Hardwood Plantation solid wood logs by species (scenario 2b)

Key points:

Delay of harvest to increase solid wood log products results in initial low total product volumes increasing to exceed 1 million m3 p.a. by 2032.

From 2032, the total volumes increase significantly from approximately 1 million m3 per year during the period 2032 to 2036 to peak at nearly five million m3 in the period 2042 to 2046.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

2047 ‐2051

Total Volume (m3/yr) 3,900 10,400 27,300 203,400 1,153,900 3,440,600 4,915,700 3,812,700

Total Solid wood logs 100 100 700 3,100 30,800 107,400 247,600 229,900

Total Pulp 3,800 10,300 26,600 200,300 1,123,100 3,333,200 4,668,100 3,582,800

‐

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(Proactive silivultural management and harvest at 40 yr age)

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

2047 ‐ 2051

E.globulus Solid wood logs 100 100 100 100 400 11,600 2,900 1,500

E.nitens Solid wood logs ‐ ‐ 600 3,000 30,400 95,800 244,700 228,400

‐

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood logs by Species(Proactive silvicultural management and harvest at 40 yr age)


Solid wood log availability gradually increases to exceed 100,000m3 per year from 2037 and exceeds 240,000 m3 per year in the period 2042 to 2046 before declining.

The solid wood log production is dominated by E.nitens reflecting the current planted species.

For this scenario to be realised, active management, including thinning and pruning would need to be implemented in the very near future on all forests for which the processes could be applied.

4. Results - Category 1, 3 and 8 Sawlog Yield from the Identified Solid Wood Log Resource The sawmilling usefulness or otherwise of the small log plantation resource has been the subject of a number of very practical studies. While there is immense variability in usefulness because of variability between stands, results for plantation nitens green-sawn board production for a given log diameter and age class may be interpreted as similar to other eucalypt sawlog species. The economic usefulness as distinct from the naked ability to produce sawn board has also been studied and conclusions vary from viability at 25cm SED (E.regnans, Satchell & Turner, 2010) to a more common assumption of 30cm SED (Innes et al., 2008, Beadle et al., 2008). There is clearly a desire to increase sawn board yield and sawn board grade yield by increasing harvest diameter and other authors express useful growing regimes as those producing 40cm SED (Harwood, 2010) - for instance select grade board yield in pruned small eucalypts was seen to double from 20cm SED to 60cm SED (Beadle et al. 2008).

Industry submissions seek even larger logs at around 80cm (FIAT/TCSF 2004) akin to traditional log sizes from regrowth forests. Changes in equipment availability, practical experience and perceptions since 2004 may have softened the industry position towards greater acceptance of the smaller diameter logs. The 30cm SED mark is most likely a reflection of current reality and current capability of a designated small log mill with thin kerf saws. This diameter is reflected in the log classification systems as well as practical large scale commercial outcomes for category 1,3 and 8 sawlogs (Forestry Tasmania 2007). Part of the debate between 30 and 40cm SED viability relates to the sawing pattern and the usefulness (especially during drying) of backsawn as opposed to quartersawn boards (Harwood, 2010). We have retained the 30cm SED limit for this study. (For reference we have modelled a hypothetical situation maximising growth as for scenario 2b, with a forty year age for harvest, and including the potential for economical product yield from much smaller logs with equipment and drying changes suitable for small end diameter logs of 25cm. So as not to detract from the main conclusions of this report the results are presented in appendix 8.8.) Log lengths in classification systems are 3.6m for category 1 and 3 but we note that these were accepted in the large volume Gunns contract (Forestry Tasmania 2007) at 2.4m. Category 8 logs are accepted at 2.4m. For simplicity the assessment of log volume above uses 2.4m for pruned sawlogs and 3.6m for all other potential sawlogs. There is at least one further step to determining the economic usefulness – the performance in the drying phase – and this again has been studied with good applicability to Tasmanian resources. The creation of profitable levels of dry finished product is pivotal to the usefulness of a log. The CRC for Forestry has sponsored a series of studies of which the first (Washusen et al. 2007) did not provide promising results. The latter trials (Blakemore et al. 2010, Blakemore et al. 2010 (b)) were more promising in terms of final board yield and provide no reason to exclude 30cm SED logs on the basis of diameter.


Having settled on a size class the above total solid wood log resource figures were able to be produced. However not all logs in a size class will be able to be used as sawlogs of Category 1, 3 or 8. One of the major issues with Eucalypt plantation dried board yield is the pruning regime. Pictorially this is covered well by Harwood (2010) and also embodied in the subtitle “If you don’t prune it we can’t use it” to Nolan et al. (2005). Eucalypt species currently farmed do not self occlude and knots are not well-held after drying. While the dried wood between knots may have excellent properties, the result is not a saleable board. Contrary to this is the understanding that Forest Enterprises Australia produced EcoAsh from unpruned and unthinned stands of Eucalyptus nitens using log selection and log cutting patterns for logs as small as 20cm SED. So we know that unpruned plantations can yield a proportion of usable sawlogs. Within Australia, Innes et al. (2008) summarised sampled Eucalypt stands from 13 to 47 years of age, with sawlog yields from pruned and some unpruned forests established for and managed for fibre. These can be combined with the results identified by Greaves (2004, as in Nolan et al. 2005). Table 2 below identified results from these two studies grouped by silviculture regime. Log grades identified in both these studies differed from the Tasmanian log grades. Each was equated to the nearest category based on either the data in the paper (Innes et al, 2008) or the combination of this with the Victorian log grades (VicForests, 2010). Table 2. Commercially usable log percentages (Tasmanian Grades 1,3,8).

The first grouping of pruned stands provides comparative small plantation eucalypt data that has been graphed below (Figure 9). The log grade yield from that trial where logs were selected prior to trial (lightly shaded globulus in the above table) has been omitted to provide a consistent sample and identify the trend.

Pruned Species regime age grade 1‐3 Reference

nitens wide spaced 13 24% Innes

globulus wide spaced 13 42% Innes

globulus sawlog silviculture 22 87% Greaves

nitens thinned 26 94% Innes

nitens natural stand selecte 47 95% Greaves (age assumed)

globulus thinned 19 91% Innes (selected logs)

Unpruned

nitens run of bush 26 33% Innes (unclear distinction from pruned section)

globulus pulpwood silvicultur 32 9% Greaves

nitens pulpwood silvicultur 34 8% Greaves

globulus run of bush 47 100% Innes (selected trees, not random or total sample)

Note Victorian DSE grades equated to Tasmanian Categories 1,3 and 8

Innes internal log classification equated to Tasmanian Categories 1,3 and 8


Figure 9. Sawlog yield with age (pruned stands)

The result of this is that the final calculation of sawlog yield under the categories requested has been modelled according to a size class of 30cm SED and 3.6m log length. The final amount of these (Section 3 above) has then been moderated according to the results of these studies. This means that

For unpruned stands a figure of 17% of the bare log yield (average of the unpruned studies in table 2 above) has been assumed to contribute to Categories 1,3 and 8.

For pruned stands the final sawlog yields are 75% (age 20 years), 90% (age 30 years) and 95% (age 40 years) of the total identified log volume as identified in figure 9.

Actual volume of sawlog in the expected categories is thus identified for each scenario in the following table: Table 3. Expected availability of Cat 1,3 or 8 sawlogs

Cat 1,3 and 8 Sawlogs m3 per year

Scenario 1 current

management


30yrs


40yrs

2012 ‐ 2016 60 72 24

2017 ‐ 2021 222 224 21

2022 ‐ 2026 676 2,202 107

2027 ‐ 2031 ‐ 7,921 528

2032 ‐ 2036 ‐ 19,345 5,226

2037 ‐ 2041 ‐ 61,487 18,251

2042 ‐ 2046 ‐ ‐ 42,098

2047 ‐ 2051 ‐ ‐ 151,778

There is no indication of any significant volume of minor species private plantation logs. The volume of peelers, given the requirement for relatively knot free logs, can be taken to be any percentage of the identified final category 1,3 and 8 resource that may be diverted to such. For small log sizes from managed plantations the peeler logs are far less distinguished in their form from sawlogs. They are basically interchangeable. This is in the most part because of the knot, defect and sawn board properties of the logs and the different proportions of select vs. standard and feature board that are likely to be derived from pruned vs. unpruned selected etc. It is a complex rationale which has a simple outcome of interchangeability.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 10 20 30 40 50

Saw

log

gra

de

yiel

d (%

age

of

log

s)

Stand age (years)

grade 1-3 yield pruned stands


The comparison between peelers from regrowth forests and sawlogs from regrowth forests is much more striking. Both in (average) diameter of log and most importantly position, number and type of knots and other features acceptable to the two different uses. We believe that would require a separate analysis, but this is not relevant to the current study. How does this result compare to the plantation yield seen by others? Our assessment indicted consistency with similar plantations particularly given the size classes we modelled, as we have commented. Grade 1-3 sawlog yield in the Innes paper was between 1.0 and 5.7m3 per year per hectare. Yield of grade 1-3 sawlog per year per hectare for hardwood plantations under our analysis is 0.5 for scenario 2a, 1.15 for scenario 2b and most importantly 4.3 for the scenario represented for comparison in the final appendix. This final scenario uses 25cm SED logs as sawlogs. The 25cm cut off is consistent with the cut off used for the seven different regimes assessed in the paper by Innes. Our value of 4.3 is if anything at the higher end of the range, not the lower. We did not use 25cm as our analysis indicated that it was outside the bounds of what was currently accepted to be a useable sawlog by the majority of stakeholders.

5. Previous Timber Resource Modelling Woodflow modelling from Tasmania’s private plantation estate was previously undertaken by PFT in 2004 (PFT, 2005). Outputs from the PFT 2004 modelling projected annual volume estimates averaged over five year periods which are reproduced in table 4 below. Table 4. Wood flow projection (Private Forests Tasmania, 2005)

The wood flow modelling above incorporated estimations provided by industrial plantation companies. The modelling assumed replanting following harvest and incorporated an estimated expansion of the plantation estate with smoothed harvest production. The sawlog and veneer log products in the above projections are understood to be dominated by estimations from industrial plantation estates under assumed silvicultural regimes which may no longer apply. (These outputs represented Forest Enterprise Australia (FEA) MIS plantings for EcoAsh harvest. The small end diameter specifications for the hardwood sawlog and veneer products were not stated and given FEA’s intention to produce sawlog from commercial thinning, a portion of this volume may have a minimum SED in the 20-30cm range. FEA is now in administration). Work by Beadle et al. (2008) reviewed the managed hardwood plantation resource in Tasmania and concluded (Figure 10) with a total plantation area consistent with the work of others including the National Plantation Inventory (Nolan et al., 2005 and references therein).


It is important to note that the data representing pruned and thinned forests fundamentally represents the public plantation resource of Forestry Tasmania, with authors noting that the private resource is predominantly MIS plantation managed for pulp. These values are consistent with data used in our modelling.

Figure 10. The distribution of the hardwood plantation solid-wood resource in Tasmania by

Solid Wood Log Results

6. Conclusion We have modelled the Tasmanian private plantation forest resource as provided by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF) based on indicated forest areas current to the end of December 2010. The modelling assessed approximately 201,000 hectares of private plantation forests comprising approximately 9,000 ha of softwood plantations and 191,000 ha of E.nitens and E.globulus hardwood plantations. 13,000 ha of land mapped as fallow, 4000 ha of unspecified age eucalypt plantations, 3000 ha of unspecified age softwood plantations and 170 ha of unspecified or minor species plantations were excluded from the modelling. Modelling of pine products under the assumed existing management regime maximising clear wood and solid wood logs, generated solid wood logs cut to 3.6m lengths and pulpwood cut to 2.4m lengths. The total volumes of products increase to a peak of approximately 250,000 m3 per annum for the five year period commencing in 2032 with logs considered suitable for sawing modelled as comprising approximately 25% of the total resource. The total output volumes appear low when compared to the previous woodflow modelling undertaken by PFT and may be explained by the approximately 3000 ha of unspecified age pine plantation and even contributions from the 13000 ha area mapped as fallow in the DAFF supplied dataset which were excluded from our modelling. Under a scenario assuming current management regime principally growing the hardwood plantations for pulp products with only limited active silvicultural management and short rotation harvesting the availability of solid wood logs exceeding a small end diameter cut-off of 30cm is very low. With further silvicultural considerations of knots and other features for solid wood log categorisation the useable sawlog components of the private plantation hardwood estate under current management regimes is low in regard to the requirements of the IGFA. Modelling of two hypothetical scenarios was undertaken which significantly increases the potential availability of solid wood logs from the estate, but which requires active management to be implemented in the very near future. Under these scenarios all forests were subjected to active silviculture management including pruning and thinning wherever the age of the forest enabled this to occur and postponing harvest to enhance the availability of larger solid wood logs.


Active silvicultural management and harvest of the forests at an age of 30 years increased the availability of sawlogs to approximately 61,000 m3 per year from 2037, while postponing harvest to age 40 increased the availability of sawlogs to in excess of 150,000 m3 per year from 2047. Replanting and smoothing could increase the available resource though these were not modelled which is considered consistent with current economic circumstances. There is no indication of any significant volume of minor species private plantation logs. The volume of peelers, given the requirement for relatively knot free logs, can be taken to be any percentage of the identified final category 1,3 and 8 resource that may be diverted to such.

7. References Beadle C., Paul K., Reeson A., Bruce J. & Battaglia M.,2011. Carbon Plantations – A

case study into management options for carbon sequestration, wood production and new investment opportunities. Prepared for Private Forestry Tasmania by the CSIRO National Flagship in Sustainable Agriculture. April 2011. http://www.privateforests.tas.gov.au/projects/current_projects accessed December 2011.

Beadle, C., Volker, P., Bird, T., Mohammed, C., Barry, K, Pinkard, L., Wiseman, D.,

Harwood, C., Washusen, R., Wardlaw, T. and Nolan G., 2008. Solid wood production from temperate eucalypt plantations: a Tasmanian case study. Southern Forests 70(1): 45-57.

Blakemore, P., Morrow, A., Ngo, D., Washusen, R., Harwood, C. Northway, R., Wood,

M., Volker, P. And Porada, H. 2010. Plantation-grown Eucalyptus nitens: Solid wood quality and processing performance on linear sawing systems with a range of commercial and experimental drying schedules. Technical Report 200, Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry.

Blakemore, P., Morrow, A., Washusen, R., Harwood, C. Wood, M. And Ngo, D.. 2010

(b). Evaluation of thin-section quarter-sawn boards and rotary veneer from plantation-grown Eucalyptus nitens. Technical Report 202, Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry.

Candy, S.G. 1997. Growth and yield models for Eucalyptus nitens plantations in

Tasmania and New Zealand, Tasforests 9:67-198.

Cat 1,3 and 8 Sawlogs m3 per year

Scenario 1 current

management


30yrs


40yrs

2012 ‐ 2016 60 72 24

2017 ‐ 2021 222 224 21

2022 ‐ 2026 676 2,202 107

2027 ‐ 2031 ‐ 7,921 528

2032 ‐ 2036 ‐ 19,345 5,226

2037 ‐ 2041 ‐ 61,487 18,251

2042 ‐ 2046 ‐ ‐ 42,098

2047 ‐ 2051 ‐ ‐ 151,778


DAFF, 2005. Tasmania Social and Economic Report. Tasmanian Community Forest Agreement (May 2005). http://www.daff.gov.au/rfa/regions/tasmania accessed December 2011.

De Fegely, R, 2007. Social Economic and Resource Issues – Pulpwood Supply. Expert

Witness Statement in the matter of the Bell Bay Pulp Mill Project; A Project of State Significance, Resource Planning and Development commission Inquiry. http://www.gunnspulpmill.com.au/iis/supp/robert_de_fegely_ews.pdf Accessed January 2012.

Defenderfer, D. 2010. Carbon Storage and Trading through Farm Forestry: A Survey

of Farmers in Tasmania. Rural Development Services, December 2010. http://www.privateforests.tas.gov.au/files/active/0/Carbon%20Storage%20and%20Trading%20through%20Farm%20Forestry%20-%20Survey%20of%20Farmers-%20Final%20Report.pdf accessed December 2011.

FIAT/TCSF, 2004. Industry submission to Forestry Tasmania re 2010 benchmark.

Forest Industries Association and Tasmanian Country Sawmillers Federation. http://fiatas.com.au/assets/files/pdf/FIAT%20and%20TCSF%20Final%20Submission.pdf?phpMyAdmin=0qXzcw8fj39JzsSbHZCUq6aDTp4 accessed January 2012.

Forestry Tasmania, 2007. Forestry Act 1920 (TAS) Sawlog and other products supply

agreement. Contract of sale No. 918 of 20 December 2007 between Forestry Tasmania and Gunns Limited. http://www.forestrytas.com.au/uploads/File/pdf/Gunns%20SOPSA.pdf accessed January 2012.

Forestry Tasmania, 2011. Evaluation of wood resource Scenarios relevant to the

Tasmanian Forests Statement of Principles to lead an Agreement – Final Report to Signatories. Forestry Tasmania, Hobart, 6 June 2011.

Gavran, M. and Parsons, M., 2011. Australian Plantation Statistics 2011 – August

2011. Australian Bureau of Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra. www.abares.gov.au accessed December 2012.

Gunns,2006. Bell Bay Pulp Mill. Draft Integrated Impact Statement. Volume 1.

http://www.gunnspulpmill.com.au/iis/V1/V1b_part6.pdf accessed January 2012

Harwood, C. 2010. Sawn timber from native forests and plantations in Tasmania.

CRC for Forestry Bulletin 13. Innes, T., Greaves, B., Washusen, R. And Nolan G. 2008. Determining the economics

of processing plantation eucalypts for solid timber products. Project Number PN04.3007, Forest And Wood Products Australia.

Laffan, M.D., 1993. Site productivity and land suitability for eucalypt and radiata

pine plantations in Tasmanian State Forest: A framework for classification and assessment of land resources. Soils Technical Report, 2. Forestry Commission Tasmania. Referenced in DAFF, 2005.

Laffan, M.D. and McIntosh, P.D., 2005. Forest soils formed in Jurassic dolerite in

Tasmania: a summary of their properties, distribution and management requirements. Division of Forest Research and Development, Technical Report 25/2005, Forestry Tasmania.

Laffan, M.D., McIntosh, P.D. and Neilsen W.A., 2003. Forest soils derived from

granite in northern Tasmania: an overview of properties, distribution and management requirements. Tas Forests Vol 14, May 2003.


Lindenmayer, D.B., Mackey, B.G. and Nix, H.A. (1996). The bioclimatic domains of four species of commercially important eucalypts from south-eastern Australia. Aust. For. 59(2): 74-89. Referenced in DAFF, 2005.

Nolan, G., Greaves, B., Washusen, R., Parsons, M. And Jennings, S. 2005. Eucalypt

plantations for solid wood products in Australia – a review. “If you don’t prune it, we can’t use it.”. Project No: PN04.3002, Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry.

Osler, G.H.R., West, P.W. and Laffan, M.D. (1996). Test of a system to predict

productivity of eucalypt plantations in Tasmania. Australian Forestry 59(2): 57-63. Referenced in DAFF, 2005.

Private Forests Tasmania (PFT), 2005. Tasmanian Private Property Wood flow

Estimates 2002 to 2031. http://www.privateforests.tas.gov.au/files/active/0/woodflowweb.pdf accessed December 2011.

Private Forests Tasmania (PFT), 2010. Farm Forestry Toolbox. [The Farm Forestry

Toolbox is a collection of programs for assisting managers of shelter belts, plantations or native forests]. http://www.privateforests.tas.gov.au/products/farm_forestry_toolbox Version 5 downloaded December, 2010

VicForests, 2010. Utilisation Procedures for all commercial harvesting and haulage

managed by VicForests. Version 6.0 March 2010. http://www.vicforests.com.au/assets/docs/sales%20&%20supply/contractor%20info/full%20utilisation%20procedures.pdf accessed January 2012.

Satchell, D. And Turner, J. 2010. Solid timber recovery and economics of short-

rotation small-diameter Eucalypt forestry using novel sawmilling strategy applied to Eucalyptus regnans. New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited (SCION) Report No. FFR-DS028.

Washusen, R., Harwood, C., Morrow, A., Valencia, JC., Volker, P., Wood, M., Innes, T.,

Ngo, D., Northway, R. And Bojadzic, M. 2007. Gould’s Country Eucalyptus nitens thinning trial: solid wood performance using conventional processing strategies. Technical Report 168, Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry.

8. Appendices – Plantation Product Scenario Log Classes

8.1 P.radiata Plantation Products

8.2 E.nitens Plantation Products (current management scenario)

8.3 E.nitens Plantation Products (Harvest at age 30 scenario)


8.5 E.globulus Plantation Products (current management scenario)

8.6 E.globulus Plantation Products (Harvest at age 30 scenario)


8.8 Hardwood Plantation Products (Harvest at age 40 cut to SED of 25cm)


8.1 P.radiata Plantation Products

2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041 2042 ‐ 2046

Pulp 8,785 8,812 24,424 30,391 112,409 62,704 51,813

K15 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

K20 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

K25 7,304 7,042 19,201 24,004 77,684 28,871 36,638

K30 14,991 19,536 20,816 20,399 51,670 20,945 54,348

K35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P35 1,617 2,081 6,981 10,224 9,728 4,310 5,227

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000 Potential Private Plantation Pine Solid Wood Logs

Estimated availability (m3 per annum)Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40


8.2 E.nitens Plantation Products (current management scenario)

2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041

Pulp 811,482 1,084,501 1,304,079 335,522 211,308 82,224

K15 680,047 808,758 916,914 218,099 79,908 3,019

K20 262,325 252,915 241,587 67,873 13,455 ‐

K25 29,204 19,910 26,809 8,675 1,736 ‐

K30 180 1,269 3,974 ‐ ‐ ‐

K35 0 7 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000 Potential Private Plantation E.nitens Solid Wood Logs

(Scenario 1 ‐ Current management)Estimated availability (m3 per annum)

Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40



2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041

Pulp 6,706 55,417 298,528 782,172 1,055,652 890,347

K15 6,978 57,616 331,399 830,653 1,205,826 895,528

K20 4,234 33,362 226,113 548,986 1,104,283 847,954

K25 1,398 8,851 76,060 202,967 533,715 410,525

K30 252 1,278 12,862 42,104 110,439 84,472

K35 ‐ 2 0 412 2,337 962

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 11,438

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3,122

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Potential Private Plantation E.nitens Solid Wood Logs(Scenario 2a ‐ Clearfall at age 30)

Estimated availability (m3 per annum)

Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40



2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041 2042 ‐ 2046 2047 ‐ 2051

Pulp ‐ 497 6,479 56,812 306,229 805,034 1,101,267 964,236

K15 ‐ 546 7,118 63,126 355,195 907,749 1,329,395 995,852

K20 ‐ 382 5,169 44,302 286,377 684,268 1,302,151 1,007,917

K25 ‐ 155 2,117 15,347 121,420 304,127 744,776 586,221

K30 ‐ 42 534 2,956 29,508 87,873 222,845 167,687

K35 ‐ 2 30 70 857 7,922 21,876 14,423

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 30,796

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 15,505

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Potential Private Plantation E.nitens Solid Wood Logs(Scenario 2b ‐ Clearfall at age 40)


Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40


8.5 E.globulus Plantation Products (current management scenario)

2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031

Pulp 157,481 56,067 43,142 4,126

K15 134,583 47,086 32,637 3,918

K20 40,344 12,699 5,513 1,556

K25 2,692 520 103 115

K30 166 29 ‐ ‐

K35 8 0 ‐ ‐

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000 Potential Private Plantation E.globulus Solid Wood Logs

(Scenario 1 ‐ Current management)Estimated availability (m3 per annum)

Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40



2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041

Pulp 5,109 7,529 16,820 176,448 41,356 4,345

K15 6,063 8,814 18,859 211,924 57,040 7,164

K20 2,945 3,437 8,204 117,985 49,100 9,185

K25 877 412 1,656 33,819 15,060 4,070

K30 165 38 92 4,080 1,015 646

K35 8 0 ‐ ‐ 1 22

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 1

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Potential Private Plantation E.globulus Solid Wood Logs(Scenario 2a ‐ Clearfall at age 30)

Estimated availability (m3 per annum)Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40


8.7 E.globulus Plantation Products (Clear fall at age 40)

2012 ‐ 2016 2017 ‐ 2021 2022 ‐ 2026 2027 ‐ 2031 2032 ‐ 2036 2037 ‐ 2041 2042 ‐ 2046 2047 ‐ 2051

Pulp 1,167 2,819 1,833 6,890 16,990 178,627 41,892 4,481

K15 1,451 3,609 2,393 8,924 22,062 241,748 63,735 7,691

K20 845 1,880 1,309 4,373 12,128 159,397 61,551 10,701

K25 359 461 306 503 2,739 52,216 23,323 5,687

K30 117 76 64 75 360 10,937 2,895 1,382

K35 7 1 2 4 13 629 19 116

K40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

P30 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 13

P35 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 3

P40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

‐

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Potential Private Plantation E.globulus Solid Wood Logs(Scenario 2b ‐ Clearfall at age 40)


Pulp

K15

K20

K25

K30

K35

K40

P30

P35

P40


8.8 Hardwood plantation solid wood logs – harvest at age 40 and cut solid wood logs to 25cm SED.

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐2046

2047 ‐2051

Total Volume (m3/yr) 3,900 10,400 27,300 203,400 1,153,900 3,440,600 4,915,700 3,812,700

Total Solid wood logs 500 700 3,100 19,000 154,900 463,700 1,015,700 821,800

Total Pulp 3,400 9,700 24,200 184,400 999,000 2,976,900 3,900,000 2,990,900

‐

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Products(Proactive silivultural management and harvest at 40 yr age

‐ Solid wood logs cut to 25cm SED)

2012 ‐2016

2017 ‐2021

2022 ‐2026

2027 ‐2031

2032 ‐2036

2037 ‐2041

2042 ‐ 2046

2047 ‐2051

Globulus Sawlogs 500 500 400 600 3,100 63,800 26,200 7,200

Nitens Sawlogs ‐ 200 2,700 18,400 151,800 399,900 989,500 814,600

‐

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Volume (m3/yr)

Potential Private Hardwood Plantation Solid wood logs by Species(Proactive silvicultural management and harvest at 40 yr age

‐ Solid wood logs cut to 25cm SED)

E: [email protected] www.pittsh.com.au incorporated as Pitt and Sherry (Operations) Pty Ltd ABN 67 140 184 309

transport infrastructure | community infrastructure | industrial infrastructure | climate change

Winner - Tasmanian Large Business Sustainability Award 2011

Canberra 1st Floor 20 Franklin Street PO Box 4442 Manuka ACT 2603 T: (02) 6295 2100 F: (02) 6260 6555 Devonport 1st Floor 35 Oldaker Street PO Box 836 Devonport Tasmania 7310 T: (03) 6424 1641 F: (03) 6424 9215 Hobart GF, 199 Macquarie Street GPO Box 94 Hobart Tasmania 7001 T: (03) 6210 1400 F: (03) 6223 1299 Hobart Building Surveying 199 Macquarie Street T: (03) 6210 1476 F: (03) 6223 7017 Launceston 4th Floor 113 – 115 Cimitiere Street PO Box 1409 Launceston Tasmania 7250 T: (03) 6323 1900 F: (03) 6334 4651 Melbourne Level 1, HWT Tower 40 City Road, Southbank VIC 3006 PO Box 259 South Melbourne Victoria 3205 T: (03) 9682 5290 F: (03) 9682 5292

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