Police reform evidence for

change

Why a single service?

JAS Stats User Day Police and Fire Reform

Implications for data and analysis

Neil GrantKirsty Bosley

5/3/12

What we’ll talk about

• Why reform• What stage are the

reforms at• What are JAS doing –

past/present• The future for data

and analysis?

Performing wellNo. of recorded crimes

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

-97

2001

-02

2006

-07

down 46% since 1991

All Fires in Scotland

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

Year

To

tal

nu

mb

er

of

fire

s

Est. Scottish DEL 2009-10 to 2026-27

Why reform?• Protect and improve local services, the

jewel in the crown, despite financial cuts; by stopping duplication of support services eight times over and not cutting the front line

• Create more equal access to specialist support and national capacity – like murder investigation teams, firearms teams and fire investigations - where and when they are needed

• Strengthen the connection between services and communities; by creating a new formal relationship with all 32 local authorities; involving many more locally elected members and better integrating with community planning partnerships.

Structure

• 8 Forces• 1 Parliament

Structure

• 8 Forces• 1 Parliament• 32 LAs

2011January February March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

Cabinet Agree Policy

Consultation

Preparation of Legislation to Bill Introduction

2012

2013

January

January

February

February

March

March

April

April

May

May

June

June

July

July

August

August

Sept

Sept

Oct

Oct

Nov

Nov

Dec

Dec

Parliamentary Stages of Bill

Implementation of Legislation

Appointment of ConvenersAppointment of Chief Officers

Imp of Leg (cont)

Apt of CO’s

Prep for New CO

Staff and Property Transfer

CSR12/13Bud

1st Cont NFY LGE

NFY

Stg 1 Stg 2 Stg 3

Olympics

Appointment of Board Members

Staff and Property Trans

Current SG fire statisticsFire Statistics, Scotland - IncidentsPublications :http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PubFires

Additional Datasets:Local Authority datasets 2009/10, 2010/11FRS 12 Year TrendScotland Level since 1990http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/Datasets/DatasetsFire

Fire and Rescue Service Statistics – ScotlandWork force, fire safety activitiesPublications :http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/PubFireRescue

What have JAS been doing?

Statistics publications

Reform analysis

• Research

• OBC

• Legislation, Financial Memo

• Consultations

We told people what the current picture looks like

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Financial Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Fa

tal C

as

ua

ltie

s

Numbers of fire fatalities

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Financial Year

Nu

mb

er

of

fire

s

44

P3

Dwellings

Other buildings

Road Vehicles

Other primary fires

Secondary fires

Chimney fires

Where the fires occurred

3

Fires and fire fatalities are falling… 1999 to 2010 (provisional)

We told people how Scottish FRSs compare with other parts of the UK

Expenditure per 1,000 population excluding firefighter pensions

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Shire A

reas

Met

ropolit

an

England

Wal

es

England a

nd Wal

es

Scotla

nd

All Auth

oritie

s

£

5CIPFA 2009-10

We told people where the money was spent

Total spend in Scotland 2009/10

4

…and lots moreTotal expenditure per 1,000 population

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Centra

l

Dumfri

es a

nd Gal

low

ay Fife

Gra

mpi

an

Highl

and

and

Isla

nds

Lothi

an a

nd Bor

ders

Strath

clyd

e

Taysi

de

£

Actual gross expenditure

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Centra

l

Dumfri

es a

nd Gal

low

ay Fife

Gra

mpi

an

Highl

and

and

Isla

nds

Lothi

an a

nd Bor

ders

Strath

clyd

e

Taysi

de

£,0

00

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Shire ar

eas

Met

ropolit

an F

RSs

England

Wales

England a

nd Wal

es

Scotla

nd

Other staff

CFS

Control

Retained 'frontline'Whole time 'frontline'Seniormanagers

Spend per 1000 population by fire and rescue service

Total spend by fire and rescue service

Varied job structure across the UK FRSs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Highla

nd a

nd Isla

nds

Gram

pian

Taysid

eFife

Lothi

an and

Bord

ers

Centra

l

Strath

clyde

Dumfries a

nd G

all...

% o

f F

TE

all

staf

fOther staff

CFS

Control

Retained 'front line'

Whole time 'front line'

Senior managers

Varied job structure across Scottish FRSs

Current SG police statistics• Recorded Crime in Scotland

• Homicide in Scotland

• Domestic Abuse Recorded by the Police in Scotland

• Racist Incidents Recorded by the Police in Scotland

• Recorded Crimes and Offences Involving Firearms

• Firearm Certificate Statistics

• Drug Seizures by Scottish Police Forces

• Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009

• Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics • Police Officer Quarterly Strength Statistics• Scottish Policing Performance Framework Main Justice Statistics Publication Webpage

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/Publications

We told people what the current picture looks like - crime

Crimes and offences recorded by the police, 1970 to 1994 then 1995-96 to 2010-11

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

19

70

19

73

19

76

19

79

19

82

19

85

19

88

19

91

19

94

19

97

-98

20

00

-01

20

03

-04

20

06

-07

20

09

-10

Year

Nu

mb

er

Crimes Offences

Change to Financial year

We told people what the current picture looks like - homicide

Homicide Victims in Scotland, 2001-02 to 2010-11

115125

109

137

94

119115

99

82

97

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20

01

-02

20

02

-03

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Vic

tim

s

We’ve looked at service variation 1

• Performance variation– Public satisfaction 75% to 89%– Spend per resident £147-200– Absence rates 3.0% to 4.3%

• Standardised best practice – potential savings– Overtime £6.5m p.a.– HR £9m p.a.– Press & media £1.2 p.a.– Sickness absence – 120 FTE officers

Recorded crimes per 10,000 population, 2010-11

• Range from:– 36 in Orkney – 47 in Eilean Siar, to– 140 in Aberdeen City– 156 in Glasgow City

We’ve looked at service variation 2

Percentage of recorded crimes cleared up 2010-11

• Range from:– 70 in Eilean Siar– 69 in D&G, to– 36 in East

Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire

We’ve looked at service variation 3

More sustainable

• Outline Business Case / Fin Memo

• TOM

• £131m long term efficiencies

Support Functions34%

Other28%

Cross-Functional Savings

21%

Dealing with the Public

9%

Local Policing8%

Police OBC efficiencies

We’ve looked at service variation 4

What about the future?• The Justice Analytical Services Division Analytical

Programme 2011-12: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/JASAP11-12

• More user consultation• JAS statistical review• The introduction of a single police force and FRS

will also affect the products we produce

Fire statistics in the future

• Single service

• New Geography for publications – Scotland and Local Authority

• Work with the Reform workstreams – Performance Management project – many interdependancies

• Developing work – FSEC, SIMD and SNS

FRS Outcomes

FRS Performance Indicators

National Outcomes

FRS OutcomesFRS Outcomes

FRS Outcomes

Inputs Inputs Inputs Inputs

Primary indicators

Secondary indicators

Dw fires

Improved service

outcomes

Protecting frontline services

Simplification of the delivery

landscape

Ability to respond

quickly to future

challenges

Improved National

resilience and interoperability

Close engagement with local

communities and other stakeholders

Reduced harm to, and greater resilience of, public, property, economy and environment from fires and other emergencies through improved

outcomes.

Greater ability to respond to, and mitigate social, economic and

environmental effects from, national emergencies

Improved use of public money, generating greater public satisfaction, by

reducing costs through efficiently and effectively applying risk based

management of resources and promote increased flexibility.

Greater investment in the right skills and attitudes to deliver high quality, value for

moneyservices in a positive environment for

everyone.

Improved Prevention

Improved Protection

Emergency Response Public Value People

Reduced num

ber of fires and otherem

ergency incidents.

Reduced num

ber of deaths and injuries from

fires and other emergencies.

Greater influence and regulation of the built environm

ent to protect people, property and the environm

ent from harm

.

Better education of, and

engagement w

ith, public

Higher quality response to

emergencies.

Improved state of preparedness for em

ergencies, with m

ore effective em

ergency cover arrangem

ents.

Improved resilience during peak activity levels and business

disruption.

More econom

ic growth.

Better designed, high value for

money services.

Improved quality of life outcom

es for com

munities.

Higher perform

ing, better trained enabled and com

mitted w

orkforce w

orking in a positive environment.

Com

petent and capable leaders and m

anagers.

Lower levels of ill discipline,

absenteeism and staff turnover.

All fires

Fire cas

Vehicle fires (accidental)

RTC cas

OB fires

Dw firesDelib/acc

Fire casAll firesSpecia

l service

sOB fires

Rate and size of OB

fires

Delib other

primary fires

Secondary fires Dw

fires

Vehicle fires Fire

cas

RTC cas

Fire cas

RTC cas

Fire cas

Spec Serv incs

attended

Fire cas

Delib other

primary fires

OB fires

Rate and size of OB

fires

All fires

Fire cas

RTC cas

Rate and size of OB

fires

All fires

Fire cas

All fires

Fire cas

Performance indicators against Intermediate BenefitsE

nd

ben

efit

sIn

teri

m b

enef

its

Fire safety audit

CFS activit

y

CFS activit

y

Fire safety audit

CFS activit

y

Fire safety auditFalse alarm

- equip

Attacks on ff

CFS activit

y

FA malicious

Work force monitoring

– E&D

Fire safety audit

Costs

CFS activit

y

Attacks on ff

RIDDOR inj rate

Work force monitoring

– E&D

RIDDOR inj rateWork

force monitoring – E&D

RIDDOR inj rate

Work force monitoring

– E&D

Attacks on ff

Local Pathfinders

• Local engagement and scrutiny testing

• Local Commander and council

• Diverse LA mix• Apr 2012 – Mar 2013• Ongoing

formative/action research

Pathfinders – LA, police, FRSPathfinders – LA, policeNetworkers

Police statistics in the ‘future’

• Single service

• New geographies - LA not PFA

• Future analytical functions of the services?

• Government role?– Adding ‘value’– Professional Expertise – Stats Code– Contextual and policy interpretation– Independence

Police Performance Indicators• Review of SPPF• HMICS lead, JAS support• Draft PIs within 4 HMICS scrutiny areas

– Outcomes– Specialist Policing– Local Policing– Corporate and Support Services

• Pre-reform baseline• Local level indicators

Reform Programme Evaluation

• Why evaluate?

• Requirements – process and impact

• Benefits Realisation / Programme Evaluation

• Partnership working

• Timing

Questions?