Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future...
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Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR) Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT) Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS) Center for Political and Democratic Reforms, Inc. (CPDRI)
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Transcript of Philippines-China Security Relations and the South China Sea Disputes: Current Situation and Future...
Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research (PIPVTR)
Asian Institute of Tourism (AIT) Philippine Association for Chinese Studies (PACS)
Center for Political and Democratic Reforms, Inc. (CPDRI)
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
The modern history of Philippines-‐China rela5ons is a tale of connec5ng and distancing, of love and hate, of amity and enmity, admira5on and admoni5on, and of hedging, engaging, balancing, and guessing.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
The ancient history of Philippines-‐China rela5ons is a very long history of good neighborliness, harmony and mutual respect.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• The Kingdom of Butuan was in contact with the Song dynasty of China between 960 and 1279 AD.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• On 17 March 1001, King Kiling of Butuan (a Mindanao province) organized the first tributary mission to China
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• In 1417, Paduka Batara, the Sultan of Sulu, went to China for a tributary mission during the reign of Emperor Yung Lo (Pinyin, Yung Le).
• Between 1420-‐1424, exchanged missions between China and Mindanao occurred
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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Ancient Chinese Map showing Philippine Islands
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• 1945-‐1949 Moment of Amity (AVer WW2) • 1949-‐1974 Era of HosYlity (During the Cold War) • 1975-‐1995 NormalizaYon Period (Comprehensive RelaYons) • 1995-‐2000 Troubled RelaYons (in the Mischief Reef) • 2000-‐2005 Rebuilding and Sustaining Friendship Enhancing CooperaYon (Use of China’s soV power and charm offensives) • 2005-‐2009 “Golden Age” for Strategic Partnership • 2009-‐2011 Turbulent Moments • 2012 Standoff (in the Scarborough Shoal) • 2012-‐2013 Years of Friendly Exchanges?
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• VISITS TO CHINA BY PHILIPPINE PRESIDENTS – President Ferdinand E. Marcos: 7 June 1975
– President Corazon C. Aquino: 14 April 1988 – President Fidel V. Ramos: 25 April 1993
– President Joseph E. Estrada: 16 May 2000
– President Gloria Macapagal-‐Arroyo: • 29 October 2001 • 1-‐3 September 2004
• 27 October-‐2 November 2006
• 21 April 2007 • 5-‐6 June 2007 • 1-‐2 October 2007 • 30 March -‐1 April 2008
• 7-‐10 August 2008 • 23-‐27 October 2008 • 8-‐9 June 2010
2005 THE GOLDEN
AGE OF PHILIPPINES-
CHINA RELATIONS
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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State visit to China of President Benigno Aquino III 1 September 2011
• Both countries agreed that the Joint Ac5on Plan for Strategic Coopera5on signed by the two sides on 29 October 2009 will conYnue to guide cooperaYon in all fields.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• Philippines-‐China RelaYons are comprehensive spanning diplomaYc, social, cultural, economic and military aspects
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• Then Chinese President Hu declared the 2012 and 2013 as the Philippines-‐China Years of Friendly Exchanges.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• Situa5on in the Scarborough Shoal • RP Submission of WPS Claims to Interna5onal Tribunal
• Increasing Tensions in the 2nd Thomas (Ayungin Shoal)
• Uncertain5es on the passage of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
• Mari5me na5onalism
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Scarborough Shoal Situa5on – EffecYvely taken over by China in May 2012 aVer the standoff
– China fully controls now all fishing acYviYes in the area
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• RP Submission of WPS Claims to Interna5onal Tribunal – PH lost paYence of direct bilateral talks to peacefully seele disputes (1995-‐2012)
– China was embarrassed and ignored the arbitraYon. – PH considered the arbitraYon a “moral victory”.
– China emphasized the need for direct talks to seele disputes peacefully
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Increasing Tensions in the 2nd Thomas Shoal (Ayungin Shoal) – China thinks that PH is strengthening its presence in the shoal
– China wants the grounded ship removed
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Uncertain5es on the Passage of the COC – Vietnam and the Philippines want to
double up the process in passing the COC
– Malaysia and Brunei approve the general principle of having a COC but they remain quite on the issue
– Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand are anxious to pass the COC but not pushing hard for it
– Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos seem to be disinterested on the issue of the COC
– China is not in a hurry to pass the COC as it is saYsfied with the DOC. It wants to implement first the DOC.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Mari5me na5onalism – Territorial disputes between the Philippines and China have triggered naYonalist reacYons from their respecYve ciYzens.
– Involvement of the emoYonal public in the territorial disputes complicate the nature of the already complex problem in the South China Sea.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• Fate of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
• Result of Interna5onal Arbitra5on • Status of the Scarborough Shoal
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Code of Conduct in the South China Sea – If passed, its departure from the DOC will not be far as the current draV talks about generaliYes and does not specify measures to account possible violators. • Though it will be legally binding, ASEAN has a poor track record in enforcing regional rules.
– Thus, bilateralism maeers strongly in enforcement. • PH and PRC have to cul5vate be`er bilateral rela5ons.
– COC does not aim to seele sovereignty disputes. • It aims to provide rules for “good manners and right conduct” at sea to avoid
untoward incidents and arm situaYon in the mariYme domain of the South China Sea.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Code of Conduct in the South China Sea – If not passed, claimants are not prevented from pursuing unilateral acYons that can open the Pandora’s box of accidents and miscalculaYon of risks
– Unilateral acYons can encourage “arms racing” behavior of claimants to deter one another from intruding in their claimed mariYme areas.
– Rule of para-‐military force (if not convenYonal force) rather than rule of law will prevail in the South China Sea
– Philippines-‐China security rela5ons will be in the constant “guessing game”, if not in the perpetual conflict.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Result of Interna5onal Arbitra5on – If PH wins the case • InternaYonal recogniYon of Philippine mariYme rights will have profound and problemaYc implicaYons for the rest of the claimants (from moral victory to legal victory). • PH sYll needs to talk to China bilaterally for enforcement.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Result Interna5onal Arbitra5on – If PH loses the case, that’s the end of its mariYme claims • Moral victory for China? • Nightmare for the rest of the claimants? • Will PH remove its faciliYes in its occupied land features?
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Status of Scarborough Shoal – Good: PromoYon of open fishing acYviYes and coordinated mariYme patrols
– Bad: China to ground ship on the shoal to establish a more permanent physical presence.
– PH will maintain safe distance as a prevenYve measure.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
• Overlapping fishing acYviYes and increasing mariYme patrols of parYes around the disputed waters in the South China Sea can raise the possibility of accidental mariYme clash that can lead to violent incidents.
• An unintenYonal accidental clash can lead to unintended armed skirmishes that all parYes do not want to occur.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• The recent tension between the Philippines and Taiwan over the killing on 9 May 2013 of a Taiwanese fisherman on the contested water demonstrates the risk of a potenYal violent conflict that can happen in the mariYme domain.
• Involvement of the public in the can complicate the situaYon.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• China is the world’s number 2 largest economy. – In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three Ymes the economic output of the enYre globe in 2000.
• The Philippines has become Asia’s fastest growing economy – GDP grew by 7.8% during the first quarter of 2013 outpacing China, which grew by 7.7%.
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
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• Economics can bring the Philippines and China closer together.
• But poliYcs over the issue of the South China Sea is tearing both countries apart.
• Can we just allow the future genera5on solve the South China Sea problem to enable China and the Philippines to work together now in other fields?
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
CENTER FOR INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research
www.pipvtr.com
