Pathways to Decarbonization Scenario Findings
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851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Bill Edmonds 503-222-5161 Portland, Oregon 97204-1348 Executive Director 800-452-5161 www.nwcouncil.org Fax: 503-820-2370 Richard Devlin Chair Oregon Guy Norman Vice Chair Washington Chuck Sams Oregon Mike Milburn Montana Doug Grob Montana Patrick Oshie Washington Jim Yost Idaho Jeffery C. Allen Idaho June 2, 2021 MEMORANDUM TO: Council Members FROM: Ben Kujala SUBJECT: Pathways to Decarbonization Scenario Findings BACKGROUND: Presenter: Ben Kujala Summary: This scenario looks at the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the use of energy in our region and at the approaches to reducing these emissions. This power plan is the first plan where the Council has expanded our forecasting to include the use of fuels for transportation, the home, the business, and industry. State targets in Oregon and Washington for reducing emissions are cross-sector. And many of the approaches for reducing emissions involve increasing load on the electric system. This scenario looks at what it takes in the broader energy sector to move toward these goals and examines the implications for the electric system. Relevance: Decarbonization goals and the resulting policies and activities to pursue those goals have broad-ranging implications for the amount of electricity used in the region.
Transcript of Pathways to Decarbonization Scenario Findings
851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Bill Edmonds 503-222-5161 Portland, Oregon 97204-1348 Executive Director 800-452-5161 www.nwcouncil.org Fax: 503-820-2370
Richard Devlin Chair
Oregon
Guy Norman Vice Chair Washington
Chuck Sams
Oregon
Mike Milburn Montana
Doug Grob
Montana
Patrick Oshie Washington
Jim Yost
Idaho
Jeffery C. Allen Idaho
June 2, 2021
MEMORANDUM TO: Council Members FROM: Ben Kujala SUBJECT: Pathways to Decarbonization Scenario Findings BACKGROUND: Presenter: Ben Kujala Summary: This scenario looks at the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the
use of energy in our region and at the approaches to reducing these emissions. This power plan is the first plan where the Council has expanded our forecasting to include the use of fuels for transportation, the home, the business, and industry. State targets in Oregon and Washington for reducing emissions are cross-sector. And many of the approaches for reducing emissions involve increasing load on the electric system. This scenario looks at what it takes in the broader energy sector to move toward these goals and examines the implications for the electric system.
Relevance: Decarbonization goals and the resulting policies and activities to pursue
those goals have broad-ranging implications for the amount of electricity used in the region.
Pathways to Decarbonization Scenario Findings
IntroductionTo combat climate change - the states of Oregon and Washington have set goals and limits on future greenhouse gas emissions from their respective states
Oregon45 % below 1990 levels by 203580 % below 1990 levels by 2050
Washington45 % below 1990 levels by 203070 % below 1990 levels by 204095 % below 1990 levels by 2050
and net zero emissions
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For the 2021 Power Plan – in order to form a more comprehensive understanding of expected regional emissions - we expanded our forecasting out past the power sector to include the use of fuels for transportation, the home, the business and industry
The Paths to Decarbonization Scenario is an investigation into methods that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the entire economy – both energy related & non-energy related
Baseline Conditions Emissions
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1990 2005 2041 2050Transportation 62 78 109 119Industrial, w/o Agric 24 21 18 17Residential/Commercial 16 20 24 27Electric Sector 46 54 17 19
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MM
TCO
2E
Results
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2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045REF 60 161 336 603 993 1,524ELEC Only 63 332 1,246 2,475 3,771 4,954H2T 63 332 1,436 3,570 8,36716,934
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
Demand for ElectricityaMW
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045REF 74,257 77,084 79,874 82,964 86,256 89,879ELEC Only 74,232 76,156 75,034 72,803 70,756 70,240H2T 74,232 76,156 74,750 71,112 63,325 49,332
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
Tailpipe EmmissionskTonne CO2e
ELEC Only –electrification changes only –no H2
More Results
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Tailpipe Emissions by CategorykTonne CO2e
REF - LDV REF - HDV
H2T - LDV H2T - HDV
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
H2T Case - Electricity Demand by UseaMW
LDV Plug-In HDV Plug-In HDV H2 Prod
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WECC-wide Emissions Based on Early Coal Retirement
Emissions Drop By 38% in 2030 and by
39% in 2045
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Average GHG Emissions (MMT)
Baseline - Revised ARMs Early Coal Retirement
Substantial emissions reductions based on both change in regional & market resource mix
Regional Emissions Based on Early Coal Retirement
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Energy Efficiency Technical Potential aMW
• Assumes 100 percent of EE technical potential acquired• Leads to low to moderate emissions reduction (emissions go down by 4%) - power
system has very low emissions by 2050, so reduction in electric load does not significantly lower 2050 emissions
Transportation Assumptions• All air travel has a 2% reduction in CO2
emissions per year starting in 2025• New City buses sold in 2050 are 94%
electric in Idaho & Montana and 100% electric in Oregon and Washington
• CAFE standards increase to 80 MPG by 2040 (from 25 MPG today)
• Forced early retirement of older passenger vehicles and light duty trucks
• Sales of Heavy Duty Vehicles in 2050 are either 94% or 100% Hydrogen or Electric by 2050 (depending on application)
• Light Duty Vehicles are 100% electric by 2030 for Oregon and Washington, 2035 for Idaho, and 2040 for Montana
• Electric marine vehicles go to 50% of new vehicles sold in 2050
• Electric freight trains go to 50% of new vehicles sold in 2050
• Total vehicle miles traveled per capita reduces by 1% per year starting in 2020
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Other assumptions• Reduction in appliance life to
increase replacements with more efficient appliances
• Increased Renewable Natural Gas penetration
• Industrial fuel demands shift to electric or hydrogen
• Decrease solar costs for rooftop (75% lower than 2022)
• Increase residential battery installation
• Increase and extend investment tax credits for residential solar installations
• Added $100 tax per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions
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Natural Gas Consumption (Excludes Electric Utility Demand)
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Natural Gas ConsumptionTBTU/yr
Baseline
Pathways to Decarbonization
Where Does This Leave Us for Emissions from Energy Use in the Northwest?
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1990 2005 2041Baseline 2041 PTD 2050
Baseline 2050 PTD
Total Energy Sectors 148 174 169 105 182 90
020406080
100120140160180200
MM
TCO
2eGHG Emissions from Energy used in Residential, Commercial, Industrial,
Agriculture and Electric Utilities
Decarbonization Looking at Energy Sector Falls Short of Targets
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Early Coal Retirement
1990 Level
PTD With H2
80% Reduction from 1990 Emissions for Regional
Energy Sector Just Under 30 MMBTU of CO2e Emissions
Limits on Our View of Emissions in 2050
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NW Energy Sector GHG EmissionsMMTCO2e
Baseline Conditions
1990 Level
Pathways toDecarbonization
ContinuedDecarbonization past2041
If we could further reduce emissions at the same rate as the 2035-2041 reductions, we would get closer to 2050 targets
Energy is Only Part of the Decarbonization Picture
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MMTCO2E 1990 2050 PTDEnergy 148 90Coal Mining & Abandoned Mines 2 0.4Natural Gas and Oil Systems 3 0.3Industrial Processes 7 9Agriculture 32 24Municipal Solid Waste 4 2CH4 From Reserviours 7 6.5Emissions from Foreast fires - 13Aggregate Sources 203 145Aggregate Sinks (101) (103)Net Emissions 101 42
RPM Analysis16
Partial Decarbonization
What if we see some but not all impacts on the electric sector?1. Started with Early Coal Retirement Scenario2. Removed all natural gas resource options3. Added SMRs as an option4. Increased loads consistent with electrification of new buildings and light-
duty EV reaching 100 percent of sales by 20305. Run through RPM
NOTE: this does not represent a system that meets current state goals
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Regi
onal
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d (a
MW
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Increased Load for Partial Pathways to Decarbonization Analysis
Baseline Partial PTD
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Average EE Acquired
Baseline Early Coal Retirement Early Coal Retirement - No New Gas PTD - Partial Decarb
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EE Ramps with Load – 1160 by
2027
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Average Renewable Build
Baseline Early Coal Retirement Early Coal Retirement - No New Gas PTD - Partial Decarb
Substantial Increase in Renewable Build
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Average DR Acquired
Baseline Early Coal Retirement PTD - Partial Decarb
Substantial DR Builds to Support
Adequacy
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Average Storage Build
Baseline Early Coal Retirement PTD - Partial Decarb
Late Storage Build to Support
Adequacy
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Average GHG Emissions (MMT)
Baseline Early Coal Retirement Early Coal Retirement - No New Gas PTD - Partial Decarb
GHG Emissions remain low even with load growth
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0.0%
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Percentage Increase in Bills
Early Coal Retirement Early Coal Retirement - No New Gas PTD - Partial Decarb
Substantial Increase in
Residential Bills
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Average Exports (aMW)
Baseline Early Coal Retirement Early Coal Retirement - No New Gas PTD - Partial Decarb
Moving renewable surplus to market
creates more exports
Conclusions
• Increased EE tends to be really aggressive after the first decade• Increasing load pushes renewables up• No options for natural gas pushes storage and DR and a single geothermal
plant into resulting strategy• Reserves likely need to be adjusted to account for additional renewables –
operability of the system is unclear
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Questions?
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