Resource Planning Overview - UniSource Energy Services – UniSource Energy … · 2018-04-22 ·...
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TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1 Resource Planning Overview Michael Sheehan Director, Supply-Side Planning
Transcript of Resource Planning Overview - UniSource Energy Services – UniSource Energy … · 2018-04-22 ·...
TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1
Resource Planning Overview
Michael SheehanDirector, Supply-Side Planning
Website and Contact Info
TEP Website http://www.tep.com/Company/News/index.asp
Workshop agendas
Presentations will be posted after each workshop
E-mail Contact [email protected]
Questions and Comments
Presentation Requests
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Workshop Agenda
Workshop 1 Resource Planning Overview
Input Assumptions
Future Uncertainty
Workshop 2 – Thursday, October 22nd 2009 Energy Efficiency and Renewables
Transmission Planning
Environmental Strategies
Workshop 3 - Tuesday, November 17th 2009 Preliminary Results
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Resource Portfolios
Input Assumptions Future Resource Assumptions
» Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
» Department of Energy (DOE)
» Black & Veatch
» National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
» Summit Blue
» ICF International
» National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)
» Other Utilities and Public Stakeholders
Independent Third-Party Data Sources» Avoid internal biases
» In-depth analysis behind data
» Forward thinking outcomes
Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Future Uncertainties
Ventyx & Wood Mackenzie Long-Range Forecasts» Western Region Forecast of Fuels, Markets & Emissions
» Sensitivity Cases
» Carbon Cases (CO2 Legislation Updates)
Ventyx» 2009 Spring Reference Case
» Electric Power Horizons
Future Scenarios » Interaction between all market forces
» Consider range of possibilities and uncertainties
» Technologies innovations
» Development of opportunities and contingencies
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Minimum Planning Requirements
Demand/Reserve Margin – 15% Planning Reserve
REST Compliance – 15% by 2025
Energy Efficiency Targets – 15% by 2020
Load Serving Capability
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Cost Criteria
Environmental Impacts
CO2
Water Usage
Financial Requirements
Capital Requirements
Rate Impacts
Economic Development
Support Local Economy
Support AZ “Green” Industry
No longer “Least Cost” but rather “Best Value”
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Risk Management
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
Managing Portfolio Risk
Load Forecast & Energy Efficiency Risk» Scalable resources
» Short lead times
Fuel & CO2 Risk» Fuel diversity
» Target “zero-emission” resources
Performance Risk» Proven technologies
» Geographic diversity
» Counterparty diversity
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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Preferred Plan
Contingency 1
Contingency 3
Contingency 4
Contingency 2 Contingency 2
Preferred Plan Preferred Plan Preferred Plan
Pursue the strategic opportunities
Development of planning contingencies
Continuous evaluation of future resource options
Preferred Portfolios
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Risk Management
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Preferred Portfolios
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Competitive Procurement Process
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1
