OVERVIEW OF AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES
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OVERVIEW OF AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST – AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES [email protected] 05/10/2021
Transcript of OVERVIEW OF AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES
OVERVIEW OF AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES
DAVID DIXON, SENIOR ANALYST – AUSTRALIA RENEWABLES
05/10/2021
Contents
Source: Rystad Energy
1) Australia’s utility scale renewable’s pipeline
2) An overview of the market build
3) Short term challenges
4) Medium term opportunities
The pipeline: Developers turn their attention to storage and electrolysers in 2021Australia Utility PV, wind, storage and H2 pipeline: 24/09/2021
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
345 GWAC
1163 Assets
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Hydrogen Electrolyzer
Lithium
Offshore wind
Pumped storage
GWAC
Operating
Construction
Financial Close
DA Approved
DA Application
Concept
The pipeline: Western Australia and Northern Territory remain export locationsAustralia Utility PV, wind, storage and H2 pipeline: 24/09/2021
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Western Australia
New South Wales
Queensland
Victoria
Northern Territory
South Australia
Tasmania
GWAC
Onshore wind
Solar PV
Hydrogen Electrolyzer
Lithium
Offshore wind
Pumped hydro
345 GWAC
1163 Assets
The build: Batteries begin to enter the mixHistoric construction start for utility PV and wind
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GW
ac
Construction Start Year
Lithium
Solar PV
Onshore wind
The build: Utility PV off to a flying start in 2021, wind still laggingHistoric construction start for utility PV and wind
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Onshore wind Utility PV
MW
AC
Construction start year
Western Australia
Victoria
Tasmania
South Australia
Queensland
Northern Territory
New South Wales
6 a
ssets
Transgrid network capacity for new connections, 2017-2021MWAC
Short term challenges: Grid lock!
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
Diminishing network
capacity
Average module price and installed capacityUSD/Wp, GWdc
Short term challenges: CAPEX increases
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
Diminishing network
capacity
CAPEX going up
$1.10
$0.80
$0.85
$0.75
$0.60
$0.40
$0.34
$0.24 $0.23 $0.20
$0.23
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
$-
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Glo
ba
l In
sta
lled
ca
pa
city (
GW
dc)
Ave
rage
mo
du
le p
rice
(U
SD
/Wp
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Installed Capacity
Module Price
Utility PV spot revenue by stateAUD/MWh
Short term challenges: Reduced revenue
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis
Diminishing network
capacity
CAPEX going up
Revenue going down
Utility wind spot revenue by stateAUD/MWh
$(50)
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
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0-1
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NSW QLD SA VIC
Callide explosionBushfires
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
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9
NSW QLD SA TAS VIC
Callide explosion
Bushfires
Medium term opportunities: Battery boom?
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis, *half hourly spread
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Sp
rea
d (
AU
D/M
Wh
)
Average spread* by year
NSW QLD SA TAS VIC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
AU
D/M
Wh
Hour of the day
Daily spot price example
Spread = Max – Min
Spread = 130 – 15
Spread = 115 AUD/MWh
LCOS – Utility Battery
Medium term opportunities: Transmission upgrades
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube, AEMO ISP, *3.5 BAUD for total Marinus link
ProjectEstimated Cost
MMAUD
FY
DeliveryCapacity Increase
SA System Strength 166 21/22Reduced curtailment of
wind
West VIC 370 24/25West Vic upgrade
2 x 750 MW
VNI Minor 68 22/23 170 MW: VIC to NSW
QNI Minor 223 21190 MW: QLD to NSW
150 MW: NSW to QLD
Energy Connect 1530 23/24 750 MW: SA <-> NSW
Humelink 2100 24/25 2000 MW (Snowy 2.0)
Central West REZ
(NSW)650 24/25 3000 MW
VNI West 1300-1900 27/28 1100-1900 MW
Marinus link phase 1 1750* 28/29 750 MW
1) The pipeline
• 50 GWAC / year
• Move to storage and wind
2) Market build
• 2021 a potential record year
• Wind yet to take off
• Size and scale
3) Short term challenges
• Diminishing network capacity
• CAPEX going up
• Revenue going down
4) Medium term opportunities
• Batteries
• Transmission
Conclusions
Source: Rystad Energy RenewableCube
Australia utility scale solar, wind, H2 electrolyser and storage assets
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