Phosphorus fertilizer demand & supply; an industry perspective. Rob Norton, IPNI ANZ http://anz.ipni.net

Phosphorus in Agriculture Workshop, Waite Campus. Sept 20, 2012

History of Phosphate Fertilizer •  Early sources were mostly animal based ̶

bones, guano, manure •  Treatment of bones with acid to increase P solubility started early to mid 1800s

•  Sulfuric acid treatment process of bones and P minerals (apatite) was patented in mid 1800s.

•  Today most P fertilizer production is based on acidification of apatite from phosphate rock (PR).

P = 0.44 P2O5 PR = 13.6% P (30.9% P2O5) BPL = 0.20% P (0.46% P2O5)

Guano mining, Chincha Islands, Peru, 1860

Guano mining, Chincha Islands, Peru 1860

U.S. phosphate operation, late 1800s

A “New” Product •  Lawes had patented the acidulation process. •  Lawes and Gilbert 1843 set out to assess

the efficacy of SSP. •  Established Broadbalk at Rothamsted (UK)

oh his family farm.

•  Established to see if chemical sources of nutrients were as good as farmyard manure.

Sir John Bennett Lawes

Sir Joseph Henry Gilbert

Australian experience – “English” Superphosphate – JD Custance 1880’s

Prof Lowrie (RAC), H Pye (Dookie) + many others

Fertilizer Nil 34lb 46 lb 64 lb 94 lb Yield bu/ac 24 28 30.5 30 31.5

1.6 to 2.1

C Donald, 1965. “Innovation in Agriculture”

45 field trials – 60 lb/ac SSP, 8.1 to 13.4 bu/ac (67 kg/SSP raised yields from 0.54 t/ha to 0.90 t/ha)

Map of World P Resources

Source: IFDC

Formation of Phosphate Rock Deposits

•  Most (>80%) PR used in fertilizer production is sedimentary, but igneous deposits are also used.

•  Sedimentary PRs were formed in continental shelf marine environments, and are thus taken from present or former continental margins.

•  Igneous PR was formed mostly in shield areas and rift zones.

Generalized sedimentary deposit (Florida)

PR Mining Techniques

•  Most phosphate rock is extracted through open pit mining techniques such as

–  Draglines –  Bucket wheel excavators –  Front end loader removal

Florida

Idaho North Carolina

Ore Impurities and Beneficiation

•  Initial removal of impurities from PR ore is called beneficiation

•  Beneficiation of PR involves removal of materials such as sand, clay, carbonates, organics, and iron oxide

•  Beneficiation may involve –  Screening (wet or dry) –  Washing –  Hydrocyclones –  Calcination –  Flotation –  Magnets

Aerial view of beneficiation plant

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nsWorld phosphate rock production, 1981-2008

11992-1997 FSU includes Kazakhstan and Russia data; afterwards, Russia only. 2Year 2008 estimated. Compiled from USGC Mineral Commodities Reports, 1983-2009.

United States

Morocco

China

Former Soviet Union

Others

Tunisia

Brazil Jordan

Rather flat at 120 to 165 MT per yr

PR production and export trends (IFA) Region Production Exports Use 6 Year use

trend West Europe 817 62 5 616 -5.0%

Central Europe

2 033 -1.6%

E. Europe & C. Asia

13 299 2 418 13 512 3.1%

North America 26 152 29 037 -3.6%

Latin America 8 202 618 10 641 2.0%

Africa 43 241 16 079 27 295 2.0%

West Asia (M. East)

13 642 8 309 7 126 -0.7%

South Asia 2 068 8 867 5.2%

East Asia 71 569 1 482 74 423 6.8%

Oceania 3 121 1 016 3 357 7.6%

Total 182 111 29 984 182 111 2.0%

Phosphate mining, Australia

•  Phosphate Hill Mine – rock phosphate •  Use S from the Lead/Zinc/Silver deposits at Mount Isa. •  Production capacity of 950 kt MAP/DAP

Primary  raw  material  for  P  fer.lizer  is  phosphate  rock:  [Ca3(PO4)2]3·∙CaF2      

Phosphate Rock (9-18% P)

Wet Process Acid or Phosphoric Acid

(18-25% P)

Ordinary Super Phosphate

(9% P)

Nitrophosphates (6-12% P)

Diammonium Phosphate &

Monoammonium Phosphate (20-27% P)

Triple Super Phosphate

(20% P)

NPKs

CaSO4·XH2O

+ H2SO4 + H2SO4 + HNO3

+ Phosphate Rock + Ammonia

Current use of P – 1960-2010

!

384 kt P/y 30Mha crops 10Mha pastures ~10 kg/P ha 1970 12 Mha crops 15 Mha pastures ~12 kg P/ha Globally: 12,300 kt P/y ~3% of use.

Global fertilizer P trade & use. ! P!!fertilizer!production!and!trade!

(kt!P)!%Growth! %DAP!!! Prodn& Export& Import& Consumd&

West%Europe% 77& 35& 461& 503& 71.9%& 67%&Central%Europe% 130& 63& 67& 134& 72.1%& 35%&E.%Europe%&%C.%Asia%

1205& 930& 60& 335& 2.9%& 51%&

North%America% 2598! 1238! 250& 1611& 70.2%& 58%&Latin%America% 649& 171& 1194& 1672& 1.2%& 19%&Africa% 1281& 1103! 202& 381& 4.1%& 57%&West%Asia%(M.%East)%

526& 322& 291& 495& 0.8%& 59%&

South%Asia% 852& 0& 1982& 2835! 4.3%& 98%&East%Asia% 5147& 1257! 493& 4384! 4.6%& 50%&Oceania% 171& 74& 212& 309& 71.3%& 73%&Total! 12673& 5255& 5255& 12672& 2.4%& 55%&

2010 production, trade and consumption of TSP, MAP and DAP (kt P), and annual growth in consumption (mean of 2001-2010). IFA stats 2012.

Domestic trade and use of P

P Source 2002 2006 2011 Imported Domestic Imported Domestic Imported Domestic P Rock 711 2,083 472 2,131 408* 1936* MAP 444 115 656 256 557 159 DAP 250 480 236 343 200 210 TSP** 194 - 107 - 47 - SSP 67 1,231 39 1,027 80 556 Exports of AP’s 284 156 388

Kt of product FIFA figures, for TSP, PR 2010/11 SSP & Livestock Numbers

P Fertilizer use by Crop Global Australia Crop Category

2006/7 Mt P

Share% 2006/7 kt P

Share%

Wheat 2.77 16.4 125 30.7 Rice 2.11 4.8 - - Maize 2.15 4.9 - -

All Cereal 7.83 46.6 235 55.5 Soybean 1.14 6.8 - - Oil Palm 0.13 0.8 - -

All Oilseed 2.07 12.3 33 7.7 Cotton 0.70 4.1 1 0.3 Sugar Crops 0.66 3.9 14 3.1 Fruit & Veg. 2.99 17.8 21 4.9 Other Crops 2.55 15.3 89 30.7 Total 16.81 100.0 432 100.0

Heffer, 2009

~65% on field crops ~30% on pastures 2011 Use NSW 85 ktP Vic 99 ktP Qld 23 ktP WA 91 ktP SA 74 ktP Tas 13 ktP

P removal by crop/product (2002-2009)

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Fruit Grain Livestock Sugar Vegetable

Partial nutrient balance for P

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PNB P Used P Removed

P – PNB – Global = 0.7

Fixen et al., pers, comm.

Mining Balance Building

P Resource Assessments.

•  Peak phosphorus ‘Hubbert’ curve*, indicating that production will eventually reach a maximum, after which it will decline (source: Cordell, Drangert and White, 2009)

•  Sustainable P Futures

•  Data from USGS

•  The amount of remaining phosphate rock reserves and resources has become an issue of speculation” (IFDC, 2010). * Derived from oil resource assessment

Economic and potentially economic phosphate deposits of the world

McClellan and Van Kauwenbergh, 2004.

Sedimentary deposits comprise 80% of RP production

Billion tonnes 2002 USGS

2009 USGS

Years supply

2010 IFDC

Years supply

Reserve 13 15 80 60 380 Reserve base 47 47 290 290 900

World rock phosphate estimates with time (Mt)

•  Reserves = economically mined at time of determination •  Reserve base = economic & some uneconomic

resources •  Annual use =200 Mt PR increasing @1% p.a. •  2050 estimate +38% (Africa & Eastern Europe) •  IFDC report increased Moroccan reserves and base *4.

Current USGS PR Estimates

PR production (kt) Reserves (Mt) Resource (Mt)

2010 2011 USGS 2011 USGS 2012 IFDC 2010 Australia 2,600 2,700 82 250 3,500 China 68,000 72,000 3,700 3,700 16,800 Morocco 25,800 27,000 50,000 50,000 170,000 Russia 11,000 11,000 1,300 1,300 4,300 Tunisia 7,600 5,000 100 100 1,200 United States 25,800 28,400 1,400 1,400 49,000 Other 40,200 44,900 8418 14,250 45,200 World 181,000 191,000 65,000 71,000 290,000

Nambian Off-Shore Resource

1500 km Saudi Arabia

The Georgina Basin, (the Legend phosphate project) is one of the largest undeveloped phosphate deposits in the world

Minemakers is also developing the Wonarah Rock Phosphate Project.

Australian Phosphate

Source  Rate  

Time   Place  

Summary •  PR & fertilizers are commodities traded globally

•  Clearly, the world is not on the verge of running out of phosphate raw materials.

•  non-renewable natural resource of immense importance to for production and deserves the very best stewardship.

•  Global TraPs Project (whole P supply chain) – (Transdisciplinary Processes for Sustainable Phosphorus Management)

– Sustain food production – Minimize environmental impacts