Pacific Possible: Labour - Development Policy Centre · · 2016-08-16•Pacific Possible: Labour...
Transcript of Pacific Possible: Labour - Development Policy Centre · · 2016-08-16•Pacific Possible: Labour...
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• Pacific Possible: Labour
Mobility examines what is
possible through overseas
employment for Pacific Islanders.
• A collaborative project of the ANU
Development Policy Centre and
the World Bank Social and Labour
Global Practice.
• Authored by Richard Curtain,
Jesse Doyle, Matthew Dornan and
Stephen Howes.
• Combines new research, policy
recommendations, and quantified
scenario analysis.
• This version is a draft. We
welcome your comments.
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Why labour mobility?
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The labour mobility triple win
• Given the unique development
challenges facing the Pacific Island
countries, there is now broad
consensus that expanding labour
mobility is vital for the future of the
Pacific.
• Where countries are unable to bring
jobs to the people, try taking the
people to the jobs.
• Labour mobility provides a ‘triple win’
for workers, the countries they are
from and the countries they work in
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Triple win: migrants
• Labour mobility provides critical
employment opportunities in a
region where unemployment is
high.
• The opportunity to work abroad
can result in significant income
gains and a higher standard of
living
Country Labour
force
entrants
(annually)
Formal sector
jobs created
(annually)
Kiribati 3,200 65
PNG 87,000 11,932
Solomon
Islands
13,000 2,089
Tonga 5,600 325
Vanuatu 3,800 1,260
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Triple win: sending countries
• Remittances
• reduce poverty in sending
countries
• support human capital
development
• help finance trade deficits
• Must and can have labour mobility
without brain drain.
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Triple win: receiving countries
• Migrants plug labour shortages and
Pacific migrants do well abroad.
• Promotion of labour mobility balances
use of foreign aid.
• Preferential treatment for the Pacific
balances preferential treatment for
developed countries, justified on
strategic grounds, and manageable
given small numbers.
• A Pacific labour mobility strategy would
help esp. Australia improve the way it
meets its low-skill labour requirements.
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Labour mobility opportunities are unevenly divided across the Pacific
Migrants/resident population across the Pacific
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
MarshallIslands
FSM Palau Fiji Samoa Tonga PNG SolomonIslands
Vanuatu Kiribati Tuvalu
Open access High mobility Low mobility Atolls
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The Pacific is not an important source of migrants for major receiving countries
Stock of Pacific migrants in major receiving countries
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Australia New Zealand USA
Tho
usa
nd
s
Stock of Pacific migrants Pacific migrants/population
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Approach to identifying reforms
• Focus on both sending and receiving countries, and try to address
their concerns
• Receiving countries: Focus on Australia, New Zealand, South
Korea.
• Sending countries: Focus on PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu,
Kiribati and Tuvalu
• Suggest a menu of options
• Seasonal, temporary, and long-term.
• Focus on low and medium-skilled.
• Based on extensive new research presented in background papers
of existing schemes and various issues.
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Seasonal work
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Australia’s SWP much smaller than NZ’s RSE, but is not capped
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Australia's SWP New Zealand's RSE
Pacific visas issued under Australia’s SWP and New Zealand’s RSE
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Seasonal work reforms
• Australia
• Remove second-year visa extensions for backpackers to
work in horticulture
• Promote the scheme
• Regulate labour hire companies
• New Zealand
• Increase the cap
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Temporary migration
(1-5 years)
Pacific backpackersKorea EPSAPTCPacific caregivers program
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Pacific backpackers
• Australia is the mecca for backpackers: attracting about half of all
backpackers in the world.
• Backpacker visas are increasingly employment rather tourism visas
• 95% of backpackers are from developed countries, but some
developing countries have access to small number of capped
places.
• Discussions are underway between Australia and PNG/ Fiji.
• Such visas could open up 2-year work opportunities for, say, 100
from each PIC each year, with significant longer-term prospects.
• Important that conditions are realistic, and that Pacific governments
are organized: these are regulated schemes.
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Expanding Korea’s EPS to the Pacific
• Korea’s Employment Permit System
(EPS) provides work visas for up to
55,000 unskilled, young workers for up
to five years.
• Timor Leste one of 15 Asian countries
signed up to the scheme. Since 2009, it
has sent 1,900 workers.1,500 still there.
• We surveyed 30 returned TL workers.
Workers generally found the experience
hard, but positive.
• Half the workers sent home $6,000 or
more a year.
• Lobby Korea to extend scheme to the
Pacific?
• Sending country support critical –
language programs need to be
organized.
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APTC reforms
• APTC was set up as an innovative
“aid for migration” initiative, but has
not delivered on labour mobility.
• New phase of APTC provides an
opportunity.
• Key requirement is to identify
feasible migration pathways to
specific countries, and commit to
helping students down those
pathways.
• Avoid brain drain by training fresh
students and/or picking occupations
where there is not a domestic
shortage.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Plannedto migrate
Tooksteps tomigrate
Migrated
Cro
ss-c
ou
ntr
y av
erag
e (p
erce
nta
ge)
APTC migration outcomes
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Pacific high-medical-need caregivers program
• In Australia, the number of aged care workers
needed in both residential and community care
is likely to increase from 201,000 in 2011 to
532,000 by 2040.
• Australia is heavily reliant on migrants for aged
care, but lacks a formal migration route (no Skill
Level 4 visas). New Zealand has a migration
route but only allows one-year visas.
• Canada has a multi-year caregiver visa for in-
home care to people with high medical needs.
ANZ should consider a Pacific caregiver visa.
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Long-term/permanent
migration (>5 years)
APTC reforms Pacific Category visaANZ Atoll Access
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NZ’s Pacific Category visas
• NZ Pacific Category visas include Pacific Access
Category (250 places to Fiji and Tonga, 75 to Tuvalu and
Kiribati) and the Samoa Quota (1,100 places).
• Selection by lottery avoids brain drain. (Massive excess
demand.)
• Work, language, health and character requirements help
deliver overall good migration outcomes without
requiring micro-management.
• We argue for expansion of the scheme to Australia, with
two reforms• Higher minimum education requirement.
• More job brokerage assistance.
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ANZ Atoll Access Agreement
• As low lying atoll island states, Kiribati
and Tuvalu face high climate change
risks, and have limited labour mobility
options.
• Kiribati needs much higher migration
outflows just to stabilize population.
• Australia and New Zealand could
provide open labour market access to
Kiribati and Tuvalu.
• Numbers would be limited by income
constraints. We estimate that only
33,000 i-Kiribati and Tuvaluans would
be able to leave through to 2040:
1,300 per year or 0.6% of ANZ
combined annual permanent migration
program.
Kiribati population projections
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Kir
ibat
i po
pu
lati
on
BAU Doubling migration outflows
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Sending country
reforms
SkillsPromotionSocial impact
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Lifting the quantity and quality of skills supply
• Improving quantity and quality of skills
supply is critical for promoting work
opportunities, at home and abroad.
• This extends in some countries to basic
literacy and numeracy.
• Labour mobility does not have to lead to
brain drain, and can provide incentives for
education and skills acquisition.
• Countries can promote cost-recovery via
income-contingent loans.
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Promoting Pacific workers and opportunities
• Sending country governments have a
critical role to play in many visa
categories: backpackers, Korea EPS,
seasonal work.
• Good performance is the best form of
promotion.
• Task PIT&I with labour mobility market
research and promotion: PIT&I&W.
& Work
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Minimizing any negative social impacts
• Social impacts of labour mobility
need not be negative.
• Positive education outcomes and
investments in community assets
• Negative outcomes most likely to
arise from long-term family
separations. So promote those
schemes which avoid such
separations – as this report does.
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The gains: quantifying
the impact of reforms
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Scenario analysis out to 2040
Business as usual:
• Pacific labour mobility under existing policies.
Medium growth scenario
• Compared to BAU, a doubling of non-seasonal migration flows and
50% increase in seasonal workers
• Labour mobility growth focused on the low mobility and atoll states
• Achieved by partial implementation of the reforms proposed in the
report.
High growth scenario
• Compared to BAU, a tripling of non-seasonal migration flows and
doubling of seasonal workers
• Labour mobility growth focused on the low mobility and atoll states
• Achieved by substantial implementation of the reforms proposed in the
report.
The analysis is illustrative but telling.
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The 3 scenarios: migrants
Number of Pacific migrants (% of Pacific resident population)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2013 2040
High
Medium
BAU
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The 3 scenarios: net income
Net income of Pacific migrants (% GDP)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2040
High
Medium
BAU
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The 3 scenarios: remittances
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2013 2040
% GDP
BAU Medium High
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2013 2040
$US miilions (2005 prices)
Mill
ion
s
BAU Medium High
Remittances: USD and % GDP
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What would it mean for different Pacific countries?
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Fiji Kiribati RMI FSM Palau PNG Samoa SolomonIslands
Tonga Tuvalu Vanuatu
BAU Medium High
‘GNI+’ per capita in 2040 (2013=1)
Including the net income from migrants, in the high-growth scenario national income growth per capita doubles relative to BAU for PNG and Solomon Islands, triples for Vanuatu, and quintuples for Kiribati.
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What would it mean for receiving countries?
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Australia New Zealand
Perc
enta
ge o
f p
op
ula
tio
n
2013 2040 - BAU 2040 - Medium 2040 - High
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Conclusion
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• Labour mobility reform is a $10 billion prize for the
Pacific.
• And a prize that benefits the receiving countries as well.
• The last decade has been a positive one for Pacific
labour mobility.
• No reason why the next decade can’t continue this
momentum, and end the phenomenon of Pacific
isolation.
• It takes two to tango.
Conclusion
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• Six weeks for stakeholders to provide feedback.
• Send your comments to the authors or post them on the
Pacific Possible website.
• The final Pacific Possible report will add the gains
quantified through this research, along with those from
the five other themes and be released in late 2016.
Conclusion
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Any Questions?
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Thank you!