People to jobs, jobs to people

people to jobs, jobs to peopleglobal mobility and labor migrationBelgium

RandstadBelgium16/8/2017

finding the ‘sweet spot’ for collective action on global mobility and labor migration

People to jobs, jobs to people 2

available talent

economicinterest

resources political will

collectiveaction on

talent mobility

240+ million migrants worldwidemain migration corridors


all skills in ‘neighboring’ states

• European Union

• former Soviet Union

low and medium skilled

• latin America > north America

• Africa and Middle East > western Europe

• southern Asia > Gulf states

• southeastern Asia > Australia

high skilled

• southern and eastern Asia > north America, Australia and United Kingdom

global mobility and labor migration

• the need for global mobility and labor migration

• demographic challenge

• skill shortages

• global skills mismatch

• Randstad-IZA study ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’

• what moves talent?

• projecting developments in labor supply and demand

• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour

• key messages

• conclusions


demographic challengeaging populations and workforce losses


change in population 2015-2030 by age group (in millions)

baseline (medium) variant zero-migration variant

-27

-24

-21

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

0-14 15-64 65+

United States

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0-14 15-64 65+

Germany

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0-14 15-64 65+

Japan

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0-14 15-64 65+

Belgium

employment trendsin Belgium the number of low skilled jobs is rapidly diminishing while high skilled jobs are increasing fast


Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Qualifications______________________________

Low

Medium

High

Broad sectors______________________________

Primary sector & utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Distribution & transport

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

Occupations______________________________

Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Elementary occupations

employment trendsin thousands

2005 2015 2025

skill shortagesin Belgium 1.1 million new high-skilled workers are needed in the coming years as a result of expansion and aging


Source: Own calculations based on CEDEFOP, forecasting skill demand and supply

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Qualifications______________________________

Low

Medium

High

Broad sectors______________________________

Primary sector & utilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Distribution & transport

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

Occupations______________________________

Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Elementary occupations

job opportunities 2013 - 2025in thousands

expansion demand replacement demand

responding to skill shortagesglobal mobility and labor migration is one part of the strategy to attract and retain the skills needed in the Future of Work

introduce strategic workforce planning

develop a talent

framework

extend the talent pool &

increase employability

temporary & virtual

mobility

ease migration & foster brain circulation


Create a decent flexible labor market with variation in contracts

Modernize social security arrangements Project talent supply and demand

Understand what talent wants Invest in education Target the young, blue collar and/or

migration background

Discover women and older employees Adapt retirement policies Increase day-care opportunities to allow

on- and off-ramping of parents

Create life-long cross-sectoral learninginstitutions

Build PPPs with private sector

Facilitate free flow of remittance Mutual skill recognition Ease skilled migration policies

global mismatch of talentthe skills are available, but not on the right location

9 People to jobs, jobs to people

‘people to jobs, jobs to people’research on global mobility and labor migration commissioned by Randstad from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics

contents:

• what moves talent?

• projecting developments in labor supply and demand

• jobs to people? – assessing firm location choice behaviour

• key messages


what moves talent?global high-skilled talent chooses country of destination based on high wages, use of English and low taxes


pull factors country of destination high-skilled impact

high average wage ++

English speaking ++

low tax-rates +

high unemployment benefits =

rigid employment protection -

union density -

high minimum wage -

pull factors country of destinationhigh-skilled

impact country rankout of 35 OECD countries

high average wage ++ 12 out of 34

English speaking ++ 16 out of 29

low tax-rates + 35 out of 35

high unemployment benefits = 7 out of 35

rigid employment protection - 22 out of 34

union density - 5 out of 34

high minimum wage - 7 out of 27

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Italy

Aust

ria

Gre

ece

Germ

any

Fin

land

Port

ugal

Spain

Belg

ium

Neth

erlands

Fra

nce

Denm

ark

United S

tate

s

Japan

Luxem

bourg

Cze

chia

Sw

eden

Norw

ay

Irela

nd

Aust

ralia

United K

ingdom

Canada

share of high-skilled migrants in total migrant population

what moves talent?highest shares of high-skilled migrants in Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia


data 2011, source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

Colo

mbia

Ukra

ine

Italy

Maro

cco

Iran

Pakis

tan

Rom

ania

United S

tate

s

Canada

Vie

tnam

Fra

nce

Russ

ian F

ed

Kore

a

Mexic

o

Pola

nd

Germ

any

United K

ingdom

Chin

a

Phili

ppin

es

India

Top source countries of high-skilled migrants

what moves talent?highest number of high-skilled migrants from Southern and Eastern Asia


data 2011, source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017

what moves talent?most labor migration is circular; less than a quarter intends to stay abroad for the rest of their life


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Few weeks

Few months

Few years

More years/not indef.

Rest of life

expected duration of stay abroad among respondentswith emigration intentions

Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

change in labor

forc

e

change in population

change in population and labor force 2015 to 2030

developments in labor supply and demanddependency ratios up: the size of the labor force is predicted to increase less or decrease more strongly than the overall population


Belgium

SwedenSwitzerland

USA

UK

France

Italy

NetherlandsGermany

Poland

Spain

dependency ratio down

labor force growth > population growth

Baseline scenario. Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017

dependency ratio up

labor force growth < population growth

developments in labor supply and demandlosses in labor force mitigated by intensive migration and by increase of high-skilled workers who supply considerably more hours worked


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

20

15

20

30

BE CH DE ES FR IT NL PL SE UK US

educational level of labor force

high-skilled medium-skilled low-skilled

Baseline scenario. Source: ‘people to jobs, jobs to people’, Randstad-IZA 2017

presence of suitable employees

access to qualified personnel already serves as a key

determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities

Jobs to people?reasons for (re)location of firms


presence of competitors and

suppliers

quality of infrastructure

regional market potential

region’s GDP or purchasing

power

finding the ‘sweet spot’ for collective action on global mobility and labor migration


available talent

economicinterest


collectiveaction on

talent mobility

people to jobs, jobs to peoplecollective action on talent mobility


available talent

economicinterest


a balanced skill-related system

a robust and flexible framework, with clearly

defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur

innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development

consult business

employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively

achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them

good institutions

national institutions have important effects on the size and the composition of the migrant population; strong incentives to create “good”

institutions to attract or retain skilled and productive

migrant workers in an increasingly global market

business advocacy

businesses should play a prominent role in advocating

fair and open migration policies, identifying policy

challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed

migration

Thank you!


what moves talent?Ranking of competitors in the battle for global talent

People to jobs, jobs to people

Pull factors high average wage English speaking low tax-rates high unemployment benefits

rigid employment protection

union density high minimum wage

Impact ++ + + = - - -

Rank country in OECD-35

Rank Average annual wage(in $)

English proficiency(rate)

Tax wedge on wages (in %)

Unemployment benefits (rate)

Employment protection(rate)

Union density(in %)

Annual minimum wage(in $)

1 Switzerland 88,761 Australia 100.0 Chile 7.0 Iceland 87.95 Portugal 3.18 Iceland 85.2 Australia 25,644

2 Luxembourg 66,966 Canada 100.0 New Zealand 17.9 Finland 72.37 Czech Republic 2.92 Finland 69.8 Luxembourg 25,092

3 Norway 65,037 Ireland 100.0 Mexico 20.1 Luxembourg 69.54 Netherlands 2.82 Sweden 67.5 Netherlands 21,936

4 Denmark 63,674 New Zealand 100.0 Switzerland 21.8 Denmark 69.00 Germany 2.68 Denmark 67.2 New Zealand 21,798

5 Australia 59,407 United Kingdom 100.0 Israel 22.1 Netherlands 63.88 Italy 2.68 Belgium 55.0 United Kingdom 21,353

6 United States 58,714 United States 100.0 Korea 22.2 Switzerland 62.45 Chile 2.63 Norway 53.3 Ireland 21,108

7 Iceland 58,127 Netherlands 72.2 Ireland 27.1 Belgium 61.90 Sweden 2.61 Italy 36.9 Belgium 20,352

8 Ireland 52,532 Denmark 71.5 Australia 28.6 Norway 60.74 Slovenia 2.60 Luxembourg 32.8 France 19,483

9 Netherlands 51,442 Sweden 70.8 United Kingdom 30.8 Ireland 60.25 France 2.38 Ireland 31.2 Germany 19,072

10 United Kingdom 49,677 Norway 68.5 Canada 31.4 Austria 60.01 Austria 2.37 Austria 28.0 Canada 17,636

11 Canada 49,590 Finland 66.6 United States 31.7 France 59.81 Korea 2.37 Canada 27.2 United States 14,892

12 Belgium 47,537 Luxembourg 63.2 Japan 32.4 Slovenia 54.56 Norway 2.33 United Kingdom 26.0 Israel 14,706

13 Sweden 46,164 Austria 62.1 Iceland 34.0 Germany 50.71 Turkey 2.31 Israel 22.8 Japan 13,836

14 Finland 45,353 Germany 61.6 Poland 35.8 Canada 49.34 Luxembourg 2.25 Greece 22.8 Korea 13,241

15 Austria 45,115 Poland 61.5 Norway 36.2 Japan 41.89 Poland 2.23 Slovenia 22.0 Slovenia 10,533

16 New Zealand 43,125 Belgium 60.9 Denmark 36.5 Sweden 41.30 Denmark 2.20 New Zealand 20.9 Spain 10,192

17 Germany 41,716 Switzerland 60.2 Netherlands 37.5 Israel 39.32 Finland 2.17 Portugal 18.9 Greece 8,905

18 France 40,471 Portugal 59.7 Turkey 38.1 Australia 36.22 Greece 2.12 Germany 18.3 Portugal 8,180

19 Israel 33,799 Czech Republic 59.1 Luxembourg 38.4 Korea 34.89 Spain 2.05 Australia 18.2 Turkey 6,742

20 Japan 33,542 Hungary 58.7 Estonia 38.9 United States 33.10 Israel 2.04 Japan 18.0 Poland 5,929

21 Italy 32,041 Slovak Republic 57.3 Spain 39.5 Czech Republic 32.81 Mexico 2.03 Netherlands 17.9 Estonia 5,714

22 Spain 30,476 Spain 56.7 Greece 40.2 Portugal 31.91 Belgium 1.89 Spain 17.1 Slovak Republic 5,418

23 Korea 29,979 Korea 54.9 Portugal 41.5 United Kingdom 27.61 Slovak Republic 1.84 Switzerland 16.2 Latvia 4,910

24 Slovenia 24,612 Italy 54.6 Slovak Republic 41.5 Italy 26.37 Estonia 1.81 Chile 15.3 Czech Republic 4,798

25 Greece 19,567 France 54.3 Latvia 42.6 New Zealand 24.67 Iceland 1.73 Czech Republic 14.3 Hungary 4,750

26 Portugal 18,153 Japan 51.7 Slovenia 42.7 Spain 23.19 Australia 1.67 Mexico 13.6 Chile 4,485

27 Chile 15,523 Chile 50.1 Sweden 42.8 Chile 22.18 Switzerland 1.60 Slovak Republic 13.6 Mexico 1,165

28 Estonia 15,082 Mexico 49.9 Czech Republic 43.0 Poland 21.11 Hungary 1.59 Poland 12.7 Austria

29 Slovak Republic 13,647 Turkey 47.9 Finland 43.8 Hungary 20.64 Ireland 1.40 United States 10.8 Denmark

30 Latvia 13,212 Estonia Austria 47.1 Slovak Republic 19.42 New Zealand 1.39 Hungary 10.7 Finland

31 Czech Republic 12,773 Greece Italy 47.8 Estonia 13.97 Japan 1.37 Korea 10.1 Iceland

32 Poland 12,257 Iceland France 48.1 Greece 12.97 United Kingdom 1.10 France 7.7 Italy

33 Hungary 10,660 Israel Hungary 48.2 Turkey 0.60 Canada 0.92 Turkey 7.0 Norway

34 Mexico 8,905 Latvia Germany 49.4 Mexico 0.00 United States 0.26 Estonia 6.1 Sweden

35 Turkey Slovenia Belgium 54.0 Latvia Latvia Latvia SwitzerlandSource OECD.stats: latest

available data 2015, UK 2014, NZ 2012

Source EF EPI: latest availabledata 2016

Source OECD.stats: latest available data 2016

Source OECD.stats: latestavailable data 2013



Source OECD.stats: latestavailable data 2016

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key take-aways‘people to jobs, jobs to people’

• people to jobs - skill specific demandscoherent migration policies that account for skill-specific demands by the national economy, ease labor shortagesand lead to substantial benefits on growth and employment

• size and composition - good institutionsnational institutions have important effects on the sizeand the composition of the migrant population; policymakers have strong incentives to create “good” institutions to attract or retain skilled and productivemigrant workers in an increasingly global market

• jobs to people - offshoring activitiesaccess to qualified personnel already serves as a key determinant of firms’ decision to offshore activities; increased offshoring rather than relocation serves as firms’ response to skill shortages


conclusions & recommendations

for a new migration-based economy to take hold, the present, outdated infrastructure for managing migration will need to be totally re-designed

• a balanced skill-related system

it should include a robust and flexible framework, with clearly defined immigration categories and objective eligibility criteria to spur innovation, fill skills gaps and promote development

• consult business

employers are in the best position to determine the skills and business models they need to effectively achieve their objectives, and governments therefore need to actively consult with them

• business advocacy

businesses should play a prominent role in advocating fair and open migration policies, identifying policy challenges and emphasizing the benefits of well-managed migration


People to jobs, jobs to people

Recruiting & HR

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