PoC and Private Sector in Post Disaster/Conflict settings: the need for a systemic approach

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PoC and Private Sector in Post Disaster/Conflict settings: the need for a

systemic approach“Peace and Stability Operations Training and Education Workshop”

(PSOTEW)

Governance Innovation for Security & Development Track 24--28 March 2014, George Mason University, Arlington Campus

Patrik Willot [email protected]

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Thread line

1. What are the needs?

2. What are the windows of opportunity for Military support?

3. Necessity of a Systemic Approach

4. Identifying the Triggers

5. Some examples…Patrik Willot March 2014

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Some characteristics of post-conflict situations (in Private Sector Development in Post-Conflict Countries. N. Mac Sweeney, Cambridge UK, DCED 2008)

Patrik Willot March 2014

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PoC Examples…more and more Urbantherefore: no food, guerilla, human density, etc. Rule of Law:

Local Police must be paid their monthly salary in a situation where local GOV unable to do it. Cf. Bangui CAR

Local Police must be armed without delay. Cf. arms embargo on Haiti made it impossible

Functioning markets e.g. access of food to towns (agriculture, roads, bridges) – a priority- before Sustainable Economy

Functioning Economy: Youth at work with Cash for Work schemes, Gender positive discrimination towards Women, securing access to income generating activities, etc.

Taking into account seasons and seasonality (agricultural crops, meat supply –transhumance-) or religious (meat transformation –ethnic/religious e.g. Islamic by tradition in some Christian or Buddhist communities). Cf. Bangui CAR

Particular attention to Gender issues


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Sociology, Social & Cultural Anthropology, Systems theory”


Necessity of an approach mixing analysis of structure, functions and time to determine the TRIGGERS

“Everything is connected to everything else” (Source: Lt. General Zinni’s Twenty Lessons Learned for Humanitarian Assistance and Peace Operations”)

“Interdependence is the first of the fundamentals of a comprehensive approach” (Source: Guiding Principles for Stabilization and Reconstruction –GPSR- Para 5.1 p. 29, PKSOI)

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Need for an integrated perception in community development

Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction ofNAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005


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Society Structure, triggers, evolution in N-dimensions

Trigger 1: Basic needs are covered

Trigger N-1: Economic activity of the Private Sector

Trigger N: Rule of Law is functioningPatrik Willot March 2014

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Key Success factors…unanimity in different sources


Keys for redefining intervention tools in analysis of post-crisis (Source: URD Group France 2010):

1. Avoid “Blue Print” mechanisms based on a unique evolution scenario and take into account the multiplicity of directions that the “crisis exit” may take

2. Favor the appropriation of analysis and diagnostic by local actors by putting into place inclusive and participative mechanisms through negotiation with State and Civil Society actors

3. Reinforce the sharing of information and analysis

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Key Success factors…(2)


Among the success factors listed in the “Core Pre-deployment Training Materials”

Credibility

Legitimacy

Promotion of National & Local Ownership

Source: Peace Operations Training Institute. March 2014

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Why? What do “Beneficiaries” think?1. Credibility gap

1. Disaster/Post Disaster: is GOV in control? No and then maybe Yes...but 1) absorption capacity; 2) political control

2. Who are these foreign troops (MINUSTAH: before and after, U.N. /ex-colony). What is the strategy of the big powers behind?

3. U.N. troops are GOV troops: economic source of revenues, Nepal/Cholera, neighbors Somali/Kenya

2. Legitimacy gap1. Military take stock: by default in Disaster, by choice of

GOV in Post Disaster2. Who are these NGOs? Tsunami: work done for 80% by

20%of non-clusterised NGOs (Cluster = U.N. = GOV) => Therefore no humanitarian help for rebels – Syria)


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= > Windows for Military support in Crisis


Perception by Civil Society of external « help »

Crisis Post Crisis

Human made Political Political Natural Non Political Political

Nature of Military action Crisis Post Crisis Human made By mandate By mandate Natural By necessity By mandate When by mandate => possible conflict of interest

Capacity to Build & Operate in Crisis

Infrastructure Rule of Law Free Markets for Essentials

Health Food/Cash for Work

Hope

Government No No No No No No Civil Society Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Business No No Yes No No No Dev. Banks No No No No Yes No NGOs Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Military Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

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Required Thinking in terms of “Value Chains”


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Linking the different parts……

Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation EffortsStages and Plan for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction ofNAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces

Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction ofNAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005

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Basic Principles for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction. Source: Master Plan for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of NAD and Nias Islands North Sumatra Provinces, Republic of Indonesia 2005


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Example: Importance of Women in Post Crisis economics


Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008

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Women role and interest in Infrastructure Development



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Women role and interest



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Women role and interest



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Relevant actions on the triggers need to be thought and evaluated with the criteria inspired from OECD DAC


Credible and Communicated: the partners including the civil society need to be informed and need to believe in actions and results

Impactful : The positive and negative changes produced by an intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended.

• What has happened as a result of the action?• What real difference has the activity made to the beneficiaries?• How many people have been affected?

Effective: A measure of the extent to which an action attains its objectives.• To what extent were the objectives achieved / are likely to be achieved?• What were the major factors influencing the achievement or non-achievement of

the objectives?

Efficient: Efficiency measures the outputs -- qualitative and quantitative -- in relation to the inputs in relation to cost, timing, second best option

Sustainable: Sustainability is concerned with measuring whether the benefits of an activity are likely to continue after donor funding has been withdrawn.

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High-Level Gaps & Challenges (Source: GPS)Gaps = weaknesses in knowledge, recurring all the time &

Challenges = shortfalls in practice….among those1. Lack of an agreed overall vision or “storyline” to set

strategic direction2. Insufficient realism in the timelines for key recovery

outcomes => unreasonable expectations from all parties

3. Inadequate links between priorities across the security, rule of law, governance, economic & social arenas

4. Insufficient understanding of host nation context & needs


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Years later….

Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008

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Summary


Systemic approach is needed but requires: Credibility (hidden agenda)/Communication a Holistic approach a System approach (structure, evolution, process) a Participatory approach => National & Local Ownership

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Backup



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Backup


What was the main lesson learnt from Joint Evaluation of Emergency Assistance to Rwanda (JEEAR)?“The evaluation was highly critical of the absence of an effective political and military response to the genocide by the international community. In such a context, humanitarian action effectively became a substitute for political action and humanitarian agencies were forced to work in extremely challenging, almost impossible situations.”

Source: The Sphere Project. Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response. John Bolton 2014

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Keys to a Systemic approach to SocietySociety• Has a structure• Has functions as in “Processes”• Has a dynamic evolution from one unstable equilibrium

point to another

Society in post crisis undergoes threats to its structure, processes and evolution

Societies in poor countries are even more unstable=>…what about Societies in post crisis in poor

countries….


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Backup

Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008

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Backup

Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International

Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008

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Backup

Patrik Willot March 2014Source: Lessons Learned from “Building Back Aceh & Nias Better” BRR Tokio International

Conference on Africa Development 29 May 2008

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PoC = a definition, its Principles, the sequence? The Protection of Civilians (PoC) refers, among others, to

efforts to secure the rights of civilians to access essential services and resources and to contribute to a secure, stable and just environment for civilians in the long term (PoC Military Reference Guide – PKSOI- January 2013)

Time line = Peace Support Operations (PSO) or Military Operations during Armed Conflict (MOAC)

5 Principles


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PoC Military Reference Guide - the 5-45 FWK


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Society as a “living” organism, therefore “a complex system”


“Process” analysis is required to analyse “Value Chains(example: seasons-> crops, safe roads->access to market, market transparent-> food for urban population. Meat market and commerce controlled by ethnic/religious group. CAR, Uganda, etc.)

Value chains, as any chains, are only as solid as their weakest element, one suffice to break the chain

Value chains need to be tackled very upstream in critical path since errors and benefits de-multiply along the chain

PoC and Private Sector in Post Disaster/Conflict settings: the need for a systemic approach

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