POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC. Investor...

24
Investor Presentation December, 2016 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.

Transcript of POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC. Investor...

Page 1: POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC. Investor Presentations2.q4cdn.com/339036663/files/doc_presentations/2016/16-12-PII-IR-… · Investor Presentation December, 2016 POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC. CORPORATE

Investor Presentation

December, 2016

POLARIS INDUSTRIES INC.

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CORPORATE OVERVIEW

2015 Sales by Reporting Segments*1954 Year Polaris was Founded

~8,100 Employees Worldwide

$4.72B Total Company Sales, up 5%

16 Manufacturing Locations

5 Research & Development Centers

~1,800 Dealers In North America

~1,700 Dealers Outside North America

>390,000 Units Shipped Worldwide

>100 Countries – Polaris Products Sold

PII IR DEC 2016 2

78%

14%

8%

Int’l

Canada

United States

Global AdjacentMarkets

*PG&A included in respective segments

2015 Sales by Geography

78%

15%

7%

Motorcycles

Off-RoadVehicles/Snow

Based on 2015 Data

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Q3 sales and net income finished in-line with pre-release expectations

ORV/Snowmobile sales down 23%; Motorcycles down 3%; Global Adjacent Markets up 6%

Results include ~$65 million of costs associated with recall activity

Earnings reported at $0.50 per diluted share, down 78% from prior year

Gross profit margin down 655 bps – volume, mix and warranty pressure, as indicated

N.A. dealer inventory down 10%, in line with company expectations

ORV down 16%; motorcycles up as production has normalized

Q3 Sales & Earnings Finished In-Line With Revised Expectations

Q3 2016 Net IncomeQ3 2016 Sales

3PII IR DEC 2016

Q3 2016 Sales and Income

$1,456.0

$1,185.1

Q3 2015 Q3 2016

$155.2

$32.3

Q3 2015 Q3 2016

($ millions)($ millions)

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Polaris N.A. retail down 9% for Q3 2016 vs. Q3 2015

ORV down; MY’17 shipment delays, RZR recall disruptions; September retail trends improved in line with expectations

Motorcycle retail sales up, Industry down

North American Industry retail trends continue to be weak; Q3 down

Oil/Gas, Ag remain weak, election uncertainty

+11%

+7%

-6%

+6%

-7%-9%

Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

Managing Through Soft Industry Retail Trends

Retail Sales by Business vs. Q3 2015Polaris Retail Sales vs. Prior Year

4PII IR DEC 2016

Q3 2016 N.A. Powersports Retail Sales

(# vehicle units) POLARIS INDUSTRY

Off-Road Vehicles high-single digits % low-single digits %*

Side-by-Sides

ATVs

high-single digits %

low-double digits %

Motorcycles(900cc & above)

high-single digits % high-single digits %

Snowmobiles N/M (off-season) N/M (off-season)

*estimated

N/M = Not Meaningful

(% change, # vehicle units)

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Polaris Q3 2016 N.A. dealer inventory down 10% vs. Q3 2015

ORV down 16% year-over-year

Motorcycles up significantly as expected, shipments normalized

Snowmobiles down – timing, off-season

Dealer inventory levels aggressively monitored

Remain Diligent in Controlling Dealer Inventory Levels in Weak Industry

Total N.A. Dealer InventoryPolaris N.A. Total Dealer Inventory

5PII IR DEC 2016

N.A. Dealer Inventory

Q3 2015 Existing ORVModels

New ORVModels

Snowmobiles Motorcycles Q3 2016

-14%

+3%

-4%

+5% -10%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2016 2015 2014

-10%

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N.A. Powersports Consolidated Share

6PII IR DEC 2016

Clear #1 in N.A. Powersports

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Consolidated Market Share in Units(Using Total Motorcycle Industry)

Honda

Harley

Yamaha

Kawasaki

Can Am

Other

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MotorcyclesOff-Road Vehicles

Remain on Offense with Product7PII IR DEC 2016

MY’17 Key Product Launch Summary

RANGER XP® 1000

More Power

Industry first gas HVAC

3 driver modes

ACE™ 500 / XC 900

More power

Wider, longer

New 850 & 1000

More power

Utility versions

RZR® Turbo – 168 HP

Race inspired ride &

handling

GENERAL™

2 & 4-seats

Turf mode

RIDE COMMAND™

Largest screen

Fastest interface

Most customizable

OCTANE®

104 HP, 76 FT-16 torque

32° lean angle

Modern American Muscle

SLINGSHADE™

#1 requested accessory,

sleek lines, lightweight,

removable T-top panelsRIDE COMMAND™

Industry’s 1st technology

connected vehicle

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$4,719

2015Actual

FY 2016Guidance

2015Actual

2016Guidance

$6.75

2015Actual

FY 2016Guidance

Narrowing Guidance as Visibility Improves Nearing Year-end8PII IR DEC 2016

2016 Full Year Guidance

2015Actual

2016Guidance

2015Actual

2016Guidance

SegmentsTotal Company Sales & EPS

Assumptions

Protect market share – increased incentives

Dealer inventory down mid- to high-single digits %

F/X = minus ~35¢ per share

Share count down ~3%

Net income $ down 48% to 51%

Gross margins down 380 to 390 bps

mid- to high-

single digits %(unchanged from

Pre-Release) 47% to 50%

$3.40 to $3.60(narrowed)

Down high-single to

low-double digits %

ORV ORV

PG&A

PG&ASnow

$3,708.9

Snow $698.3

UpLow-single

digits %

VictoryIndian

Slingshot

VictoryIndian

Slingshot

PG&A

PG&A

PG&APG&A

W&T

Defense

W&T

Defense

Up high-single

digits %$312.1

Sales EPS (diluted) Off-Road Vehicles

/Snowmobiles

Motorcycles Global Adjacent

Markets

($ millions) ($ millions)

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∆ from

Q3’15

25%

0%

35%

Q3 2015 Q3 2016

Q3 2016 ORV/Snowmobile Segment Sales

ORV down 25% due to weak industry / recall impact

Delayed MY’17 shipments for safety revalidation

Promotional environment remained aggressive

PG&A flat; delayed ’17 PG&A shipments with wholegoods

ORV average selling price down 8% in Q3

9PII IR DEC 2016

Off-Road Vehicles (ORV) / Snowmobiles

($ millions)

23%$923.4

$1,193.5

ORV

PG&A

Snow

ORV

PG&A

Snow

Weak Industry / Recall Activity Overshadowing Improved Execution

RANGER XP® 1000

Ranch Edition

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Q3 2015 Q3 2016

10%

2%

Q3 2016 Motorcycle Segment Sales

Motorcycles down 3%

Indian and Victory up

Slingshot down – shipment timing

Full-year guidance revised down due to weaker industry

trends

Average selling price was down 1% in Q3 – product mix

Share Gains Continue10PII IR DEC 2016

Motorcycles

($ millions)

3%$183.2$188.7

PG&A

VictoryIndian

Slingshot

VictoryIndian

Slingshot

PG&A

∆ from

Q3’15

INDIAN SPRINGFIELD™Indian® Roadmaster®

HOOLIGAN RACING Indian® Super Hooligan Scout® Sixty

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Q3 2016 GAM Segment Sales

Q3 2015 Q3 2016

GAM 6% due to Taylor-Dunn acquisition

PG&A up due to Taylor-Dunn acquisition

Average selling price for GAM was up 1% in Q3

Building Existing Portfolio & Capabilities11PII IR DEC 2016

Global Adjacent Markets (GAM)

($ millions)

PG&A PG&A

Work &

Transportation/

Defense

6%$78.5$73.8

Work &

Transportation/

Defense

14%

5%

∆ from

Q3’15

BIGFOOT™ Econo Cab, 48V

A customizable electric powered utility vehicle

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ORV

SnowMotorcycles

GAM

Q3 2016

ORV/Snow

Motorcycles

GAM

Q3 2016

ORV70%

12%

11%

7%

ORV / Snow60%

19%

21%

Accessories

Parts

Apparel

Q3 2016

Parts40%

Accessories47%

13%

14%

EMEA66%

Asia Pacific

20%

EMEA

AP

LA

Q3 2016

InternationalParts, Garments & Accessories (PG&A)

12PII IR DEC 2016

Q3 2016 Supplemental Sales Performance

Motorcycles

Global Adjacent Markets (GAM)

Snowmobiles

Motorcycles

Global Adjacent Markets (GAM)

Apparel

13%

14%

LatinAmerica

10%

1%

5%

11%

1%

3%

8%

12%

3%

19%

14%

Q3 Sales 1% to $224.4 Million∆ from

Q3'15

∆ from

Q3'15

Q3 Sales 8% to $141.0 Million (-7% constant currency)

∆ from

Q3'15

∆ from

Q3'15

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$740 million fully-integrated manufacturer, distributor,

retailer & installer of off-road Jeep and truck

accessories

75 retail stores, 6 distribution centers, ~1,700 employees

Strong, experienced leadership team

TAP to continue as distinct business

Anticipated Reporting Structure After CloseTransamerican Auto Parts (TAP)

Profitable Addition to Polaris Aftermarket Portfolio with Minimal Integration Risk13PII IR DEC 2016

ACQUISITION: TRANSAMERICAN AUTO PARTS (10/19/16)

Existing Aftermarket Brands

Steve EastmanPresident – PG&A / Aftermarket

30+ Years Retail Experience

New Reporting Segment: Aftermarket PG&A

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Except for historical information contained herein, the matters set forth in this document, including but not limited to management’s

expectations regarding 2016 and 2017 sales, shipments, margins, currencies, net income and cash flow, the opportunities for expansion

and diversification of the Company’s business and the Company’s guidance on earnings per share are forward-looking statements that

involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking

statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include such factors as product offerings, promotional activities and pricing strategies by

competitors; manufacturing operation expansion initiatives; acquisition integration costs; product recalls; warranty expenses; foreign

currency exchange rate fluctuations; environmental and product safety regulatory activity; effects of weather; commodity costs;

uninsured product liability claims; uncertainty in the retail and wholesale credit markets; performance of affiliate partners; changes in tax

policy and overall economic conditions, including inflation, consumer confidence and spending and relationships with dealers and

suppliers. Investors are also directed to consider other risks and uncertainties discussed in our 2015 annual report and Form 10-K filed

by the Company with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The Company does not undertake any duty to any person to provide

updates to its forward-looking statements.

The data source for retail sales figures included in this presentation is registration information provided by Polaris dealers in North

America and compiled by the Company or Company estimates. The Company must rely on information that its dealers supply

concerning retail sales, and other retail sales data sources and this information is subject to revision.

Non-GAAP Measure - Constant Currency Reporting. This presentation includes information regarding the Company’s 2016 actual results

and full year expectations on a constant currency basis, which is a non-GAAP measure, as well as on a GAAP basis. For purpose of

comparison, the results on a constant currency basis uses the respective prior year exchange rates for the comparative period to

enhance the visibility of the underlying business trends, excluding the impact of translation arising from foreign currency exchange rate

fluctuations.

14PII IR DEC 2016

SAFE HARBOR

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STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES

POLARIS CUSTOMER USAGE PROFILES

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

FINANCIAL POSITION Q3 2016

OTHER FULL YEAR EXPECTATIONS Q3 2016

INCOME FROM FINANCIAL SERVICES Q3 2016

FOREIGN CURRENCIES EXPOSURES FOR POLARIS Q3 2016

TAYLOR-DUNN ACQUISITION

MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS

15PII IR DEC 2016

APPENDICES

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Strategic Objectives

Vision & StrategyVISION

Fuel the passion of riders, workers and

outdoor enthusiasts around the world

by delivering innovative, high quality

vehicles, products, services and

experiences that enrich their lives.

STRATEGY

Polaris will be a highly profitable, customer centric, $8B global

enterprise by 2020. We will make the best off-road and on-road

vehicles and products for recreation, transportation and work

supporting consumer, commercial and military applications.

Our winning advantage is our innovative culture, operational

speed and flexibility, and passion to make quality products

that deliver value to our customers.

Best in Powersports PLUS

Growth through Adjacencies

5-8% annual organic growth

>$2B from acquisitions & new markets

Global Market Leadership

LEAN Enterprise is Competitive Advantage

>33% of Polaris revenue

Significant Quality,

Delivery & Cost Improvement

Strong Financial Performance

Sustainable, profitable growth

Net Income Margin >10%

Guiding Principles

Best People, Best Team

Safety & Ethics Always

Customer Loyalty

Performance Priorities

Growth

Margin Expansion

Product & Quality Leadership

LEAN Enterprise

>$8 Billion by 2020 12% CAGR >10% of Sales by 2020 13% CAGR

16PII IR DEC 2016

Strategy and Objectives Remain Valid & Achievable

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SnowmobilesMotorcycles

POLARIS CUSTOMER USAGE PROFILES

PII IR DEC 2016

Off-Road Vehicles

17

Die-Hard "Biker"

Motorcycle Enthusiast

Show-off Rider

Commuter Rider

Weekend Rider

Trail/ Touring

Off-Trail/ Deep Snow

On/Off Trail Recreation/

Utility

AVERAGE

AGE50 43 44 43 47 52 56 42

INCOME ~$100k ~$100k -- ~$90k ~$90k ~$100k - $125k $160k ~$90k

MALE

FEMALE

91%

9%

91%

9%

98%

2%

87%

13%

75%

25%

90%

10%

95%

5%

90%

10%

PRIMARY

USE

Work & Play

Farm/Ranch

Property Maint.

Rec/Trail

Hunt

Mostly Play

Rec/Trail

Dunes

Property

Play & Work

Rec/Trail

Property

Farm/Ranch

Work & Play

Rec/Trail

Property Maint.

Hunt

Rec/Trail

Hunt

Utility

Cruising, Day trips

around town

Commute

Cruising,

Day trips,

Commute

Recreation

on & off trail

Trail Riding

Private Property Maintenance

Farm/Ranch

Hunt/Fish

Desert/Dunes

MY15, except GENERAL (MY16)

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58%

168%

96% 99% 80%

Polaris PeerAvg.*

S&P500

Russell2000

DJIA

$194$230

$644

$209

$433

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dividends Repurchases

Return on Invested CapitalSales & Earnings Per Share

33%$2,657

21%$3,210

18%$3,777

19%$4,480

5%$4,719

mid- to high-single

digits %

$3.20$4.40

$5.40$6.65 $6.75

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sales EPS

39% 40% 39% 38%32%

12%

20%

26%

16%13%

9% 9% 9% 9% 8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Polaris Peer Average* S&P 500 Average

Strong Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Generation

Dividends & Share Repurchase5-Year Total Return

18PII IR DEC 2016

FINANCIAL STRENGTH & FLEXIBILITY

Dividend 4%

Share Buyback

Continues

Expectations

($ millions)

*PEERS: ACAT, BC, DE, HOG, WGO, TTC

Industry-

Leading!

Nov. 30, 2011 – Nov. 30, 2016(Including Dividend Yield)

5-Year CAGR: Sales 19%, EPS 26%

Guidance

$3.40 TO

$3.60

($ millions)

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Q3 2016 Polaris Financial Position

19PII IR DEC 2016

Capital Summary September 2016Cash Drivers

Fav/(Unfav)

Sept 2015

Cash $ 123 -46%

Debt /Capital Lease Obligations $ 437 +39%

Shareholders’ Equity $ 928 -1%

Total Capital $1,365 +9%

Debt to Total Capital 32% (+7%)

2015

Operating cash flow down

Factory inventory up year-over-year

Cap Ex expected to be slightly higher than 2015

Operating Cash Flow

Financial Position Remains Solid

CashYE 2015

OperatingActivities

Dividends Capex Repayments ShareRepur-chase

Acquisition Other CashQ3 2016

$155

$426 -$105

-$155

-$28-$154

-$55 $39 $123

$464 $426

YTD Q3 2015 YTD Q3 2016 2016

Up

Double-digits

($ millions) ($ millions)

($ millions)

Expectations

Q3 2016 Summary

2016 Expectations

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20PII IR DEC 2016

Operating expenses: increase ~300 bps, as a % of sales (legal & other recall

related costs / acquisitions)

Income from financial services: grow faster than total company sales

Income taxes: approximately equal to 2015 income tax rate of 33.6%

International sales: about flat with 2015

PG&A sales: grow faster than overall company

Other FY 2016 Expectations

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58% 60%

YTDQ3 2015

YTDQ3 2016

Retail CreditWholesale Credit PA Receivables

21PII IR DEC 2016

Income from Financial Services

Other Other

WholesaleCredit

WholesaleCredit

RetailFinancing

RetailFinancing

Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2015 Q3 2016

Portfolio Remains Healthy

INCOME FROM FINANCIAL SERVICES

2016 expectations: grow faster than total Company sales

Q3 income from financial services about flat – volume related

New Wells Fargo P.A. partner working well

$19.1

1%

$19.26%

$1,246.3$1,321.1

($ millions) ($ millions)

32% 33%

YTDQ3 2015

YTDQ3 2016

Approval Rate Penetration Rate

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22PII IR DEC 2016

Foreign Currency Exposure for Polaris

Foreign Currency Hedging

Contracts Outstanding

Currency Impact on Net Income

Compared to Prior Year Period

Foreign Currency

Currency

Position

Q4 ’16 Cash Flow

Exposure Hedged (Approx.)

Notional

Amounts(US $ in Millions)

Avg. Exchange

Rate of Open

Contracts

FY 2016

(Expectation)

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Long 80% $79 $0.72 to 1 CAD Negative

Australian Dollar (AUD) Long 70% $23 $0.73 to 1 AUD Negative

Euro (EUR) Long 0% - - Slightly Negative

Japanese Yen (JPY) Short 5% $0 117 Yen to $1 Negative

Mexican Peso (MXN) Short 100% $23 18 Peso to $1 Positive

F/X Impacts vs. Prior Year

($ in millions)

Actual

Q3 2016

FY 2016

Expectations

Sales ($2) ($35)

Gross Profit ($0) ($45)

Pretax Income ($6) ($35)

Open F/X Hedging Contracts as of September 30, 2016

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Burden Carriers

Tow Tractors

Stock Chasers

Personal Carriers

Utility Vehicles

ACQUISITION: TAYLOR-DUNN (3/7/16)

23PII IR DEC 2016

Taylor Dunn Product LineTaylor-Dunn Overview

Leader in light-industrial and commercial vehicles

2015 sales: ~1% of total Polaris (80% N.A.)

~80 models, ~95% electric

~240 dealers worldwide

150+ Employees; HQ and manufacturing in Anaheim, CA

Customers: Industrial, warehouse, schools/universities

Business expected to be neutral to 2016 earnings

Established dealer network

Large installed base

Industrial market presence

Strong brand recognition

Strategic Fit with Work & Transportation (W&T)

Expands Products and Channel Access to Polaris W&T Business

MSRP – $5,500 to $48,500

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19 In-House Manufacturing Facilities Worldwide24PII IR DEC 2016

MANUFACTURING LOCATIONS

Monterrey

MEXICO

SxS, Engines

Spirit Lake & Milford

IOWA

Motorcycles,

SxS, ACE, GEM

Roseau

MINNESOTA

Snow, ATV, SxS

Osceola

WISCONSIN

Engines

Bourran

FRANCE

Goupil

Chanas &

Aix-les-Bains

FRANCE (2)

Aixam Mega

Cuyahoga Falls

OHIO

Kolpin

Riverside,

CALIFORNIA

Pro Armor

Shanghai,

CHINA

Hammerhead

Huntsville

ALABAMA

(2016)

SxS, Slingshot

Opole

POLAND

ATV, SxS

Jaipur

INDIA

Eicher JV

Sandpoint

IDAHO

Timbersled

Spearfish

SOUTH DAKOTA

Motorcycle Paint

Anaheim,

CALIFORNIA

Taylor-Dunn

Chula Vista

& Banning

CALIFORNIA (2)

Transamerican

Auto Parts