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  • HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.

    Painel 3: Polticas Pblicas para

    Estmulo a PD&I

    Huawei, 11 anos de Brasil !

    17/Maio/2011

  • Contedo

    Telecom e Desenvolvimento Econmico

    Tendncias no Desenvolvimento Tecnolgico

    Desafios para PD&I no Brasil

    Huawei: Avanos e Desafios

  • HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

    35pt

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    Page 3

    Roller e Waverman: Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach

    Considering average 30% fixed telephony penetration in the OECD countries under investigation, it is concluded that 10% growth in fixed telephony penetration impacts +2,8% in GDP.

    Sridhar e Sridhar: Telecommunications Infrastructure and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries

    Investment in fixed and mobile telephony affects economy positively in three ways: reduction of production costs, revenue potencial growth e direct and indirect employment.

    Waverman, Meschi e Fuss: The Impact of Telecoms on Economic Growth in Developing Countries

    Mobile telephony, its lower cost and faster implementation has been representing a relevant role in developing economies, similarly to the role of fixed telephony in the progress of OECD rich countries between 1970 &1990.

    Estudo da ACEL (Associao das Operadoras Celulares) :

    Cada REAL de receita da telefonia mvel implica 0,2 REAL de valor adicionado em outros setores da economia Brasileira

    Study from GSMA :

    10% growth of broadband penetration impacts average 0,6-0,7% in GDP;

    Telecom e Desenvolvimento Econmico

  • HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

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    Page 4

    Polticas de Telecom e Seus Impactos Econmicos

    Investimentos em

    Redes de Telecom

    Polticas Pblicas

    e

    Regulamenttao

    Crescimento

    do PIB

    Ganhos de

    Produtividade

    Crescimento da

    Oferta e Demanda

    de Servios

    Source: ACEL, adapted from LEWIN and SWEET

    Aumento do bem

    estar dos

    consumidores

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    Page 5

    Telephony Density and GDP per Capita

    R2 = 0,6752

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000

    GDP per Capita (U$)

    Te

    lep

    ho

    ny

    De

    ns

    ity

    USA

    France

    Germany

    Korea

    Brazil

    Argentina

    Chile

    China

    Telephony Density and GDP per Capita

    R2 = 0,6752

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 45.000 50.000

    GDP per Capita (U$)

    Te

    lep

    ho

    ny

    De

    ns

    ity

    USA

    France

    Germany

    Korea

    Brazil

    Argentina

    Chile

    China

    Teledensidade e PIB per Capita

    Source: ITU-T

  • HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

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    +100% de penetrao do servio mvel, crescimento do MOU, desafio da banda

    larga e IPTV como prxima onda;

    PENETRATION IN BRAZIL

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    1999

    2000

    2001

    2002

    2003

    2004

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    Q3

    Fixed

    Mobile

    Pay TV

    FBB

    MBB

    100% barrier

    crossed in

    2010

    Accelerated

    MBB growth

    Stable fixed

    voice market

    IPTV

    next

    wave

    Anlise de Mercado: Desafio da Banda Larga e IPTV

    Page 6

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    Page 7

    Expanso da Banda Larga: Desafio Brasileiro Atual

    Acima da mdia Abaixo da mdia

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    Page 8

    Desafio da Banda Larga: Penetrao e Velocidade

    Smartphone ultrapassa PCs A tendncia que ossmartphones se tornem oprincipal dispositivo de acesso internet superando o PC:

    Banda larga de alta velocidade:necessidade de expanso da redede fibras pticas;

  • Contedo

    Telecom e Desenvolvimento Econmico

    Tendncias no Desenvolvimento Tecnolgico

    Desafios para PD&I no Brasil

    Huawei: Avanos e Desafios

  • HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD. Huawei Confidential

    35pt

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    Declino da Receita de Voz + SMS

    SourceMorgan Stanley, The Mobile Internet Report, Dec, 2009

    Receita de Voz Mvel$125 B$120 B$115 B$110 B

    $15 B

    $10 B

    $105 B

    2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E

    Receita de SMS

    USA

    W. Europe

    Depois do lanamento do iPhone, o trfego cresceu 6500% e a receita apenas 7,7%

    41% dos assinantes 3G naFrana no esto satisfeitoscom o servio, com o QoEabaixo das expectativas

    20% dos usurios soresponsveis por 80% do trfego

    Receita Declinante dos Servios Tradicionais e

    Alto Trfego com Baixa Receita dos Servios de

    Internet

    Crescimento do Trfego Global da Banda

    Larga Mvel

    Page 10

    http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z=&tn=baiduimagedetail&word=UFC-Que+Choisir+logo&in=11962&cl=2&lm=-1&pn=3&rn=1&di=17722122300&ln=103&fr=&fmq=&ic=&s=&se=&sme=0&tab=&width=&height=&face=&is=&istype=

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    Descolamento das Curvas A, B e C

    Como alterar as curvas para uma situao lucrativa?

    BA

    C

    Voz Web Video

    Page 11

    A B CCusto:Internet para video influenciando o Capex, TDM para IP o Opex

    Banda:Incremento de 50-100 no trfego, 90% de vdeo

    ARPU:Valor se deslocandopara dispositivos e cloud

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    B2B

    B2C

    IPTV

    Gaming

    News

    E-Book

    Music

    Ubiquitous Services

    Ubiquitous Network

    TelematicsTelematics E-EducationE-Education

    Mundo mais

    inteligente e simples

    Cadeia de Valor: Mudana

    no Modelo de Negcios

    Viso de Desenvolvimento da Indstria

    Page 12

    Mobile

    Widget PC

    Widget TV

    Widget

    Map Weather TicketLocation

    IAASSAASPAAS

    http://www.google.co.uk/

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    Corp