Politics of the Middle East

Islamic International Relations

An Islamic Theory?

• J. Harris Proctor in Islam and International Relations (1965), the notion that Islam could be influential upon international affairs and should therefore be an independent subject of study was clearly invalid

• Buzan, Why is there no non-Western IR theory?• Orthodox IR and Islamic IR• religion must be taken into account in International

Relations theorising without rejecting previous theories or disregarding research methods developed in the 20th Century

• al siyasi al Islami (Islamic political order)• Extra-rational agency, Umma, Assabiya,• laws governing society are primarily normative

as opposed to prescriptive• Abdul Hamid Abu Sulayman opened the door

for an exclusively Islamic concept of the international in, Towards an Islamic Theory of International Relations

Functions of Theory

• Theories disagree on what constitutes the state and its sovereignty

• Non-Westphalian Approach: Diminished value of the Nation-State,

• Two Concepts of The State and Sovereignty– 1) Umma, One indivisible community bound through a

Assabiya, – 2) Inside/ Outside

• Dar al Harb (Realm of War, The Other)• Dar al Islam (Realm of Islam)

• Ontology (What you know) • All theories accept Tawhid (oneness of God) • Theories differ on methodology– Quran (Word of God dictated to Muhammad)– Sunna (Sayings and deeds of the Prophet)– Fiqh ( Islamic Juris-prudence 5 Sunni, 3 Shi’ite)

Ijtihad (personal judgment)

Islamic IR Schools

• Classical (Traditional)• Reformist (Non-Traditional)• Revolutionary (Salafi/Jihadi)

Classical Approach and the 1st Debate

• Islam’s formative period, Origins 7th C to Conquest

• Related to Classical Hobbesian Realism• Persistent existential struggle• Literalist interpretation: Divine sources require

no human intervention• Defensive and Offensive Jihad (the lesser) • Perpetual Dar al Harb/ Dar al Islam conflict

Reformists and the 2nd Debate

• 19th C Salafism (learning from the rightly guided caliphs)

• Jamal al Din al Afghani• Emerged as a result of Islamic decline• Return to the Salafs. Mediation between the

rejectionists and the modernists• Related to the Lockean tradition of cautious

cooperation• Can Islam support both universalism and trans-

nationalism?

Revisions

• Revised Dar al Harb/ Dar al Islam: alternate inter-subjective worlds coexisting without one asserting its hegemony upon the other through a superior assabiya

• Dar al Ahd (realm of treaties) • The Umma is a meta-physical concept, Boundaries less

contraining• Ijtihad• Closing of the gates 10th C• Traditionalist judgment on matters without the consent of

the ulema is heretical• Reformist: It is necessary to content with the modern world

Salafi Jihadism, 3rd Debate

• Theoretical paradigms affected by world events, WW1, end of the Caliphate 3rd Debate

• Blends Classical Hyper-realism and the approach to Jihad with ijtihad

• Reformist use ijtihad to engage with modernity• SJ use ijtihad as a tool to bypass the ulema• Sayid Qutb, Hassan al-Banna , Maulana Maududi• Qutb asserted that Muslims have lost their way and

Islam has been altered to the point of only existing in the minds of the revolutionaries

• Conflict, then, is not just a matter of survival but the only tool for achieving peace, as there can be no peace without a global Islamic political order

• Early Muslim Brotherhood

Assassination of Sadat, 4th Debate

• Crackdown on Islamist groups and Islamic institutions

• marginalization, subjugation, radicalization• Muslim Brotherhood disavow violent action• More concentration on traditional politics and social

services• Exodus to Afghanistan, the Afghan Arabs• Ayman al Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden, Abdullah

Azzam

Politics of the Middle East

Iranian Islamic Revolution 1979

• Protest begin October 1977• Pahlavi fled to exile January 1979 Ayatollah

Khomeini returned from exile• April 1, 1979 Islamic Republic Declared

Causes

• Conservative, Liberal, Religious, Secular• Increasing westernization and secularization• Cultural pollution• Overambitious economic reforms• Economic decline following 1973 oil boom• Oppressive extravagant regime • SAVAK• Underestimation of the Khomeinist movement

White Revolution

• Advertised as implementing Western reforms• Aimed to strengthen the upper classes who supprted the

Monarchy, Gain support of the peasantry Weaken middle class influence

• 1963national referendum: 5,598,711 for 4,115 against• Land Reformd: 90% of sharecropeers become land owners• Privatisation of Government industry• Free Education, Extened Health Services, Welfare, Improve

Literacy Rates, Women’s Suffrage, Housing Equality, Nationalisation for Forest Land,, Price Stabalisation

Effects

• Industrial growth

• Secondary Education 370,000 to 741,000

• College Education 24,885 to 145,210

• Literacy 26% to 42%

• Marriage age raised to 15, Women can vote, hold public office, serve as judges and lawyers

• The intelligentsia and the urban working class grew 4X in population

• Disaffected by the outlawing of political parties, associations, unions and independent newspapers

• Land Reform: large numbers of independent farmers and landless laborers disaffected by corruption.

• Most unable to buy enough land to sustain farming

SAVAK• Sazeman-e Ettelat va

Amniyat-e Keshvar, Organization of Intelligence and National Security)

• Established 1957 with CIA assistance

• had the power to censor the media, screen applicants for government jobs, use all means necessary including torture to hunt down dissidents

• Rebranded SAVAMA

The Build Up 1970 - 1977

• Pahlavi fanily 20 Billion in Oil wealth• Influx of foreign skilled workers• Failure of trickle down economics• Increased gap between rich and poor• 1977 Austerity measures to fight inflation• Anti-profiteering campaign• Death of Ali Shariati by SAVAK (Red Shi’ism)

Monarchs vs Ulema

• 1935 Pahlavi’s father outlawed Islamic dress and replaced sharia with Western law

• Ulema loss influence over education and family law

• Clerical institutions dependent on rents which land reform severely reduced

• Rise of Khoemeini• Arrested 1963 sparking protests, 1964 exiled for

15 years

Ayatollah Ruhollah Mostafavi Moosavi Khomeini

• 24 September 1902 – 3 June 1989

• Educated in Arak and Qom• Lecturer at Qom and Najaf• importance of religion to

practical social and political issues of the day

• "virtual face of Islam in Western popular culture"

Revolutionary Ideology• Jalal Al-e Ahmed, Gharbzadegi (Westoxification) • velayat e faqih government should be run in accordance with

traditional sharia, for this to happen a leading jurist must provide political "guardianship“

• "more necessary even than prayer and fasting“• Quietist Shi’ism vs Activist Shi’ism• Martyrdom • "export of revolution does not mean interfering in other nation's

affairs“ but "answering their questions about knowing God“• "Establishing the Islamic state world-wide belong to the great

goals of the revolution."

• January 1978 publication of Red and Black Imperialism. Protests in Qom

• Araba’een, Feb 18, March 29, May 10• Reforms calm protest: relaxed censorship, dismiss

SAVAK officials, protestester treated leanently, elections promised

• Cinema Rex Fire 422 killed, Protest renewed• Further concessions: Rastakhiz Party abolished ,

all parties legalizedm political prisoners released, increased freedom of expression, curtailed SAVAK's authority, closed down casinos and nightclubs, abolished the imperial calendar

• Sept 4, Eid Protests• Marshall Law• Black Friday 8 Sept 1978, 89 Protesters killed• Government ceases significant intervention• Shah pressures Iraq to expel Khomeini • Moves to France• Shah "this revolution cannot but be supported

by me, the king of Iran“• Military stands down

• Protests Continue: Secularist and Leftist ignored Khomeini’s Islamist approach, believed him only a figurehead

• ‘The Plan’, civilian government, vacation, referendum

• 16 January, 1979 Shahpour Bakhtiar appointed PM, Shah flees to Egypt

• Bakhtiar seen as Shah puppet

Khomeini Returns

• Feb 1, Khomeini in Tehran• 'I shall kick their teeth in. I

appoint the government in support of this nation‘

• "Decade of Fajr."• Supreme Military Council

"neutral”• Feb 11, Victory Day

Conclusion• 1983, Revolution

consolidated• 1978 – 79, 2700

protesters killed• 1981 – 85, 8000 executed

by revolutionary courts• 1979 Hostage crisis• End of relations with US• Neither East nor West• Middle East Cold War• Iran, Syria, Hezbollah vs

Egypt, Jordan, Gulf States

Politics of the Middle East

The Global Jihad

Join The Caravan

• Muhammad abd al-Salam Faraj, Jamaat al-Jihad

• Abdullah Azzam, Godfather of Jihad• Afghan Arabs organiser• Maktab al-Khidamat• “Jihad and the rifle alone. No

conferences, no dialogue, no negotiations”

Causation

• Existing explanations focus either on very specific issues of the modern era or timeless metanarratives

• Poverty• Authoritarian regimes• US (Western) foreign policy• The Jewish state• Globalisation and modernity• Culture and values• Clash of Civilisations

The Rise and Fall of Political Islam• 1924 End of the Caliphate• Hassan al Banna, Sayid Qutb• Failure of Arab Nationalism, the absence of a unification

narrative• Grand Mosque Seizure, Luxor• The Muslim Brotherhood, ‘God is our objective, the• Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader, struggle is

our way, and death for the sake of Allah is the highest of our aspirations.’

• Quietening of the Islamists• “Islamist movements have been in part secularized by the

political process, where political logic has trumped religious logic”

• Hijra

Salafi Jihadism Ideology

• Fundamentalist/ de-contextualised

• Salafism, Hijra, jihad, jayhilliya,

• Taymiyya, Afghani, Maududi, Qutb, Azzam, Faraj, Salafism, jihad, Hijra and jahiliya

• Ayman al Zawahiri Knights Under the Prophets Banner

• Qutb The New Jahiliyya• ‘everything around us is

jahiliya, people’s perceptions and beliefs, habits and customs, the sources of their culture, arts, literature and their laws and legislations. Much of what we think of as Islamic culture, Islamic sources or Islamic philosophy, is in fact jahiliya.’

Ijtihad• Sura 2 verse 106 • ‘None of our revelations do we abrogate or cause

to be forgotten. But we substitute something better or similar. Don’t you know that Allah has power over all things.’

• Sura 16 verse 101 • ‘When we substitute one revelation for another

and Allah knows best what he reveals in stages. They say you are but a forger, but most of them do not understand.’

Quran 56: 15-26

• (They will be) on Thrones encrusted (with gold and precious stones), Reclining on them, facing each other. Round about them will (serve) youths of perpetual (freshness), With goblets, (shining) beakers, and cups (filled) out of clear-flowing fountains No after-ache will they receive therefrom, nor will they suffer intoxication: And with fruits, any that they may select And the flesh of fowls, any that they may desire. And (there will be) Companions with beautiful, big, and lustrous eyes, Like unto Pearls well-guarded. A Reward for the deeds of their past (life). Not frivolity will they hear therein, nor any taint of ill,- Only the saying, "Peace! Peace".

Al Qaeda (The Base)

• Founded 1988• Computer Database containing

contacts of Afghan fighters• Mujahedeen Myth• 1992 Yemen, 1995 Riyadh, 1998 Kenya

and Tanzania, 2001 US• 1998 Fatwa• 2001 merger with Egyptian Islamic

Jihad forming "Qaeda al-Jihad“• Bin Laden the organiser• Zawahiri the thinker

The Near and Far Enemy Debate

• Debate of the jihadist center of gravity• Near enemy (Arab regimes)• Far Enemy (hegemonic powers) • Structure vs Agent• The 20 year plan– the Awakening (2000-2003) Provoke a war– Opening Eyes (2004 – 2007) Become a global brand and

focus on Iraq– (2007 - 2010) Focus on Israel, Syria, Turkey– (2010 - 2013) Challenge US asymmetrically

Glocalization

• Franchising, The al Qaeda brand• Affiliates, Allies and Freelance Jihadists• Wedding local grievances to the global effort• “Think globally, act locally”– Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula– Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb– Al Qaeda in Iraq (Now ISIS) – Ansar al Sharia– Al Shabaab

Unity, Legitimacy, Hegemony

• The termination of the caliphate followed by the failure of pan-Islamism, pan-Arabism and political Islam leaves a narrative void.

• Post WWII consolidation of international system and norms

• Hegemonic willingness to maintain the existing order

Waning Influence

• Increased isolation and stagnation of al Qaeda Central (AQC) post 9-11

• Death of bin Laden• Soft Power strategies• New Generation

Jihadists• Recruitment flow from Europe• Rise of ISIS

Down but not out

• Jihadist civil war Islamic State vs AQC• Syrian conflict may determine the outcome

Politics of the Middle East

The War on Terror

September 11, 2001

• 2996 Deaths• 10 Billion infrastructure damage• Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq• 2001 Letter to America• support of Israel, attacks in

Somalia, atrocities in Chechnya, authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, oppression in Kashmir

• The presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia

• sanctions against Iraq

• Hijackers, 15 Saudi, 2 Emiratis, 1 Jordan, 1 Egypt

• Flight 11 and 175 Boston to La hit WTC

• Flight 77 DC to LA hit Pentagon

• Flight 93 Newark to SF crashed in Shanksville

• US airspace closed NATO take up air border security patrols

• “The Pet Goat”

The Hamburg Cell

• Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Architect of 9-11 plan 1996

• Formed 1998 by University Students in Hamburg Germany

• Mohamed Atta, Marwan al-Shehhi Ramzi bin al-Shibh

• Chance meeting with al Qaeda agent• Training in Afghanistan, chosen for 9-11

mission• Enroll in flight training schools in US• The 20th hijacker

Ziad Jarrah

• Beirut• Wealthy, secular background• Aysel Şengün• "I did what I was supposed to

do" and "You ought to be very proud, because it is an honor and you will see the result and everybody will be happy"

International Reaction

• Attacks denounced• Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual

leader of Hamas, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Taliban

• Candlelight vigils in Iran and Pakistan

Domestic Reaction

• Mass of volunteers travel to NY• “American Muslims utterly condemn the vicious

and cowardly acts of terrorism against innocent civilians.”

• Falwell, "pagans, abortionists, feminists, the gays and the lesbians. I point the finger in their face and say 'you helped this happen”

• Increase in Hate Crimes• Sheikh Temple in Wisconsin burned

Freedom or Security• Department of Homeland Security• Patriot Act• Expanded law enforcement powers

related to search and seizure, Increased power of financial regulation, Increased border security and immigration authority

• The Terrorism Narrative and US foreign relations

• Politicalisation of Terrorism• Who is a terrorist?

Afghanistan

• US demand Taliban give up UBL• NATO and allied invasion October 2001• Civilian deaths 19,013 • Allied 14,859• Taliban 20,000 – 35,000• No significant peace established• Bilateral Security Agreement US combat troops

withdraw 2014, all US personnel withdraw 2016

Failed Plots

• The 2001 shoe bomb plot• Library Tower in LA,• 2003 Brooklyn Bridge in New York City• 2004 Financial buildings plot, IMF, World Bankm NYSE• 2004 Columbus Shopping Mall Bombing • 2006 Sears Tower 2007 • Fort Dix attack 2007 • JFK airport • New York Subway Bombing Plot • 2010 Times Square car bombing attempt

Successful Plots

• 2002 Bali • 2003 Casablanca • 2003 Istanbul • 2004 Madrid train bombings.• 2005 London bombings • 2007 Algiers • 2007 Glasgow International Airport • 2009 Fort Hood , United States • 2012 Toulouse and Montauban shootings in France• Benghazi Libya

Capture of Osama bin Laden• Abbottabad Pakistan• 1.3 Kilometers from Pakistan

Military Academy• Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, • 2 May 2011• SEAL Team 6, Stealth helicopters• 38 minutes on the ground• Overseas Contingency