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Transcript of Overview of Economic Development in Tijuana ... Overview of Economic Development in Tijuana:...

  • Overview of Economic Development in Tijuana:

    Tijuana´s Industrial Real Estate market statistics:

    1 Adriana Eguia January 24, 2019

    Borders Committee

  • Number of Maquilas vs Jobs (In Tijuana)

    2

    -

    50,000.00

    100,000.00

    150,000.00

    200,000.00

    250,000.00

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

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    Número de Maquilas

    Número de Empleos

    Maquilas

    Jobs

    1976 Crisis 76% Devaluation

    1982 Oil Crisis 500% Devaluation

    December´s Error1994. 48% Devaluation

    2008 World crisis. 6% Devaluation

    2016 Trump effect

    Start of TLCAN

    2000 Dotcom Crisis

  • Supply (SF) vs Vacancy (%)

    3

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e Supply 38,558,00 43,175,00 45,363,00 45,600,00 47,800,00 50,800,00 53,300,00 54,586,00 57,362,00 57,673,00 58,372,00 58,786,00 61,313,36 63,411,40 64,284,59 67,165,40

    Vacancy % 5.8% 3.0% 4.0% 2.6% 4.6% 12.7% 13.9% 12.9% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 7.0% 4.8% 1.2% 2.4% 2.8%

    -

    5,000,000

    10,000,000

    15,000,000

    20,000,000

    25,000,000

    30,000,000

    35,000,000

    40,000,000

    45,000,000

    50,000,000

    55,000,000

    60,000,000

    65,000,000

    70,000,000

    75,000,000

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    16.0%

    Supply (SF) vs Vacancy (%)

    72.1 M

    2018

  • Net Absorption (SF) vs Vacancy (%) vs New construction(SF)

    4

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e Net Absorption 1,320,00 2,218,00 941,000 1,093,39 1,193,70 277,469 (37 6,000 1,380,00 1,446,00 1,040,00 1,000,00 2,700,00 2,030,00 3,900,00 1,263,00 3,260,00 New Construction - 1,600,00 1,300,00 2,300,00 1,800,00 2,200,00 390,000 310,000 640,000 - 130,000 421,000 610,000 1,760,00 1,286,00 3,000,00 Vacancy % 5.8% 3.0% 4.0% 2.6% 4.6% 12.7% 13.9% 12.9% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 7.0% 4.8% 1.2% 2.4% 2.8%

    -3.0%

    -2.0%

    -1.0%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    9.0%

    10.0%

    11.0%

    12.0%

    13.0%

    14.0%

    15.0%

    (1,000,000)

    (500,000)

    -

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    3,000,000

    3,500,000

    4,000,000

    4,500,000

    3,226,026 2018

    1,458,247 2.2%

  • Vacancy (%) vs Average lease rate ($USD/SF/mo)

    5

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e Vacancy % 5.8% 3.0% 4.0% 2.6% 4.6% 12.7% 13.9% 12.9% 11.7% 10.5% 9.6% 7.0% 4.8% 1.2% 2.4% 2.8% Average rent (SF/Mo.) Class A $0.35 $0.36 $0.40 $0.46 $0.48 $0.46 $0.36 $0.36 $0.37 $0.40 $0.42 $0.43 $0.44 $0.46 $0.47 $0.48

    $-

    $0.10

    $0.20

    $0.30

    $0.40

    $0.50

    $0.60

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    16.0%

    2.2% 2018

  • Industrial market watch

    *Source: JLL 2018 6

  • How the market is distributed for us

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    VERACRUZ

    CANCUN

    North (28%): Surface area sf: 7,996,798 Number of buildings: 66 Number of clients: 61

    Bajio (49%): Surface area sf: 13,777,670 Number of buildings: 80 Number of clients: 78

    Central (24%): Surface area sf: 7,123,121 Number of buildings: 34 Number of clients: 33

    TIJUANA

    CIUDAD JUAREZ

    SINALOA

    PUEBLA

    TLAXCALAESTADO DE MEXICO

    QUERETARO

    SAN LUIS POTOSIAGUASCALIENTES

    GUANAJUATO

    GUADALAJARA

    *

    *

    *** *

    *

    *

    Automotive 29.8 %

    Aerospace 8.7%

    Other 16.4%Plastics 4.1% Paper 0.1%

    Medical Devices 2.0%

    Recreational Vehicles 5.0%

    Energy 4.6%

    Manufacturing 71%

    Logistics 29%

  • Overview of Economic Development in Tijuana:

    Economic Border Zone

    8 Adriana Eguia January 24, 2019

    Borders Committee

  • Border Survey by Deloitte

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  • Border Survey by Deloitte

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  • Excercise (Payroll + Income Tax) by Deloitte

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  • Inflation by Deloitte

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  • Final thoughts by Deloitte

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  • Thank you!

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