Overview of Energy Planning
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Transcript of Overview of Energy Planning
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Overview of Energy Planning(Energy Planning and Management)
Rabin ShresthaVisiting FacultyPulchowk Campus, 2010
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THE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVE OF AN ENERGY
PLANNING ACTIVITY IS TO PROVIDE
INFORMATION TO DECISION-MAKERS
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An Energy Planning Program should
Lead to Specific Actions
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PLANAND PLANNING
The Plan is a statement of choices made bydecision-makers at any one point in time.
Planning is a dynamic process that is repeated
periodically and adjusts to changing conditions.
Planning should not be an end in itself.
Planning should not be an excuse for inaction
Planning should not be a replacement for
decision-making
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There are 7 Steps that Should be Carried
Out in an Energy Planning Program
1. Define Goal
and wider
Objectives
2. Define
Approach
3. Determine
Information
Needs
4. Choose Analysis
Process
5. Conduct
Analysis6. Present Results
7. Prepare Plan
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1. Basic Goals
Prepare of Capital Investment Plan
Need for financial and human resource commitment
Develop Appropriate Policies
Pricing, Laws, regulation, tax incentives, subsidies
Provide signals to the consumers Give information as to future direction
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Wider ObjectivesTo develop the electricity system leading to lowestcost to consumers
To maximize reliability and safety
To diversify electricity generation
To maximize the use of indigenous sources
To maximize the use of renewable resources
To minimize environmental effect
To develop a diversified energy supply system withless dependence on oil
To develop the lowest cost energy supply system
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Hydropower Development Policy 2001
Objectives:
To generate electricity at low cost by utilizing the water
resources available in the country.
To extend reliable and qualitative electric servicethroughout the Kingdom ofNepal at a reasonable price.
To tie-up electrification with the economic activities.
To render support to the development of rural economy
by extending the rural electrification.
To develop hydropower as an exportable commodity.
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It Must be Remembered that Energy Planning
is done in the Context of Overall Planning
Global
Issues
National Economy
Energy System
Electric
System
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The Objectives Chosen for Energy Planning must
Recognize theI
nteractions among Various Systems
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2. Define Approach
The approach to be taken in an energy
planning program will vary with the particular
needs
SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS
SCALE OF THE ANALYSIS
TIME HORIZON
LEVEL OF DETAIL
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The Scope of the Analysis Determines What
Portions of the Energy/Economy System willbe Included
GLOBAL ANALYSIS
TOTAL NATIONAL ECONOMY
ENERGY SYSTEM
ELECTRIC SECTOR
POWER PLANT STUDY
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The Scale of the Analysis Determines the Amount
of Spatial Disaggregation to be Included
TOTAL COUNTRY
REGIONAL VARIATIONS
PROJECT - SPECIFIC CONSIDERATIONS
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The Time Horizon has a Significant Impact
on the PlanningTechniques Chosen
OPERATIONAL (HOURLY, DAILY)
SHORT - TERM (1-3 YEARS) MEDIUM - TERM (3-10 YEARS)
LONG-TERM (>10 YEARS)
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The Level ofDetail Determines How
Much Effort Must be Spent
IN-DEPTHANALYSIS
QUICK ANDDIRTY
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3. Information Needed for An Energy
Planning Process is ofTwo Types DETAILEDTECHNICAL DATA
DETAILEDTECHNICAL DATAIS USED BY PLANNERS
ANDANALYSTS TO EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES
DECISION-MAKINGINFORMATION
DECISION-MAKINGINFORMATIONIS USED BY
SENIOR OFFICIALS TO CHOOSE A COURSE OFACTION
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4. It is Important to Consider Several
Factors When Choosing Analytical Tools INFORMATION PROVIDED
DOES THE ANALYTICAL TOOL PROVIDE THE
INFORMATION REQUIRED?
DOES IT PROVIDE ITINTHE RIGHT FORM?
IS THE INFORMATION COMPATIBLE WITH OTHER
ANALYSES?
COMPLEXITY VS. SIMPLICITY DATAAVAILABILITY
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Data Availability
DATAIS A CONSTANT PROBLEM. THERE ARE
THREE CHOICES:
1. DO NOTHING
2. INVESTINDATA COLLECTION
3. TAKE THE BESTGUESS NOW ANDITERATE
LATER.
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There are Numerous Analysis Methods
to Choose From:
DEMAND MODELS
SUPPLY MODELS SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE MODELS
IMPACTS EVALUATION MODELS
INTEGRATING METHODOLOGIES
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5. The Conduct of an Energy Analysis
Program is a SignificantU
ndertaking
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6. An Important Part of the Planning Process is
the Presentation of Results toD
ecision-makers
DECISION-MAKERS OFTENDO NOTHAVE THE
SAME TECHNICAL EXPERIENCE AS ANALYSTS.
IF THE ANALYTICAL RESULTS ARE NOT
PRESENTED CLEARLY AND CONCISELY, THEY
WILL BE IGNORED
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7. The Energy Plan is a Statement of
the Choices that have been Made
ITIS A STATEMENT OF ACTIONS
PROJECTS
POLICIES
FURTHER STUDY
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The End
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